Intrinsic value of TimkenSteel - TMST

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$15.84

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$15.84

 
Intrinsic value

$3.23

 
Up/down potential

-80%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TMST stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -21.34
  3.90
  4.01
  4.11
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.47
  4.53
  4.57
  4.62
  4.65
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.83
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
Revenue, $m
  870
  904
  940
  979
  1,020
  1,064
  1,110
  1,159
  1,211
  1,265
  1,323
  1,384
  1,449
  1,517
  1,588
  1,664
  1,743
  1,827
  1,915
  2,007
  2,105
  2,207
  2,315
  2,428
  2,547
  2,672
  2,804
  2,942
  3,087
  3,240
  3,400
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  666
  693
  721
  752
  784
  818
  854
  892
  933
  975
  1,020
  1,068
  1,118
  1,171
  1,226
  1,285
  1,346
  1,411
  1,479
  1,551
  1,627
  1,706
  1,790
  1,877
  1,970
  2,066
  2,168
  2,275
  2,388
  2,506
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  375
  385
  394
  404
  414
  424
  435
  446
  457
  469
  480
  492
  505
  517
  530
  543
  557
  571
  585
  600
  615
  630
  646
  662
  679
  696
  713
  731
  749
  768
Total operating expenses, $m
  998
  1,041
  1,078
  1,115
  1,156
  1,198
  1,242
  1,289
  1,338
  1,390
  1,444
  1,500
  1,560
  1,623
  1,688
  1,756
  1,828
  1,903
  1,982
  2,064
  2,151
  2,242
  2,336
  2,436
  2,539
  2,649
  2,762
  2,881
  3,006
  3,137
  3,274
Operating income, $m
  -129
  -137
  -137
  -137
  -136
  -134
  -133
  -130
  -128
  -124
  -120
  -116
  -111
  -106
  -99
  -92
  -85
  -76
  -67
  -57
  -46
  -34
  -21
  -7
  8
  24
  42
  61
  81
  103
  127
EBITDA, $m
  -54
  -60
  -57
  -53
  -48
  -43
  -37
  -31
  -24
  -16
  -7
  3
  13
  25
  37
  50
  65
  80
  97
  115
  134
  155
  177
  201
  227
  254
  283
  313
  346
  381
  418
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
Earnings before tax, $m
  -142
  -142
  -143
  -143
  -143
  -142
  -141
  -140
  -138
  -136
  -133
  -130
  -126
  -121
  -117
  -111
  -105
  -98
  -90
  -82
  -73
  -63
  -52
  -40
  -27
  -12
  3
  19
  37
  56
  77
Tax expense, $m
  -36
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  5
  10
  15
  21
Net income, $m
  -106
  -142
  -143
  -143
  -143
  -142
  -141
  -140
  -138
  -136
  -133
  -130
  -126
  -121
  -117
  -111
  -105
  -98
  -90
  -82
  -73
  -63
  -52
  -40
  -27
  -12
  2
  14
  27
  41
  56

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,070
  1,085
  1,129
  1,175
  1,224
  1,277
  1,332
  1,391
  1,453
  1,519
  1,589
  1,662
  1,739
  1,821
  1,907
  1,997
  2,093
  2,193
  2,299
  2,410
  2,527
  2,650
  2,779
  2,915
  3,058
  3,208
  3,366
  3,532
  3,706
  3,889
  4,082
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,044
  1,085
  1,129
  1,175
  1,224
  1,277
  1,332
  1,391
  1,453
  1,519
  1,589
  1,662
  1,739
  1,821
  1,907
  1,997
  2,093
  2,193
  2,299
  2,410
  2,527
  2,650
  2,779
  2,915
  3,058
  3,208
  3,366
  3,532
  3,706
  3,889
  4,082
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
Average production assets, $m
  784
  814
  847
  882
  919
  958
  1,000
  1,044
  1,091
  1,140
  1,192
  1,247
  1,305
  1,367
  1,431
  1,499
  1,571
  1,646
  1,725
  1,809
  1,896
  1,989
  2,086
  2,188
  2,295
  2,408
  2,526
  2,651
  2,782
  2,919
  3,064
Working capital, $m
  159
  138
  144
  150
  156
  163
  170
  177
  185
  194
  202
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
  322
  338
  354
  372
  390
  409
  429
  450
  472
  496
  520
Total debt, $m
  137
  156
  175
  196
  219
  242
  268
  294
  322
  352
  384
  417
  452
  489
  528
  569
  612
  657
  705
  756
  809
  864
  923
  984
  1,049
  1,117
  1,189
  1,264
  1,343
  1,426
  1,513
Total liabilities, $m
  473
  492
  511
  532
  555
  578
  604
  630
  658
  688
  720
  753
  788
  825
  864
  905
  948
  993
  1,041
  1,092
  1,145
  1,200
  1,259
  1,320
  1,385
  1,453
  1,525
  1,600
  1,679
  1,762
  1,849
Total equity, $m
  597
  594
  617
  643
  670
  698
  729
  761
  795
  831
  869
  909
  951
  996
  1,043
  1,093
  1,145
  1,200
  1,257
  1,318
  1,382
  1,449
  1,520
  1,595
  1,673
  1,755
  1,841
  1,932
  2,027
  2,128
  2,233
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,070
  1,086
  1,128
  1,175
  1,225
  1,276
  1,333
  1,391
  1,453
  1,519
  1,589
  1,662
  1,739
  1,821
  1,907
  1,998
  2,093
  2,193
  2,298
  2,410
  2,527
  2,649
  2,779
  2,915
  3,058
  3,208
  3,366
  3,532
  3,706
  3,890
  4,082
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.229
  0.260
  0.280
  0.310
  0.330
  0.350
  0.370
  0.390
  0.410
  0.420
  0.440
  0.460
  0.470
  0.490
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -106
  -142
  -143
  -143
  -143
  -142
  -141
  -140
  -138
  -136
  -133
  -130
  -126
  -121
  -117
  -111
  -105
  -98
  -90
  -82
  -73
  -63
  -52
  -40
  -27
  -12
  2
  14
  27
  41
  56
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  181
  189
  199
  208
  219
  229
  241
  252
  265
  278
  292
Funds from operations, $m
  113
  -65
  -62
  -59
  -55
  -51
  -46
  -40
  -34
  -27
  -19
  -11
  -1
  9
  20
  32
  45
  59
  74
  90
  108
  127
  147
  169
  192
  217
  243
  267
  292
  319
  348
Change in working capital, $m
  39
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
Cash from operations, $m
  74
  -87
  -68
  -65
  -61
  -57
  -53
  -48
  -42
  -35
  -28
  -20
  -11
  -2
  9
  20
  33
  46
  61
  76
  93
  111
  131
  152
  174
  198
  223
  245
  270
  296
  323
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -189
  -199
  -208
  -219
  -229
  -241
  -252
  -265
  -278
New CAPEX, $m
  -43
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -43
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -195
  -204
  -215
  -225
  -236
  -247
  -260
  -273
  -286
  -301
  -315
  -332
  -347
  -366
  -383
  -402
  -422
Free cash flow, $m
  31
  -192
  -178
  -180
  -182
  -184
  -186
  -187
  -188
  -189
  -189
  -189
  -188
  -187
  -186
  -184
  -182
  -179
  -175
  -171
  -167
  -162
  -156
  -149
  -142
  -134
  -125
  -120
  -114
  -107
  -99
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -44
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  170
  182
  185
  187
  189
  191
  193
  194
  195
  195
  196
  195
  195
  194
  192
  191
  188
  185
  182
  178
  173
  168
  162
  155
  148
  140
  135
  130
  124
  117
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -49
  189
  202
  206
  209
  213
  216
  220
  222
  225
  226
  229
  230
  232
  233
  233
  234
  233
  233
  232
  231
  229
  227
  224
  220
  216
  212
  210
  209
  207
  204
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -17
  -173
  -158
  -159
  -160
  -161
  -161
  -160
  -160
  -159
  -157
  -155
  -153
  -150
  -147
  -143
  -138
  -133
  -128
  -121
  -114
  -106
  -97
  -88
  -77
  -66
  -54
  -45
  -35
  -24
  -12
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  85
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  5.10
  5.36
  5.62
  5.90
  6.20
  6.51
  6.83
  7.18
  7.54
  7.91
  8.31
  8.72
  9.16
  9.62
  10.10
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.27
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.66
  16.45
  17.27
  18.13
  19.04
  19.99
  20.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  80.5
  64.4
  51.8
  41.8
  34.0
  27.8
  22.9
  18.9
  15.8
  13.2
  11.2
  9.5
  8.2
  7.0
  6.1
  5.4
  4.7
  4.2
  3.8
  3.4
  3.1
  2.8
  2.6
  2.4
  2.2
  2.1
  2.0
  1.9
  1.8
  1.7

TimkenSteel Corporation manufactures and sells alloy steel, and carbon and micro-alloy steel products worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Industrial & Mobile and Energy & Distribution. It offers air-melted alloy steel bars, tubes, and precision components; and value-added services, such as thermal treatment and machining. The company’s products are used in engines, transmission and driveline components, hydraulic system components, military ordnance, mining and construction drilling applications, and other types of equipment, as well as in offshore and land-based drilling rig activities. It sells its products and services to the oil and gas, automotive, industrial equipment, mining, construction, rail, aerospace and defense, heavy truck, agriculture, and power generation sectors. TimkenSteel Corporation is headquartered in Canton, Ohio.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  TimkenSteel (TMST)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -6.6
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -21.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -44.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -25.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 22.9%
Total Debt to Equity 22.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -9.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.1%
Return On Total Capital -13.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.3%
Return On Equity -16.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.6%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -3.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
EBITDA Margin -7.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0%
Operating Margin -14.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -16.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.2%
Net Profit Margin -12.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.5%
Effective Tax Rate 25.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

TMST stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TMST stock intrinsic value calculation we used $870 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by TimkenSteel. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of TimkenSteel. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TMST stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.1%, whose default value for TMST is calculated based on our internal credit rating of TimkenSteel, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of TimkenSteel.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TMST stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 73.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $366 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TMST stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for TimkenSteel.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for TimkenSteel. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TMST stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TMST are equal to 90.1%.

Life of production assets of 10.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in TimkenSteel operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TMST is equal to 15.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $597 million for TimkenSteel - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 46.229 million for TimkenSteel is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of TimkenSteel at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Timken Steel Has Been Building on Breakout   [Feb-22-17 01:16PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Here is What Hedge Funds Think About Timkensteel Corp (TMST)   [Dec-13-16 05:46AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Why TimkenSteel Corporation Stock Fell By 33% in May   [Jun-08-16 05:28PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Why Shares of TimkenSteel Corp. Plunged 17% Today   [May-25-16 12:37PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ TimkenSteel Prices Offering of Convertible Senior Notes   [May-24-16 08:30PM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of TMST Financial statements of TMST
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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