Intrinsic value of Tempur Sealy International - TPX

Previous Close

$61.40

  Intrinsic Value

$10.52

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-83%

  Value-price divergence*

-45%

Previous close

$61.40

 
Intrinsic value

$10.52

 
Up/down potential

-83%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-45%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TPX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.76
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,127
  3,190
  3,263
  3,347
  3,441
  3,545
  3,660
  3,784
  3,919
  4,065
  4,221
  4,387
  4,566
  4,755
  4,957
  5,170
  5,397
  5,637
  5,890
  6,158
  6,441
  6,740
  7,055
  7,387
  7,737
  8,105
  8,493
  8,901
  9,330
  9,782
  10,257
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,876
  2,940
  3,014
  3,096
  3,188
  3,289
  3,398
  3,517
  3,645
  3,782
  3,856
  4,013
  4,179
  4,356
  4,544
  4,743
  4,954
  5,177
  5,413
  5,661
  5,924
  6,200
  6,492
  6,799
  7,123
  7,464
  7,823
  8,200
  8,597
  9,015
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,759
  2,876
  2,940
  3,014
  3,096
  3,188
  3,289
  3,398
  3,517
  3,645
  3,782
  3,856
  4,013
  4,179
  4,356
  4,544
  4,743
  4,954
  5,177
  5,413
  5,661
  5,924
  6,200
  6,492
  6,799
  7,123
  7,464
  7,823
  8,200
  8,597
  9,015
Operating income, $m
  368
  314
  323
  333
  344
  357
  371
  386
  402
  420
  439
  531
  553
  576
  600
  626
  654
  683
  713
  746
  780
  816
  854
  895
  937
  982
  1,029
  1,078
  1,130
  1,185
  1,242
EBITDA, $m
  441
  431
  441
  452
  465
  479
  495
  511
  530
  549
  570
  593
  617
  643
  670
  699
  729
  762
  796
  832
  871
  911
  953
  998
  1,046
  1,095
  1,148
  1,203
  1,261
  1,322
  1,386
Interest expense (income), $m
  77
  87
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  164
  173
  182
  192
  203
  214
  226
  239
  252
  266
  280
  296
  312
Earnings before tax, $m
  283
  227
  247
  254
  263
  272
  282
  293
  305
  318
  332
  419
  434
  451
  468
  487
  507
  528
  550
  573
  598
  624
  652
  680
  711
  743
  777
  812
  850
  889
  931
Tax expense, $m
  86
  61
  67
  69
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  113
  117
  122
  126
  132
  137
  143
  148
  155
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  219
  229
  240
  251
Net income, $m
  202
  166
  180
  186
  192
  199
  206
  214
  223
  232
  242
  306
  317
  329
  342
  356
  370
  385
  401
  419
  437
  456
  476
  497
  519
  542
  567
  593
  620
  649
  679

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  66
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,703
  2,757
  2,820
  2,893
  2,974
  3,064
  3,163
  3,271
  3,387
  3,513
  3,648
  3,792
  3,946
  4,110
  4,284
  4,469
  4,665
  4,872
  5,091
  5,323
  5,567
  5,825
  6,098
  6,384
  6,687
  7,005
  7,340
  7,693
  8,064
  8,455
  8,866
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,637
  2,757
  2,820
  2,893
  2,974
  3,064
  3,163
  3,271
  3,387
  3,513
  3,648
  3,792
  3,946
  4,110
  4,284
  4,469
  4,665
  4,872
  5,091
  5,323
  5,567
  5,825
  6,098
  6,384
  6,687
  7,005
  7,340
  7,693
  8,064
  8,455
  8,866
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.186
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
  1.157
Average production assets, $m
  1,079
  1,100
  1,126
  1,155
  1,187
  1,223
  1,263
  1,306
  1,352
  1,402
  1,456
  1,514
  1,575
  1,641
  1,710
  1,784
  1,862
  1,945
  2,032
  2,125
  2,222
  2,325
  2,434
  2,548
  2,669
  2,796
  2,930
  3,071
  3,219
  3,375
  3,539
Working capital, $m
  126
  134
  137
  141
  145
  149
  154
  159
  165
  171
  177
  184
  192
  200
  208
  217
  227
  237
  247
  259
  271
  283
  296
  310
  325
  340
  357
  374
  392
  411
  431
Total debt, $m
  1,888
  1,651
  1,708
  1,773
  1,847
  1,928
  2,017
  2,114
  2,219
  2,332
  2,453
  2,583
  2,721
  2,869
  3,026
  3,192
  3,368
  3,555
  3,752
  3,961
  4,181
  4,413
  4,658
  4,916
  5,188
  5,475
  5,776
  6,094
  6,428
  6,779
  7,149
Total liabilities, $m
  2,718
  2,481
  2,538
  2,603
  2,677
  2,758
  2,847
  2,944
  3,049
  3,162
  3,283
  3,413
  3,551
  3,699
  3,856
  4,022
  4,198
  4,385
  4,582
  4,791
  5,011
  5,243
  5,488
  5,746
  6,018
  6,305
  6,606
  6,924
  7,258
  7,609
  7,979
Total equity, $m
  -15
  276
  282
  289
  297
  306
  316
  327
  339
  351
  365
  379
  395
  411
  428
  447
  466
  487
  509
  532
  557
  583
  610
  638
  669
  701
  734
  769
  806
  845
  887
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,703
  2,757
  2,820
  2,892
  2,974
  3,064
  3,163
  3,271
  3,388
  3,513
  3,648
  3,792
  3,946
  4,110
  4,284
  4,469
  4,664
  4,872
  5,091
  5,323
  5,568
  5,826
  6,098
  6,384
  6,687
  7,006
  7,340
  7,693
  8,064
  8,454
  8,866
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -125.867
  5.990
  6.060
  6.130
  6.210
  6.290
  6.380
  6.460
  6.550
  6.640
  6.720
  6.810
  6.900
  6.980
  7.060
  7.140
  7.220
  7.300
  7.370
  7.440
  7.510
  7.580
  7.640
  7.700
  7.760
  7.820
  7.870
  7.920
  7.970
  8.020
  8.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.031
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  202
  166
  180
  186
  192
  199
  206
  214
  223
  232
  242
  306
  317
  329
  342
  356
  370
  385
  401
  419
  437
  456
  476
  497
  519
  542
  567
  593
  620
  649
  679
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  73
  117
  118
  119
  121
  122
  124
  125
  127
  129
  131
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  108
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
Funds from operations, $m
  30
  283
  298
  305
  312
  321
  330
  339
  350
  361
  374
  367
  381
  396
  411
  428
  446
  464
  484
  505
  527
  550
  575
  600
  627
  656
  686
  718
  751
  786
  823
Change in working capital, $m
  -136
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
Cash from operations, $m
  166
  280
  295
  301
  309
  316
  325
  334
  344
  355
  367
  360
  373
  388
  403
  419
  436
  454
  473
  494
  515
  538
  561
  586
  613
  641
  670
  701
  733
  767
  803
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
New CAPEX, $m
  -62
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -62
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -204
  -214
  -225
  -235
  -248
  -260
  -273
  -287
  -301
Free cash flow, $m
  104
  215
  225
  227
  229
  232
  236
  240
  245
  250
  256
  243
  251
  258
  267
  276
  285
  296
  307
  319
  331
  344
  358
  373
  389
  405
  422
  441
  460
  481
  502
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  342
  -237
  57
  65
  73
  81
  89
  97
  105
  113
  121
  130
  139
  147
  157
  166
  176
  187
  197
  208
  220
  232
  245
  258
  272
  287
  302
  318
  334
  351
  370
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -519
  125
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -185
  -112
  57
  65
  73
  81
  89
  97
  105
  113
  121
  130
  139
  147
  157
  166
  176
  187
  197
  208
  220
  232
  245
  258
  272
  287
  302
  318
  334
  351
  370
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -88
  103
  282
  292
  302
  313
  325
  337
  350
  363
  378
  373
  389
  406
  424
  442
  462
  482
  504
  527
  551
  576
  603
  631
  661
  692
  724
  758
  794
  832
  872
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  305
  -291
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -188
  276
  285
  294
  304
  315
  326
  338
  351
  364
  359
  374
  389
  406
  424
  442
  462
  482
  504
  527
  551
  576
  602
  630
  660
  691
  723
  757
  793
  831
Discount rate, %
 
  13.40
  14.07
  14.77
  15.51
  16.29
  17.10
  17.96
  18.86
  19.80
  20.79
  21.83
  22.92
  24.06
  25.27
  26.53
  27.86
  29.25
  30.71
  32.25
  33.86
  35.55
  37.33
  39.20
  41.16
  43.22
  45.38
  47.65
  50.03
  52.53
  55.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -166
  212
  188
  165
  143
  122
  103
  85
  69
  55
  41
  31
  24
  17
  12
  9
  6
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Tempur Sealy International, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes bedding products worldwide. It operates through two segments, North America and International. The company provides mattresses, foundations, and adjustable foundations, as well as other products comprising pillows, mattress covers, sheets, cushions, and various comfort products. It offers its products under the TEMPUR, Tempur-Pedic, Sealy, Sealy Posturepedic, and Stearns & Foster brand names. The company sells its products through furniture and bedding retailers, department stores, specialty retailers, and warehouse clubs; e-commerce platforms, company-owned stores, and call centers; and other third party distributors, and hospitality and healthcare customers. It is also involved in licensing its Sealy, and Stearns & Foster brands, technology, and trademarks to other manufacturers. Tempur Sealy International, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Tempur Sealy International (TPX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.5
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book -222.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 32.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -6.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -12120%
Total Debt to Equity -12586.7%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Return On Total Capital 11.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Equity 146.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 81.5%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40%
EBITDA Margin 13.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Operating Margin 11.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Net Profit Margin 6.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Effective Tax Rate 30.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

TPX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TPX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3127 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Tempur Sealy International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Tempur Sealy International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TPX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.4%, whose default value for TPX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Tempur Sealy International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Tempur Sealy International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TPX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TPX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.6% for Tempur Sealy International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Tempur Sealy International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TPX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TPX are equal to 34.5%.

Life of production assets of 24.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Tempur Sealy International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TPX is equal to 4.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-15 million for Tempur Sealy International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 53.579 million for Tempur Sealy International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Tempur Sealy International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Tempur Sealy beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-27-17 04:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ Select Comfort Stock Has a Lot to Prove on Monday   [Jul-15-17 10:07AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Select Comfort Doesn't Need Tempur Sealy   [Jun-30-17 09:07AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Mattress Stocks Are Surging Today   [Jun-29-17 12:49PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Tempur Sealy's stock rallies after upbeat sales update   [Jun-05-17 08:33AM  MarketWatch]
▶ Tempur Sealy Provides Business Update   [08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Tempur Sealy beats 1Q profit forecasts   [07:31AM  Associated Press]
Stock chart of TPX Financial statements of TPX Annual reports of TPX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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