Intrinsic value of Tsakos Energy Navigation - TNP

Previous Close

$4.34

  Intrinsic Value

$4.17

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-4%

  Value-price divergence*

+51%

Previous close

$4.34

 
Intrinsic value

$4.17

 
Up/down potential

-4%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+51%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TNP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -18.03
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  482
  492
  503
  516
  530
  546
  564
  583
  604
  627
  651
  676
  704
  733
  764
  797
  832
  869
  908
  949
  993
  1,039
  1,087
  1,139
  1,193
  1,249
  1,309
  1,372
  1,438
  1,508
  1,581
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  67
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  207
  217
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  336
  345
  353
  362
  371
  380
  390
  400
  410
  420
  430
  441
  452
  463
  475
  487
  499
  512
  524
  537
  551
  565
  579
  593
  608
  623
  639
  655
  671
  688
Total operating expenses, $m
  392
  403
  414
  424
  435
  446
  457
  470
  483
  496
  509
  523
  537
  552
  568
  584
  601
  618
  636
  654
  673
  693
  714
  735
  756
  779
  802
  827
  852
  878
  905
Operating income, $m
  90
  88
  89
  92
  96
  100
  106
  114
  122
  131
  142
  153
  166
  180
  196
  213
  231
  251
  272
  295
  319
  346
  374
  404
  436
  470
  506
  545
  586
  630
  676
EBITDA, $m
  197
  197
  201
  206
  213
  222
  231
  243
  256
  270
  286
  303
  322
  343
  365
  389
  415
  443
  473
  505
  539
  576
  615
  656
  700
  747
  797
  849
  905
  964
  1,027
Interest expense (income), $m
  35
  55
  56
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  72
  75
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
Earnings before tax, $m
  56
  33
  33
  35
  37
  40
  44
  49
  55
  61
  69
  78
  88
  99
  110
  123
  138
  153
  170
  188
  207
  228
  251
  275
  301
  328
  358
  389
  423
  458
  496
Tax expense, $m
  0
  9
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  37
  41
  46
  51
  56
  62
  68
  74
  81
  89
  97
  105
  114
  124
  134
Net income, $m
  56
  24
  24
  25
  27
  29
  32
  36
  40
  45
  50
  57
  64
  72
  81
  90
  101
  112
  124
  137
  151
  167
  183
  201
  220
  240
  261
  284
  309
  335
  362

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  190
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,278
  3,152
  3,224
  3,307
  3,400
  3,503
  3,616
  3,739
  3,873
  4,016
  4,170
  4,335
  4,511
  4,698
  4,898
  5,109
  5,333
  5,570
  5,820
  6,085
  6,365
  6,660
  6,971
  7,299
  7,644
  8,008
  8,391
  8,795
  9,219
  9,666
  10,135
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,088
  3,152
  3,224
  3,307
  3,400
  3,503
  3,616
  3,739
  3,873
  4,016
  4,170
  4,335
  4,511
  4,698
  4,898
  5,109
  5,333
  5,570
  5,820
  6,085
  6,365
  6,660
  6,971
  7,299
  7,644
  8,008
  8,391
  8,795
  9,219
  9,666
  10,135
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
Average production assets, $m
  2,660
  2,713
  2,775
  2,847
  2,927
  3,015
  3,113
  3,219
  3,334
  3,457
  3,590
  3,732
  3,883
  4,044
  4,216
  4,398
  4,590
  4,794
  5,010
  5,238
  5,479
  5,733
  6,001
  6,283
  6,580
  6,894
  7,223
  7,571
  7,936
  8,320
  8,724
Working capital, $m
  -35
  64
  66
  68
  69
  72
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  171
  180
  188
  198
  207
Total debt, $m
  1,754
  1,599
  1,638
  1,683
  1,734
  1,790
  1,852
  1,919
  1,992
  2,070
  2,154
  2,244
  2,340
  2,442
  2,550
  2,665
  2,787
  2,916
  3,053
  3,197
  3,350
  3,511
  3,680
  3,859
  4,047
  4,245
  4,454
  4,674
  4,905
  5,149
  5,405
Total liabilities, $m
  1,872
  1,718
  1,757
  1,802
  1,853
  1,909
  1,971
  2,038
  2,111
  2,189
  2,273
  2,363
  2,459
  2,561
  2,669
  2,784
  2,906
  3,035
  3,172
  3,316
  3,469
  3,630
  3,799
  3,978
  4,166
  4,364
  4,573
  4,793
  5,024
  5,268
  5,524
Total equity, $m
  1,405
  1,434
  1,467
  1,505
  1,547
  1,594
  1,645
  1,701
  1,762
  1,827
  1,897
  1,973
  2,053
  2,138
  2,228
  2,325
  2,426
  2,534
  2,648
  2,769
  2,896
  3,030
  3,172
  3,321
  3,478
  3,644
  3,818
  4,002
  4,195
  4,398
  4,612
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,277
  3,152
  3,224
  3,307
  3,400
  3,503
  3,616
  3,739
  3,873
  4,016
  4,170
  4,336
  4,512
  4,699
  4,897
  5,109
  5,332
  5,569
  5,820
  6,085
  6,365
  6,660
  6,971
  7,299
  7,644
  8,008
  8,391
  8,795
  9,219
  9,666
  10,136
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.248
  1.110
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.393
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  56
  24
  24
  25
  27
  29
  32
  36
  40
  45
  50
  57
  64
  72
  81
  90
  101
  112
  124
  137
  151
  167
  183
  201
  220
  240
  261
  284
  309
  335
  362
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  107
  109
  111
  114
  118
  121
  125
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  177
  184
  193
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  319
  334
  350
Funds from operations, $m
  185
  133
  136
  140
  144
  150
  157
  165
  174
  184
  195
  207
  220
  234
  250
  267
  285
  304
  325
  348
  372
  397
  424
  453
  484
  517
  551
  588
  627
  669
  713
Change in working capital, $m
  15
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
Cash from operations, $m
  170
  132
  134
  138
  142
  148
  155
  162
  171
  181
  191
  203
  216
  231
  246
  262
  280
  300
  320
  342
  366
  391
  418
  446
  477
  509
  543
  580
  619
  660
  703
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -107
  -109
  -111
  -114
  -118
  -121
  -125
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -184
  -193
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -230
  -241
  -252
  -264
  -277
  -290
  -304
  -319
  -334
New CAPEX, $m
  -467
  -53
  -62
  -71
  -80
  -89
  -97
  -106
  -115
  -124
  -133
  -142
  -151
  -161
  -171
  -182
  -193
  -204
  -216
  -228
  -241
  -254
  -268
  -282
  -297
  -313
  -330
  -347
  -365
  -384
  -404
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -576
  -160
  -171
  -182
  -194
  -207
  -218
  -231
  -244
  -258
  -272
  -286
  -301
  -317
  -333
  -351
  -370
  -388
  -409
  -429
  -451
  -474
  -498
  -523
  -549
  -577
  -607
  -637
  -669
  -703
  -738
Free cash flow, $m
  -406
  -28
  -37
  -45
  -52
  -58
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -85
  -87
  -88
  -89
  -89
  -89
  -88
  -87
  -85
  -83
  -80
  -77
  -73
  -68
  -63
  -57
  -51
  -43
  -35
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  366
  35
  40
  45
  51
  56
  62
  67
  73
  78
  84
  90
  96
  102
  109
  115
  122
  129
  137
  144
  152
  161
  170
  179
  188
  198
  209
  220
  231
  243
  256
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -21
  5
  9
  12
  15
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  20
  18
  16
  13
  10
  6
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  344
  40
  49
  57
  66
  74
  81
  87
  94
  99
  104
  108
  112
  115
  119
  121
  123
  129
  137
  144
  152
  161
  170
  179
  188
  198
  209
  220
  231
  243
  256
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -62
  11
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  40
  48
  57
  67
  78
  89
  102
  115
  130
  146
  162
  181
  200
  221
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -2
  -29
  -33
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -174
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -214
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -18
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -67
  -66
  -63
  -60
  -56
  -52
  -47
  -42
  -36
  -29
  -21
  -13
  -3
  7
Discount rate, %
 
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.18
  22.24
  23.35
  24.52
  25.74
  27.03
  28.38
  29.80
  31.29
  32.85
  34.50
  36.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -16
  -14
  -13
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.5
  98.7
  97.5
  96.1
  94.5
  92.9
  91.3
  89.7
  88.3
  86.9
  85.7
  84.8
  84.0
  83.4
  83.1
  83.0
  83.0
  83.0
  83.0
  83.0
  83.0
  83.0
  83.0
  83.0
  83.0
  83.0
  83.0
  83.0
  83.0
  83.0

Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited provides international seaborne crude oil and petroleum product transportation services worldwide. The company offers marine transportation services to national, major, and other independent oil companies and refiners under long, medium, and short-term charters. As of April 5, 2016, it operated a fleet of 50 vessels, including 47 crude oil and petroleum product tankers, 1 liquefied natural gas carrier, and 2 shuttle suezmax tankers. Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited has a strategic partnership with Statoil for the crude oil tanker newbuildings. The company was formerly known as MIF Limited and changed its name to Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited in July 2001. Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited was founded in 1993 and is based in Athens, Greece.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Tsakos Energy Navigation (TNP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 6.5
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -18%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 665.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 33.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 104.3%
Total Debt to Equity 124.8%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Total Capital 1.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Equity 4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 47.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.1%
EBITDA Margin 41.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.1%
Operating Margin 18.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Net Profit Margin 11.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 71.4%

TNP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TNP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $482 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Tsakos Energy Navigation. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Tsakos Energy Navigation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TNP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.8%, whose default value for TNP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Tsakos Energy Navigation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Tsakos Energy Navigation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TNP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 13.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $328 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TNP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Tsakos Energy Navigation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Tsakos Energy Navigation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TNP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TNP are equal to 551.8%.

Life of production assets of 24.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Tsakos Energy Navigation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TNP is equal to 13.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1405 million for Tsakos Energy Navigation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 84.338 million for Tsakos Energy Navigation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Tsakos Energy Navigation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Analysts Recommendations for Crude Tankers in Week 20   [May-25-17 01:35PM  Market Realist]
▶ Analyzing Tsakos Energy Navigations Fleet   [09:06AM  Market Realist]
▶ Tsakos Energy Navigations EBITDA Rose in 1Q17   [May-17-17 10:37AM  Market Realist]
▶ Chinas Imports: 12.5% Higher in First 4 Months of 2017   [May-15-17 10:39AM  Market Realist]
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▶ Analysts Recommendations for Crude Tankers in Week 15   [Apr-19-17 10:37AM  Market Realist]
▶ US Crude Exports Reached a Record High   [Apr-17-17 04:35PM  Market Realist]
▶ Very Large Crude Carrier Rates Rise 64% in Week 14   [Apr-12-17 04:35PM  Market Realist]
▶ Crude Tanker Index and Stocks Fell in Week 14   [02:43PM  Market Realist]
▶ Analyst Recommendations for Crude Oil Tankers in Week 13   [Apr-06-17 02:03PM  Market Realist]
▶ Tsakos Energy Navigations Fleet and Employment Strategy   [Mar-22-17 10:37AM  Market Realist]
▶ Why Tsakos Energy Navigations Revenue Rose 19% in 4Q16   [Mar-21-17 03:05PM  Market Realist]
Financial statements of TNP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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