Intrinsic value of Team - TISI

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$32.20

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$32.20

 
Intrinsic value

$8.57

 
Up/down potential

-73%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TISI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  109.27
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,197
  583
  597
  612
  629
  649
  669
  692
  717
  744
  772
  803
  835
  870
  907
  946
  987
  1,031
  1,078
  1,127
  1,178
  1,233
  1,291
  1,351
  1,415
  1,483
  1,553
  1,628
  1,707
  1,789
  1,876
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  477
  487
  499
  512
  527
  543
  561
  580
  600
  623
  620
  646
  672
  701
  731
  763
  797
  833
  871
  911
  953
  998
  1,045
  1,094
  1,146
  1,201
  1,259
  1,319
  1,383
  1,451
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  89
  91
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
  136
  139
  143
  146
  150
  154
  157
  161
  165
  169
  174
  178
  182
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,200
  566
  578
  593
  608
  625
  644
  664
  686
  709
  734
  734
  763
  792
  824
  857
  892
  929
  969
  1,010
  1,054
  1,099
  1,148
  1,199
  1,251
  1,307
  1,366
  1,428
  1,493
  1,561
  1,633
Operating income, $m
  -3
  18
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  68
  73
  77
  83
  89
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  134
  143
  153
  164
  175
  187
  200
  214
  228
  243
EBITDA, $m
  46
  53
  54
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  104
  111
  118
  126
  135
  144
  153
  164
  175
  187
  199
  212
  226
  241
  257
  273
Interest expense (income), $m
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
Earnings before tax, $m
  -16
  5
  6
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  21
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  72
  78
  84
  91
  98
  105
  113
  121
  130
  140
  150
  161
  173
  185
  198
Tax expense, $m
  -3
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
Net income, $m
  -13
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  37
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  71
  77
  82
  89
  95
  102
  110
  118
  126
  135
  145

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  46
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,147
  769
  786
  807
  829
  854
  882
  912
  945
  980
  1,017
  1,057
  1,100
  1,146
  1,195
  1,246
  1,301
  1,359
  1,420
  1,484
  1,552
  1,624
  1,700
  1,780
  1,865
  1,953
  2,047
  2,145
  2,249
  2,358
  2,472
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,101
  769
  786
  807
  829
  854
  882
  912
  945
  980
  1,017
  1,057
  1,100
  1,146
  1,195
  1,246
  1,301
  1,359
  1,420
  1,484
  1,552
  1,624
  1,700
  1,780
  1,865
  1,953
  2,047
  2,145
  2,249
  2,358
  2,472
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.087
  0.758
  0.760
  0.758
  0.759
  0.760
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.760
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
Average production assets, $m
  302
  174
  178
  183
  188
  194
  200
  207
  214
  222
  231
  240
  250
  260
  271
  283
  295
  308
  322
  337
  352
  369
  386
  404
  423
  443
  464
  487
  510
  535
  561
Working capital, $m
  253
  204
  209
  214
  220
  227
  234
  242
  251
  260
  270
  281
  292
  304
  317
  331
  346
  361
  377
  394
  412
  432
  452
  473
  495
  519
  544
  570
  597
  626
  657
Total debt, $m
  369
  364
  375
  386
  400
  414
  430
  448
  467
  487
  509
  532
  557
  584
  612
  642
  674
  708
  743
  781
  821
  862
  907
  953
  1,002
  1,054
  1,108
  1,165
  1,226
  1,289
  1,356
Total liabilities, $m
  612
  447
  458
  469
  483
  497
  513
  531
  550
  570
  592
  615
  640
  667
  695
  725
  757
  791
  826
  864
  904
  945
  990
  1,036
  1,085
  1,137
  1,191
  1,248
  1,309
  1,372
  1,439
Total equity, $m
  536
  321
  329
  337
  347
  357
  369
  381
  395
  409
  425
  442
  460
  479
  499
  521
  544
  568
  593
  620
  649
  679
  711
  744
  779
  816
  856
  897
  940
  985
  1,033
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,148
  768
  787
  806
  830
  854
  882
  912
  945
  979
  1,017
  1,057
  1,100
  1,146
  1,194
  1,246
  1,301
  1,359
  1,419
  1,484
  1,553
  1,624
  1,701
  1,780
  1,864
  1,953
  2,047
  2,145
  2,249
  2,357
  2,472
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.688
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
  1.290
  1.290
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.310
  1.310
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.445
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -13
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  37
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  71
  77
  82
  89
  95
  102
  110
  118
  126
  135
  145
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  49
  35
  35
  36
  36
  36
  36
  37
  37
  38
  38
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
Funds from operations, $m
  111
  39
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  50
  53
  56
  60
  64
  69
  74
  79
  84
  90
  96
  103
  110
  118
  126
  135
  144
  154
  164
  175
Change in working capital, $m
  31
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
Cash from operations, $m
  80
  88
  35
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  39
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
  89
  96
  103
  110
  118
  126
  135
  144
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
New CAPEX, $m
  -46
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -71
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
Free cash flow, $m
  9
  75
  21
  21
  20
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  46
  50
  55
  60
  65
  70
  76
  83
  90
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -4
  8
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -6
  8
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  84
  32
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  58
  63
  68
  73
  78
  84
  90
  97
  104
  111
  119
  128
  137
  146
  156
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -198
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  100
  24
  24
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  69
  74
  80
  87
  93
  101
  108
Discount rate, %
 
  8.50
  8.93
  9.37
  9.84
  10.33
  10.85
  11.39
  11.96
  12.56
  13.19
  13.85
  14.54
  15.26
  16.03
  16.83
  17.67
  18.55
  19.48
  20.46
  21.48
  22.55
  23.68
  24.86
  26.11
  27.41
  28.78
  30.22
  31.73
  33.32
  34.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  92
  20
  18
  17
  15
  13
  12
  11
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Team, Inc. provides specialty industrial services in the United States, Canada, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Inspection and Heat Treating Services (IHT); Mechanical Services (MS); and Quest Integrity. The IHT segment offers non-destructive evaluation and testing, radiographic and ultrasonic testing, magnetic particle and liquid penetrant inspection, positive material identification, electromagnetic and eddy current testing, and alternating current field measurement services. It also provides long-range guided ultrasonic, phased array ultrasonic testing, tank inspection and management programs, rope access, mechanical integrity, and field heat treating services. The MS segment offers on-stream and turnaround/project related services, such as leak repair, fugitive emissions control, hot tapping, field machining and technical bolting, valve repair, heat exchanger and maintenance, isolation and test plug, valve insertion, and project services. The Quest Integrity segment provides furnace tube inspection system, in-line inspection services, pipeline integrity management services, and engineering assessment services. The company serves petrochemical, refining, power, pipeline, steel, pulp, and paper industries; and municipalities, shipbuilding, original equipment manufacturers, distributors, and engineering and construction firms. Team, Inc. was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Team (TISI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -73.8
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12
Price to Free Cash Flow 28.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 109.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 76.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 64.7%
Total Debt to Equity 68.8%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Total Capital -1.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Return On Equity -3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 27.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.8%
EBITDA Margin 3.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Operating Margin -0.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -1.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Net Profit Margin -1.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Effective Tax Rate 18.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

TISI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TISI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $572 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Team. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Team. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TISI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.5%, whose default value for TISI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Team, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Team.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TISI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $87 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TISI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Team.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Team. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TISI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TISI are equal to 29.9%.

Life of production assets of 18.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Team operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TISI is equal to 35%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $338 million for Team - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.197 million for Team is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Team at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Team, Inc. : May 26, 2017   [May-26-17 01:28PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Team, Inc. : May 16, 2017   [May-16-17 01:01PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Team reports 1Q loss   [May-09-17 07:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ Team, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:TISI) : April 28, 2017   [Apr-28-17 05:18PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Team, Inc. : April 10, 2017   [Apr-10-17 01:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Team, Inc. : March 27, 2017   [Mar-27-17 04:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Team reports 4Q loss   [Mar-07-17 05:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ Team, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:TISI) : January 11, 2017   [Jan-11-17 11:43AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Should You Buy Team, Inc. (TISI)?   [Dec-12-16 05:38PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ The Prudent Speculator's Undervalued Favorites   [Aug-31-16 05:41PM  at Forbes]
▶ New Dropbox Productivity Features Released Today   [Jun-22-16 09:00AM  at Forbes]
▶ Houston industrial services merger likely to close soon   [Feb-26-16 01:05PM  at bizjournals.com]
Stock chart of TISI Financial statements of TISI Annual reports of TISI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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