Intrinsic value of Terreno Realty - TRNO

Previous Close

$35.61

  Intrinsic Value

$4.35

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

  Value-price divergence*

-28%

Previous close

$35.61

 
Intrinsic value

$4.35

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-28%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as TRNO.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TRNO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.50
  19.20
  17.78
  16.50
  15.35
  14.32
  13.38
  12.55
  11.79
  11.11
  10.50
  9.95
  9.46
  9.01
  8.61
  8.25
  7.92
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
Revenue, $m
  108
  129
  152
  177
  204
  233
  264
  297
  332
  369
  408
  449
  491
  535
  581
  629
  679
  731
  785
  841
  899
  959
  1,022
  1,088
  1,156
  1,227
  1,301
  1,378
  1,458
  1,542
  1,629
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  86
  101
  118
  136
  155
  176
  198
  222
  246
  272
  299
  328
  357
  388
  420
  453
  488
  524
  561
  600
  640
  682
  726
  771
  818
  867
  919
  972
  1,028
  1,086
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
Total operating expenses, $m
  80
  94
  109
  127
  145
  164
  185
  208
  232
  256
  282
  309
  339
  368
  399
  432
  465
  500
  536
  574
  613
  653
  696
  740
  785
  833
  882
  935
  988
  1,044
  1,103
Operating income, $m
  28
  35
  42
  50
  59
  69
  79
  89
  101
  113
  126
  139
  153
  167
  182
  198
  214
  231
  249
  267
  286
  306
  327
  348
  370
  394
  418
  443
  469
  497
  526
EBITDA, $m
  62
  81
  97
  114
  132
  152
  174
  197
  221
  246
  273
  301
  330
  360
  392
  425
  459
  495
  532
  570
  610
  652
  695
  740
  787
  836
  887
  940
  995
  1,053
  1,113
Interest expense (income), $m
  12
  15
  18
  21
  25
  29
  34
  38
  43
  49
  54
  60
  66
  73
  80
  87
  94
  101
  109
  117
  126
  135
  144
  154
  163
  174
  185
  196
  207
  220
  232
Earnings before tax, $m
  15
  20
  24
  29
  34
  39
  45
  51
  58
  64
  71
  79
  86
  94
  103
  111
  120
  130
  140
  150
  160
  171
  183
  195
  207
  220
  233
  247
  262
  277
  293
Tax expense, $m
  0
  5
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
Net income, $m
  15
  15
  18
  21
  25
  29
  33
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  63
  69
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  133
  142
  151
  161
  170
  181
  191
  202
  214

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,279
  1,515
  1,784
  2,078
  2,397
  2,740
  3,107
  3,497
  3,909
  4,344
  4,800
  5,278
  5,777
  6,297
  6,839
  7,404
  7,990
  8,600
  9,234
  9,892
  10,577
  11,288
  12,028
  12,797
  13,598
  14,432
  15,301
  16,206
  17,151
  18,136
  19,164
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,265
  1,515
  1,784
  2,078
  2,397
  2,740
  3,107
  3,497
  3,909
  4,344
  4,800
  5,278
  5,777
  6,297
  6,839
  7,404
  7,990
  8,600
  9,234
  9,892
  10,577
  11,288
  12,028
  12,797
  13,598
  14,432
  15,301
  16,206
  17,151
  18,136
  19,164
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
Average production assets, $m
  1,168
  1,392
  1,640
  1,910
  2,204
  2,519
  2,856
  3,215
  3,594
  3,993
  4,413
  4,852
  5,310
  5,789
  6,287
  6,806
  7,345
  7,906
  8,488
  9,094
  9,723
  10,377
  11,057
  11,764
  12,501
  13,267
  14,066
  14,898
  15,766
  16,672
  17,617
Working capital, $m
  0
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -54
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -163
Total debt, $m
  415
  507
  606
  715
  833
  959
  1,095
  1,238
  1,391
  1,551
  1,719
  1,895
  2,080
  2,272
  2,472
  2,680
  2,896
  3,121
  3,355
  3,598
  3,851
  4,113
  4,386
  4,670
  4,966
  5,273
  5,594
  5,928
  6,277
  6,640
  7,019
Total liabilities, $m
  467
  559
  658
  767
  885
  1,011
  1,147
  1,290
  1,443
  1,603
  1,771
  1,947
  2,132
  2,324
  2,524
  2,732
  2,948
  3,173
  3,407
  3,650
  3,903
  4,165
  4,438
  4,722
  5,018
  5,325
  5,646
  5,980
  6,329
  6,692
  7,071
Total equity, $m
  812
  956
  1,126
  1,311
  1,513
  1,729
  1,961
  2,207
  2,467
  2,741
  3,029
  3,330
  3,645
  3,974
  4,316
  4,672
  5,042
  5,427
  5,826
  6,242
  6,674
  7,123
  7,590
  8,075
  8,581
  9,107
  9,655
  10,226
  10,822
  11,444
  12,092
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,279
  1,515
  1,784
  2,078
  2,398
  2,740
  3,108
  3,497
  3,910
  4,344
  4,800
  5,277
  5,777
  6,298
  6,840
  7,404
  7,990
  8,600
  9,233
  9,892
  10,577
  11,288
  12,028
  12,797
  13,599
  14,432
  15,301
  16,206
  17,151
  18,136
  19,163
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.511
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  15
  15
  18
  21
  25
  29
  33
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  63
  69
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  133
  142
  151
  161
  170
  181
  191
  202
  214
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  34
  46
  55
  64
  73
  84
  95
  107
  120
  133
  147
  162
  177
  193
  210
  227
  245
  264
  283
  303
  324
  346
  369
  392
  417
  442
  469
  497
  526
  556
  587
Funds from operations, $m
  51
  61
  72
  85
  98
  113
  128
  145
  162
  180
  199
  219
  240
  262
  285
  308
  333
  358
  385
  412
  441
  471
  502
  534
  568
  603
  639
  677
  717
  758
  801
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
Cash from operations, $m
  49
  63
  75
  87
  101
  116
  131
  148
  165
  184
  203
  223
  244
  266
  289
  313
  338
  364
  390
  418
  447
  477
  508
  541
  575
  610
  647
  685
  725
  767
  810
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -39
  -46
  -55
  -64
  -73
  -84
  -95
  -107
  -120
  -133
  -147
  -162
  -177
  -193
  -210
  -227
  -245
  -264
  -283
  -303
  -324
  -346
  -369
  -392
  -417
  -442
  -469
  -497
  -526
  -556
New CAPEX, $m
  -43
  -224
  -248
  -271
  -293
  -315
  -337
  -358
  -379
  -399
  -419
  -439
  -459
  -479
  -498
  -519
  -539
  -561
  -583
  -605
  -629
  -654
  -680
  -707
  -736
  -767
  -799
  -832
  -868
  -905
  -945
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -151
  -263
  -294
  -326
  -357
  -388
  -421
  -453
  -486
  -519
  -552
  -586
  -621
  -656
  -691
  -729
  -766
  -806
  -847
  -888
  -932
  -978
  -1,026
  -1,076
  -1,128
  -1,184
  -1,241
  -1,301
  -1,365
  -1,431
  -1,501
Free cash flow, $m
  -102
  -200
  -219
  -238
  -256
  -273
  -290
  -306
  -321
  -335
  -349
  -363
  -376
  -389
  -402
  -415
  -428
  -442
  -456
  -470
  -485
  -501
  -518
  -535
  -554
  -573
  -594
  -616
  -640
  -665
  -691
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  35
  92
  99
  109
  118
  127
  135
  144
  152
  160
  168
  176
  184
  192
  200
  208
  216
  225
  234
  243
  253
  263
  273
  284
  296
  308
  321
  334
  348
  363
  379
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  100
  143
  152
  165
  176
  188
  199
  209
  218
  227
  236
  244
  252
  260
  267
  275
  282
  290
  298
  306
  315
  324
  333
  344
  354
  366
  378
  391
  405
  419
  435
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  131
  235
  251
  274
  294
  315
  334
  353
  370
  387
  404
  420
  436
  452
  467
  483
  498
  515
  532
  549
  568
  587
  606
  628
  650
  674
  699
  725
  753
  782
  814
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  29
  35
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  123
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -79
  -158
  -170
  -186
  -201
  -217
  -231
  -246
  -260
  -274
  -288
  -301
  -315
  -328
  -342
  -356
  -370
  -385
  -400
  -416
  -432
  -449
  -467
  -486
  -505
  -526
  -548
  -571
  -596
  -622
  -649
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -109
  -138
  -150
  -163
  -175
  -187
  -199
  -211
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -255
  -266
  -277
  -288
  -300
  -312
  -324
  -337
  -350
  -364
  -378
  -393
  -409
  -426
  -444
  -463
  -483
  -503
  -525
Discount rate, %
 
  7.30
  7.67
  8.05
  8.45
  8.87
  9.32
  9.78
  10.27
  10.79
  11.32
  11.89
  12.49
  13.11
  13.77
  14.45
  15.18
  15.93
  16.73
  17.57
  18.45
  19.37
  20.34
  21.35
  22.42
  23.54
  24.72
  25.96
  27.25
  28.62
  30.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -101
  -119
  -119
  -118
  -115
  -110
  -104
  -96
  -88
  -80
  -71
  -62
  -54
  -46
  -38
  -31
  -25
  -20
  -16
  -12
  -9
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  92.0
  85.3
  79.6
  74.7
  70.5
  66.7
  63.4
  60.5
  57.9
  55.6
  53.5
  51.6
  49.8
  48.3
  46.8
  45.5
  44.2
  43.1
  42.0
  41.0
  40.0
  39.1
  38.3
  37.5
  36.7
  36.0
  35.3
  34.6
  34.0
  33.4

Terreno Realty Corporation engages in acquiring, owning, and operating real estate properties in Los Angeles area, northern New Jersey/New York City, San Francisco Bay area, Seattle area, Miami area, and Washington D.C./Baltimore area. The company invests in various industrial real estate, including warehouse/distribution, flex, and trans-shipment. As of December 31, 2011, it owned 47 buildings. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust. As a result, it would not be subject to corporate income tax on that portion of its net income that is distributed to shareholders. Terreno Realty Corporation was founded in 2009 and is based in San Francisco, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Terreno Realty (TRNO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 112.6
Price to Sales 15.6
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 34.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 281.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 115%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 33.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 51.1%
Total Debt to Equity 51.1%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Total Capital 1.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Equity 1.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 72.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.2%
EBITDA Margin 56.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.7%
Operating Margin 25.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Net Profit Margin 13.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 246.7%

TRNO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TRNO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $108 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Terreno Realty. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Terreno Realty. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TRNO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 19.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.3%, whose default value for TRNO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Terreno Realty, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Terreno Realty.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TRNO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 66.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $8 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TRNO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Terreno Realty.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Terreno Realty. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TRNO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TRNO are equal to 1081.5%.

Life of production assets of 34.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Terreno Realty operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TRNO is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $812 million for Terreno Realty - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 46.722 million for Terreno Realty is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Terreno Realty at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Terreno reports 2Q results   [Aug-02-17 06:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ Terreno reports 1Q results   [May-04-17 05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ 6 Stocks Trading Up With Unusual Volume   [Mar-16-17 01:15PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Terreno Realty Corporation Announces Leases in Los Angeles   [Dec-28-16 09:15AM  Business Wire]
▶ Is Terreno Realty Corporation (TRNO) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-14-16 11:23AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ What Hedge Fund Sentiment Says about HudBay Minerals Inc (HBM)?   [Nov-25-16 04:37PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Terreno Realty Corporation Announces Lease in Kent, WA   [Sep-27-16 09:15AM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of TRNO Financial statements of TRNO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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