Intrinsic value of Interface - TILE

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$18.75

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$18.75

 
Intrinsic value

$18.60

 
Up/down potential

-1%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TILE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.29
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  959
  978
  1,001
  1,026
  1,055
  1,087
  1,122
  1,161
  1,202
  1,247
  1,294
  1,346
  1,400
  1,458
  1,520
  1,586
  1,655
  1,729
  1,807
  1,889
  1,975
  2,067
  2,164
  2,265
  2,373
  2,486
  2,605
  2,730
  2,861
  3,000
  3,146
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  318
  325
  333
  342
  353
  364
  376
  389
  403
  419
  429
  446
  465
  484
  505
  527
  551
  576
  602
  629
  659
  689
  722
  756
  792
  830
  870
  912
  956
  1,002
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  590
  605
  620
  636
  652
  668
  685
  702
  719
  737
  756
  775
  794
  814
  834
  855
  876
  898
  921
  944
  967
  992
  1,016
  1,042
  1,068
  1,095
  1,122
  1,150
  1,179
  1,208
Total operating expenses, $m
  874
  908
  930
  953
  978
  1,005
  1,032
  1,061
  1,091
  1,122
  1,156
  1,185
  1,221
  1,259
  1,298
  1,339
  1,382
  1,427
  1,474
  1,523
  1,573
  1,626
  1,681
  1,738
  1,798
  1,860
  1,925
  1,992
  2,062
  2,135
  2,210
Operating income, $m
  85
  70
  71
  73
  77
  83
  91
  100
  111
  124
  139
  161
  179
  200
  222
  246
  273
  301
  333
  366
  402
  441
  483
  527
  575
  626
  680
  738
  800
  865
  935
EBITDA, $m
  116
  100
  102
  105
  110
  116
  125
  135
  147
  161
  177
  195
  214
  236
  260
  286
  314
  345
  378
  413
  451
  493
  537
  584
  634
  688
  745
  806
  871
  940
  1,014
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
Earnings before tax, $m
  79
  61
  61
  63
  67
  72
  79
  88
  99
  111
  125
  146
  164
  183
  204
  227
  253
  280
  310
  342
  377
  414
  454
  497
  543
  592
  644
  700
  760
  823
  890
Tax expense, $m
  25
  16
  17
  17
  18
  20
  21
  24
  27
  30
  34
  39
  44
  49
  55
  61
  68
  76
  84
  92
  102
  112
  123
  134
  147
  160
  174
  189
  205
  222
  240
Net income, $m
  54
  45
  45
  46
  49
  53
  58
  64
  72
  81
  91
  107
  119
  134
  149
  166
  184
  205
  226
  250
  275
  302
  331
  363
  396
  432
  470
  511
  554
  601
  650

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  166
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  840
  687
  703
  721
  742
  764
  789
  816
  845
  876
  910
  946
  984
  1,025
  1,068
  1,114
  1,163
  1,215
  1,270
  1,327
  1,388
  1,453
  1,520
  1,592
  1,667
  1,747
  1,830
  1,918
  2,011
  2,108
  2,211
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  674
  687
  703
  721
  742
  764
  789
  816
  845
  876
  910
  946
  984
  1,025
  1,068
  1,114
  1,163
  1,215
  1,270
  1,327
  1,388
  1,453
  1,520
  1,592
  1,667
  1,747
  1,830
  1,918
  2,011
  2,108
  2,211
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.423
  1.424
  1.424
  1.423
  1.422
  1.423
  1.422
  1.423
  1.422
  1.424
  1.422
  1.423
  1.423
  1.422
  1.423
  1.424
  1.423
  1.423
  1.423
  1.424
  1.423
  1.423
  1.424
  1.423
  1.424
  1.423
  1.423
  1.423
  1.423
  1.423
  1.423
Average production assets, $m
  208
  212
  217
  223
  229
  236
  244
  252
  261
  270
  281
  292
  304
  316
  330
  344
  359
  375
  392
  410
  429
  449
  470
  492
  515
  539
  565
  592
  621
  651
  683
Working capital, $m
  322
  174
  178
  183
  188
  194
  200
  207
  214
  222
  230
  240
  249
  260
  271
  282
  295
  308
  322
  336
  352
  368
  385
  403
  422
  442
  464
  486
  509
  534
  560
Total debt, $m
  270
  265
  276
  289
  303
  320
  337
  357
  377
  400
  424
  450
  477
  507
  538
  571
  606
  643
  683
  724
  768
  814
  863
  914
  968
  1,025
  1,085
  1,148
  1,215
  1,285
  1,358
Total liabilities, $m
  499
  494
  505
  518
  532
  549
  566
  586
  606
  629
  653
  679
  706
  736
  767
  800
  835
  872
  912
  953
  997
  1,043
  1,092
  1,143
  1,197
  1,254
  1,314
  1,377
  1,444
  1,514
  1,587
Total equity, $m
  341
  194
  198
  203
  209
  215
  222
  230
  238
  247
  257
  267
  277
  289
  301
  314
  328
  343
  358
  374
  391
  410
  429
  449
  470
  493
  516
  541
  567
  595
  623
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  840
  688
  703
  721
  741
  764
  788
  816
  844
  876
  910
  946
  983
  1,025
  1,068
  1,114
  1,163
  1,215
  1,270
  1,327
  1,388
  1,453
  1,521
  1,592
  1,667
  1,747
  1,830
  1,918
  2,011
  2,109
  2,210
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.792
  1.360
  1.390
  1.420
  1.450
  1.480
  1.520
  1.550
  1.580
  1.620
  1.650
  1.690
  1.720
  1.750
  1.790
  1.820
  1.850
  1.880
  1.910
  1.930
  1.960
  1.990
  2.010
  2.040
  2.060
  2.080
  2.100
  2.120
  2.140
  2.160
  2.180
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.260
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  54
  45
  45
  46
  49
  53
  58
  64
  72
  81
  91
  107
  119
  134
  149
  166
  184
  205
  226
  250
  275
  302
  331
  363
  396
  432
  470
  511
  554
  601
  650
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  31
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
Funds from operations, $m
  95
  75
  76
  78
  81
  86
  92
  99
  108
  118
  129
  140
  154
  170
  187
  206
  226
  248
  271
  297
  324
  354
  385
  419
  455
  494
  535
  579
  626
  676
  728
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
Cash from operations, $m
  93
  69
  72
  73
  76
  80
  86
  93
  101
  110
  121
  131
  145
  160
  176
  194
  213
  235
  258
  282
  309
  338
  368
  401
  436
  474
  514
  557
  602
  651
  702
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
New CAPEX, $m
  -28
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -107
Free cash flow, $m
  67
  40
  43
  43
  44
  47
  51
  56
  63
  70
  79
  88
  99
  112
  126
  142
  159
  177
  198
  219
  243
  268
  296
  325
  357
  390
  426
  465
  506
  549
  596
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  57
  10
  11
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  39
  10
  11
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  104
  50
  54
  56
  59
  63
  69
  76
  84
  93
  103
  114
  127
  141
  157
  175
  194
  214
  237
  261
  287
  315
  344
  376
  411
  447
  486
  528
  572
  619
  669
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  1
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  151
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  197
  49
  51
  53
  57
  62
  68
  75
  84
  94
  103
  116
  130
  145
  162
  180
  200
  221
  245
  270
  296
  325
  356
  389
  425
  463
  503
  546
  592
  641
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  189
  45
  44
  44
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  49
  49
  49
  49
  48
  46
  43
  41
  38
  34
  31
  27
  23
  20
  17
  13
  11
  8
  6
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Interface, Inc. designs, produces, and sells modular carpet products primarily in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific. It offers modular carpets under the Interface and FLOR brands; and carpet tiles under the GlasBacRE brand name for use in commercial interiors, including offices, healthcare facilities, airports, educational and other institutions, hospitality spaces, and retail facilities, as well as residential interiors. The company also provides an adapted version of its carpet tile for the healthcare facilities market; and two-meter roll goods that are structure-backed for use in education, healthcare, and government markets, as well as carpet replacement, installation, and maintenance services. In addition, it offers proprietary antimicrobial chemical compound for interior finishes under the Intersept trademark; TacTiles carpet tile installation system; raised/access flooring products under the Intercell brand; and turnkey project management services for national accounts and other customers through its InterfaceSERVICES business, as well as sells traditional adhesives and products for carpet installation and maintenance. The company sells its products directly to end-users; and to architects, engineers, interior designers, contracting firms, and other specifiers through independent contractors or distributors, as well as sells its FLOR branded products through catalogs, Internet, and retail stores. It operates 20 stores comprising 19 stores in the United States and 1 store in Canada under the FLOR brand name; and has product showrooms or design studios in United States, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Denmark, England, France, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, India, Australia, Norway, the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand, and China. The company was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Interface (TILE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.3
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 3.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 3.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -21.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 11
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 74.8%
Total Debt to Equity 79.2%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Return On Total Capital 9.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Return On Equity 15.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 38.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.9%
EBITDA Margin 12.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Operating Margin 8.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Net Profit Margin 5.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Effective Tax Rate 31.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.4%
Payout Ratio 25.9%

TILE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TILE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $959 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Interface. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Interface. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TILE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TILE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Interface, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Interface.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TILE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 32.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $576 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TILE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Interface.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Interface. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TILE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TILE are equal to 21.7%.

Life of production assets of 8.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Interface operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TILE is equal to 17.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $341 million for Interface - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 65.617 million for Interface is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Interface at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ [$$] Dominus Reaps Five Times Its Money on Bentley Mills Sale to Lone Star   [Feb-09-17 01:55PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Interface Announces Restructuring Plan   [04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Here is What Hedge Funds Think About Interface, Inc. (TILE)   [Nov-29-16 05:11PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Interface Earnings: Picking Up the Pieces   [Oct-27-16 12:06PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Interface moving HQ to Midtown   [Sep-22-16 11:07AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ 3 Stocks That Could Double Your Money   [Aug-21-16 08:38AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for August 18th   [Aug-18-16 08:29AM  Zacks]
▶ Interface Earnings: Margins Over Matter   [Jul-27-16 06:16PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Why Interface Inc. Stock Dropped Today   [Jun-24-16 12:10PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of TILE Financial statements of TILE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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