Intrinsic value of Tremor Video - TRMR

Previous Close

$2.50

  Intrinsic Value

$0.32

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-87%

  Value-price divergence*

-86%

Previous close

$2.50

 
Intrinsic value

$0.32

 
Up/down potential

-87%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-86%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TRMR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.02
  17.10
  15.89
  14.80
  13.82
  12.94
  12.14
  11.43
  10.79
  10.21
  9.69
  9.22
  8.80
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.49
  7.24
  7.02
  6.82
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
Revenue, $m
  167
  196
  227
  260
  296
  334
  375
  418
  463
  510
  560
  611
  665
  721
  779
  840
  903
  968
  1,036
  1,107
  1,180
  1,257
  1,336
  1,419
  1,505
  1,595
  1,688
  1,786
  1,888
  1,994
  2,105
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  243
  282
  324
  368
  416
  466
  519
  575
  634
  695
  758
  824
  894
  966
  1,041
  1,119
  1,200
  1,284
  1,372
  1,463
  1,557
  1,656
  1,758
  1,865
  1,976
  2,092
  2,213
  2,340
  2,471
  2,609
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  187
  243
  282
  324
  368
  416
  466
  519
  575
  634
  695
  758
  824
  894
  966
  1,041
  1,119
  1,200
  1,284
  1,372
  1,463
  1,557
  1,656
  1,758
  1,865
  1,976
  2,092
  2,213
  2,340
  2,471
  2,609
Operating income, $m
  -21
  -48
  -55
  -63
  -72
  -81
  -91
  -101
  -112
  -123
  -135
  -146
  -159
  -173
  -187
  -201
  -216
  -232
  -248
  -265
  -283
  -301
  -320
  -340
  -360
  -382
  -404
  -428
  -452
  -477
  -504
EBITDA, $m
  -12
  -45
  -52
  -59
  -68
  -76
  -86
  -95
  -106
  -116
  -128
  -139
  -152
  -164
  -178
  -192
  -206
  -221
  -236
  -252
  -269
  -287
  -305
  -323
  -343
  -364
  -385
  -407
  -430
  -455
  -480
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
Earnings before tax, $m
  -21
  -48
  -56
  -64
  -73
  -83
  -94
  -104
  -116
  -128
  -141
  -153
  -166
  -181
  -195
  -211
  -227
  -243
  -261
  -279
  -297
  -317
  -337
  -358
  -380
  -403
  -427
  -451
  -477
  -504
  -533
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -21
  -48
  -56
  -64
  -73
  -83
  -94
  -104
  -116
  -128
  -141
  -153
  -166
  -181
  -195
  -211
  -227
  -243
  -261
  -279
  -297
  -317
  -337
  -358
  -380
  -403
  -427
  -451
  -477
  -504
  -533

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  43
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  154
  130
  151
  173
  197
  222
  249
  278
  308
  339
  372
  406
  442
  479
  518
  558
  600
  643
  688
  735
  784
  835
  888
  943
  1,000
  1,060
  1,122
  1,187
  1,254
  1,325
  1,399
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  111
  130
  151
  173
  197
  222
  249
  278
  308
  339
  372
  406
  442
  479
  518
  558
  600
  643
  688
  735
  784
  835
  888
  943
  1,000
  1,060
  1,122
  1,187
  1,254
  1,325
  1,399
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.505
  1.508
  1.503
  1.503
  1.503
  1.505
  1.506
  1.504
  1.503
  1.504
  1.505
  1.505
  1.505
  1.505
  1.504
  1.505
  1.505
  1.505
  1.506
  1.506
  1.505
  1.505
  1.505
  1.505
  1.505
  1.505
  1.504
  1.505
  1.506
  1.505
  1.505
Average production assets, $m
  19
  22
  26
  30
  34
  38
  43
  48
  53
  58
  64
  70
  76
  82
  89
  96
  103
  110
  118
  126
  135
  143
  152
  162
  172
  182
  192
  204
  215
  227
  240
Working capital, $m
  57
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  43
  47
  51
  56
  61
  65
  71
  76
  81
  87
  93
  99
  106
  112
  119
  126
  134
  142
  150
  159
  167
  177
Total debt, $m
  1
  14
  28
  43
  59
  76
  94
  114
  134
  155
  177
  201
  225
  250
  276
  303
  332
  361
  391
  423
  456
  490
  526
  563
  602
  642
  684
  728
  774
  822
  872
Total liabilities, $m
  76
  88
  102
  117
  133
  150
  168
  188
  208
  229
  251
  275
  299
  324
  350
  377
  406
  435
  465
  497
  530
  564
  600
  637
  676
  716
  758
  802
  848
  896
  946
Total equity, $m
  79
  42
  49
  56
  64
  72
  81
  90
  100
  110
  120
  132
  143
  155
  168
  181
  194
  208
  223
  238
  254
  271
  288
  305
  324
  343
  363
  384
  406
  429
  453
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  155
  130
  151
  173
  197
  222
  249
  278
  308
  339
  371
  407
  442
  479
  518
  558
  600
  643
  688
  735
  784
  835
  888
  942
  1,000
  1,059
  1,121
  1,186
  1,254
  1,325
  1,399
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.013
  0.330
  0.570
  0.770
  0.930
  1.060
  1.170
  1.260
  1.340
  1.410
  1.470
  1.520
  1.570
  1.610
  1.650
  1.680
  1.710
  1.730
  1.750
  1.780
  1.800
  1.810
  1.830
  1.840
  1.860
  1.870
  1.880
  1.890
  1.900
  1.910
  1.920
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -21
  -48
  -56
  -64
  -73
  -83
  -94
  -104
  -116
  -128
  -141
  -153
  -166
  -181
  -195
  -211
  -227
  -243
  -261
  -279
  -297
  -317
  -337
  -358
  -380
  -403
  -427
  -451
  -477
  -504
  -533
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
Funds from operations, $m
  -7
  -45
  -52
  -60
  -69
  -78
  -88
  -99
  -110
  -121
  -133
  -146
  -159
  -172
  -186
  -201
  -216
  -232
  -249
  -266
  -284
  -302
  -322
  -342
  -363
  -385
  -407
  -431
  -456
  -482
  -509
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
Cash from operations, $m
  -7
  -47
  -55
  -63
  -72
  -82
  -92
  -102
  -113
  -125
  -137
  -150
  -163
  -177
  -191
  -206
  -222
  -238
  -255
  -272
  -290
  -309
  -328
  -349
  -370
  -392
  -415
  -439
  -464
  -491
  -518
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
Free cash flow, $m
  -10
  -52
  -61
  -70
  -79
  -89
  -100
  -111
  -123
  -136
  -149
  -162
  -176
  -191
  -206
  -222
  -238
  -256
  -273
  -292
  -311
  -331
  -352
  -374
  -396
  -420
  -444
  -470
  -496
  -524
  -553
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -5
  54
  63
  72
  81
  91
  102
  114
  126
  138
  151
  164
  178
  193
  208
  224
  240
  257
  275
  294
  313
  333
  354
  376
  399
  422
  447
  473
  499
  527
  557
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -6
  67
  77
  87
  97
  108
  120
  133
  146
  159
  173
  187
  202
  218
  234
  251
  268
  286
  306
  326
  346
  367
  390
  413
  438
  462
  489
  517
  545
  575
  607
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -17
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  22
  -54
  -63
  -72
  -81
  -91
  -102
  -114
  -126
  -138
  -151
  -164
  -178
  -193
  -208
  -224
  -240
  -257
  -275
  -294
  -313
  -333
  -354
  -376
  -399
  -422
  -447
  -473
  -499
  -527
  -557
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  43
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  4
  -47
  -54
  -63
  -72
  -82
  -92
  -103
  -114
  -126
  -139
  -152
  -166
  -180
  -195
  -210
  -226
  -243
  -260
  -278
  -297
  -316
  -336
  -357
  -379
  -402
  -426
  -451
  -477
  -504
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  3
  -43
  -47
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -66
  -66
  -65
  -63
  -60
  -57
  -53
  -49
  -45
  -40
  -35
  -31
  -26
  -22
  -18
  -15
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  53.0
  28.2
  15.1
  8.1
  4.4
  2.4
  1.3
  0.7
  0.4
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Tremor Video, Inc. provides online video advertising services for buyers and sellers of video advertisements in the United States. The company’s technology optimizes performance of video ad campaigns across various screens, including computers, smartphones, tablets, and connected TVs; analyzes video content; detects viewer and system attributes; and leverages its repository of stored and integrated third-party data. It also provides Tremor Video DSP, a customizable user interface that allows buyers to manage the execution of campaigns on a programmatic basis; and Tremor Video SSP, which offers tools to manage supply hierarchies and demand tiers, and real-time reports to sellers to monitor bidding activity on inventory. The company was formerly known as Tremor Media, Inc. and changed its name to Tremor Video, Inc. in June 2011. Tremor Video, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Tremor Video (TRMR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -6
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -18
Price to Free Cash Flow -12.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -62.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 1.3%
Total Debt to Equity 1.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -13%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.8%
Return On Total Capital -23.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.8%
Return On Equity -23.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.8%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 45.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.7%
EBITDA Margin -7.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.5%
Operating Margin -12%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -12.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.3%
Net Profit Margin -12.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

TRMR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TRMR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $167 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Tremor Video. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Tremor Video. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TRMR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TRMR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Tremor Video, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Tremor Video.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TRMR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 124.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TRMR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Tremor Video.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Tremor Video. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TRMR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TRMR are equal to 11.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Tremor Video operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TRMR is equal to 8.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $79 million for Tremor Video - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 53.407 million for Tremor Video is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Tremor Video at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Tremor reports 2Q loss   [Aug-03-17 09:55AM  Associated Press]
▶ Tremor Video Debuts 360 Degree Video Ad Units   [Jun-20-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Tremor Video, Inc. : June 16, 2017   [Jun-16-17 04:23PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Tremor reports 1Q loss   [07:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Tremor Video, Inc. : April 20, 2017   [Apr-20-17 02:33PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Tremor Video, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:35PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Tremor Video Names Katie Evans Chief Operating Officer   [Mar-06-17 09:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Tremor reports 4Q loss   [08:35AM  Associated Press]
▶ Kevin Thompson Joins Tremor Videos Board of Directors   [Jan-10-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Cherokee Inc (CHKE): Are Hedge Funds Right About This Stock?   [Dec-15-16 08:28AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Tremor Videos Seller Platform Selected by BBC Advertising   [Nov-14-16 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Tremor reports 2Q loss   [07:09PM  AP]
▶ Tremor Video Expands to Malaysia   [Jun-27-16 10:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Tremor Video Expands to New Zealand   [Apr-25-16 04:35PM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of TRMR Financial statements of TRMR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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