Intrinsic value of Transcat - TRNS

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$11.90

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$11.90

 
Intrinsic value

$230.79

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TRNS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.61
  26.70
  24.53
  22.58
  20.82
  19.24
  17.81
  16.53
  15.38
  14.34
  13.41
  12.57
  11.81
  11.13
  10.52
  9.96
  9.47
  9.02
  8.62
  8.26
  7.93
  7.64
  7.37
  7.14
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.14
  6.02
Revenue, $m
  122
  155
  192
  236
  285
  340
  400
  467
  538
  616
  698
  786
  879
  977
  1,079
  1,187
  1,299
  1,416
  1,538
  1,665
  1,798
  1,935
  2,078
  2,226
  2,380
  2,540
  2,707
  2,880
  3,060
  3,248
  3,444
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  77
  95
  115
  139
  165
  194
  225
  259
  296
  335
  374
  418
  465
  514
  565
  619
  675
  733
  793
  856
  921
  989
  1,060
  1,133
  1,210
  1,289
  1,372
  1,457
  1,547
  1,640
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  57
  59
  60
  62
  63
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  90
  92
  94
  96
  99
  101
  104
  106
  109
  112
  115
  117
Total operating expenses, $m
  116
  134
  154
  175
  201
  228
  259
  292
  327
  366
  407
  447
  493
  542
  593
  646
  702
  760
  820
  883
  948
  1,015
  1,085
  1,159
  1,234
  1,314
  1,395
  1,481
  1,569
  1,662
  1,757
Operating income, $m
  6
  21
  39
  60
  85
  112
  142
  175
  211
  250
  291
  338
  385
  434
  486
  540
  597
  657
  718
  783
  850
  919
  992
  1,067
  1,145
  1,227
  1,311
  1,399
  1,491
  1,587
  1,686
EBITDA, $m
  10
  26
  44
  66
  91
  119
  150
  184
  221
  261
  303
  348
  396
  447
  500
  556
  614
  675
  738
  804
  873
  944
  1,019
  1,096
  1,176
  1,260
  1,346
  1,437
  1,531
  1,629
  1,731
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
Earnings before tax, $m
  6
  20
  38
  59
  83
  109
  139
  171
  206
  244
  285
  331
  377
  425
  476
  529
  585
  643
  704
  767
  832
  900
  971
  1,045
  1,122
  1,201
  1,284
  1,370
  1,460
  1,554
  1,651
Tax expense, $m
  2
  5
  10
  16
  22
  30
  37
  46
  56
  66
  77
  89
  102
  115
  129
  143
  158
  174
  190
  207
  225
  243
  262
  282
  303
  324
  347
  370
  394
  420
  446
Net income, $m
  4
  15
  28
  43
  60
  80
  101
  125
  151
  178
  208
  242
  275
  311
  348
  386
  427
  469
  514
  560
  608
  657
  709
  763
  819
  877
  937
  1,000
  1,066
  1,134
  1,206

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  77
  96
  120
  147
  178
  212
  250
  291
  335
  384
  435
  490
  548
  608
  672
  739
  809
  882
  959
  1,038
  1,120
  1,206
  1,294
  1,387
  1,483
  1,583
  1,686
  1,794
  1,907
  2,024
  2,146
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  76
  96
  120
  147
  178
  212
  250
  291
  335
  384
  435
  490
  548
  608
  672
  739
  809
  882
  959
  1,038
  1,120
  1,206
  1,294
  1,387
  1,483
  1,583
  1,686
  1,794
  1,907
  2,024
  2,146
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.605
  1.615
  1.600
  1.605
  1.601
  1.604
  1.600
  1.605
  1.606
  1.604
  1.605
  1.604
  1.604
  1.607
  1.606
  1.606
  1.606
  1.605
  1.604
  1.604
  1.605
  1.604
  1.606
  1.605
  1.605
  1.605
  1.606
  1.605
  1.605
  1.605
  1.605
Average production assets, $m
  17
  21
  26
  32
  38
  46
  54
  63
  73
  83
  94
  106
  119
  132
  146
  160
  175
  191
  208
  225
  243
  261
  280
  300
  321
  343
  365
  389
  413
  438
  465
Working capital, $m
  10
  11
  14
  17
  21
  25
  30
  35
  40
  46
  52
  58
  65
  72
  80
  88
  96
  105
  114
  123
  133
  143
  154
  165
  176
  188
  200
  213
  226
  240
  255
Total debt, $m
  19
  29
  41
  55
  70
  87
  106
  126
  149
  173
  199
  226
  255
  285
  317
  351
  386
  422
  460
  500
  541
  584
  628
  674
  722
  772
  824
  878
  934
  993
  1,054
Total liabilities, $m
  38
  48
  60
  74
  89
  106
  125
  145
  168
  192
  218
  245
  274
  304
  336
  370
  405
  441
  479
  519
  560
  603
  647
  693
  741
  791
  843
  897
  953
  1,012
  1,073
Total equity, $m
  39
  48
  60
  74
  89
  106
  125
  145
  168
  192
  218
  245
  274
  304
  336
  370
  405
  441
  479
  519
  560
  603
  647
  693
  741
  791
  843
  897
  953
  1,012
  1,073
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  77
  96
  120
  148
  178
  212
  250
  290
  336
  384
  436
  490
  548
  608
  672
  740
  810
  882
  958
  1,038
  1,120
  1,206
  1,294
  1,386
  1,482
  1,582
  1,686
  1,794
  1,906
  2,024
  2,146
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.487
  0.610
  0.680
  0.740
  0.790
  0.820
  0.850
  0.870
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  15
  28
  43
  60
  80
  101
  125
  151
  178
  208
  242
  275
  311
  348
  386
  427
  469
  514
  560
  608
  657
  709
  763
  819
  877
  937
  1,000
  1,066
  1,134
  1,206
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
Funds from operations, $m
  13
  20
  33
  49
  67
  87
  109
  134
  161
  189
  220
  252
  287
  323
  362
  402
  444
  488
  534
  581
  631
  682
  736
  792
  850
  910
  973
  1,038
  1,106
  1,177
  1,250
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
Cash from operations, $m
  11
  21
  30
  46
  63
  83
  105
  129
  155
  184
  214
  246
  280
  316
  354
  394
  436
  479
  525
  572
  621
  672
  725
  781
  838
  898
  960
  1,025
  1,092
  1,163
  1,236
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -18
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -33
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
Free cash flow, $m
  -7
  15
  23
  37
  54
  72
  92
  115
  140
  166
  195
  225
  257
  291
  327
  365
  405
  447
  490
  535
  582
  630
  681
  734
  789
  846
  905
  966
  1,031
  1,098
  1,167
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  7
  10
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  7
  10
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  25
  35
  51
  69
  89
  111
  136
  162
  190
  221
  252
  286
  322
  359
  399
  440
  483
  528
  574
  623
  673
  726
  780
  837
  895
  957
  1,020
  1,087
  1,156
  1,228
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -5
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  16
  23
  37
  54
  72
  92
  115
  140
  166
  195
  225
  257
  291
  327
  365
  405
  447
  490
  535
  582
  630
  681
  734
  789
  846
  905
  966
  1,031
  1,098
  1,167
Discount rate, %
 
  4.90
  5.15
  5.40
  5.67
  5.96
  6.25
  6.57
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  15
  21
  32
  43
  54
  64
  74
  82
  89
  94
  97
  98
  97
  95
  91
  86
  79
  72
  64
  56
  48
  41
  34
  27
  22
  17
  13
  9
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Transcat, Inc. provides calibration and laboratory instrument services in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Distribution and Service. The Service segment offers calibration, repair, inspection, analytical qualifications, preventative maintenance, and other related services. This segment also provides three dimensional parts inspection, as well as repair and consulting services. In addition, it offers CalTrak, a proprietary document and asset management system that is used to manage the workflow of its calibration service centers and customersÂ’ assets; CalTrak Online, which provides its customers with Web-based asset management capability, as well as an off-site archive of calibration and other service records; and Compliance, Control and Cost, a Web-based customer portal and asset management tool. The Distribution segment distributes approximately 100,000 test, measurement, and control instruments for customersÂ’ test and measurement instrumentation needs. This segment markets and sells its products through direct marketing, Website, Web-based advertising, outbound sales, and an inbound call center. The company serves provides services and products to highly regulated industries, principally life science, which includes companies in the pharmaceutical, medical device, and biotechnology industries; and additional industries, including industrial manufacturing, energy and utilities, chemical manufacturing, and other industries that require accuracy in processes and confirmation of the capabilities of their equipment. Transcat, Inc. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Rochester, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Transcat (TRNS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.6
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 48.7%
Total Debt to Equity 48.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Return On Total Capital 7.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Return On Equity 11%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 23.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.1%
EBITDA Margin 8.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Operating Margin 4.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Net Profit Margin 3.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

TRNS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TRNS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $122 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Transcat. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Transcat. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TRNS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 26.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.9%, whose default value for TRNS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Transcat, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Transcat.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TRNS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 50%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $56 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TRNS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Transcat.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Transcat. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TRNS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TRNS are equal to 13.5%.

Life of production assets of 10.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Transcat operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TRNS is equal to 7.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $39 million for Transcat - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 7.076 million for Transcat is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Transcat at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Transcat, Inc. : April 19, 2017   [Apr-19-17 02:39PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Transcat Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2016 Results   [May-17-16 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Transcat, Inc. to Present at 28th Annual ROTH Conference   [Mar-02-16 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Transcat Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results   [Oct-26  04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Transcat Acquires Anmar Metrology, Inc.   [Aug-24  09:10AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 10-Q for Transcat, Inc.   [Aug-10  08:13PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for Transcat, Inc.   [Jun-27  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for Transcat, Inc.   [Feb-08  07:07PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Small Cap Profiles: OPXA, NEWC, TRNS, MLER   [Dec-11  10:35AM  Accesswire]
▶ Transcat Launches New Web 3.0 Platform   [Dec-01  02:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Transcat (TRNS) Upgraded From Hold to Buy   [Nov-17  09:21AM  at TheStreet]
▶ 10-Q for Transcat, Inc.   [Nov-12  07:09PM  Company Spotlight]
Stock chart of TRNS Financial statements of TRNS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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