Intrinsic value of TRI Pointe Group - TPH

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$12.59

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$12.59

 
Intrinsic value

$14.87

 
Up/down potential

+18%

 
Rating

hold

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TPH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.17
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,405
  2,453
  2,510
  2,574
  2,646
  2,727
  2,815
  2,911
  3,014
  3,126
  3,246
  3,374
  3,511
  3,657
  3,812
  3,977
  4,151
  4,335
  4,530
  4,737
  4,954
  5,184
  5,426
  5,681
  5,950
  6,233
  6,532
  6,846
  7,176
  7,524
  7,889
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,129
  2,178
  2,233
  2,296
  2,365
  2,441
  2,523
  2,613
  2,709
  2,813
  2,909
  3,028
  3,153
  3,287
  3,429
  3,579
  3,738
  3,906
  4,084
  4,272
  4,470
  4,678
  4,898
  5,130
  5,375
  5,632
  5,902
  6,187
  6,487
  6,802
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,108
  2,129
  2,178
  2,233
  2,296
  2,365
  2,441
  2,523
  2,613
  2,709
  2,813
  2,909
  3,028
  3,153
  3,287
  3,429
  3,579
  3,738
  3,906
  4,084
  4,272
  4,470
  4,678
  4,898
  5,130
  5,375
  5,632
  5,902
  6,187
  6,487
  6,802
Operating income, $m
  297
  324
  332
  341
  351
  362
  374
  387
  401
  417
  433
  465
  484
  504
  525
  548
  572
  597
  624
  653
  683
  714
  748
  783
  820
  859
  900
  943
  989
  1,037
  1,087
EBITDA, $m
  300
  339
  347
  355
  365
  376
  389
  402
  416
  432
  448
  466
  485
  505
  526
  549
  573
  599
  626
  654
  684
  716
  749
  784
  822
  861
  902
  945
  991
  1,039
  1,089
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  48
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  112
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  176
Earnings before tax, $m
  302
  276
  283
  290
  299
  308
  318
  329
  341
  354
  367
  396
  412
  428
  446
  465
  485
  506
  528
  552
  576
  603
  630
  659
  690
  722
  756
  792
  830
  869
  911
Tax expense, $m
  106
  75
  76
  78
  81
  83
  86
  89
  92
  96
  99
  107
  111
  116
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  214
  224
  235
  246
Net income, $m
  195
  202
  206
  212
  218
  225
  232
  240
  249
  258
  268
  289
  301
  313
  326
  339
  354
  369
  385
  403
  421
  440
  460
  481
  504
  527
  552
  578
  606
  635
  665

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  209
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,565
  3,421
  3,500
  3,590
  3,691
  3,803
  3,926
  4,059
  4,204
  4,360
  4,527
  4,706
  4,897
  5,101
  5,317
  5,546
  5,789
  6,046
  6,319
  6,606
  6,910
  7,230
  7,568
  7,924
  8,299
  8,694
  9,110
  9,548
  10,008
  10,493
  11,003
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,356
  3,421
  3,500
  3,590
  3,691
  3,803
  3,926
  4,059
  4,204
  4,360
  4,527
  4,706
  4,897
  5,101
  5,317
  5,546
  5,789
  6,046
  6,319
  6,606
  6,910
  7,230
  7,568
  7,924
  8,299
  8,694
  9,110
  9,548
  10,008
  10,493
  11,003
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
Average production assets, $m
  23
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
Working capital, $m
  0
  -199
  -203
  -208
  -214
  -221
  -228
  -236
  -244
  -253
  -263
  -273
  -284
  -296
  -309
  -322
  -336
  -351
  -367
  -384
  -401
  -420
  -440
  -460
  -482
  -505
  -529
  -554
  -581
  -609
  -639
Total debt, $m
  1,382
  1,401
  1,442
  1,488
  1,539
  1,597
  1,660
  1,728
  1,803
  1,883
  1,969
  2,060
  2,158
  2,263
  2,374
  2,491
  2,616
  2,748
  2,887
  3,035
  3,191
  3,355
  3,528
  3,711
  3,903
  4,106
  4,319
  4,544
  4,780
  5,029
  5,290
Total liabilities, $m
  1,735
  1,755
  1,796
  1,842
  1,893
  1,951
  2,014
  2,082
  2,157
  2,237
  2,323
  2,414
  2,512
  2,617
  2,728
  2,845
  2,970
  3,102
  3,241
  3,389
  3,545
  3,709
  3,882
  4,065
  4,257
  4,460
  4,673
  4,898
  5,134
  5,383
  5,644
Total equity, $m
  1,829
  1,666
  1,705
  1,748
  1,798
  1,852
  1,912
  1,977
  2,047
  2,123
  2,205
  2,292
  2,385
  2,484
  2,589
  2,701
  2,819
  2,945
  3,077
  3,217
  3,365
  3,521
  3,685
  3,859
  4,041
  4,234
  4,436
  4,650
  4,874
  5,110
  5,358
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,564
  3,421
  3,501
  3,590
  3,691
  3,803
  3,926
  4,059
  4,204
  4,360
  4,528
  4,706
  4,897
  5,101
  5,317
  5,546
  5,789
  6,047
  6,318
  6,606
  6,910
  7,230
  7,567
  7,924
  8,298
  8,694
  9,109
  9,548
  10,008
  10,493
  11,002
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.756
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.990
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.483
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  195
  202
  206
  212
  218
  225
  232
  240
  249
  258
  268
  289
  301
  313
  326
  339
  354
  369
  385
  403
  421
  440
  460
  481
  504
  527
  552
  578
  606
  635
  665
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Funds from operations, $m
  -538
  216
  221
  227
  233
  239
  247
  255
  264
  273
  283
  290
  302
  314
  327
  341
  355
  371
  387
  404
  422
  441
  462
  483
  505
  529
  554
  580
  608
  637
  667
Change in working capital, $m
  -380
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
Cash from operations, $m
  -158
  220
  226
  232
  239
  246
  254
  263
  272
  282
  293
  301
  313
  326
  339
  354
  369
  385
  403
  421
  440
  460
  481
  504
  527
  552
  578
  606
  635
  665
  697
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
Free cash flow, $m
  -162
  219
  224
  230
  237
  244
  252
  261
  270
  280
  291
  298
  310
  323
  337
  351
  366
  383
  400
  418
  436
  456
  478
  500
  523
  548
  574
  601
  630
  660
  691
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  210
  33
  40
  46
  52
  57
  63
  69
  74
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  147
  156
  164
  173
  183
  192
  203
  213
  225
  236
  249
  262
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -42
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  156
  33
  40
  46
  52
  57
  63
  69
  74
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  147
  156
  164
  173
  183
  192
  203
  213
  225
  236
  249
  262
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -6
  252
  265
  277
  289
  302
  315
  330
  345
  360
  377
  390
  408
  428
  448
  469
  491
  515
  539
  565
  592
  621
  651
  682
  716
  750
  787
  825
  866
  908
  953
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -164
  -32
  -38
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -76
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -183
  -192
  -203
  -213
  -224
  -236
  -248
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  195
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  415
  226
  233
  240
  247
  256
  264
  274
  284
  295
  303
  315
  329
  342
  357
  373
  389
  407
  425
  444
  465
  486
  509
  533
  558
  584
  612
  642
  672
  705
Discount rate, %
 
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.86
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.20
  13.86
  14.55
  15.28
  16.04
  16.85
  17.69
  18.57
  19.50
  20.48
  21.50
  22.58
  23.70
  24.89
  26.13
  27.44
  28.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  388
  197
  186
  176
  164
  153
  141
  129
  117
  105
  92
  81
  70
  60
  51
  42
  35
  28
  22
  17
  13
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

TRI Pointe Group, Inc., through its subsidiary, TRI Pointe Homes, Inc., engages in the design, construction, and sale of single-family attached and detached homes in the United States. It also develops and sells land and lots. The company operates a portfolio of six brands across eight states, including Maracay Homes in Arizona; Pardee Homes in California and Nevada; Quadrant Homes in Washington; Trendmaker Homes in Texas; TRI Pointe Homes in California and Colorado; and Winchester Homes in Maryland and Virginia. In addition, it offers financial services, such as mortgage financing and title services. The company sells homes through its own sales representatives and independent real estate brokers. TRI Pointe Group, Inc. is headquartered in Irvine, California. TRI Pointe Group, Inc. is a subsidiary of Weyerhaeuser NR Company.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  TRI Pointe Group (TPH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.2
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -12.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -12.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 300%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -16.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 15
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 74.8%
Total Debt to Equity 75.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Return On Total Capital 6.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Return On Equity 11.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.1%
EBITDA Margin 12.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Operating Margin 12.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Net Profit Margin 8.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Effective Tax Rate 35.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

TPH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TPH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2405 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by TRI Pointe Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of TRI Pointe Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TPH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7%, whose default value for TPH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of TRI Pointe Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of TRI Pointe Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TPH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TPH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for TRI Pointe Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for TRI Pointe Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TPH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TPH are equal to 0.9%.

Life of production assets of 53.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in TRI Pointe Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TPH is equal to -8.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1829 million for TRI Pointe Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 154.705 million for TRI Pointe Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of TRI Pointe Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Tri Pointe misses 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-26-17 06:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ Housing Could Be Ready to Explode: 5 Top Stocks to Buy Now   [Apr-05-17 10:35AM  24/7 Wall St.]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Crazy About Tri Pointe Homes Inc (TPH)   [Nov-28-16 05:44AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ TRI Pointe Homes Move-In Ready Buying Event Is Underway   [Nov-04-16 11:08AM  Marketwired]
▶ TRI Pointe Homes Supports Make A Difference Day   [Oct-22-16 11:08AM  Marketwired]
▶ TRI Pointe Homes' Move-In Ready Buying Event   [Sep-30-16 02:08PM  Marketwired]
Stock chart of TPH Financial statements of TPH Annual reports of TPH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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