Intrinsic value of Textainer Group Holdings - TGH

Previous Close

$15.20

  Intrinsic Value

$4.82

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-68%

  Value-price divergence*

-58%

Previous close

$15.20

 
Intrinsic value

$4.82

 
Up/down potential

-68%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-58%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as TGH.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TGH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -8.46
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  498
  508
  520
  533
  548
  565
  583
  603
  624
  647
  672
  699
  727
  757
  789
  823
  860
  898
  938
  981
  1,026
  1,073
  1,124
  1,176
  1,232
  1,291
  1,353
  1,418
  1,486
  1,558
  1,634
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  310
  317
  325
  334
  344
  356
  368
  381
  395
  410
  426
  444
  462
  482
  502
  524
  548
  572
  598
  626
  655
  685
  718
  752
  787
  825
  865
  906
  950
  996
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  470
  310
  317
  325
  334
  344
  356
  368
  381
  395
  410
  426
  444
  462
  482
  502
  524
  548
  572
  598
  626
  655
  685
  718
  752
  787
  825
  865
  906
  950
  996
Operating income, $m
  28
  198
  203
  208
  214
  220
  227
  235
  243
  252
  262
  273
  284
  295
  308
  321
  335
  350
  366
  383
  400
  419
  438
  459
  481
  503
  527
  553
  580
  608
  637
EBITDA, $m
  269
  443
  453
  465
  478
  493
  509
  526
  545
  565
  587
  610
  635
  661
  689
  719
  750
  783
  819
  856
  895
  937
  981
  1,027
  1,075
  1,126
  1,180
  1,237
  1,297
  1,360
  1,426
Interest expense (income), $m
  84
  101
  103
  106
  109
  112
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
  270
  283
  296
  311
  326
Earnings before tax, $m
  -59
  97
  99
  102
  105
  108
  112
  116
  120
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  196
  205
  215
  225
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  297
  311
Tax expense, $m
  -3
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  46
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
Net income, $m
  -51
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  188
  197
  207
  217
  227

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  149
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,294
  4,233
  4,330
  4,442
  4,567
  4,705
  4,857
  5,022
  5,201
  5,394
  5,601
  5,823
  6,059
  6,311
  6,578
  6,862
  7,163
  7,481
  7,818
  8,173
  8,549
  8,945
  9,363
  9,803
  10,268
  10,756
  11,271
  11,813
  12,383
  12,982
  13,613
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,145
  4,233
  4,330
  4,442
  4,567
  4,705
  4,857
  5,022
  5,201
  5,394
  5,601
  5,823
  6,059
  6,311
  6,578
  6,862
  7,163
  7,481
  7,818
  8,173
  8,549
  8,945
  9,363
  9,803
  10,268
  10,756
  11,271
  11,813
  12,383
  12,982
  13,613
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
Average production assets, $m
  3,726
  3,801
  3,888
  3,988
  4,100
  4,224
  4,361
  4,509
  4,670
  4,843
  5,029
  5,228
  5,440
  5,666
  5,906
  6,161
  6,431
  6,717
  7,019
  7,338
  7,675
  8,031
  8,406
  8,802
  9,219
  9,657
  10,120
  10,606
  11,118
  11,656
  12,222
Working capital, $m
  58
  116
  119
  122
  125
  129
  133
  138
  143
  148
  154
  160
  167
  173
  181
  189
  197
  206
  215
  225
  235
  246
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
  340
  357
  374
Total debt, $m
  3,038
  2,952
  3,023
  3,104
  3,194
  3,295
  3,406
  3,526
  3,657
  3,797
  3,948
  4,109
  4,281
  4,464
  4,659
  4,865
  5,084
  5,316
  5,561
  5,820
  6,094
  6,382
  6,686
  7,007
  7,345
  7,701
  8,075
  8,470
  8,885
  9,321
  9,780
Total liabilities, $m
  3,168
  3,082
  3,153
  3,234
  3,324
  3,425
  3,536
  3,656
  3,787
  3,927
  4,078
  4,239
  4,411
  4,594
  4,789
  4,995
  5,214
  5,446
  5,691
  5,950
  6,224
  6,512
  6,816
  7,137
  7,475
  7,831
  8,205
  8,600
  9,015
  9,451
  9,910
Total equity, $m
  1,126
  1,151
  1,178
  1,208
  1,242
  1,280
  1,321
  1,366
  1,415
  1,467
  1,524
  1,584
  1,648
  1,717
  1,789
  1,866
  1,948
  2,035
  2,126
  2,223
  2,325
  2,433
  2,547
  2,667
  2,793
  2,926
  3,066
  3,213
  3,368
  3,531
  3,703
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,294
  4,233
  4,331
  4,442
  4,566
  4,705
  4,857
  5,022
  5,202
  5,394
  5,602
  5,823
  6,059
  6,311
  6,578
  6,861
  7,162
  7,481
  7,817
  8,173
  8,549
  8,945
  9,363
  9,804
  10,268
  10,757
  11,271
  11,813
  12,383
  12,982
  13,613
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.698
  2.560
  2.570
  2.570
  2.570
  2.570
  2.580
  2.580
  2.580
  2.590
  2.590
  2.590
  2.600
  2.600
  2.600
  2.610
  2.610
  2.610
  2.620
  2.620
  2.620
  2.620
  2.630
  2.630
  2.630
  2.630
  2.630
  2.640
  2.640
  2.640
  2.640
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.236
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -51
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  188
  197
  207
  217
  227
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  241
  245
  251
  257
  265
  273
  281
  291
  301
  312
  324
  337
  351
  366
  381
  397
  415
  433
  453
  473
  495
  518
  542
  568
  595
  623
  653
  684
  717
  752
  789
Funds from operations, $m
  275
  316
  323
  332
  341
  352
  363
  375
  389
  403
  419
  435
  453
  472
  492
  513
  535
  559
  584
  611
  639
  668
  699
  732
  767
  803
  841
  881
  924
  969
  1,015
Change in working capital, $m
  -11
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
Cash from operations, $m
  286
  314
  321
  329
  338
  348
  359
  371
  384
  398
  413
  429
  447
  465
  484
  505
  527
  550
  575
  601
  628
  657
  688
  720
  754
  789
  827
  867
  908
  952
  998
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -240
  -245
  -251
  -257
  -265
  -273
  -281
  -291
  -301
  -312
  -324
  -337
  -351
  -366
  -381
  -397
  -415
  -433
  -453
  -473
  -495
  -518
  -542
  -568
  -595
  -623
  -653
  -684
  -717
  -752
New CAPEX, $m
  -506
  -75
  -87
  -100
  -112
  -124
  -136
  -149
  -161
  -173
  -186
  -199
  -212
  -226
  -240
  -255
  -270
  -286
  -302
  -319
  -337
  -356
  -375
  -395
  -417
  -439
  -462
  -486
  -512
  -538
  -566
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -289
  -315
  -332
  -351
  -369
  -389
  -409
  -430
  -452
  -474
  -498
  -523
  -549
  -577
  -606
  -636
  -667
  -701
  -735
  -772
  -810
  -851
  -893
  -937
  -985
  -1,034
  -1,085
  -1,139
  -1,196
  -1,255
  -1,318
Free cash flow, $m
  -3
  -1
  -12
  -22
  -32
  -41
  -50
  -59
  -68
  -76
  -85
  -94
  -103
  -112
  -121
  -131
  -140
  -150
  -161
  -171
  -182
  -194
  -206
  -218
  -231
  -244
  -258
  -273
  -288
  -304
  -320
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  31
  63
  71
  81
  91
  101
  111
  120
  130
  140
  151
  161
  172
  183
  195
  207
  219
  232
  245
  259
  273
  288
  304
  321
  338
  356
  375
  394
  415
  437
  459
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  63
  71
  81
  91
  101
  111
  120
  130
  140
  151
  161
  172
  183
  195
  207
  219
  232
  245
  259
  273
  288
  304
  321
  338
  356
  375
  394
  415
  437
  459
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -3
  61
  59
  59
  59
  60
  61
  62
  63
  64
  65
  67
  69
  71
  73
  76
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  76
  -25
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  36
  32
  29
  25
  22
  19
  17
  14
  12
  9
  7
  5
  3
  1
  -1
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
Discount rate, %
 
  10.80
  11.34
  11.91
  12.50
  13.13
  13.78
  14.47
  15.20
  15.96
  16.75
  17.59
  18.47
  19.40
  20.37
  21.38
  22.45
  23.58
  24.75
  25.99
  27.29
  28.66
  30.09
  31.59
  33.17
  34.83
  36.57
  38.40
  40.32
  42.34
  44.45
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  33
  26
  21
  16
  12
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Textainer Group Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, engages in the purchase, ownership, management, leasing, and disposal of a fleet of intermodal containers worldwide. It operates through three segments: Container Ownership, Container Management, and Container Resale. The company owns and leases standard dry freight and special-purpose containers, as well as refrigerated containers. It also manages containers on behalf of affiliated and unaffiliated container investors, as well as provides acquisition, management, and disposal services. In addition, the company sells containers from its fleet, as well as purchases, leases, or resells containers from shipping line customers, container traders, and other sellers of containers. It operates a fleet of approximately 2.1 million containers, representing approximately 3.1 million twenty-foot equivalent units. The company serves shipping lines, freight forwarding companies, and the United States military. Textainer Group Holdings Limited was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Textainer Group Holdings (TGH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -16.9
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -5.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 251.6%
Total Debt to Equity 269.8%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Total Capital -1.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Equity -4.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 84.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 86.7%
EBITDA Margin 53.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.5%
Operating Margin 5.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31%
Pre-Tax Margin -11.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Net Profit Margin -10.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Effective Tax Rate 5.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Payout Ratio -56.9%

TGH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TGH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $498 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Textainer Group Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Textainer Group Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TGH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.8%, whose default value for TGH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Textainer Group Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Textainer Group Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TGH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 61%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TGH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Textainer Group Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Textainer Group Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TGH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TGH are equal to 748.2%.

Life of production assets of 15.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Textainer Group Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TGH is equal to 22.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1126 million for Textainer Group Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 58.457 million for Textainer Group Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Textainer Group Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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Stock chart of TGH Financial statements of TGH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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