Intrinsic value of Speedway Motorsports - TRK

Previous Close

$23.03

  Intrinsic Value

$4.52

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-80%

  Value-price divergence*

-14%

Previous close

$23.03

 
Intrinsic value

$4.52

 
Up/down potential

-80%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-14%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TRK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.23
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  512
  522
  534
  548
  563
  580
  599
  620
  642
  666
  691
  718
  748
  779
  812
  847
  884
  923
  964
  1,008
  1,055
  1,104
  1,155
  1,209
  1,267
  1,327
  1,391
  1,457
  1,528
  1,602
  1,680
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  554
  567
  581
  597
  615
  635
  656
  680
  705
  732
  756
  786
  819
  854
  890
  929
  971
  1,014
  1,061
  1,109
  1,161
  1,215
  1,272
  1,332
  1,396
  1,463
  1,533
  1,607
  1,685
  1,767
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  438
  554
  567
  581
  597
  615
  635
  656
  680
  705
  732
  756
  786
  819
  854
  890
  929
  971
  1,014
  1,061
  1,109
  1,161
  1,215
  1,272
  1,332
  1,396
  1,463
  1,533
  1,607
  1,685
  1,767
Operating income, $m
  74
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
EBITDA, $m
  128
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  42
  44
  47
  51
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
Earnings before tax, $m
  61
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -165
Tax expense, $m
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  40
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -165

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  79
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,498
  1,447
  1,480
  1,518
  1,561
  1,608
  1,660
  1,716
  1,778
  1,844
  1,914
  1,990
  2,071
  2,157
  2,248
  2,345
  2,448
  2,557
  2,672
  2,793
  2,922
  3,057
  3,200
  3,350
  3,509
  3,676
  3,852
  4,037
  4,232
  4,437
  4,652
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,419
  1,447
  1,480
  1,518
  1,561
  1,608
  1,660
  1,716
  1,778
  1,844
  1,914
  1,990
  2,071
  2,157
  2,248
  2,345
  2,448
  2,557
  2,672
  2,793
  2,922
  3,057
  3,200
  3,350
  3,509
  3,676
  3,852
  4,037
  4,232
  4,437
  4,652
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
Average production assets, $m
  1,308
  1,334
  1,365
  1,400
  1,439
  1,483
  1,531
  1,583
  1,640
  1,700
  1,766
  1,835
  1,910
  1,989
  2,074
  2,163
  2,258
  2,358
  2,464
  2,576
  2,695
  2,820
  2,951
  3,090
  3,237
  3,391
  3,553
  3,724
  3,903
  4,092
  4,291
Working capital, $m
  33
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
Total debt, $m
  262
  268
  284
  303
  324
  347
  372
  400
  429
  462
  496
  533
  573
  614
  659
  706
  757
  810
  866
  925
  988
  1,054
  1,124
  1,197
  1,274
  1,356
  1,442
  1,532
  1,627
  1,727
  1,832
Total liabilities, $m
  700
  706
  722
  741
  762
  785
  810
  838
  867
  900
  934
  971
  1,011
  1,052
  1,097
  1,144
  1,195
  1,248
  1,304
  1,363
  1,426
  1,492
  1,562
  1,635
  1,712
  1,794
  1,880
  1,970
  2,065
  2,165
  2,270
Total equity, $m
  798
  741
  758
  777
  799
  823
  850
  879
  910
  944
  980
  1,019
  1,060
  1,104
  1,151
  1,201
  1,253
  1,309
  1,368
  1,430
  1,496
  1,565
  1,638
  1,715
  1,797
  1,882
  1,972
  2,067
  2,167
  2,272
  2,382
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,498
  1,447
  1,480
  1,518
  1,561
  1,608
  1,660
  1,717
  1,777
  1,844
  1,914
  1,990
  2,071
  2,156
  2,248
  2,345
  2,448
  2,557
  2,672
  2,793
  2,922
  3,057
  3,200
  3,350
  3,509
  3,676
  3,852
  4,037
  4,232
  4,437
  4,652
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.328
  0.360
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.420
  0.440
  0.450
  0.470
  0.490
  0.510
  0.520
  0.540
  0.560
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.620
  0.630
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.507
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  40
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -165
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  54
  58
  59
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  148
  156
  163
  171
Funds from operations, $m
  112
  15
  15
  15
  15
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  13
  13
  13
  13
  12
  12
  12
  11
  11
  11
  10
  10
  9
  9
  8
  8
  7
  7
  6
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
Cash from operations, $m
  114
  15
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  14
  14
  14
  14
  13
  13
  13
  13
  12
  12
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -148
  -156
  -163
New CAPEX, $m
  -35
  -26
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -199
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -32
  -78
  -84
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -232
  -244
  -257
  -269
  -283
  -297
  -313
  -328
  -345
  -362
Free cash flow, $m
  82
  -63
  -68
  -74
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -148
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -185
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -230
  -243
  -256
  -270
  -284
  -299
  -315
  -332
  -350
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -54
  14
  16
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  39
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  82
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -6
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  98
  98
  104
  110
  116
  123
  130
  138
  145
  153
  162
  171
  180
  190
  201
  212
  223
  235
  248
  261
  275
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -60
  71
  77
  84
  90
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
  133
  135
  143
  152
  161
  170
  180
  191
  201
  212
  225
  237
  250
  263
  278
  294
  309
  325
  343
  361
  380
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  22
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -13
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -98
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -190
  -201
  -212
  -223
  -235
  -248
  -261
  -275
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  71
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  22
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -188
  -198
  -209
  -220
  -232
  -245
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  21
  -48
  -48
  -48
  -48
  -48
  -47
  -46
  -45
  -43
  -42
  -40
  -37
  -35
  -32
  -29
  -27
  -24
  -21
  -18
  -16
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.9
  87.8
  81.9
  76.2
  70.8
  65.6
  60.7
  56.0
  51.6
  47.5
  43.9
  40.4
  37.2
  34.2
  31.4
  28.8
  26.4
  24.1
  22.1
  20.2
  18.4
  16.8
  15.3
  13.9
  12.7
  11.5
  10.5
  9.5
  8.7
  7.9

Speedway Motorsports, Inc. (SMI), through its operating subsidiaries, is a promoter, marketer and sponsor of motorsports activities in the United States. The Company's operations consist of promoting, marketing and sponsoring motorsports racing events, merchandising and other related activities conducted at its various speedway facilities located in the United States. Its segments include motorsports event related and all other. Its motorsports event related segment consists of National Association for Stock Car Auto Racing, Inc. (NASCAR) broadcasting and event motorsports merchandising activities. Its all other operations consist of SMIP subsidiary non-event motorsports and non-motorsports merchandising, US Legend Cars International subsidiary (Legend Cars) non-event merchandising and sanctioning body activities, Oil-Chem micro-lubricant activities, Texas Motor Speedway (TMS) natural gas mineral rights lease and related revenues, and office rentals at certain Company speedways.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Speedway Motorsports (TRK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.7
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 12
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 12.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 23.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 10
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 31.8%
Total Debt to Equity 32.8%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Return On Total Capital 3.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Return On Equity 5.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 44.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.1%
EBITDA Margin 25%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.5%
Operating Margin 14.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Net Profit Margin 7.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Effective Tax Rate 34.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.2%
Payout Ratio 62.5%

TRK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TRK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $512 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Speedway Motorsports. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Speedway Motorsports. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TRK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TRK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Speedway Motorsports, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Speedway Motorsports.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TRK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 106.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TRK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.5% for Speedway Motorsports.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Speedway Motorsports. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TRK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TRK are equal to 255.5%.

Life of production assets of 25.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Speedway Motorsports operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TRK is equal to -7.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $798 million for Speedway Motorsports - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 41.5 million for Speedway Motorsports is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Speedway Motorsports at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Speedway posts 2Q profit   [Jul-26-17 09:36PM  Associated Press]
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▶ Speedway reports 1Q loss   [Apr-26-17 09:18AM  Associated Press]
▶ Solar panels, cabanas part of latest changes at CLT speedway   [03:04PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Do Sports Teams Make Good Investments?   [Mar-28-17 06:25PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Vegas, baby! City will host 2 NASCAR Cup races each year   [Mar-08-17 08:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ Speedway posts 4Q profit   [06:57AM  Associated Press]
▶ Three Value Stocks With Turnaround Potential In 2017   [Feb-01-17 06:12PM  at Forbes]
▶ MLS exec 'impressed' by Charlotte bid group   [05:37PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ County manager: MLS bid may still go forward   [01:21PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ City delays MLS soccer stadium discussion   [Jan-19-17 10:39AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Speedway CEO bidding for MLS franchise in Charlotte   [Dec-16-16 01:00AM  at bizjournals.com]
Financial statements of TRK
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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