Intrinsic value of TeleNav - TNAV

Previous Close

$4.70

  Intrinsic Value

$0.46

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

Previous close

$4.70

 
Intrinsic value

$0.46

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of TNAV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -7.10
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  170
  173
  177
  182
  187
  193
  199
  206
  213
  221
  229
  239
  248
  259
  269
  281
  293
  306
  320
  335
  350
  366
  384
  402
  421
  441
  462
  484
  507
  532
  558
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  49
  51
  52
  54
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  182
  187
  192
  196
  201
  206
  212
  217
  222
  228
  234
  239
  245
  252
  258
  264
  271
  278
  285
  292
  299
  306
  314
  322
  330
  338
  347
  355
  364
  373
Total operating expenses, $m
  217
  224
  230
  236
  241
  247
  253
  261
  268
  274
  282
  287
  294
  303
  312
  321
  329
  339
  349
  360
  370
  381
  391
  403
  416
  428
  441
  455
  468
  482
  497
Operating income, $m
  -47
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -55
  -55
  -54
  -54
  -53
  -48
  -46
  -44
  -42
  -39
  -36
  -33
  -29
  -24
  -19
  -14
  -8
  -2
  5
  12
  21
  29
  39
  49
  60
EBITDA, $m
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -50
  -51
  -51
  -51
  -51
  -50
  -49
  -47
  -46
  -44
  -41
  -38
  -35
  -32
  -28
  -23
  -18
  -13
  -7
  -1
  6
  14
  22
  31
  41
  51
  62
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
Earnings before tax, $m
  -46
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -54
  -55
  -55
  -56
  -55
  -55
  -54
  -50
  -48
  -47
  -45
  -42
  -39
  -36
  -33
  -29
  -24
  -20
  -14
  -8
  -2
  5
  13
  21
  30
  39
  49
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  3
  6
  8
  11
  13
Net income, $m
  -47
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -54
  -55
  -55
  -56
  -55
  -55
  -54
  -50
  -48
  -47
  -45
  -42
  -39
  -36
  -33
  -29
  -24
  -20
  -14
  -8
  -2
  4
  9
  15
  22
  28
  36

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  98
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  260
  165
  169
  173
  178
  184
  190
  196
  203
  211
  219
  227
  237
  246
  257
  268
  280
  292
  305
  319
  334
  349
  366
  383
  401
  420
  440
  461
  484
  507
  532
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  162
  165
  169
  173
  178
  184
  190
  196
  203
  211
  219
  227
  237
  246
  257
  268
  280
  292
  305
  319
  334
  349
  366
  383
  401
  420
  440
  461
  484
  507
  532
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.049
  1.048
  1.047
  1.052
  1.051
  1.049
  1.047
  1.051
  1.049
  1.047
  1.046
  1.053
  1.046
  1.053
  1.047
  1.049
  1.046
  1.048
  1.049
  1.050
  1.048
  1.049
  1.049
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.048
  1.049
  1.049
Average production assets, $m
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Working capital, $m
  97
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Total debt, $m
  0
  1
  4
  8
  12
  17
  23
  29
  35
  42
  49
  57
  65
  74
  83
  93
  104
  115
  127
  139
  152
  166
  181
  197
  213
  230
  248
  267
  287
  308
  330
Total liabilities, $m
  147
  149
  152
  156
  160
  165
  171
  177
  183
  190
  197
  205
  213
  222
  231
  241
  252
  263
  275
  287
  300
  314
  329
  345
  361
  378
  396
  415
  435
  456
  478
Total equity, $m
  112
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  259
  166
  169
  173
  178
  183
  190
  197
  203
  211
  219
  228
  237
  247
  257
  268
  280
  292
  306
  319
  333
  349
  366
  383
  401
  420
  440
  461
  483
  507
  531
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.050
  0.250
  0.470
  0.700
  0.940
  1.200
  1.450
  1.710
  1.970
  2.230
  2.490
  2.750
  2.990
  3.240
  3.480
  3.710
  3.930
  4.150
  4.360
  4.570
  4.760
  4.950
  5.130
  5.310
  5.480
  5.640
  5.790
  5.940
  6.080
  6.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.086
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -47
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -54
  -55
  -55
  -56
  -55
  -55
  -54
  -50
  -48
  -47
  -45
  -42
  -39
  -36
  -33
  -29
  -24
  -20
  -14
  -8
  -2
  4
  9
  15
  22
  28
  36
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
Funds from operations, $m
  16
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -51
  -52
  -52
  -52
  -51
  -50
  -49
  -48
  -46
  -44
  -41
  -39
  -35
  -32
  -28
  -23
  -18
  -13
  -7
  -1
  5
  11
  17
  23
  30
  38
Change in working capital, $m
  25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  -9
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -51
  -52
  -52
  -52
  -51
  -50
  -49
  -48
  -46
  -44
  -41
  -38
  -35
  -32
  -28
  -23
  -18
  -13
  -7
  0
  5
  11
  17
  23
  30
  38
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  9
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
Free cash flow, $m
  0
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -52
  -53
  -53
  -53
  -52
  -51
  -50
  -49
  -47
  -45
  -43
  -40
  -37
  -33
  -29
  -25
  -20
  -15
  -9
  -3
  3
  8
  14
  21
  28
  35
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  1
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  53
  53
  54
  55
  56
  56
  56
  56
  56
  55
  51
  49
  48
  46
  43
  41
  38
  34
  30
  26
  21
  16
  10
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  54
  56
  58
  59
  61
  61
  62
  62
  63
  62
  59
  57
  57
  55
  53
  52
  49
  46
  43
  39
  35
  31
  25
  20
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  27
  33
  41
  49
  57
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  38
  -53
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -56
  -56
  -56
  -56
  -55
  -51
  -49
  -48
  -46
  -43
  -41
  -38
  -34
  -30
  -26
  -21
  -16
  -10
  -4
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  98
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  51
  -46
  -47
  -47
  -47
  -47
  -47
  -46
  -45
  -44
  -42
  -40
  -38
  -36
  -33
  -29
  -26
  -21
  -17
  -12
  -6
  0
  7
  14
  18
  25
  31
  39
  46
  55
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  49
  -42
  -41
  -39
  -37
  -34
  -32
  -29
  -26
  -23
  -20
  -17
  -15
  -12
  -10
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  32.8
  12.1
  4.5
  1.6
  0.6
  0.2
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

TeleNav, Inc. (Telenav) is a provider of location-based platform services. The Company's services consist of its automotive and mobile navigation platform and its advertising delivery platform. The Company operates through three segments: automotive, advertising and mobile navigation. The automotive segment provides its map and navigation platform to auto manufacturers and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) for distribution with their vehicles. The advertising segment provides interactive mobile advertisements on behalf of its advertising clients to consumers based on the location of the user and other targeting capabilities. The mobile navigation segment provides its map and navigation platform to end users through mobile devices. The Company's auto and mobile navigation platform allows it to deliver location-based services to auto manufacturers, developers and end users through various distribution channels, including wireless carriers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  TeleNav (TNAV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.4
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -23
Price to Free Cash Flow -20.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -75%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -19.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.1%
Return On Total Capital -35.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.3%
Return On Equity -35.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.3%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 45.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.1%
EBITDA Margin -25.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.7%
Operating Margin -27.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -27.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.9%
Net Profit Margin -27.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.4%
Effective Tax Rate -2.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

TNAV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TNAV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $170 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by TeleNav. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of TeleNav. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TNAV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TNAV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of TeleNav, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of TeleNav.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TNAV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 24.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $178 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TNAV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for TeleNav.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for TeleNav. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TNAV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TNAV are equal to 4.1%.

Life of production assets of 12.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in TeleNav operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TNAV is equal to -0.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $112 million for TeleNav - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 44.3 million for TeleNav is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of TeleNav at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to TeleNav, Inc. : December 14, 2017   [Dec-14-17 02:12PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Value-Adding Growth Stocks To Buy Now   [Nov-05-17 11:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Telenav reports 1Q loss   [Nov-02-17 06:02PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to TeleNav, Inc. : October 27, 2017   [Oct-27-17 11:18AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to TeleNav, Inc. : October 5, 2017   [Oct-05-17 11:22AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to TeleNav, Inc. : September 6, 2017   [Sep-05-17 10:09PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Telenav Reaches Agreement with Nokomis Capital   [Aug-24-17 05:21PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Telenav reports 4Q loss   [Aug-04-17 08:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to TeleNav, Inc. : July 25, 2017   [Jul-25-17 01:40PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to TeleNav, Inc. : July 14, 2017   [Jul-14-17 05:11PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Telenav to Present at B. Riley Conference   [May-18-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to TeleNav, Inc. : May 12, 2017   [May-12-17 04:34PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Telenav reports 3Q loss   [May-03-17 05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Telenav Reports Third Quarter Fiscal 2017 Financial Results   [May-02-17 04:03PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Telenav reports 2Q loss   [05:34PM  Associated Press]
▶ 4 Companies That Beat Friday the 13th   [Jan-13-17 11:50AM  24/7 Wall St.]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Telenav Inc (TNAV)?   [Dec-13-16 09:00AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Telenav Reaches Agreement with Nokomis Capital   [Aug-24-16 05:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Telenav reports 4Q loss   [07:37PM  AP]
Financial statements of TNAV
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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