Intrinsic value of Terra Nitrogen - TNH

Previous Close

$76.05

  Intrinsic Value

$159.46

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+110%

  Value-price divergence*

-49%

Previous close

$76.05

 
Intrinsic value

$159.46

 
Up/down potential

+110%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-49%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TNH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -28.18
  10.20
  9.68
  9.21
  8.79
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.49
  7.24
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  418
  461
  505
  552
  600
  651
  703
  758
  815
  874
  935
  999
  1,065
  1,134
  1,205
  1,280
  1,358
  1,439
  1,523
  1,611
  1,703
  1,799
  1,899
  2,004
  2,113
  2,228
  2,347
  2,472
  2,604
  2,741
  2,885
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  185
  203
  222
  241
  262
  283
  305
  327
  351
  376
  401
  428
  456
  485
  515
  546
  578
  612
  648
  685
  723
  763
  805
  849
  895
  944
  994
  1,047
  1,102
  1,160
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  67
  69
  71
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
Total operating expenses, $m
  209
  228
  247
  267
  287
  310
  332
  355
  378
  403
  430
  456
  484
  514
  544
  576
  608
  642
  678
  715
  754
  794
  835
  879
  925
  973
  1,024
  1,076
  1,131
  1,188
  1,248
Operating income, $m
  209
  232
  258
  285
  313
  342
  372
  403
  436
  470
  505
  542
  580
  620
  661
  705
  750
  796
  845
  896
  950
  1,005
  1,063
  1,124
  1,188
  1,254
  1,324
  1,397
  1,473
  1,553
  1,637
EBITDA, $m
  249
  266
  295
  325
  356
  389
  423
  458
  495
  533
  573
  615
  658
  702
  749
  798
  848
  901
  956
  1,013
  1,073
  1,136
  1,201
  1,270
  1,341
  1,416
  1,494
  1,576
  1,662
  1,752
  1,847
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
Earnings before tax, $m
  209
  232
  258
  284
  312
  341
  371
  402
  435
  469
  504
  541
  579
  618
  659
  702
  747
  794
  842
  893
  946
  1,002
  1,059
  1,120
  1,183
  1,249
  1,319
  1,391
  1,467
  1,547
  1,630
Tax expense, $m
  0
  63
  70
  77
  84
  92
  100
  109
  117
  127
  136
  146
  156
  167
  178
  190
  202
  214
  227
  241
  255
  270
  286
  302
  319
  337
  356
  376
  396
  418
  440
Net income, $m
  209
  170
  188
  208
  228
  249
  271
  294
  318
  342
  368
  395
  422
  451
  481
  513
  545
  579
  615
  652
  691
  731
  773
  818
  864
  912
  963
  1,016
  1,071
  1,129
  1,190

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  40
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  373
  367
  403
  440
  478
  519
  560
  604
  649
  696
  745
  796
  848
  903
  960
  1,020
  1,082
  1,146
  1,214
  1,284
  1,357
  1,433
  1,513
  1,597
  1,684
  1,775
  1,870
  1,970
  2,075
  2,184
  2,298
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  333
  367
  403
  440
  478
  519
  560
  604
  649
  696
  745
  796
  848
  903
  960
  1,020
  1,082
  1,146
  1,214
  1,284
  1,357
  1,433
  1,513
  1,597
  1,684
  1,775
  1,870
  1,970
  2,075
  2,184
  2,298
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.255
  1.256
  1.253
  1.255
  1.255
  1.254
  1.255
  1.255
  1.256
  1.256
  1.255
  1.255
  1.256
  1.256
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.256
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
Average production assets, $m
  304
  335
  367
  401
  436
  473
  511
  551
  592
  635
  680
  726
  774
  824
  876
  931
  987
  1,046
  1,107
  1,171
  1,238
  1,308
  1,381
  1,457
  1,536
  1,619
  1,706
  1,797
  1,893
  1,993
  2,097
Working capital, $m
  29
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
Total debt, $m
  0
  3
  7
  11
  15
  19
  23
  28
  32
  37
  42
  47
  53
  58
  64
  70
  76
  83
  90
  97
  104
  112
  120
  129
  138
  147
  157
  167
  178
  189
  200
Total liabilities, $m
  35
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  62
  66
  71
  76
  81
  87
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  212
  223
  234
Total equity, $m
  339
  330
  362
  395
  430
  466
  503
  542
  583
  625
  669
  715
  762
  811
  862
  916
  971
  1,029
  1,090
  1,153
  1,219
  1,287
  1,359
  1,434
  1,512
  1,594
  1,680
  1,769
  1,863
  1,961
  2,064
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  374
  367
  403
  440
  479
  519
  560
  604
  649
  696
  745
  796
  849
  903
  960
  1,020
  1,081
  1,146
  1,214
  1,284
  1,357
  1,433
  1,513
  1,597
  1,684
  1,775
  1,871
  1,970
  2,075
  2,184
  2,298
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  209
  170
  188
  208
  228
  249
  271
  294
  318
  342
  368
  395
  422
  451
  481
  513
  545
  579
  615
  652
  691
  731
  773
  818
  864
  912
  963
  1,016
  1,071
  1,129
  1,190
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  40
  33
  37
  40
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
  162
  171
  180
  189
  199
  210
Funds from operations, $m
  227
  203
  225
  248
  272
  296
  322
  349
  377
  406
  436
  467
  500
  534
  569
  606
  644
  684
  726
  769
  814
  862
  911
  963
  1,017
  1,074
  1,133
  1,195
  1,260
  1,328
  1,400
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  224
  204
  226
  249
  273
  298
  323
  350
  378
  407
  437
  469
  502
  535
  571
  608
  646
  686
  728
  771
  817
  864
  914
  966
  1,020
  1,077
  1,136
  1,199
  1,264
  1,332
  1,404
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -199
New CAPEX, $m
  -33
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -33
  -61
  -65
  -71
  -75
  -81
  -85
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -109
  -114
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -142
  -149
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -226
  -237
  -249
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -304
Free cash flow, $m
  191
  143
  160
  178
  197
  217
  238
  260
  282
  305
  329
  355
  381
  408
  436
  466
  497
  529
  562
  597
  633
  671
  710
  752
  795
  840
  887
  937
  989
  1,043
  1,100
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  191
  146
  164
  182
  201
  221
  242
  264
  287
  310
  334
  360
  386
  414
  442
  472
  503
  535
  569
  604
  640
  679
  719
  760
  804
  849
  897
  947
  999
  1,054
  1,111
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  48
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  40
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  156
  132
  149
  167
  185
  205
  225
  246
  268
  291
  314
  339
  364
  391
  419
  447
  477
  508
  541
  575
  610
  647
  685
  726
  768
  812
  857
  906
  956
  1,009
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  149
  121
  130
  137
  144
  149
  152
  154
  154
  152
  149
  145
  139
  131
  123
  114
  104
  94
  83
  73
  63
  54
  45
  37
  30
  24
  18
  14
  10
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. produces nitrogen fertilizer products in the United States. It primarily offers anhydrous ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate solutions for farmers to enhance the yield and quality of their crops. The company sells its fertilizer products to an affiliate of Terra Nitrogen GP Inc. Terra Nitrogen GP Inc. serves as the general partner of the company. Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. was founded in 1991 and is based in Deerfield, Illinois. Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. is a subsidiary of Terra LP Holdings, LLC.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Terra Nitrogen (TNH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 6.8
Price to Sales 3.4
Price to Book 4.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -28.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -62.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -19.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 51.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 73.1%
Return On Total Capital 57.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 82.1%
Return On Equity 57.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 82.1%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.7%
EBITDA Margin 59.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.8%
Operating Margin 50%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 50%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.3%
Net Profit Margin 50%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 123.4%

TNH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TNH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $418 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Terra Nitrogen. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Terra Nitrogen. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TNH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TNH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Terra Nitrogen, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Terra Nitrogen.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TNH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 40.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $42 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TNH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Terra Nitrogen.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Terra Nitrogen. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TNH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TNH are equal to 72.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Terra Nitrogen operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TNH is equal to -2.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $339 million for Terra Nitrogen - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 18.269 million for Terra Nitrogen is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Terra Nitrogen at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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Stock chart of TNH Financial statements of TNH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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