Intrinsic value of Trex - TREX

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$68.46

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$68.46

 
Intrinsic value

$64.81

 
Up/down potential

-5%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TREX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.84
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  480
  512
  546
  580
  617
  654
  694
  735
  777
  822
  868
  917
  968
  1,021
  1,076
  1,134
  1,195
  1,258
  1,325
  1,394
  1,467
  1,544
  1,624
  1,708
  1,796
  1,888
  1,984
  2,086
  2,192
  2,304
  2,421
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  171
  182
  193
  205
  218
  231
  245
  259
  274
  289
  305
  322
  340
  358
  378
  398
  419
  441
  464
  489
  514
  541
  569
  598
  629
  661
  695
  730
  767
  806
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  227
  232
  238
  244
  250
  256
  263
  269
  276
  283
  290
  297
  305
  312
  320
  328
  336
  345
  353
  362
  371
  380
  390
  400
  410
  420
  430
  441
  452
  464
Total operating expenses, $m
  376
  398
  414
  431
  449
  468
  487
  508
  528
  550
  572
  595
  619
  645
  670
  698
  726
  755
  786
  817
  851
  885
  921
  959
  998
  1,039
  1,081
  1,125
  1,171
  1,219
  1,270
Operating income, $m
  104
  115
  132
  149
  167
  186
  206
  227
  249
  272
  296
  322
  348
  376
  405
  436
  469
  503
  539
  577
  617
  658
  703
  749
  798
  849
  904
  961
  1,021
  1,084
  1,151
EBITDA, $m
  119
  131
  149
  167
  187
  207
  228
  250
  274
  298
  323
  350
  378
  408
  439
  472
  506
  542
  580
  620
  662
  707
  753
  802
  854
  909
  966
  1,026
  1,090
  1,157
  1,227
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
  89
  95
Earnings before tax, $m
  103
  115
  130
  146
  162
  179
  197
  216
  236
  257
  279
  301
  325
  351
  377
  405
  435
  466
  498
  533
  569
  607
  647
  690
  734
  781
  831
  883
  938
  996
  1,056
Tax expense, $m
  35
  31
  35
  39
  44
  48
  53
  58
  64
  69
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  109
  117
  126
  135
  144
  154
  164
  175
  186
  198
  211
  224
  238
  253
  269
  285
Net income, $m
  68
  84
  95
  106
  118
  131
  144
  158
  172
  187
  203
  220
  238
  256
  276
  296
  317
  340
  364
  389
  415
  443
  473
  503
  536
  570
  606
  644
  684
  727
  771

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  221
  216
  230
  244
  260
  275
  292
  309
  327
  346
  365
  386
  407
  430
  453
  477
  503
  530
  558
  587
  618
  650
  683
  719
  756
  795
  835
  878
  923
  970
  1,019
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  202
  216
  230
  244
  260
  275
  292
  309
  327
  346
  365
  386
  407
  430
  453
  477
  503
  530
  558
  587
  618
  650
  683
  719
  756
  795
  835
  878
  923
  970
  1,019
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.376
  2.370
  2.374
  2.377
  2.373
  2.378
  2.377
  2.379
  2.376
  2.376
  2.378
  2.376
  2.378
  2.374
  2.375
  2.377
  2.376
  2.374
  2.375
  2.375
  2.374
  2.375
  2.378
  2.376
  2.376
  2.375
  2.376
  2.376
  2.375
  2.375
  2.376
Average production assets, $m
  113
  120
  128
  136
  145
  154
  163
  173
  183
  193
  204
  215
  227
  240
  253
  267
  281
  296
  311
  328
  345
  363
  382
  401
  422
  444
  466
  490
  515
  541
  569
Working capital, $m
  55
  38
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  173
  182
Total debt, $m
  0
  6
  12
  18
  25
  32
  39
  46
  54
  62
  71
  79
  89
  98
  108
  119
  130
  141
  153
  166
  179
  193
  208
  223
  239
  255
  273
  291
  311
  331
  352
Total liabilities, $m
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  158
  166
  176
  185
  195
  206
  217
  228
  240
  253
  266
  280
  295
  310
  326
  342
  360
  378
  398
  418
  439
Total equity, $m
  134
  123
  131
  139
  148
  157
  166
  176
  186
  197
  208
  220
  232
  244
  258
  272
  286
  301
  317
  334
  351
  370
  389
  409
  430
  452
  475
  500
  525
  552
  580
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  221
  216
  230
  244
  260
  276
  292
  309
  327
  346
  366
  386
  408
  429
  453
  478
  503
  529
  557
  587
  617
  650
  684
  719
  756
  794
  835
  878
  923
  970
  1,019
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.050
  0.090
  0.130
  0.170
  0.200
  0.230
  0.260
  0.290
  0.320
  0.340
  0.360
  0.380
  0.400
  0.420
  0.440
  0.450
  0.470
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  68
  84
  95
  106
  118
  131
  144
  158
  172
  187
  203
  220
  238
  256
  276
  296
  317
  340
  364
  389
  415
  443
  473
  503
  536
  570
  606
  644
  684
  727
  771
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
Funds from operations, $m
  78
  100
  112
  125
  138
  151
  166
  181
  197
  213
  231
  249
  268
  288
  309
  331
  355
  380
  405
  433
  461
  492
  523
  557
  592
  629
  669
  710
  753
  799
  847
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
Cash from operations, $m
  85
  99
  110
  122
  135
  149
  163
  178
  193
  210
  227
  245
  264
  284
  305
  327
  350
  375
  400
  427
  456
  486
  517
  551
  586
  622
  661
  702
  745
  791
  838
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -10
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -37
  -38
  -41
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
Free cash flow, $m
  75
  76
  86
  97
  108
  120
  133
  146
  160
  175
  190
  206
  223
  241
  260
  280
  301
  322
  345
  370
  395
  422
  450
  480
  511
  545
  579
  616
  655
  696
  739
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -7
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -55
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -62
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  13
  82
  92
  103
  115
  127
  140
  154
  168
  183
  199
  215
  233
  251
  270
  290
  312
  334
  357
  382
  408
  436
  465
  495
  527
  561
  597
  635
  674
  716
  760
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -18
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  93
  84
  95
  106
  118
  131
  144
  158
  172
  188
  204
  221
  238
  257
  276
  297
  319
  342
  366
  391
  418
  446
  475
  506
  539
  574
  610
  649
  689
  732
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  90
  77
  82
  87
  92
  95
  97
  99
  99
  98
  97
  94
  91
  86
  81
  75
  69
  63
  56
  50
  43
  37
  31
  26
  21
  17
  13
  10
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
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Trex Company, Inc. manufactures and distributes wood/plastic composite products, and related accessories primarily for the residential and commercial decking, and railing applications in the United States. It offers Trex Transcend, Trex Enhance, and Trex Select protective shells for protection against fading, staining, mold, and scratching; and Trex Hideaway, a hidden fastening system for grooved boards. The company also provides railing products, such as Trex Transcend Railing for use with Trex decking products and other decking materials; Trex Select Railing for consumers, who desire a simple clean finished look for their decks; and Trex Signature aluminum railing for contemporary look. In addition, it offers Trex Transcend Porch Flooring and Railing System, an integrated system of porch components and accessories; and Trex Seclusions fencing product, which includes structural posts, bottom and top rails, pickets, and decorative post caps. Further, the company provides steel deck framing systems under the Trex Elevations name; Trex DeckLighting, a line of energy-efficient LED dimmable deck lighting for use on posts, floors, and steps; and Trex LandscapeLighting products. Additionally, it acts as a licensor in various licensing agreements with third parties to manufacture and sell products under Trex name, including Trex Outdoor Furniture; Trex RainEscape, an above joist deck drainage system; Trex CustomCurve that allows contractors to heat and bend Trex products; Trex Pergolas, a cellular PVC trim product; Diablo Trex Blade, a saw blade for wood-plastic composite decking; Trex SpiralStairs and structural steel posts; and Trex Outdoor Kitchens, Cabinetry, and Storage. The company sells its products through wholesale distributors, retail lumber dealers, and Home Depot and Lowe’s stores. Trex Company, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Winchester, Virginia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Trex (TREX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29.6
Price to Sales 4.2
Price to Book 15
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 23.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 28.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -34.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 104
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 31.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.9%
Return On Total Capital 52.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.9%
Return On Equity 54.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.8%
Asset Turnover 2.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.6%
EBITDA Margin 24.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.3%
Operating Margin 21.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.7%
Net Profit Margin 14.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Effective Tax Rate 34%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

TREX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TREX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $480 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Trex. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Trex. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TREX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TREX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Trex, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Trex.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TREX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 33.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $221 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TREX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 28.6% for Trex.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Trex. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TREX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TREX are equal to 23.5%.

Life of production assets of 7.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Trex operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TREX is equal to 7.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $134 million for Trex - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.332 million for Trex is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Trex at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Trex beats Street 1Q forecasts   [May-04-17 07:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ Trex Brings Modern Luxury to Lake House Competition   [May-03-17 02:10PM  Marketwired]
▶ Trex Signature(R) Railing Named Among "Hot 50" Products   [Apr-25-17 09:04AM  Marketwired]
▶ 3 Great Stocks for Your IRA   [Apr-24-17 04:22PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Top Stocks for Your IRA   [Mar-30-17 07:45AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Trex Honored With 'Best of Houzz' Design Award   [Mar-17-17 09:04AM  Marketwired]
▶ Love Growth? Then You'll Love These 3 Stocks   [Feb-18-17 12:07PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Trex Makes It Easy to Plan and Build Dream Decks   [Jan-11-17 08:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ Trex Introduces Signature(R) Railing   [08:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Top Housing Stocks to Buy in 2017   [Dec-17-16 10:06AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Buying Trex Company Inc (TREX)   [Dec-12-16 02:51AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Trex Makes a Coastal Dream Come True   [Dec-09-16 09:04AM  Marketwired]
▶ 3 Growth Stocks That Could Double   [Dec-08-16 10:45AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Trex(R) Reigns Supreme at National Deck Competition   [Nov-30-16 09:04AM  Marketwired]
▶ Trex Stock May Be Too Hot for Its Own Good   [Nov-22-16 11:06AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Can Trex Keep Going After Last Week's 20% Pop?   [Nov-13-16 10:00AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Trex Featured in New Winchester Cancer Center Garden   [Oct-20-16 09:04AM  Marketwired]
▶ Conscious Capitalism Fan? Then You'll Love These 3 Stocks   [Oct-14-16 12:11PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Trex Makes It Easy to Plan and Build Your Dream Deck   [Oct-07-16 09:04AM  Marketwired]
▶ 3 Stocks to Capitalize on Millennial Tastes   [Sep-20-16 09:33AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Winning Stocks You Never Saw Coming   [Sep-11-16 09:08AM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of TREX Financial statements of TREX Annual reports of TREX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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