Intrinsic value of Townsquare Media Cl A - TSQ

Previous Close

$9.93

  Intrinsic Value

$25.11

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+153%

  Value-price divergence*

+314%

Previous close

$9.93

 
Intrinsic value

$25.11

 
Up/down potential

+153%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+314%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TSQ stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.23
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  517
  527
  539
  553
  569
  586
  605
  626
  648
  672
  698
  725
  755
  786
  819
  855
  892
  932
  974
  1,018
  1,065
  1,114
  1,166
  1,221
  1,279
  1,340
  1,404
  1,472
  1,543
  1,617
  1,696
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  388
  396
  406
  416
  428
  441
  455
  470
  486
  504
  494
  514
  535
  558
  582
  607
  634
  663
  693
  725
  758
  794
  831
  870
  912
  955
  1,001
  1,049
  1,100
  1,154
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  66
  67
  69
  71
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  93
  95
  97
  100
  102
  105
  107
  110
  113
  116
  119
  122
  125
  128
  131
  134
Total operating expenses, $m
  443
  454
  463
  475
  487
  500
  515
  531
  548
  566
  586
  578
  600
  623
  648
  675
  702
  731
  763
  795
  830
  865
  904
  944
  986
  1,031
  1,077
  1,126
  1,177
  1,231
  1,288
Operating income, $m
  74
  74
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  148
  155
  163
  172
  181
  190
  201
  212
  223
  236
  249
  263
  277
  293
  310
  327
  346
  365
  386
  408
EBITDA, $m
  98
  125
  128
  131
  135
  140
  145
  150
  156
  163
  171
  178
  187
  196
  206
  217
  228
  240
  253
  266
  280
  296
  312
  329
  347
  366
  386
  408
  430
  454
  479
Interest expense (income), $m
  32
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
Earnings before tax, $m
  40
  43
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  135
  142
  150
  159
  168
  178
  188
  199
  211
  223
  236
  250
  265
  280
  297
Tax expense, $m
  17
  12
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  18
  19
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  76
  80
Net income, $m
  23
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  51
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  123
  130
  137
  145
  154
  163
  172
  182
  193
  205
  216

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  52
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,081
  1,050
  1,075
  1,102
  1,133
  1,168
  1,205
  1,246
  1,291
  1,339
  1,390
  1,445
  1,504
  1,566
  1,632
  1,703
  1,778
  1,856
  1,940
  2,028
  2,121
  2,220
  2,324
  2,433
  2,548
  2,669
  2,797
  2,931
  3,073
  3,222
  3,378
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,029
  1,050
  1,075
  1,102
  1,133
  1,168
  1,205
  1,246
  1,291
  1,339
  1,390
  1,445
  1,504
  1,566
  1,632
  1,703
  1,778
  1,856
  1,940
  2,028
  2,121
  2,220
  2,324
  2,433
  2,548
  2,669
  2,797
  2,931
  3,073
  3,222
  3,378
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.502
  0.502
  0.501
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
Average production assets, $m
  653
  666
  681
  699
  719
  740
  764
  790
  818
  849
  881
  916
  953
  993
  1,035
  1,080
  1,127
  1,177
  1,230
  1,286
  1,345
  1,407
  1,473
  1,542
  1,616
  1,692
  1,773
  1,859
  1,948
  2,043
  2,142
Working capital, $m
  58
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
Total debt, $m
  571
  579
  595
  613
  634
  657
  682
  709
  739
  771
  805
  841
  880
  922
  966
  1,013
  1,063
  1,115
  1,171
  1,230
  1,292
  1,357
  1,426
  1,499
  1,576
  1,657
  1,742
  1,831
  1,926
  2,025
  2,129
Total liabilities, $m
  691
  700
  716
  734
  755
  778
  803
  830
  860
  892
  926
  962
  1,001
  1,043
  1,087
  1,134
  1,184
  1,236
  1,292
  1,351
  1,413
  1,478
  1,547
  1,620
  1,697
  1,778
  1,863
  1,952
  2,047
  2,146
  2,250
Total equity, $m
  389
  351
  359
  368
  379
  390
  403
  416
  431
  447
  464
  483
  502
  523
  545
  569
  594
  620
  648
  677
  709
  741
  776
  813
  851
  892
  934
  979
  1,026
  1,076
  1,128
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,080
  1,051
  1,075
  1,102
  1,134
  1,168
  1,206
  1,246
  1,291
  1,339
  1,390
  1,445
  1,503
  1,566
  1,632
  1,703
  1,778
  1,856
  1,940
  2,028
  2,122
  2,219
  2,323
  2,433
  2,548
  2,670
  2,797
  2,931
  3,073
  3,222
  3,378
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.468
  1.650
  1.660
  1.670
  1.670
  1.680
  1.690
  1.700
  1.710
  1.720
  1.730
  1.740
  1.750
  1.760
  1.770
  1.780
  1.790
  1.800
  1.810
  1.820
  1.820
  1.830
  1.840
  1.850
  1.850
  1.860
  1.860
  1.870
  1.880
  1.880
  1.890
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.328
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  23
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  51
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  123
  130
  137
  145
  154
  163
  172
  182
  193
  205
  216
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  52
  52
  53
  53
  54
  55
  56
  57
  58
  59
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
Funds from operations, $m
  44
  83
  84
  86
  88
  91
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  167
  177
  186
  197
  208
  219
  231
  244
  258
  273
  288
Change in working capital, $m
  -16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  60
  82
  84
  86
  88
  91
  94
  97
  100
  104
  109
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  175
  185
  195
  206
  218
  230
  243
  256
  271
  286
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
New CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -21
  -35
  -37
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -80
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -159
  -167
Free cash flow, $m
  39
  48
  46
  46
  45
  45
  45
  45
  46
  47
  48
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  105
  111
  119
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -19
  15
  16
  18
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  104
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -20
  15
  16
  18
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  104
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  18
  62
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  134
  141
  150
  158
  168
  178
  188
  199
  211
  223
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -26
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  45
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  100
  54
  55
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  60
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  152
  161
  171
Discount rate, %
 
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.18
  22.24
  23.35
  24.52
  25.74
  27.03
  28.38
  29.80
  31.29
  32.85
  34.50
  36.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  92
  46
  41
  38
  34
  30
  27
  24
  21
  18
  14
  12
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Townsquare Media, Inc. operates as a media, entertainment, and digital marketing solutions company in small and mid-sized markets. The company's Local Advertising segment offers broadcast, digital, and mobile advertising services through its radio stations, Websites, radio stationsÂ’ online streams, and mobile applications. Its Live Events segment creates, promotes, and produces live events, including music concerts, music festivals, consumer expositions and trade shows, athletic events, and lifestyle events, as well as mobile amusement parks at fairs, and other forms of entertainment. This segment also offer event production services to third parties; and owns a proprietary ticketing platform. The company's Other Media and Entertainment segment provides digital marketing solutions, such as traditional and mobile-enabled Website development and hosting services, search engine and online directory optimization services, online reputation management, and social media management services under the Townsquare Interactive brand; e-commerce products to consumers and advertisers through its proprietary deal and auction platform; and digital advertising services. This segment also owns and operates a portfolio of 16 music and entertainment based national Websites. As of February 22, 2016, it owned and operated 309 radio stations and approximately 325 Websites in 66 markets in the United States; and approximately 550 live events the United States and Canada. The company was formerly known as Regent Communications, Inc. and changed its name to Townsquare Media, Inc. in May 2010. Townsquare Media, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Townsquare Media Cl A (TSQ)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9.3
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 40%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 16%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 145%
Total Debt to Equity 146.8%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Return On Total Capital 2.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Equity 6.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.5%
EBITDA Margin 18.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
Operating Margin 14.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Net Profit Margin 4.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Effective Tax Rate 42.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

TSQ stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TSQ stock intrinsic value calculation we used $517 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Townsquare Media Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Townsquare Media Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TSQ stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.8%, whose default value for TSQ is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Townsquare Media Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Townsquare Media Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TSQ stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 73.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $64 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TSQ stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.5% for Townsquare Media Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Townsquare Media Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TSQ stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TSQ are equal to 126.3%.

Life of production assets of 39.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Townsquare Media Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TSQ is equal to 2.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $389 million for Townsquare Media Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.539 million for Townsquare Media Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Townsquare Media Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Townsquare meets 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-09-17 12:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ Townsquare Announces Acquisition Of 6 Radio Stations   [Jul-07-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Townsquare reports 1Q loss   [May-09-17 08:56AM  Associated Press]
▶ Townsquare Announces Successful Loan Repricing   [Feb-08-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Townsquare Hires Andy Meyer To Lead Video Programming   [Jan-09-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is Townsquare Media Inc (TSQ) Worthy of Your Portfolio?   [Dec-20-16 02:42PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Madison Square Garden Takes 12% Stake in Townsquare Media   [08:55AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Townsquare to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [May-24-16 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ [$$] Barron's 2016 Roundtable, Part 3: 12 Stock Picks   [Jan-30-16 12:01AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Should You Buy Newtek Business Services, Inc (NEWT)?   [Nov-27  09:55AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of TSQ Financial statements of TSQ
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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