Intrinsic value of Gentherm - THRM

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$37.10

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$37.10

 
Intrinsic value

$73.05

 
Up/down potential

+97%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of THRM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.24
  15.30
  14.27
  13.34
  12.51
  11.76
  11.08
  10.47
  9.93
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.39
  6.25
  6.13
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
Revenue, $m
  918
  1,058
  1,209
  1,371
  1,542
  1,724
  1,915
  2,115
  2,325
  2,545
  2,773
  3,012
  3,260
  3,517
  3,785
  4,064
  4,353
  4,654
  4,967
  5,292
  5,630
  5,982
  6,348
  6,730
  7,128
  7,543
  7,976
  8,428
  8,900
  9,393
  9,908
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  896
  1,023
  1,159
  1,303
  1,455
  1,616
  1,785
  1,962
  2,146
  2,339
  2,534
  2,742
  2,959
  3,185
  3,419
  3,662
  3,915
  4,179
  4,452
  4,737
  5,033
  5,341
  5,662
  5,997
  6,346
  6,711
  7,091
  7,488
  7,902
  8,336
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  811
  896
  1,023
  1,159
  1,303
  1,455
  1,616
  1,785
  1,962
  2,146
  2,339
  2,534
  2,742
  2,959
  3,185
  3,419
  3,662
  3,915
  4,179
  4,452
  4,737
  5,033
  5,341
  5,662
  5,997
  6,346
  6,711
  7,091
  7,488
  7,902
  8,336
Operating income, $m
  106
  163
  187
  212
  240
  268
  299
  330
  364
  399
  435
  478
  517
  558
  601
  645
  691
  738
  788
  840
  893
  949
  1,007
  1,068
  1,131
  1,197
  1,266
  1,337
  1,412
  1,490
  1,572
EBITDA, $m
  144
  204
  233
  265
  298
  333
  369
  408
  449
  491
  535
  581
  629
  679
  730
  784
  840
  898
  958
  1,021
  1,086
  1,154
  1,225
  1,299
  1,375
  1,455
  1,539
  1,626
  1,717
  1,812
  1,912
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  6
  8
  10
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  65
  69
  74
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  115
  122
  129
Earnings before tax, $m
  111
  157
  179
  202
  227
  253
  281
  310
  340
  372
  405
  445
  481
  518
  557
  597
  639
  683
  728
  775
  824
  875
  928
  983
  1,041
  1,101
  1,163
  1,229
  1,297
  1,368
  1,443
Tax expense, $m
  34
  42
  48
  55
  61
  68
  76
  84
  92
  100
  109
  120
  130
  140
  150
  161
  173
  184
  197
  209
  222
  236
  250
  265
  281
  297
  314
  332
  350
  369
  390
Net income, $m
  77
  114
  130
  148
  166
  185
  205
  226
  248
  272
  296
  325
  351
  378
  407
  436
  466
  498
  531
  566
  601
  639
  677
  718
  760
  803
  849
  897
  947
  999
  1,053

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  177
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  843
  768
  878
  995
  1,119
  1,251
  1,389
  1,535
  1,687
  1,847
  2,013
  2,186
  2,365
  2,553
  2,747
  2,949
  3,159
  3,377
  3,604
  3,840
  4,086
  4,341
  4,607
  4,884
  5,173
  5,474
  5,788
  6,116
  6,458
  6,816
  7,190
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  666
  768
  878
  995
  1,119
  1,251
  1,389
  1,535
  1,687
  1,847
  2,013
  2,186
  2,365
  2,553
  2,747
  2,949
  3,159
  3,377
  3,604
  3,840
  4,086
  4,341
  4,607
  4,884
  5,173
  5,474
  5,788
  6,116
  6,458
  6,816
  7,190
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.378
  1.378
  1.377
  1.378
  1.378
  1.378
  1.379
  1.378
  1.378
  1.378
  1.378
  1.378
  1.378
  1.378
  1.378
  1.378
  1.378
  1.378
  1.378
  1.378
  1.378
  1.378
  1.378
  1.378
  1.378
  1.378
  1.378
  1.378
  1.378
  1.378
  1.378
Average production assets, $m
  199
  229
  261
  296
  333
  372
  414
  457
  502
  550
  599
  651
  704
  760
  818
  878
  940
  1,005
  1,073
  1,143
  1,216
  1,292
  1,371
  1,454
  1,540
  1,629
  1,723
  1,820
  1,922
  2,029
  2,140
Working capital, $m
  295
  139
  158
  180
  202
  226
  251
  277
  305
  333
  363
  395
  427
  461
  496
  532
  570
  610
  651
  693
  738
  784
  832
  882
  934
  988
  1,045
  1,104
  1,166
  1,230
  1,298
Total debt, $m
  172
  228
  291
  358
  429
  505
  584
  667
  754
  845
  940
  1,039
  1,142
  1,249
  1,360
  1,476
  1,596
  1,721
  1,851
  1,986
  2,126
  2,272
  2,424
  2,583
  2,748
  2,920
  3,100
  3,287
  3,483
  3,688
  3,902
Total liabilities, $m
  383
  439
  502
  569
  640
  716
  795
  878
  965
  1,056
  1,151
  1,250
  1,353
  1,460
  1,571
  1,687
  1,807
  1,932
  2,062
  2,197
  2,337
  2,483
  2,635
  2,794
  2,959
  3,131
  3,311
  3,498
  3,694
  3,899
  4,113
Total equity, $m
  460
  329
  376
  426
  479
  535
  595
  657
  722
  790
  861
  935
  1,012
  1,092
  1,176
  1,262
  1,352
  1,445
  1,543
  1,644
  1,749
  1,858
  1,972
  2,090
  2,214
  2,343
  2,477
  2,618
  2,764
  2,917
  3,077
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  843
  768
  878
  995
  1,119
  1,251
  1,390
  1,535
  1,687
  1,846
  2,012
  2,185
  2,365
  2,552
  2,747
  2,949
  3,159
  3,377
  3,605
  3,841
  4,086
  4,341
  4,607
  4,884
  5,173
  5,474
  5,788
  6,116
  6,458
  6,816
  7,190
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.374
  0.690
  0.770
  0.840
  0.900
  0.940
  0.980
  1.020
  1.040
  1.070
  1.090
  1.110
  1.130
  1.140
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.270
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.425
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  77
  114
  130
  148
  166
  185
  205
  226
  248
  272
  296
  325
  351
  378
  407
  436
  466
  498
  531
  566
  601
  639
  677
  718
  760
  803
  849
  897
  947
  999
  1,053
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  38
  41
  47
  52
  58
  64
  71
  78
  85
  92
  100
  103
  112
  121
  130
  139
  149
  160
  170
  181
  193
  205
  218
  231
  244
  259
  273
  289
  305
  322
  340
Funds from operations, $m
  101
  156
  177
  200
  224
  249
  276
  304
  333
  364
  396
  428
  463
  499
  536
  575
  616
  658
  702
  747
  794
  844
  895
  948
  1,004
  1,062
  1,123
  1,186
  1,252
  1,321
  1,393
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  67
Cash from operations, $m
  108
  169
  157
  179
  201
  225
  251
  278
  306
  335
  366
  397
  430
  465
  501
  539
  578
  618
  661
  704
  750
  798
  847
  898
  952
  1,008
  1,066
  1,127
  1,190
  1,256
  1,326
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -66
  -73
  -80
  -87
  -95
  -103
  -112
  -121
  -130
  -139
  -149
  -160
  -170
  -181
  -193
  -205
  -218
  -231
  -244
  -259
  -273
  -289
  -305
  -322
New CAPEX, $m
  -66
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -144
  -62
  -69
  -76
  -84
  -92
  -100
  -109
  -118
  -127
  -136
  -146
  -157
  -168
  -179
  -190
  -202
  -214
  -228
  -240
  -254
  -269
  -284
  -300
  -317
  -334
  -353
  -371
  -391
  -411
  -433
Free cash flow, $m
  -36
  107
  88
  102
  117
  133
  151
  169
  188
  208
  229
  250
  273
  298
  323
  349
  376
  404
  434
  464
  496
  528
  563
  598
  635
  674
  714
  756
  799
  845
  892
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  73
  58
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  80
  58
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  33
  166
  151
  169
  188
  209
  230
  252
  275
  299
  324
  349
  376
  405
  434
  464
  496
  529
  563
  599
  636
  675
  715
  757
  800
  846
  894
  943
  995
  1,049
  1,106
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -76
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -153
  -160
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  175
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  297
  104
  119
  135
  152
  171
  190
  210
  231
  253
  275
  299
  325
  351
  378
  406
  436
  466
  498
  531
  565
  601
  638
  677
  717
  759
  803
  849
  896
  946
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  285
  95
  104
  111
  118
  124
  128
  131
  133
  133
  131
  128
  123
  118
  111
  103
  95
  86
  77
  67
  58
  50
  42
  34
  28
  22
  17
  13
  10
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Gentherm Incorporated designs, develops, and manufactures thermal management technologies in North America, Europe, and Asia. The company operates through Automotive and Industrial segments. The Automotive segment offers automotive seat comfort systems, including seat heaters, variable temperature climate control seats that are designed to provide individualized thermal comfort to automobile passengers; and integrated electronic components, such as blowers and electronic control units. This segment also provides specialized automotive cable system products, including ready-made wire harnesses and related wiring products; automotive steering wheel heaters, heated door and armrests, heated and cooled cup holders, and thermal storage bins; and non-automotive products comprising heated and cooled mattress and furniture. This segment serves light vehicle original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), commercial vehicle OEMs, and automotive seat manufacturers. The Industrial segment offers remote power generation systems, patient temperature management systems, and environmental testing equipment and services. The company was formerly known as Amerigon Incorporated and changed its name to Gentherm Incorporated in September 2012. Gentherm Incorporated was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Northville, Michigan.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Gentherm (THRM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.6
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 32.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 20%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 89
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 37%
Total Debt to Equity 37.4%
Interest Coverage 38
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Return On Total Capital 13.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Return On Equity 18.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.3%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.4%
EBITDA Margin 16.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
Operating Margin 11.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Net Profit Margin 8.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Effective Tax Rate 30.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

THRM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the THRM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $918 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Gentherm. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Gentherm. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our THRM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for THRM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Gentherm, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Gentherm.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of THRM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for THRM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Gentherm.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Gentherm. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the THRM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for THRM are equal to 21.6%.

Life of production assets of 6.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Gentherm operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for THRM is equal to 13.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $460 million for Gentherm - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 36.927 million for Gentherm is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Gentherm at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 8 Undervalued Stocks With Growing Book Values   [May-03-17 03:23PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Gentherm, Inc. Value Analysis (NASDAQ:THRM) : May 1, 2017   [May-01-17 05:24PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Gentherm tops Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-27-17 08:26AM  Associated Press]
▶ Gentherm tops 4Q profit forecasts   [06:30AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Gentherm Inc (THRM) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-13-16 04:07AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Mairs & Power Comments on Gentherm   [Nov-23-16 03:21PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Gentherm Resolves U.S. Patent Infringement Lawsuit   [Jun-10-16 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Gentherm Wins First Electronics Component Contract   [Apr-27-16 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 3 Cheap Growth Stocks You Can Buy Right Now   [10:02AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Gentherm Announces Two New Board Of Director Nominees   [Mar-30-16 06:28AM  at noodls]
▶ Gentherm To Present At The 28th Annual ROTH Conference   [Mar-07-16 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of THRM Financial statements of THRM Annual reports of THRM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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