Intrinsic value of Hanover Insurance Group - THG

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$85.99

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as THG.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of THG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.72
  2.80
  3.02
  3.22
  3.40
  3.56
  3.70
  3.83
  3.95
  4.05
  4.15
  4.23
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
Revenue, $m
  0
  5,113
  5,268
  5,437
  5,622
  5,822
  6,037
  6,269
  6,516
  6,780
  7,061
  7,360
  7,677
  8,014
  8,369
  8,746
  9,143
  9,563
  10,006
  10,474
  10,966
  11,485
  12,032
  12,607
  13,213
  13,851
  14,521
  15,227
  15,969
  16,749
  17,569
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,607
  4,745
  4,897
  5,063
  5,242
  5,436
  5,643
  5,865
  6,102
  6,354
  6,604
  6,889
  7,190
  7,510
  7,847
  8,204
  8,581
  8,979
  9,398
  9,840
  10,306
  10,796
  11,312
  11,856
  12,428
  13,030
  13,663
  14,328
  15,028
  15,764
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,727
  4,607
  4,745
  4,897
  5,063
  5,242
  5,436
  5,643
  5,865
  6,102
  6,354
  6,604
  6,889
  7,190
  7,510
  7,847
  8,204
  8,581
  8,979
  9,398
  9,840
  10,306
  10,796
  11,312
  11,856
  12,428
  13,030
  13,663
  14,328
  15,028
  15,764
Operating income, $m
  247
  507
  523
  540
  559
  580
  602
  625
  651
  678
  707
  756
  789
  823
  860
  898
  939
  982
  1,028
  1,076
  1,126
  1,180
  1,236
  1,295
  1,357
  1,423
  1,492
  1,564
  1,640
  1,720
  1,805
EBITDA, $m
  278
  525
  541
  559
  577
  598
  620
  644
  669
  696
  725
  756
  789
  823
  860
  898
  939
  982
  1,028
  1,076
  1,126
  1,180
  1,236
  1,295
  1,357
  1,423
  1,492
  1,564
  1,640
  1,720
  1,805
Interest expense (income), $m
  53
  53
  73
  97
  123
  151
  182
  215
  250
  288
  328
  371
  417
  466
  517
  572
  629
  690
  754
  822
  893
  969
  1,048
  1,132
  1,220
  1,312
  1,410
  1,512
  1,620
  1,734
  1,853
Earnings before tax, $m
  192
  454
  449
  443
  436
  428
  420
  411
  401
  390
  378
  385
  371
  357
  343
  327
  310
  292
  274
  254
  233
  211
  188
  163
  138
  110
  82
  52
  20
  -13
  -48
Tax expense, $m
  36
  123
  121
  120
  118
  116
  113
  111
  108
  105
  102
  104
  100
  97
  93
  88
  84
  79
  74
  69
  63
  57
  51
  44
  37
  30
  22
  14
  5
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  155
  331
  328
  323
  318
  313
  306
  300
  292
  285
  276
  281
  271
  261
  250
  239
  226
  213
  200
  185
  170
  154
  137
  119
  100
  81
  60
  38
  15
  -13
  -48

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  14,220
  14,609
  15,051
  15,535
  16,062
  16,634
  17,249
  17,910
  18,617
  19,372
  20,175
  21,029
  21,935
  22,896
  23,913
  24,988
  26,124
  27,324
  28,590
  29,925
  31,332
  32,815
  34,377
  36,021
  37,752
  39,573
  41,490
  43,505
  45,625
  47,853
  50,196
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  14,220
  14,609
  15,051
  15,535
  16,062
  16,634
  17,249
  17,910
  18,617
  19,372
  20,175
  21,029
  21,935
  22,896
  23,913
  24,988
  26,124
  27,324
  28,590
  29,925
  31,332
  32,815
  34,377
  36,021
  37,752
  39,573
  41,490
  43,505
  45,625
  47,853
  50,196
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  786
  1,097
  1,449
  1,836
  2,258
  2,714
  3,206
  3,734
  4,299
  4,902
  5,544
  6,226
  6,950
  7,718
  8,530
  9,389
  10,297
  11,256
  12,267
  13,334
  14,459
  15,643
  16,891
  18,205
  19,588
  21,043
  22,574
  24,185
  25,878
  27,659
  29,531
Total liabilities, $m
  11,363
  11,673
  12,025
  12,412
  12,834
  13,290
  13,782
  14,310
  14,875
  15,478
  16,120
  16,802
  17,526
  18,294
  19,106
  19,965
  20,873
  21,832
  22,843
  23,910
  25,035
  26,219
  27,467
  28,781
  30,164
  31,619
  33,150
  34,761
  36,454
  38,235
  40,107
Total equity, $m
  2,858
  2,936
  3,025
  3,123
  3,229
  3,343
  3,467
  3,600
  3,742
  3,894
  4,055
  4,227
  4,409
  4,602
  4,806
  5,023
  5,251
  5,492
  5,747
  6,015
  6,298
  6,596
  6,910
  7,240
  7,588
  7,954
  8,339
  8,745
  9,171
  9,619
  10,089
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  14,221
  14,609
  15,050
  15,535
  16,063
  16,633
  17,249
  17,910
  18,617
  19,372
  20,175
  21,029
  21,935
  22,896
  23,912
  24,988
  26,124
  27,324
  28,590
  29,925
  31,333
  32,815
  34,377
  36,021
  37,752
  39,573
  41,489
  43,506
  45,625
  47,854
  50,196
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.275
  0.370
  0.480
  0.590
  0.700
  0.810
  0.920
  1.040
  1.150
  1.260
  1.370
  1.470
  1.580
  1.680
  1.770
  1.870
  1.960
  2.050
  2.130
  2.220
  2.300
  2.370
  2.440
  2.510
  2.580
  2.650
  2.710
  2.770
  2.820
  2.880
  2.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201
  0.201

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  155
  331
  328
  323
  318
  313
  306
  300
  292
  285
  276
  281
  271
  261
  250
  239
  226
  213
  200
  185
  170
  154
  137
  119
  100
  81
  60
  38
  15
  -13
  -48
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  31
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  1,194
  350
  346
  342
  337
  331
  325
  318
  311
  303
  295
  281
  271
  261
  250
  239
  226
  213
  200
  185
  170
  154
  137
  119
  100
  81
  60
  38
  15
  -13
  -48
Change in working capital, $m
  456
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  738
  350
  346
  342
  337
  331
  325
  318
  311
  303
  295
  281
  271
  261
  250
  239
  226
  213
  200
  185
  170
  154
  137
  119
  100
  81
  60
  38
  15
  -13
  -48
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -495
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  243
  350
  346
  342
  337
  331
  325
  318
  311
  303
  295
  281
  271
  261
  250
  239
  226
  213
  200
  185
  170
  154
  137
  119
  100
  81
  60
  38
  15
  -13
  -48
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -105
  311
  353
  387
  422
  456
  492
  528
  565
  603
  642
  682
  724
  767
  812
  859
  908
  959
  1,011
  1,067
  1,124
  1,185
  1,248
  1,314
  1,383
  1,455
  1,531
  1,610
  1,694
  1,781
  1,872
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -89
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -215
  311
  353
  387
  422
  456
  492
  528
  565
  603
  642
  682
  724
  767
  812
  859
  908
  959
  1,011
  1,067
  1,124
  1,185
  1,248
  1,314
  1,383
  1,455
  1,531
  1,610
  1,694
  1,781
  1,872
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  24
  661
  699
  729
  758
  788
  817
  846
  876
  906
  937
  963
  995
  1,028
  1,062
  1,098
  1,134
  1,172
  1,211
  1,252
  1,295
  1,339
  1,385
  1,433
  1,483
  1,536
  1,591
  1,648
  1,708
  1,767
  1,824
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -14
  -78
  -89
  -97
  -106
  -115
  -124
  -133
  -142
  -152
  -161
  -172
  -182
  -193
  -204
  -216
  -228
  -241
  -254
  -268
  -283
  -298
  -314
  -331
  -348
  -366
  -385
  -405
  -426
  -448
  -471
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  582
  610
  631
  652
  673
  693
  713
  734
  754
  775
  791
  813
  835
  858
  882
  906
  931
  957
  984
  1,012
  1,041
  1,071
  1,103
  1,135
  1,170
  1,206
  1,243
  1,282
  1,319
  1,353
Discount rate, %
 
  5.20
  5.46
  5.73
  6.02
  6.32
  6.64
  6.97
  7.32
  7.68
  8.07
  8.47
  8.89
  9.34
  9.81
  10.30
  10.81
  11.35
  11.92
  12.51
  13.14
  13.80
  14.49
  15.21
  15.97
  16.77
  17.61
  18.49
  19.41
  20.38
  21.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  554
  549
  534
  516
  495
  471
  445
  417
  387
  357
  324
  292
  262
  232
  203
  175
  150
  126
  105
  86
  69
  55
  42
  32
  24
  18
  13
  9
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various property and casualty insurance products and services in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Commercial Lines, Personal Lines, Chaucer, and Other. The Commercial Lines segment offers commercial multiple peril, commercial automobile, workersÂ’ compensation, specialty property, inland marine, management and professional liability, and surety, as well as monoline general liability, umbrella, healthcare, and miscellaneous commercial property insurance products. The Personal Lines segment provides personal automobile and homeowners coverages, as well as other personal coverages, including personal inland marine, umbrella, fire, personal watercraft, earthquake, and other miscellaneous coverages. The Chaucer segment offers marine and aviation, property, energy, international liability, specialist coverages, and syndicate participations. The Other segment markets investment management and advisory services to institutions, pension funds, and other organizations. The company markets its products and services through a network of independent agents and brokers. The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 1852 and is headquartered in Worcester, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hanover Insurance Group (THG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.5
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -20%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 27.5%
Total Debt to Equity 27.5%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Total Capital 4.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Equity 5.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 5.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Operating Margin 5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Net Profit Margin 3.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Effective Tax Rate 18.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.9%
Payout Ratio 51.6%

THG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the THG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4974 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hanover Insurance Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Hanover Insurance Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our THG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.2%, whose default value for THG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hanover Insurance Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hanover Insurance Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of THG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for THG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.7% for Hanover Insurance Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hanover Insurance Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the THG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for THG are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hanover Insurance Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for THG is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2858 million for Hanover Insurance Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42.24 million for Hanover Insurance Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hanover Insurance Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.6 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Forbes Honors The Hanover as a Top Employer   [May-12-17 11:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Hanover Insurance posts 1Q profit   [May-03-17 07:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ What's Your Stock's Price Target?   [Mar-28-17 06:16PM  Zacks]
▶ The Hanover Announces Senior Management Change   [Aug-10-16 04:22PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Hanover taps Aetna executive as new CEO   [May-20-16 04:00PM  at bizjournals.com]
Stock chart of THG Financial statements of THG Annual reports of THG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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