Intrinsic value of Terra Nitrogen - TNH

Previous Close

$82.00

  Intrinsic Value

$107.23

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+31%

Previous close

$82.00

 
Intrinsic value

$107.23

 
Up/down potential

+31%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of TNH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -28.18
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  418
  426
  436
  447
  460
  474
  489
  506
  524
  543
  564
  586
  610
  636
  663
  691
  721
  754
  787
  823
  861
  901
  943
  987
  1,034
  1,083
  1,135
  1,190
  1,247
  1,308
  1,371
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  171
  175
  180
  185
  191
  197
  203
  211
  218
  227
  236
  245
  256
  266
  278
  290
  303
  317
  331
  346
  362
  379
  397
  416
  436
  456
  478
  501
  526
  551
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  67
  69
  71
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
Total operating expenses, $m
  209
  214
  219
  225
  231
  239
  246
  253
  262
  270
  281
  291
  301
  314
  325
  339
  352
  367
  383
  398
  415
  433
  451
  471
  492
  514
  536
  560
  585
  612
  639
Operating income, $m
  209
  212
  217
  222
  229
  236
  244
  253
  262
  272
  284
  296
  308
  322
  337
  352
  369
  387
  405
  425
  446
  468
  492
  516
  542
  570
  599
  630
  662
  696
  732
EBITDA, $m
  249
  253
  258
  265
  273
  281
  291
  301
  312
  324
  338
  352
  367
  383
  400
  419
  438
  459
  481
  504
  528
  554
  582
  611
  641
  674
  708
  744
  781
  821
  863
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
Earnings before tax, $m
  209
  212
  217
  222
  229
  236
  244
  252
  262
  272
  283
  295
  308
  322
  336
  352
  368
  386
  404
  424
  445
  467
  490
  515
  541
  568
  597
  628
  660
  694
  729
Tax expense, $m
  0
  57
  59
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  115
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  197
Net income, $m
  209
  155
  158
  162
  167
  172
  178
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  225
  235
  245
  257
  269
  282
  295
  310
  325
  341
  358
  376
  395
  415
  436
  458
  482
  506
  532

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  40
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  373
  340
  348
  356
  367
  378
  390
  403
  417
  433
  450
  467
  486
  506
  528
  551
  575
  600
  627
  656
  686
  718
  751
  787
  824
  863
  905
  948
  994
  1,042
  1,093
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  333
  340
  348
  356
  367
  378
  390
  403
  417
  433
  450
  467
  486
  506
  528
  551
  575
  600
  627
  656
  686
  718
  751
  787
  824
  863
  905
  948
  994
  1,042
  1,093
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.255
  1.253
  1.253
  1.256
  1.253
  1.254
  1.254
  1.256
  1.257
  1.254
  1.253
  1.255
  1.255
  1.257
  1.256
  1.254
  1.254
  1.257
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.256
  1.254
  1.255
  1.255
  1.254
  1.255
  1.255
  1.255
  1.254
Average production assets, $m
  304
  310
  317
  325
  334
  345
  356
  368
  381
  395
  410
  426
  444
  462
  482
  502
  524
  548
  572
  598
  626
  655
  686
  718
  752
  788
  825
  865
  907
  951
  997
Working capital, $m
  29
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
Total debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  67
  72
  77
Total liabilities, $m
  35
  35
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
Total equity, $m
  339
  305
  312
  320
  329
  339
  350
  362
  375
  389
  404
  420
  437
  455
  474
  495
  516
  539
  563
  589
  616
  645
  675
  707
  740
  775
  812
  851
  892
  936
  981
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  374
  340
  347
  356
  366
  378
  390
  403
  418
  433
  450
  468
  487
  507
  528
  551
  575
  600
  627
  656
  686
  718
  752
  787
  824
  863
  904
  948
  993
  1,042
  1,092
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.040
  0.040
  0.040
  0.040
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898
  0.898

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  209
  155
  158
  162
  167
  172
  178
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  225
  235
  245
  257
  269
  282
  295
  310
  325
  341
  358
  376
  395
  415
  436
  458
  482
  506
  532
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
Funds from operations, $m
  227
  195
  200
  205
  211
  217
  225
  233
  241
  251
  261
  272
  283
  296
  309
  323
  338
  354
  371
  388
  407
  427
  448
  470
  494
  518
  545
  572
  601
  631
  664
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  224
  196
  200
  205
  211
  218
  225
  233
  242
  251
  261
  272
  284
  296
  310
  324
  339
  355
  371
  389
  408
  428
  449
  471
  495
  520
  546
  573
  602
  633
  665
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
New CAPEX, $m
  -33
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -33
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
Free cash flow, $m
  191
  150
  152
  155
  159
  164
  169
  174
  180
  187
  194
  202
  210
  219
  229
  240
  251
  262
  275
  288
  302
  317
  332
  349
  367
  385
  405
  425
  447
  470
  494
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  191
  150
  153
  156
  160
  165
  170
  176
  182
  188
  196
  204
  212
  222
  231
  242
  253
  265
  277
  291
  305
  320
  336
  353
  370
  389
  409
  430
  452
  475
  499
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  48
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  40
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  184
  146
  148
  151
  155
  159
  164
  169
  175
  181
  188
  195
  203
  212
  221
  231
  242
  253
  265
  278
  291
  306
  321
  337
  354
  372
  391
  410
  431
  454
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  177
  134
  129
  125
  120
  115
  111
  106
  100
  95
  89
  83
  77
  71
  65
  59
  53
  47
  41
  35
  30
  25
  21
  17
  14
  11
  8
  6
  5
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. (TNCLP) is a limited partnership that produces nitrogen fertilizer products. The Company's principal products are anhydrous ammonia (ammonia) and urea ammonium nitrate solutions (UAN), which it manufactures at its facility in Verdigris, Oklahoma. Its nitrogen products are used primarily by farmers. For the year ended December 31, 2016, it had sold 2.2 million tons of nitrogen fertilizers. The Company has production facility, in Verdigris, Oklahoma. As of December 31, 2016, it had two ammonia plants, two nitric acid plants and two UAN plants. The Company conducts its operations through an operating partnership, Terra Nitrogen, Limited Partnership (TNLP). Terra Nitrogen GP Inc. is the general partner of both TNCLP and TNLP and owns a 0.025% general partner interest in each of TNCLP and TNLP. The General Partner is an indirect subsidiary of CF Industries Holdings, Inc., which is engaged in the manufacturing and distribution of nitrogen products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Terra Nitrogen (TNH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.3
Price to Sales 3.7
Price to Book 4.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -28.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -62.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -19.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 51.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 73.1%
Return On Total Capital 57.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 82.1%
Return On Equity 57.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 82.1%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.7%
EBITDA Margin 59.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.8%
Operating Margin 50%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 50%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.3%
Net Profit Margin 50%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 123.4%

TNH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TNH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $418 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Terra Nitrogen. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Terra Nitrogen. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TNH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TNH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Terra Nitrogen, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Terra Nitrogen.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TNH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 40.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $42 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TNH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Terra Nitrogen.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Terra Nitrogen. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TNH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TNH are equal to 72.7%.

Life of production assets of 7.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Terra Nitrogen operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TNH is equal to -2.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $339 million for Terra Nitrogen - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 18.456 million for Terra Nitrogen is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Terra Nitrogen at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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▶ Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. Files 2016 Annual Report   [Feb-27-17 06:10PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of TNH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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