Intrinsic value of Transmontaigne Partners - TLP

Previous Close

$42.75

  Intrinsic Value

$5.79

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-86%

  Value-price divergence*

-17%

Previous close

$42.75

 
Intrinsic value

$5.79

 
Up/down potential

-86%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-17%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TLP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.84
  9.80
  9.32
  8.89
  8.50
  8.15
  7.83
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.67
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
Revenue, $m
  165
  181
  198
  216
  234
  253
  273
  293
  315
  337
  360
  384
  409
  435
  462
  491
  520
  551
  583
  616
  651
  687
  725
  765
  806
  850
  895
  942
  992
  1,044
  1,099
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  122
  133
  145
  157
  170
  183
  197
  211
  226
  242
  257
  273
  291
  309
  328
  347
  368
  389
  412
  435
  459
  484
  511
  539
  568
  598
  630
  663
  698
  734
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  112
  122
  133
  145
  157
  170
  183
  197
  211
  226
  242
  257
  273
  291
  309
  328
  347
  368
  389
  412
  435
  459
  484
  511
  539
  568
  598
  630
  663
  698
  734
Operating income, $m
  53
  59
  65
  71
  77
  83
  90
  97
  104
  111
  119
  128
  136
  144
  153
  163
  173
  183
  193
  204
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
  282
  297
  313
  329
  347
  365
EBITDA, $m
  85
  95
  104
  113
  122
  132
  143
  153
  165
  176
  188
  201
  214
  228
  242
  256
  272
  288
  304
  322
  340
  359
  379
  400
  421
  444
  468
  493
  519
  546
  574
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
Earnings before tax, $m
  44
  49
  54
  58
  63
  68
  74
  79
  85
  91
  97
  104
  111
  118
  125
  133
  140
  149
  157
  166
  175
  185
  195
  206
  217
  228
  241
  253
  267
  281
  295
Tax expense, $m
  0
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
Net income, $m
  44
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  102
  108
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
  215

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  690
  758
  829
  902
  979
  1,059
  1,142
  1,228
  1,318
  1,411
  1,507
  1,608
  1,713
  1,822
  1,935
  2,053
  2,176
  2,304
  2,437
  2,577
  2,722
  2,875
  3,033
  3,199
  3,373
  3,554
  3,744
  3,943
  4,151
  4,369
  4,598
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  689
  758
  829
  902
  979
  1,059
  1,142
  1,228
  1,318
  1,411
  1,507
  1,608
  1,713
  1,822
  1,935
  2,053
  2,176
  2,304
  2,437
  2,577
  2,722
  2,875
  3,033
  3,199
  3,373
  3,554
  3,744
  3,943
  4,151
  4,369
  4,598
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
Average production assets, $m
  403
  442
  484
  527
  571
  618
  666
  717
  769
  823
  880
  939
  1,000
  1,063
  1,129
  1,198
  1,270
  1,345
  1,423
  1,504
  1,589
  1,678
  1,770
  1,867
  1,969
  2,075
  2,185
  2,301
  2,423
  2,550
  2,683
Working capital, $m
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Total debt, $m
  292
  324
  356
  390
  425
  462
  500
  540
  581
  624
  668
  715
  763
  813
  865
  919
  976
  1,035
  1,096
  1,160
  1,227
  1,297
  1,370
  1,447
  1,527
  1,610
  1,697
  1,789
  1,885
  1,985
  2,090
Total liabilities, $m
  317
  349
  381
  415
  450
  487
  525
  565
  606
  649
  693
  740
  788
  838
  890
  944
  1,001
  1,060
  1,121
  1,185
  1,252
  1,322
  1,395
  1,472
  1,552
  1,635
  1,722
  1,814
  1,910
  2,010
  2,115
Total equity, $m
  373
  409
  447
  487
  529
  572
  617
  663
  711
  762
  814
  868
  925
  984
  1,045
  1,109
  1,175
  1,244
  1,316
  1,392
  1,470
  1,552
  1,638
  1,728
  1,821
  1,919
  2,022
  2,129
  2,242
  2,359
  2,483
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  690
  758
  828
  902
  979
  1,059
  1,142
  1,228
  1,317
  1,411
  1,507
  1,608
  1,713
  1,822
  1,935
  2,053
  2,176
  2,304
  2,437
  2,577
  2,722
  2,874
  3,033
  3,200
  3,373
  3,554
  3,744
  3,943
  4,152
  4,369
  4,598
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.783
  0.790
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  44
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  102
  108
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
  215
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  32
  35
  39
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  70
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
  162
  171
  180
  189
  199
  210
Funds from operations, $m
  70
  71
  78
  85
  92
  99
  107
  115
  123
  131
  140
  149
  159
  169
  179
  190
  202
  214
  226
  239
  252
  266
  281
  296
  312
  329
  346
  365
  384
  404
  425
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  79
  71
  78
  85
  92
  99
  107
  115
  123
  132
  141
  150
  159
  169
  180
  191
  202
  214
  226
  239
  253
  267
  281
  297
  313
  330
  347
  366
  385
  405
  426
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -31
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -199
New CAPEX, $m
  -55
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -69
  -70
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -92
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -128
  -134
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -260
  -273
  -287
  -301
  -316
  -332
Free cash flow, $m
  10
  1
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  84
  88
  94
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  44
  32
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  43
  33
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  53
  34
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  69
  73
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  153
  162
  170
  179
  189
  199
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  11
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -3
  -3
  -2
  0
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
Discount rate, %
 
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.12
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.82
  25.01
  26.26
  27.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -2
  -3
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8

TransMontaigne Partners L.P. provides integrated terminaling, storage, transportation, and related services. The company offers its services to customers engaged in the trading, distribution, and marketing of light and heavy refined petroleum products, crude oil, chemicals, fertilizers, and other liquid products. It operates 7.1 million barrel terminal facility on the Houston Ship Channel; 8 refined product terminals in Florida with approximately 6.9 million barrels of aggregate active storage capacity; and a 67-mile interstate refined products pipeline between Missouri and Arkansas, as well as 2 refined product terminals in Missouri and Arkansas with an aggregate active storage capacity of approximately 421,000 barrels. The company also operates 1 crude oil terminal in Cushing with an aggregate active storage capacity of approximately 1.0 million barrels; 1 refined product terminal located in Oklahoma City with aggregate active storage capacity of approximately 0.2 million barrels; 1 refined product terminal located in Brownsville with an aggregate active storage capacity of approximately 0.9 million barrels; and a 16-mile LPG pipeline from its Brownsville facility to the U.S. border, as well as a 174-mile bi-directional refined products and Ella-Brownsville pipelines. In addition, it operates light petroleum products terminal located in Brownsville with an aggregate active storage capacity of approximately 1.5 million barrels; 12 refined product terminals located along the Mississippi and Ohio rivers with approximately 2.7 million barrels of aggregate active storage capacity; and a dock facility in Baton Rouge, as well as 22 refined product terminals located along the Colonial and Plantation pipelines with an aggregate active storage capacity of approximately 10.0 million barrels. TransMontaigne GP L.L.C. serves as the general partner of the company. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Transmontaigne Partners (TLP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.7
Price to Sales 4.2
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 28.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 89.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 31.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 78.3%
Total Debt to Equity 78.3%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Total Capital 6.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Return On Equity 11.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 58.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 57.4%
EBITDA Margin 50.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.5%
Operating Margin 32.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 26.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.2%
Net Profit Margin 26.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 120.5%

TLP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TLP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $165 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Transmontaigne Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Transmontaigne Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TLP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.7%, whose default value for TLP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Transmontaigne Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Transmontaigne Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TLP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 67.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TLP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Transmontaigne Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Transmontaigne Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TLP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TLP are equal to 244.2%.

Life of production assets of 12.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Transmontaigne Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TLP is equal to -1.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $373 million for Transmontaigne Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 15.756 million for Transmontaigne Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Transmontaigne Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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