Intrinsic value of Toll Brothers - TOL

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$39.60

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TOL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  23.95
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  5,170
  5,273
  5,395
  5,533
  5,689
  5,861
  6,051
  6,257
  6,480
  6,720
  6,978
  7,254
  7,548
  7,862
  8,195
  8,548
  8,923
  9,320
  9,739
  10,182
  10,650
  11,144
  11,664
  12,213
  12,791
  13,400
  14,041
  14,716
  15,426
  16,173
  16,959
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,709
  4,817
  4,941
  5,080
  5,234
  5,403
  5,587
  5,786
  6,001
  6,231
  6,478
  6,741
  7,021
  7,318
  7,634
  7,968
  8,322
  8,697
  9,093
  9,510
  9,951
  10,416
  10,906
  11,422
  11,966
  12,539
  13,141
  13,776
  14,443
  15,144
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,679
  4,709
  4,817
  4,941
  5,080
  5,234
  5,403
  5,587
  5,786
  6,001
  6,231
  6,478
  6,741
  7,021
  7,318
  7,634
  7,968
  8,322
  8,697
  9,093
  9,510
  9,951
  10,416
  10,906
  11,422
  11,966
  12,539
  13,141
  13,776
  14,443
  15,144
Operating income, $m
  490
  564
  577
  592
  609
  627
  647
  669
  693
  719
  747
  776
  808
  841
  877
  915
  955
  997
  1,042
  1,089
  1,140
  1,192
  1,248
  1,307
  1,369
  1,434
  1,502
  1,575
  1,651
  1,731
  1,815
EBITDA, $m
  513
  588
  601
  617
  634
  653
  675
  697
  722
  749
  778
  809
  841
  876
  914
  953
  995
  1,039
  1,086
  1,135
  1,187
  1,242
  1,300
  1,361
  1,426
  1,494
  1,565
  1,641
  1,720
  1,803
  1,891
Interest expense (income), $m
  12
  132
  136
  140
  146
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  210
  221
  232
  245
  258
  272
  287
  302
  319
  336
  355
  374
  395
  416
  439
  463
  488
  514
  542
Earnings before tax, $m
  589
  432
  441
  452
  463
  476
  490
  505
  521
  538
  557
  577
  598
  620
  644
  670
  697
  725
  755
  787
  821
  856
  893
  933
  974
  1,018
  1,064
  1,112
  1,163
  1,216
  1,272
Tax expense, $m
  207
  117
  119
  122
  125
  128
  132
  136
  141
  145
  150
  156
  161
  168
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  213
  222
  231
  241
  252
  263
  275
  287
  300
  314
  328
  344
Net income, $m
  382
  315
  322
  330
  338
  347
  357
  368
  380
  393
  406
  421
  436
  453
  470
  489
  509
  529
  551
  575
  599
  625
  652
  681
  711
  743
  776
  812
  849
  888
  929

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  634
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  9,737
  9,284
  9,498
  9,742
  10,016
  10,319
  10,653
  11,015
  11,408
  11,831
  12,285
  12,771
  13,289
  13,841
  14,428
  15,050
  15,710
  16,408
  17,146
  17,926
  18,750
  19,619
  20,536
  21,502
  22,520
  23,592
  24,720
  25,908
  27,159
  28,474
  29,857
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  9,103
  9,284
  9,498
  9,742
  10,016
  10,319
  10,653
  11,015
  11,408
  11,831
  12,285
  12,771
  13,289
  13,841
  14,428
  15,050
  15,710
  16,408
  17,146
  17,926
  18,750
  19,619
  20,536
  21,502
  22,520
  23,592
  24,720
  25,908
  27,159
  28,474
  29,857
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
Average production assets, $m
  153
  158
  162
  166
  171
  176
  182
  188
  194
  202
  209
  218
  226
  236
  246
  256
  268
  280
  292
  305
  319
  334
  350
  366
  384
  402
  421
  441
  463
  485
  509
Working capital, $m
  0
  -649
  -664
  -681
  -700
  -721
  -744
  -770
  -797
  -827
  -858
  -892
  -928
  -967
  -1,008
  -1,051
  -1,098
  -1,146
  -1,198
  -1,252
  -1,310
  -1,371
  -1,435
  -1,502
  -1,573
  -1,648
  -1,727
  -1,810
  -1,897
  -1,989
  -2,086
Total debt, $m
  3,775
  3,884
  4,013
  4,161
  4,327
  4,510
  4,712
  4,931
  5,169
  5,425
  5,700
  5,993
  6,307
  6,641
  6,996
  7,372
  7,771
  8,194
  8,640
  9,112
  9,611
  10,136
  10,691
  11,275
  11,891
  12,540
  13,223
  13,942
  14,698
  15,494
  16,331
Total liabilities, $m
  5,508
  5,617
  5,746
  5,894
  6,060
  6,243
  6,445
  6,664
  6,902
  7,158
  7,433
  7,726
  8,040
  8,374
  8,729
  9,105
  9,504
  9,927
  10,373
  10,845
  11,344
  11,869
  12,424
  13,008
  13,624
  14,273
  14,956
  15,675
  16,431
  17,227
  18,064
Total equity, $m
  4,229
  3,667
  3,752
  3,848
  3,956
  4,076
  4,208
  4,351
  4,506
  4,673
  4,853
  5,045
  5,249
  5,467
  5,699
  5,945
  6,205
  6,481
  6,773
  7,081
  7,406
  7,749
  8,112
  8,493
  8,895
  9,319
  9,765
  10,234
  10,728
  11,247
  11,794
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  9,737
  9,284
  9,498
  9,742
  10,016
  10,319
  10,653
  11,015
  11,408
  11,831
  12,286
  12,771
  13,289
  13,841
  14,428
  15,050
  15,709
  16,408
  17,146
  17,926
  18,750
  19,618
  20,536
  21,501
  22,519
  23,592
  24,721
  25,909
  27,159
  28,474
  29,858
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.893
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.090
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.230
  1.240
  1.250
  1.260
  1.280
  1.290
  1.300
  1.310
  1.320
  1.330
  1.340
  1.350
  1.350
  1.360
  1.370
  1.380
  1.380
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  382
  315
  322
  330
  338
  347
  357
  368
  380
  393
  406
  421
  436
  453
  470
  489
  509
  529
  551
  575
  599
  625
  652
  681
  711
  743
  776
  812
  849
  888
  929
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
Funds from operations, $m
  -131
  339
  346
  354
  364
  374
  384
  396
  409
  423
  438
  453
  470
  488
  507
  527
  549
  571
  595
  620
  647
  675
  704
  735
  768
  803
  839
  878
  918
  960
  1,005
Change in working capital, $m
  -280
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
Cash from operations, $m
  149
  369
  361
  372
  383
  395
  408
  422
  437
  452
  469
  487
  506
  527
  548
  571
  595
  620
  647
  675
  704
  735
  768
  803
  839
  878
  918
  961
  1,005
  1,052
  1,101
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
New CAPEX, $m
  -28
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
Cash from investing activities, $m
  8
  -28
  -28
  -28
  -30
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
Free cash flow, $m
  157
  341
  334
  343
  353
  364
  376
  388
  402
  416
  432
  448
  465
  483
  503
  523
  545
  568
  592
  618
  645
  673
  703
  734
  767
  802
  839
  877
  918
  961
  1,005
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -54
  109
  129
  148
  166
  184
  202
  219
  238
  256
  275
  294
  314
  334
  355
  377
  399
  422
  447
  472
  498
  526
  555
  584
  616
  649
  683
  719
  756
  796
  837
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -386
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -442
  109
  129
  148
  166
  184
  202
  219
  238
  256
  275
  294
  314
  334
  355
  377
  399
  422
  447
  472
  498
  526
  555
  584
  616
  649
  683
  719
  756
  796
  837
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -285
  450
  463
  491
  519
  548
  577
  608
  639
  672
  706
  742
  779
  817
  858
  900
  944
  990
  1,039
  1,090
  1,143
  1,199
  1,257
  1,319
  1,383
  1,451
  1,522
  1,596
  1,674
  1,756
  1,842
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -6
  -72
  -84
  -96
  -108
  -120
  -132
  -143
  -155
  -167
  -179
  -192
  -205
  -218
  -232
  -246
  -261
  -276
  -292
  -308
  -325
  -343
  -362
  -382
  -402
  -423
  -446
  -469
  -494
  -520
  -546
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  634
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,011
  379
  394
  411
  428
  446
  465
  484
  505
  527
  550
  574
  599
  626
  654
  684
  715
  747
  782
  818
  856
  895
  937
  981
  1,027
  1,076
  1,127
  1,180
  1,237
  1,296
Discount rate, %
 
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.37
  29.79
  31.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  940
  325
  310
  293
  275
  256
  236
  215
  194
  173
  152
  132
  114
  96
  80
  65
  53
  42
  32
  24
  18
  13
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, and arranges finance for detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities. The company operates through two segments, Traditional Home Building and City Living. It also builds and sells homes in urban infill markets under the Toll Brothers City Living name. In addition, the company develops, owns, and operates golf courses and country clubs that are associated with various master planned communities; develops and sells land to other builders; and develops, operates, and rents apartments. The company serves move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, age-qualified, and second-home buyers in 19 states in the United States. Toll Brothers, Inc. was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Horsham, Pennsylvania.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Toll Brothers (TOL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.8
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 43
Price to Free Cash Flow 52.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 24%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 211.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 89.3%
Total Debt to Equity 89.3%
Interest Coverage 50
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Total Capital 4.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Return On Equity 9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 19.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.9%
EBITDA Margin 12.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Operating Margin 9.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Net Profit Margin 7.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Effective Tax Rate 35.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

TOL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TOL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5170 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Toll Brothers. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Toll Brothers. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TOL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.6%, whose default value for TOL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Toll Brothers, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Toll Brothers.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TOL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TOL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Toll Brothers.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Toll Brothers. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TOL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TOL are equal to 3%.

Life of production assets of 6.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Toll Brothers operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TOL is equal to -12.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4229 million for Toll Brothers - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 161.226 million for Toll Brothers is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Toll Brothers at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.4 billion.


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Stock chart of TOL Financial statements of TOL Annual reports of TOL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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