Intrinsic value of Third Point Reinsurance - TPRE

Previous Close

$14.15

  Intrinsic Value

$3.24

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-77%

Previous close

$14.15

 
Intrinsic value

$3.24

 
Up/down potential

-77%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as TPRE.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TPRE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.83
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  0
  703
  719
  737
  758
  781
  806
  834
  864
  896
  930
  967
  1,006
  1,048
  1,092
  1,139
  1,189
  1,242
  1,298
  1,357
  1,419
  1,485
  1,554
  1,628
  1,705
  1,786
  1,871
  1,961
  2,056
  2,155
  2,260
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  163
  167
  171
  176
  181
  187
  193
  200
  208
  216
  224
  233
  243
  253
  264
  276
  288
  301
  315
  329
  345
  361
  378
  395
  414
  434
  455
  477
  500
  524
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  560
  574
  588
  603
  618
  633
  649
  665
  682
  699
  716
  734
  753
  771
  791
  811
  831
  852
  873
  895
  917
  940
  963
  988
  1,012
  1,038
  1,063
  1,090
  1,117
  1,145
Total operating expenses, $m
  666
  723
  741
  759
  779
  799
  820
  842
  865
  890
  915
  940
  967
  996
  1,024
  1,055
  1,087
  1,119
  1,153
  1,188
  1,224
  1,262
  1,301
  1,341
  1,383
  1,426
  1,472
  1,518
  1,567
  1,617
  1,669
Operating income, $m
  23
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -20
  -18
  -14
  -9
  -2
  6
  15
  26
  38
  52
  67
  84
  103
  123
  145
  169
  195
  223
  254
  287
  322
  359
  400
  443
  489
  538
  590
EBITDA, $m
  23
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -20
  -18
  -14
  -9
  -2
  6
  15
  26
  38
  52
  67
  84
  103
  123
  145
  169
  195
  223
  254
  287
  322
  359
  400
  443
  489
  538
  590
Interest expense (income), $m
  23
  23
  33
  45
  58
  73
  90
  108
  128
  150
  174
  199
  226
  254
  285
  317
  352
  388
  427
  468
  511
  556
  604
  655
  708
  765
  824
  886
  952
  1,021
  1,094
Earnings before tax, $m
  34
  -43
  -54
  -66
  -78
  -91
  -104
  -117
  -131
  -144
  -158
  -173
  -187
  -202
  -217
  -233
  -249
  -265
  -281
  -298
  -315
  -333
  -350
  -368
  -387
  -405
  -424
  -444
  -463
  -483
  -503
Tax expense, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  28
  -43
  -54
  -66
  -78
  -91
  -104
  -117
  -131
  -144
  -158
  -173
  -187
  -202
  -217
  -233
  -249
  -265
  -281
  -298
  -315
  -333
  -350
  -368
  -387
  -405
  -424
  -444
  -463
  -483
  -503

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,896
  3,971
  4,062
  4,166
  4,283
  4,413
  4,556
  4,711
  4,879
  5,060
  5,254
  5,462
  5,683
  5,919
  6,170
  6,436
  6,718
  7,017
  7,333
  7,666
  8,019
  8,390
  8,782
  9,195
  9,631
  10,089
  10,572
  11,080
  11,615
  12,177
  12,769
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,896
  3,971
  4,062
  4,166
  4,283
  4,413
  4,556
  4,711
  4,879
  5,060
  5,254
  5,462
  5,683
  5,919
  6,170
  6,436
  6,718
  7,017
  7,333
  7,666
  8,019
  8,390
  8,782
  9,195
  9,631
  10,089
  10,572
  11,080
  11,615
  12,177
  12,769
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
  0.177
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  116
  119
  122
  125
  129
  133
  138
  142
  148
  153
  160
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  224
  234
  245
  256
  269
  281
  295
  309
  324
  339
  356
  373
Total debt, $m
  114
  161
  219
  286
  361
  443
  534
  633
  740
  855
  979
  1,111
  1,252
  1,403
  1,562
  1,732
  1,912
  2,102
  2,303
  2,516
  2,740
  2,977
  3,226
  3,490
  3,767
  4,059
  4,366
  4,690
  5,031
  5,389
  5,766
Total liabilities, $m
  2,482
  2,529
  2,587
  2,654
  2,729
  2,811
  2,902
  3,001
  3,108
  3,223
  3,347
  3,479
  3,620
  3,771
  3,930
  4,100
  4,280
  4,470
  4,671
  4,884
  5,108
  5,345
  5,594
  5,858
  6,135
  6,427
  6,734
  7,058
  7,399
  7,757
  8,134
Total equity, $m
  1,414
  1,441
  1,474
  1,512
  1,555
  1,602
  1,654
  1,710
  1,771
  1,837
  1,907
  1,983
  2,063
  2,149
  2,240
  2,336
  2,439
  2,547
  2,662
  2,783
  2,911
  3,046
  3,188
  3,338
  3,496
  3,662
  3,838
  4,022
  4,216
  4,420
  4,635
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,896
  3,970
  4,061
  4,166
  4,284
  4,413
  4,556
  4,711
  4,879
  5,060
  5,254
  5,462
  5,683
  5,920
  6,170
  6,436
  6,719
  7,017
  7,333
  7,667
  8,019
  8,391
  8,782
  9,196
  9,631
  10,089
  10,572
  11,080
  11,615
  12,177
  12,769
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.081
  0.110
  0.150
  0.190
  0.230
  0.280
  0.320
  0.370
  0.420
  0.470
  0.510
  0.560
  0.610
  0.650
  0.700
  0.740
  0.780
  0.830
  0.870
  0.900
  0.940
  0.980
  1.010
  1.050
  1.080
  1.110
  1.140
  1.170
  1.190
  1.220
  1.240
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  28
  -43
  -54
  -66
  -78
  -91
  -104
  -117
  -131
  -144
  -158
  -173
  -187
  -202
  -217
  -233
  -249
  -265
  -281
  -298
  -315
  -333
  -350
  -368
  -387
  -405
  -424
  -444
  -463
  -483
  -503
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  -118
  -43
  -54
  -66
  -78
  -91
  -104
  -117
  -131
  -144
  -158
  -173
  -187
  -202
  -217
  -233
  -249
  -265
  -281
  -298
  -315
  -333
  -350
  -368
  -387
  -405
  -424
  -444
  -463
  -483
  -503
Change in working capital, $m
  -123
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
Cash from operations, $m
  5
  -45
  -57
  -69
  -82
  -95
  -108
  -122
  -135
  -150
  -164
  -179
  -194
  -209
  -225
  -241
  -257
  -274
  -291
  -308
  -326
  -344
  -362
  -380
  -399
  -419
  -438
  -459
  -479
  -500
  -521
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -53
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -48
  -45
  -57
  -69
  -82
  -95
  -108
  -122
  -135
  -150
  -164
  -179
  -194
  -209
  -225
  -241
  -257
  -274
  -291
  -308
  -326
  -344
  -362
  -380
  -399
  -419
  -438
  -459
  -479
  -500
  -521
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  22
  47
  58
  66
  75
  83
  91
  99
  107
  115
  124
  132
  141
  150
  160
  170
  180
  190
  201
  213
  224
  237
  250
  263
  277
  292
  308
  324
  341
  358
  377
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -2
  70
  87
  104
  121
  138
  156
  173
  191
  210
  229
  248
  268
  288
  309
  330
  351
  373
  396
  419
  443
  468
  493
  518
  545
  572
  600
  628
  657
  687
  718
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  38
  117
  145
  170
  196
  221
  247
  272
  298
  325
  353
  380
  409
  438
  469
  500
  531
  563
  597
  632
  667
  705
  743
  781
  822
  864
  908
  952
  998
  1,045
  1,095
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -10
  72
  89
  101
  114
  126
  138
  151
  163
  176
  189
  202
  215
  229
  244
  258
  274
  290
  307
  324
  342
  361
  381
  401
  423
  445
  469
  493
  519
  546
  574
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -34
  -70
  -87
  -104
  -121
  -138
  -156
  -173
  -191
  -210
  -229
  -248
  -268
  -288
  -309
  -330
  -351
  -373
  -396
  -419
  -443
  -468
  -493
  -518
  -545
  -572
  -600
  -628
  -657
  -687
  -718
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  2
  1
  -3
  -7
  -12
  -17
  -23
  -28
  -34
  -40
  -46
  -53
  -59
  -65
  -71
  -77
  -84
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -131
  -135
  -138
  -141
  -144
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  2
  1
  -2
  -6
  -9
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -21
  -20
  -18
  -16
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.6
  90.6
  85.1
  79.3
  73.4
  67.4
  61.5
  55.8
  50.3
  45.2
  40.4
  35.9
  31.8
  28.2
  24.8
  21.8
  19.1
  16.7
  14.6
  12.8
  11.1
  9.7
  8.4
  7.3
  6.4
  5.6
  4.8
  4.2
  3.7
  3.2

Third Point Reinsurance Ltd. is a holding company. Through the Company's reinsurance subsidiaries, it provides property and casualty reinsurance coverage to insurance and reinsurance companies. The Company's segments include Property and Casualty Reinsurance, and Corporate. The Company's investable assets are managed by its investment manager, Third Point LLC. The Company also writes reinsurance contracts that provide protection against adverse development on loss reserves. Through Third Point LLC, the Company makes investments globally in all sectors, and in equity, credit, commodity, currency, options and other instruments. The Company also acts as the underwriter for the majority of the premium that it underwrites. The Company writes reinsurance contracts covering product lines, such as property, workers' compensation, auto, general liability, professional liability, credit and financial lines, and multi-line.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Third Point Reinsurance (TPRE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 53.8
Price to Sales 2.2
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 301.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 301.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 19.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 8.1%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Return On Total Capital 1.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Return On Equity 2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 8.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Operating Margin 3.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Net Profit Margin 4.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Effective Tax Rate 14.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

TPRE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TPRE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $689 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Third Point Reinsurance. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Third Point Reinsurance. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TPRE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TPRE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Third Point Reinsurance, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Third Point Reinsurance.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TPRE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 23.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $546 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TPRE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 20.3% for Third Point Reinsurance.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Third Point Reinsurance. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TPRE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TPRE are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Third Point Reinsurance operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TPRE is equal to 16.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1414 million for Third Point Reinsurance - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 109.215 million for Third Point Reinsurance is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Third Point Reinsurance at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Third Point Reinsurance Ltd. to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-09-17 06:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Third Point Reinsurance posts 3Q profit   [Nov-08-17 07:34PM  Associated Press]
▶ Here's Why Third Point Reinsurance Is Soaring Today   [Sep-21-17 11:32AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Third Point's Rumored Involvement Boosts Gilead Sciences   [Aug-09-17 12:45PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Third Point Reinsurance posts 2Q profit   [11:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ Daniel Loeb Discusses Baxter, Alibaba in Q2 Letter   [Jul-26-17 03:36PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Third Point Reinsurance posts 1Q profit   [May-05-17 05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Third Point Reinsurance posts 4Q loss   [Feb-23-17 05:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ A Side Door into Marquee Hedge Funds   [Feb-14-17 03:06PM  Barrons.com]
▶ A Side Door into Marquee Hedge Funds   [03:06PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ [$$] How to Invest With Ackman and Loeb   [Feb-11-17 12:01AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Is Third Point Reinsurance Ltd (TPRE) Worthy of Your Portfolio?   [Dec-15-16 11:08PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Should You Buy Pacira Pharmaceuticals Inc (PCRX)?   [Dec-08-16 02:06AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of TPRE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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