Intrinsic value of TripAdvisor - TRIP

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$42.97

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$42.97

 
Intrinsic value

$27.12

 
Up/down potential

-37%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TRIP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.80
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
Revenue, $m
  1,480
  1,514
  1,553
  1,597
  1,645
  1,698
  1,756
  1,819
  1,886
  1,958
  2,036
  2,118
  2,206
  2,300
  2,399
  2,504
  2,616
  2,733
  2,858
  2,989
  3,127
  3,274
  3,428
  3,590
  3,761
  3,941
  4,130
  4,329
  4,539
  4,760
  4,992
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,256
  1,287
  1,321
  1,359
  1,400
  1,445
  1,494
  1,547
  1,604
  1,664
  1,655
  1,724
  1,797
  1,874
  1,957
  2,043
  2,135
  2,233
  2,335
  2,443
  2,558
  2,678
  2,805
  2,938
  3,079
  3,227
  3,382
  3,546
  3,719
  3,900
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,314
  1,256
  1,287
  1,321
  1,359
  1,400
  1,445
  1,494
  1,547
  1,604
  1,664
  1,655
  1,724
  1,797
  1,874
  1,957
  2,043
  2,135
  2,233
  2,335
  2,443
  2,558
  2,678
  2,805
  2,938
  3,079
  3,227
  3,382
  3,546
  3,719
  3,900
Operating income, $m
  166
  258
  266
  276
  286
  298
  310
  324
  339
  355
  372
  463
  483
  503
  525
  548
  572
  598
  625
  654
  684
  716
  750
  785
  823
  862
  903
  947
  993
  1,041
  1,092
EBITDA, $m
  267
  360
  369
  380
  391
  404
  418
  433
  449
  466
  484
  504
  525
  547
  571
  596
  622
  650
  680
  711
  744
  779
  815
  854
  894
  937
  982
  1,030
  1,080
  1,132
  1,187
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  52
  55
  60
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
Earnings before tax, $m
  151
  253
  260
  269
  278
  289
  300
  313
  326
  340
  355
  445
  462
  481
  500
  521
  543
  566
  590
  616
  643
  672
  702
  734
  767
  802
  840
  879
  920
  963
  1,008
Tax expense, $m
  31
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  174
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  237
  248
  260
  272
Net income, $m
  120
  184
  190
  196
  203
  211
  219
  228
  238
  248
  259
  325
  338
  351
  365
  380
  396
  413
  431
  450
  469
  490
  512
  536
  560
  586
  613
  641
  671
  703
  736

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  730
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,238
  1,543
  1,583
  1,628
  1,677
  1,731
  1,790
  1,854
  1,923
  1,996
  2,075
  2,160
  2,249
  2,344
  2,446
  2,553
  2,666
  2,786
  2,913
  3,047
  3,188
  3,337
  3,494
  3,659
  3,834
  4,017
  4,210
  4,413
  4,627
  4,852
  5,088
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,508
  1,543
  1,583
  1,628
  1,677
  1,731
  1,790
  1,854
  1,923
  1,996
  2,075
  2,160
  2,249
  2,344
  2,446
  2,553
  2,666
  2,786
  2,913
  3,047
  3,188
  3,337
  3,494
  3,659
  3,834
  4,017
  4,210
  4,413
  4,627
  4,852
  5,088
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
Average production assets, $m
  285
  292
  300
  308
  317
  328
  339
  351
  364
  378
  393
  409
  426
  444
  463
  483
  505
  528
  552
  577
  604
  632
  662
  693
  726
  761
  797
  836
  876
  919
  963
Working capital, $m
  527
  -126
  -129
  -133
  -137
  -141
  -146
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -199
  -208
  -217
  -227
  -237
  -248
  -260
  -272
  -284
  -298
  -312
  -327
  -343
  -359
  -377
  -395
  -414
Total debt, $m
  171
  106
  124
  143
  164
  188
  214
  241
  271
  303
  338
  374
  413
  455
  499
  545
  595
  647
  702
  760
  822
  887
  955
  1,027
  1,103
  1,182
  1,266
  1,355
  1,448
  1,546
  1,648
Total liabilities, $m
  736
  671
  689
  708
  729
  753
  779
  806
  836
  868
  903
  939
  978
  1,020
  1,064
  1,110
  1,160
  1,212
  1,267
  1,325
  1,387
  1,452
  1,520
  1,592
  1,668
  1,747
  1,831
  1,920
  2,013
  2,111
  2,213
Total equity, $m
  1,502
  872
  894
  920
  947
  978
  1,011
  1,047
  1,086
  1,128
  1,173
  1,220
  1,271
  1,325
  1,382
  1,442
  1,506
  1,574
  1,646
  1,721
  1,801
  1,885
  1,974
  2,068
  2,166
  2,270
  2,379
  2,493
  2,614
  2,741
  2,875
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,238
  1,543
  1,583
  1,628
  1,676
  1,731
  1,790
  1,853
  1,922
  1,996
  2,076
  2,159
  2,249
  2,345
  2,446
  2,552
  2,666
  2,786
  2,913
  3,046
  3,188
  3,337
  3,494
  3,660
  3,834
  4,017
  4,210
  4,413
  4,627
  4,852
  5,088
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.114
  0.120
  0.140
  0.160
  0.170
  0.190
  0.210
  0.230
  0.250
  0.270
  0.290
  0.310
  0.330
  0.340
  0.360
  0.380
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.512
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  120
  184
  190
  196
  203
  211
  219
  228
  238
  248
  259
  325
  338
  351
  365
  380
  396
  413
  431
  450
  469
  490
  512
  536
  560
  586
  613
  641
  671
  703
  736
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  101
  103
  103
  104
  105
  106
  107
  108
  110
  111
  113
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
Funds from operations, $m
  346
  287
  293
  300
  308
  317
  326
  337
  348
  359
  372
  365
  380
  395
  411
  428
  446
  465
  485
  507
  529
  553
  578
  604
  632
  661
  692
  724
  758
  794
  831
Change in working capital, $m
  25
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
Cash from operations, $m
  321
  279
  297
  304
  312
  321
  331
  342
  353
  365
  378
  372
  387
  403
  419
  437
  455
  475
  496
  518
  541
  565
  591
  618
  646
  676
  707
  741
  776
  812
  851
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
New CAPEX, $m
  -72
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -163
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -96
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
Free cash flow, $m
  158
  243
  260
  266
  273
  280
  288
  296
  305
  315
  326
  317
  330
  342
  356
  371
  386
  402
  419
  438
  457
  477
  498
  521
  544
  569
  596
  623
  652
  683
  715
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -30
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -98
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -143
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -2
  259
  277
  285
  294
  303
  313
  324
  335
  347
  360
  354
  369
  384
  400
  417
  435
  454
  475
  496
  518
  542
  567
  593
  620
  649
  680
  712
  745
  781
  818
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -90
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  650
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  889
  255
  260
  266
  273
  280
  288
  296
  306
  316
  306
  318
  330
  343
  357
  371
  387
  403
  420
  438
  458
  478
  499
  522
  546
  571
  597
  625
  654
  684
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  852
  233
  226
  219
  211
  203
  194
  185
  176
  165
  146
  136
  125
  115
  105
  94
  84
  74
  65
  56
  47
  40
  33
  27
  21
  17
  13
  10
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

TripAdvisor, Inc. operates as an online travel company. The company operates through two segments, Hotel and Non-Hotel. Its travel platform aggregates reviews and opinions of members about destinations, accommodations, activities and attractions, and restaurants, which enables users to research and plan their travel experiences, as well as book hotels, flights, cruises, vacation rentals, activities and attractions, and restaurant reservations. The company operates TripAdvisor-branded Websites, including tripadvisor.com in the United States; and localized versions of the Website in 48 markets and 28 languages. It also manages and operates 23 other media brands that provide travel planning resources across the travel sector, such as airfarewatchdog.com, bookingbuddy.com, citymaps.com, cruisecritic.com, familyvacationcritic.com, flipkey.com, gateguru.com, holidaylettings.co.uk, holidaywatchdog.com, housetrip.com, independenttraveler.com, jetsetter.com, thefork.com, niumba.com, onetime.com, oyster.com, seatguru.com, smartertravel.com, tingo.com, travelpod.com, tripbod.com, vacationhomerentals.com, and viator.com. The company’s Websites feature 465 million reviews and opinions on 7 million places comprising 1,060,000 hotels and accommodations; 835,000 vacation rentals; 4.3 million restaurants; and 760,000 activities and attractions worldwide. TripAdvisor, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Needham, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  TripAdvisor (TRIP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 51.6
Price to Sales 4.2
Price to Book 4.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 6.1%
Total Debt to Equity 11.4%
Interest Coverage 16
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Return On Total Capital 7.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Return On Equity 8.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.5%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 95.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 96%
EBITDA Margin 17.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24%
Operating Margin 11.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Net Profit Margin 8.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Effective Tax Rate 20.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

TRIP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TRIP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1480 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by TripAdvisor. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of TripAdvisor. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TRIP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TRIP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of TripAdvisor, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of TripAdvisor.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TRIP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TRIP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for TripAdvisor.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for TripAdvisor. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TRIP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TRIP are equal to 19.3%.

Life of production assets of 10.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in TripAdvisor operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TRIP is equal to -8.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1502 million for TripAdvisor - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 143.652 million for TripAdvisor is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of TripAdvisor at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.2 billion.


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Stock chart of TRIP Financial statements of TRIP Annual reports of TRIP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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