Intrinsic value of Hanover Insurance Group - THG

Previous Close

$99.63

  Intrinsic Value

$152.93

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+53%

  Value-price divergence*

+6%

Previous close

$99.63

 
Intrinsic value

$152.93

 
Up/down potential

+53%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+6%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as THG.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of THG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.72
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  0
  5,073
  5,190
  5,324
  5,473
  5,639
  5,821
  6,020
  6,234
  6,465
  6,713
  6,979
  7,262
  7,564
  7,884
  8,224
  8,585
  8,966
  9,370
  9,796
  10,246
  10,721
  11,222
  11,750
  12,306
  12,892
  13,509
  14,158
  14,841
  15,560
  16,316
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,571
  4,676
  4,795
  4,930
  5,078
  5,242
  5,420
  5,612
  5,820
  6,042
  6,262
  6,516
  6,787
  7,074
  7,380
  7,703
  8,045
  8,407
  8,790
  9,194
  9,620
  10,069
  10,543
  11,042
  11,568
  12,121
  12,704
  13,317
  13,962
  14,640
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,727
  4,571
  4,676
  4,795
  4,930
  5,078
  5,242
  5,420
  5,612
  5,820
  6,042
  6,262
  6,516
  6,787
  7,074
  7,380
  7,703
  8,045
  8,407
  8,790
  9,194
  9,620
  10,069
  10,543
  11,042
  11,568
  12,121
  12,704
  13,317
  13,962
  14,640
Operating income, $m
  247
  503
  515
  528
  544
  561
  579
  600
  622
  646
  671
  717
  746
  777
  810
  845
  882
  921
  962
  1,006
  1,052
  1,101
  1,153
  1,207
  1,264
  1,324
  1,388
  1,454
  1,524
  1,598
  1,676
EBITDA, $m
  278
  521
  533
  547
  562
  579
  598
  618
  640
  664
  690
  717
  746
  777
  810
  845
  882
  921
  962
  1,006
  1,052
  1,101
  1,153
  1,207
  1,264
  1,324
  1,388
  1,454
  1,524
  1,598
  1,676
Interest expense (income), $m
  53
  53
  67
  85
  106
  129
  154
  182
  212
  245
  280
  318
  359
  402
  448
  497
  549
  604
  663
  725
  790
  859
  931
  1,008
  1,089
  1,174
  1,263
  1,358
  1,457
  1,561
  1,671
Earnings before tax, $m
  192
  450
  447
  443
  438
  432
  426
  418
  410
  401
  391
  399
  387
  375
  362
  347
  332
  317
  300
  282
  263
  243
  221
  199
  176
  151
  124
  97
  68
  37
  5
Tax expense, $m
  36
  121
  121
  120
  118
  117
  115
  113
  111
  108
  106
  108
  105
  101
  98
  94
  90
  85
  81
  76
  71
  66
  60
  54
  47
  41
  34
  26
  18
  10
  1
Net income, $m
  155
  328
  326
  323
  320
  316
  311
  305
  299
  293
  285
  291
  283
  274
  264
  254
  243
  231
  219
  206
  192
  177
  162
  145
  128
  110
  91
  71
  49
  27
  3

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  14,220
  14,496
  14,829
  15,210
  15,638
  16,112
  16,632
  17,199
  17,812
  18,472
  19,181
  19,940
  20,749
  21,611
  22,526
  23,498
  24,528
  25,618
  26,771
  27,989
  29,275
  30,632
  32,063
  33,571
  35,160
  36,834
  38,597
  40,452
  42,404
  44,457
  46,617
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  14,220
  14,496
  14,829
  15,210
  15,638
  16,112
  16,632
  17,199
  17,812
  18,472
  19,181
  19,940
  20,749
  21,611
  22,526
  23,498
  24,528
  25,618
  26,771
  27,989
  29,275
  30,632
  32,063
  33,571
  35,160
  36,834
  38,597
  40,452
  42,404
  44,457
  46,617
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  786
  1,006
  1,272
  1,577
  1,919
  2,298
  2,713
  3,166
  3,656
  4,184
  4,750
  5,356
  6,003
  6,691
  7,423
  8,199
  9,022
  9,893
  10,814
  11,787
  12,815
  13,899
  15,042
  16,247
  17,517
  18,855
  20,263
  21,745
  23,305
  24,945
  26,671
Total liabilities, $m
  11,363
  11,582
  11,848
  12,153
  12,495
  12,874
  13,289
  13,742
  14,232
  14,760
  15,326
  15,932
  16,579
  17,267
  17,999
  18,775
  19,598
  20,469
  21,390
  22,363
  23,391
  24,475
  25,618
  26,823
  28,093
  29,431
  30,839
  32,321
  33,881
  35,521
  37,247
Total equity, $m
  2,858
  2,914
  2,981
  3,057
  3,143
  3,239
  3,343
  3,457
  3,580
  3,713
  3,855
  4,008
  4,171
  4,344
  4,528
  4,723
  4,930
  5,149
  5,381
  5,626
  5,884
  6,157
  6,445
  6,748
  7,067
  7,404
  7,758
  8,131
  8,523
  8,936
  9,370
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  14,221
  14,496
  14,829
  15,210
  15,638
  16,113
  16,632
  17,199
  17,812
  18,473
  19,181
  19,940
  20,750
  21,611
  22,527
  23,498
  24,528
  25,618
  26,771
  27,989
  29,275
  30,632
  32,063
  33,571
  35,160
  36,835
  38,597
  40,452
  42,404
  44,457
  46,617
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.275
  0.350
  0.430
  0.520
  0.610
  0.710
  0.810
  0.920
  1.020
  1.130
  1.230
  1.340
  1.440
  1.540
  1.640
  1.740
  1.830
  1.920
  2.010
  2.100
  2.180
  2.260
  2.330
  2.410
  2.480
  2.550
  2.610
  2.670
  2.730
  2.790
  2.850
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  155
  328
  326
  323
  320
  316
  311
  305
  299
  293
  285
  291
  283
  274
  264
  254
  243
  231
  219
  206
  192
  177
  162
  145
  128
  110
  91
  71
  49
  27
  3
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  31
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  1,194
  347
  345
  342
  338
  334
  329
  324
  318
  311
  304
  291
  283
  274
  264
  254
  243
  231
  219
  206
  192
  177
  162
  145
  128
  110
  91
  71
  49
  27
  3
Change in working capital, $m
  456
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  738
  347
  345
  342
  338
  334
  329
  324
  318
  311
  304
  291
  283
  274
  264
  254
  243
  231
  219
  206
  192
  177
  162
  145
  128
  110
  91
  71
  49
  27
  3
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -495
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  243
  347
  345
  342
  338
  334
  329
  324
  318
  311
  304
  291
  283
  274
  264
  254
  243
  231
  219
  206
  192
  177
  162
  145
  128
  110
  91
  71
  49
  27
  3
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -105
  220
  266
  305
  342
  379
  416
  453
  490
  528
  566
  606
  647
  688
  732
  776
  823
  871
  921
  973
  1,028
  1,084
  1,143
  1,205
  1,270
  1,337
  1,408
  1,482
  1,560
  1,641
  1,726
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -89
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  13
  39
  67
  96
  126
  158
  191
  227
  263
  302
  343
  386
  431
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -215
  220
  266
  305
  342
  379
  416
  453
  490
  528
  566
  606
  647
  688
  732
  776
  823
  871
  934
  1,012
  1,095
  1,180
  1,269
  1,363
  1,461
  1,564
  1,671
  1,784
  1,903
  2,027
  2,157
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  24
  567
  611
  646
  680
  713
  745
  776
  808
  839
  870
  897
  929
  962
  996
  1,030
  1,066
  1,102
  1,153
  1,218
  1,286
  1,357
  1,431
  1,508
  1,589
  1,674
  1,762
  1,855
  1,952
  2,054
  2,160
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -14
  -56
  -67
  -77
  -86
  -95
  -105
  -114
  -123
  -133
  -142
  -152
  -163
  -173
  -184
  -195
  -207
  -219
  -232
  -245
  -258
  -273
  -288
  -303
  -319
  -336
  -354
  -373
  -392
  -413
  -434
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  511
  544
  570
  594
  618
  640
  662
  684
  706
  728
  745
  767
  789
  812
  835
  859
  883
  921
  973
  1,028
  1,084
  1,143
  1,205
  1,270
  1,337
  1,408
  1,482
  1,560
  1,641
  1,726
Discount rate, %
 
  5.20
  5.46
  5.73
  6.02
  6.32
  6.64
  6.97
  7.32
  7.68
  8.07
  8.47
  8.89
  9.34
  9.81
  10.30
  10.81
  11.35
  11.92
  12.51
  13.14
  13.80
  14.49
  15.21
  15.97
  16.77
  17.61
  18.49
  19.41
  20.38
  21.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  486
  489
  482
  470
  455
  435
  413
  389
  363
  335
  304
  276
  247
  219
  192
  166
  142
  121
  104
  87
  72
  58
  46
  36
  28
  21
  15
  11
  8
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.8
  99.3
  98.5
  97.5
  96.1
  94.6
  92.8
  90.8
  88.7
  86.4
  84.0
  81.5
  78.9

The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various property and casualty insurance products and services in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Commercial Lines, Personal Lines, Chaucer, and Other. The Commercial Lines segment offers commercial multiple peril, commercial automobile, workersÂ’ compensation, specialty property, inland marine, management and professional liability, and surety, as well as monoline general liability, umbrella, healthcare, and miscellaneous commercial property insurance products. The Personal Lines segment provides personal automobile and homeowners coverages, as well as other personal coverages, including personal inland marine, umbrella, fire, personal watercraft, earthquake, and other miscellaneous coverages. The Chaucer segment offers marine and aviation, property, energy, international liability, specialist coverages, and syndicate participations. The Other segment markets investment management and advisory services to institutions, pension funds, and other organizations. The company markets its products and services through a network of independent agents and brokers. The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 1852 and is headquartered in Worcester, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hanover Insurance Group (THG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.3
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -20%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 27.5%
Total Debt to Equity 27.5%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Total Capital 4.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Equity 5.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 5.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Operating Margin 5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Net Profit Margin 3.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Effective Tax Rate 18.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.9%
Payout Ratio 51.6%

THG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the THG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4974 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hanover Insurance Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Hanover Insurance Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our THG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.2%, whose default value for THG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hanover Insurance Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hanover Insurance Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of THG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for THG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.7% for Hanover Insurance Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hanover Insurance Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the THG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for THG are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hanover Insurance Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for THG is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2858 million for Hanover Insurance Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42.24 million for Hanover Insurance Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hanover Insurance Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ The Hanover Underwrites National Accountants E&O Program   [Aug-07-17 01:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Hanover Insurance posts 2Q profit   [Aug-03-17 12:28AM  Associated Press]
▶ The Hanover Enhances Education Advantage Product Suite   [Jul-10-17 11:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Forbes Honors The Hanover as a Top Employer   [May-12-17 11:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Hanover Insurance posts 1Q profit   [May-03-17 07:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ What's Your Stock's Price Target?   [Mar-28-17 06:16PM  Zacks]
▶ The Hanover Announces Senior Management Change   [Aug-10-16 04:22PM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of THG Financial statements of THG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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