Intrinsic value of Tower Semiconductor - TSEM

Previous Close

$34.09

  Intrinsic Value

$55.06

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+62%

Previous close

$34.09

 
Intrinsic value

$55.06

 
Up/down potential

+62%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of TSEM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  30.07
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.84
  7.56
  7.30
  7.07
  6.87
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.59
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
Revenue, $m
  1,250
  1,361
  1,477
  1,598
  1,723
  1,853
  1,988
  2,129
  2,275
  2,427
  2,585
  2,750
  2,921
  3,099
  3,285
  3,478
  3,680
  3,891
  4,111
  4,340
  4,580
  4,831
  5,093
  5,367
  5,654
  5,954
  6,269
  6,598
  6,943
  7,304
  7,683
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  683
  741
  802
  865
  930
  998
  1,068
  1,142
  1,218
  1,297
  1,379
  1,465
  1,554
  1,647
  1,744
  1,845
  1,951
  2,061
  2,176
  2,297
  2,422
  2,554
  2,691
  2,835
  2,986
  3,143
  3,308
  3,481
  3,663
  3,852
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  417
  428
  438
  449
  460
  472
  484
  496
  508
  521
  534
  547
  561
  575
  589
  604
  619
  635
  651
  667
  684
  701
  718
  736
  755
  773
  793
  813
  833
  854
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,024
  1,100
  1,169
  1,240
  1,314
  1,390
  1,470
  1,552
  1,638
  1,726
  1,818
  1,913
  2,012
  2,115
  2,222
  2,333
  2,449
  2,570
  2,696
  2,827
  2,964
  3,106
  3,255
  3,409
  3,571
  3,741
  3,916
  4,101
  4,294
  4,496
  4,706
Operating income, $m
  226
  261
  308
  358
  409
  463
  519
  577
  638
  701
  767
  837
  909
  984
  1,063
  1,145
  1,231
  1,320
  1,415
  1,513
  1,616
  1,725
  1,838
  1,958
  2,083
  2,214
  2,352
  2,497
  2,649
  2,809
  2,977
EBITDA, $m
  424
  386
  444
  504
  567
  632
  701
  772
  846
  923
  1,004
  1,088
  1,175
  1,267
  1,362
  1,462
  1,566
  1,675
  1,789
  1,909
  2,034
  2,165
  2,303
  2,447
  2,598
  2,757
  2,924
  3,098
  3,282
  3,475
  3,677
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  44
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
  113
  119
Earnings before tax, $m
  211
  250
  296
  343
  392
  444
  498
  553
  612
  672
  736
  803
  872
  944
  1,019
  1,098
  1,180
  1,266
  1,357
  1,451
  1,551
  1,655
  1,764
  1,878
  1,998
  2,125
  2,257
  2,396
  2,542
  2,696
  2,858
Tax expense, $m
  2
  68
  80
  93
  106
  120
  134
  149
  165
  182
  199
  217
  235
  255
  275
  296
  319
  342
  366
  392
  419
  447
  476
  507
  540
  574
  609
  647
  686
  728
  772
Net income, $m
  204
  183
  216
  250
  286
  324
  363
  404
  447
  491
  537
  586
  636
  689
  744
  801
  862
  925
  990
  1,060
  1,132
  1,208
  1,288
  1,371
  1,459
  1,551
  1,648
  1,749
  1,856
  1,968
  2,086

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  355
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,380
  1,116
  1,211
  1,310
  1,412
  1,519
  1,630
  1,745
  1,865
  1,990
  2,119
  2,254
  2,394
  2,540
  2,692
  2,851
  3,016
  3,189
  3,369
  3,557
  3,754
  3,960
  4,174
  4,399
  4,634
  4,881
  5,138
  5,408
  5,691
  5,987
  6,297
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,025
  1,116
  1,211
  1,310
  1,412
  1,519
  1,630
  1,745
  1,865
  1,990
  2,119
  2,254
  2,394
  2,540
  2,692
  2,851
  3,016
  3,189
  3,369
  3,557
  3,754
  3,960
  4,174
  4,399
  4,634
  4,881
  5,138
  5,408
  5,691
  5,987
  6,297
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
Average production assets, $m
  570
  621
  674
  729
  786
  845
  907
  971
  1,038
  1,107
  1,179
  1,254
  1,332
  1,413
  1,498
  1,586
  1,678
  1,774
  1,874
  1,979
  2,088
  2,203
  2,322
  2,447
  2,578
  2,715
  2,859
  3,009
  3,166
  3,331
  3,503
Working capital, $m
  451
  157
  170
  184
  198
  213
  229
  245
  262
  279
  297
  316
  336
  356
  378
  400
  423
  447
  473
  499
  527
  556
  586
  617
  650
  685
  721
  759
  798
  840
  884
Total debt, $m
  344
  352
  412
  474
  538
  605
  674
  746
  821
  899
  981
  1,065
  1,153
  1,244
  1,339
  1,439
  1,542
  1,650
  1,763
  1,881
  2,004
  2,133
  2,267
  2,408
  2,555
  2,709
  2,871
  3,039
  3,216
  3,402
  3,596
Total liabilities, $m
  690
  698
  758
  820
  884
  951
  1,020
  1,092
  1,167
  1,245
  1,327
  1,411
  1,499
  1,590
  1,685
  1,785
  1,888
  1,996
  2,109
  2,227
  2,350
  2,479
  2,613
  2,754
  2,901
  3,055
  3,217
  3,385
  3,562
  3,748
  3,942
Total equity, $m
  690
  417
  453
  490
  528
  568
  610
  653
  698
  744
  793
  843
  895
  950
  1,007
  1,066
  1,128
  1,193
  1,260
  1,331
  1,404
  1,481
  1,561
  1,645
  1,733
  1,825
  1,922
  2,023
  2,128
  2,239
  2,355
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,380
  1,115
  1,211
  1,310
  1,412
  1,519
  1,630
  1,745
  1,865
  1,989
  2,120
  2,254
  2,394
  2,540
  2,692
  2,851
  3,016
  3,189
  3,369
  3,558
  3,754
  3,960
  4,174
  4,399
  4,634
  4,880
  5,139
  5,408
  5,690
  5,987
  6,297
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.499
  0.840
  0.910
  0.970
  1.020
  1.060
  1.110
  1.140
  1.180
  1.210
  1.240
  1.260
  1.290
  1.310
  1.330
  1.350
  1.370
  1.380
  1.400
  1.410
  1.430
  1.440
  1.450
  1.460
  1.470
  1.480
  1.490
  1.500
  1.510
  1.520
  1.530
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.327
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  204
  183
  216
  250
  286
  324
  363
  404
  447
  491
  537
  586
  636
  689
  744
  801
  862
  925
  990
  1,060
  1,132
  1,208
  1,288
  1,371
  1,459
  1,551
  1,648
  1,749
  1,856
  1,968
  2,086
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  198
  125
  135
  146
  158
  170
  182
  195
  208
  222
  236
  251
  266
  283
  300
  317
  336
  355
  375
  396
  418
  441
  464
  489
  516
  543
  572
  602
  633
  666
  701
Funds from operations, $m
  299
  308
  351
  397
  444
  494
  545
  599
  655
  713
  774
  837
  903
  972
  1,043
  1,119
  1,197
  1,279
  1,365
  1,455
  1,550
  1,648
  1,752
  1,861
  1,974
  2,094
  2,219
  2,351
  2,489
  2,634
  2,787
Change in working capital, $m
  -28
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
Cash from operations, $m
  327
  295
  338
  383
  430
  479
  530
  583
  638
  695
  755
  818
  883
  951
  1,022
  1,096
  1,174
  1,255
  1,340
  1,429
  1,522
  1,620
  1,722
  1,829
  1,942
  2,059
  2,183
  2,313
  2,449
  2,593
  2,743
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -114
  -124
  -135
  -146
  -157
  -169
  -181
  -194
  -208
  -221
  -236
  -251
  -266
  -283
  -300
  -317
  -336
  -355
  -375
  -396
  -418
  -441
  -464
  -489
  -516
  -543
  -572
  -602
  -633
  -666
New CAPEX, $m
  -218
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -173
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -227
  -165
  -177
  -190
  -203
  -216
  -231
  -245
  -261
  -277
  -293
  -311
  -329
  -347
  -368
  -388
  -409
  -432
  -455
  -480
  -505
  -532
  -561
  -589
  -620
  -653
  -686
  -722
  -759
  -798
  -839
Free cash flow, $m
  100
  130
  161
  193
  227
  262
  299
  337
  377
  419
  462
  507
  554
  603
  655
  709
  765
  823
  885
  949
  1,017
  1,088
  1,162
  1,240
  1,321
  1,407
  1,497
  1,591
  1,691
  1,795
  1,904
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  37
  56
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  76
  56
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  183
  186
  220
  255
  291
  329
  368
  409
  452
  497
  543
  591
  642
  695
  750
  808
  868
  932
  998
  1,067
  1,140
  1,216
  1,296
  1,380
  1,468
  1,561
  1,658
  1,760
  1,867
  1,980
  2,099
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -293
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  307
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  459
  185
  218
  253
  289
  327
  366
  407
  450
  495
  541
  589
  640
  693
  749
  806
  867
  930
  997
  1,066
  1,139
  1,216
  1,296
  1,380
  1,469
  1,562
  1,659
  1,762
  1,869
  1,983
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  440
  169
  190
  208
  224
  237
  247
  255
  259
  259
  257
  252
  243
  233
  220
  205
  189
  171
  153
  136
  118
  101
  85
  70
  57
  46
  36
  27
  20
  15
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Tower Semiconductor Ltd. operates as an independent semiconductor foundry focused primarily on specialty process technologies. The Company focuses on producing integrated circuits (ICs) based on the design specifications of its customers. The Company manufactures semiconductors for its customers primarily based on third-party designs. It offers process manufacture geometries of 0.35, 0.50, 0.55, 0.60, 0.80-micron and above on 150 millimeter wafers, 0.35, 0.18. 0.16, 0.13 and 0.11-micron on 200 millimeter wafers, and 65 nanometer and 45 nanometer on 300 millimeter wafers. It also provides design support and technical services. The Company's ICs are incorporated into a range of products in markets, including consumer electronics, personal computers, communications, automotive, industrial and medical device products. The Company has manufacturing facilities in the United States, Israel and Japan.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Tower Semiconductor (TSEM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.5
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book 4.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 29.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 30.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 32.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 21.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 42.9%
Total Debt to Equity 49.9%
Interest Coverage 22
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 18.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 23.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Return On Equity 37.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.8%
EBITDA Margin 33.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.5%
Operating Margin 18.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Net Profit Margin 16.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Effective Tax Rate 0.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.1%
Payout Ratio 1.5%

TSEM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TSEM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1250 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Tower Semiconductor. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Tower Semiconductor. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TSEM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TSEM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Tower Semiconductor, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Tower Semiconductor.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TSEM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 50.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $407 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TSEM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Tower Semiconductor.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Tower Semiconductor. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TSEM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TSEM are equal to 45.6%.

Life of production assets of 2.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Tower Semiconductor operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TSEM is equal to 11.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $690 million for Tower Semiconductor - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 93.603 million for Tower Semiconductor is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Tower Semiconductor at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.

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Financial statements of TSEM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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