Intrinsic value of Toro - TTC

Previous Close

$62.18

  Intrinsic Value

$32.54

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-48%

  Value-price divergence*

-26%

Previous close

$62.18

 
Intrinsic value

$32.54

 
Up/down potential

-48%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-26%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TTC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.04
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,392
  2,440
  2,496
  2,560
  2,632
  2,712
  2,799
  2,895
  2,998
  3,109
  3,229
  3,356
  3,492
  3,637
  3,792
  3,955
  4,128
  4,312
  4,506
  4,711
  4,927
  5,156
  5,397
  5,651
  5,918
  6,200
  6,496
  6,809
  7,137
  7,483
  7,846
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,134
  2,183
  2,239
  2,301
  2,370
  2,446
  2,529
  2,618
  2,715
  2,818
  2,909
  3,027
  3,153
  3,287
  3,428
  3,579
  3,738
  3,906
  4,084
  4,271
  4,469
  4,678
  4,898
  5,130
  5,374
  5,631
  5,902
  6,187
  6,487
  6,802
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,056
  2,134
  2,183
  2,239
  2,301
  2,370
  2,446
  2,529
  2,618
  2,715
  2,818
  2,909
  3,027
  3,153
  3,287
  3,428
  3,579
  3,738
  3,906
  4,084
  4,271
  4,469
  4,678
  4,898
  5,130
  5,374
  5,631
  5,902
  6,187
  6,487
  6,802
Operating income, $m
  336
  305
  313
  321
  331
  342
  353
  366
  380
  394
  410
  447
  465
  484
  505
  527
  550
  574
  600
  627
  656
  687
  719
  752
  788
  826
  865
  907
  950
  996
  1,045
EBITDA, $m
  400
  366
  375
  384
  395
  407
  420
  435
  450
  467
  485
  504
  524
  546
  569
  594
  620
  647
  677
  707
  740
  774
  810
  848
  889
  931
  975
  1,022
  1,072
  1,123
  1,178
Interest expense (income), $m
  20
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  61
  66
  70
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  113
Earnings before tax, $m
  330
  287
  294
  301
  310
  319
  329
  340
  352
  365
  379
  413
  429
  446
  463
  482
  502
  524
  546
  570
  595
  621
  649
  678
  709
  741
  776
  812
  850
  890
  931
Tax expense, $m
  99
  78
  79
  81
  84
  86
  89
  92
  95
  99
  102
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  136
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  240
  251
Net income, $m
  231
  210
  215
  220
  226
  233
  240
  248
  257
  266
  277
  302
  313
  325
  338
  352
  367
  382
  399
  416
  434
  453
  474
  495
  518
  541
  566
  593
  620
  649
  680

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  274
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,385
  1,133
  1,159
  1,189
  1,223
  1,260
  1,300
  1,345
  1,392
  1,444
  1,500
  1,559
  1,622
  1,689
  1,761
  1,837
  1,918
  2,003
  2,093
  2,188
  2,289
  2,395
  2,507
  2,624
  2,749
  2,880
  3,017
  3,162
  3,315
  3,476
  3,644
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,111
  1,133
  1,159
  1,189
  1,223
  1,260
  1,300
  1,345
  1,392
  1,444
  1,500
  1,559
  1,622
  1,689
  1,761
  1,837
  1,918
  2,003
  2,093
  2,188
  2,289
  2,395
  2,507
  2,624
  2,749
  2,880
  3,017
  3,162
  3,315
  3,476
  3,644
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.153
  2.154
  2.154
  2.153
  2.152
  2.152
  2.153
  2.152
  2.154
  2.153
  2.153
  2.153
  2.153
  2.153
  2.153
  2.153
  2.152
  2.153
  2.153
  2.153
  2.152
  2.153
  2.153
  2.154
  2.153
  2.153
  2.153
  2.153
  2.153
  2.153
  2.153
Average production assets, $m
  337
  344
  352
  361
  371
  382
  395
  408
  423
  438
  455
  473
  492
  513
  535
  558
  582
  608
  635
  664
  695
  727
  761
  797
  834
  874
  916
  960
  1,006
  1,055
  1,106
Working capital, $m
  315
  63
  65
  67
  68
  71
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
  204
Total debt, $m
  351
  346
  365
  386
  411
  438
  468
  500
  535
  573
  614
  657
  703
  753
  805
  861
  920
  982
  1,048
  1,118
  1,191
  1,269
  1,351
  1,437
  1,528
  1,624
  1,725
  1,831
  1,943
  2,060
  2,184
Total liabilities, $m
  835
  830
  849
  870
  895
  922
  952
  984
  1,019
  1,057
  1,098
  1,141
  1,187
  1,237
  1,289
  1,345
  1,404
  1,466
  1,532
  1,602
  1,675
  1,753
  1,835
  1,921
  2,012
  2,108
  2,209
  2,315
  2,427
  2,544
  2,668
Total equity, $m
  550
  304
  311
  319
  328
  338
  348
  360
  373
  387
  402
  418
  435
  453
  472
  492
  514
  537
  561
  586
  613
  642
  672
  703
  737
  772
  809
  848
  888
  931
  977
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,385
  1,134
  1,160
  1,189
  1,223
  1,260
  1,300
  1,344
  1,392
  1,444
  1,500
  1,559
  1,622
  1,690
  1,761
  1,837
  1,918
  2,003
  2,093
  2,188
  2,288
  2,395
  2,507
  2,624
  2,749
  2,880
  3,018
  3,163
  3,315
  3,475
  3,645
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.638
  1.140
  1.170
  1.210
  1.250
  1.300
  1.340
  1.390
  1.430
  1.480
  1.530
  1.570
  1.620
  1.660
  1.710
  1.750
  1.790
  1.830
  1.870
  1.910
  1.940
  1.980
  2.010
  2.040
  2.070
  2.100
  2.130
  2.160
  2.190
  2.210
  2.240
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.248
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  231
  210
  215
  220
  226
  233
  240
  248
  257
  266
  277
  302
  313
  325
  338
  352
  367
  382
  399
  416
  434
  453
  474
  495
  518
  541
  566
  593
  620
  649
  680
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  64
  61
  62
  63
  64
  66
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
Funds from operations, $m
  418
  271
  276
  283
  290
  298
  307
  317
  328
  339
  351
  359
  372
  387
  403
  419
  437
  455
  475
  496
  518
  541
  565
  591
  618
  647
  677
  708
  741
  776
  813
Change in working capital, $m
  56
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
Cash from operations, $m
  362
  269
  275
  281
  288
  296
  305
  315
  325
  336
  348
  355
  369
  383
  399
  415
  432
  451
  470
  491
  512
  535
  559
  584
  611
  639
  669
  700
  733
  767
  804
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -41
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -127
New CAPEX, $m
  -51
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -39
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
Free cash flow, $m
  323
  222
  226
  230
  235
  240
  247
  254
  261
  269
  278
  282
  293
  304
  315
  328
  341
  355
  369
  385
  402
  419
  437
  457
  477
  499
  522
  546
  571
  597
  625
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -25
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -92
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -104
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  213
  238
  245
  252
  259
  268
  276
  286
  296
  307
  319
  326
  339
  353
  368
  383
  400
  417
  435
  455
  475
  497
  519
  543
  568
  595
  623
  652
  683
  715
  749
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -88
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  252
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  485
  238
  244
  250
  258
  266
  274
  283
  293
  304
  310
  322
  335
  348
  363
  378
  394
  411
  429
  448
  468
  489
  512
  535
  560
  586
  613
  642
  672
  704
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  465
  218
  212
  206
  200
  193
  185
  177
  168
  159
  147
  137
  127
  117
  107
  96
  86
  76
  66
  57
  48
  41
  34
  27
  22
  17
  13
  10
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Toro Company (Toro) is engaged in the designing, manufacturing, and marketing of professional turf maintenance equipment and services, turf irrigation systems, landscaping equipment and lighting products, snow and ice management products, agricultural micro-irrigation systems, rental and specialty construction equipment, and residential yard and snow thrower products. The Company operates through three segments: Professional, Residential and Distribution. Under the Professional segment, Toro designs professional turf, landscape and lighting, rental and specialty construction, snow and ice management, and agricultural products. The Residential segment provides products, such as riding products, home solutions products and snow thrower products. It manufactures and markets various walk power mower models. The Distribution segment consists of Company-owned domestic distributorship. Its brands include Toro, Exmark, BOSS, Irritrol, Hayter, Pope, Unique Lighting Systems and Lawn-Boy.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Toro (TTC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29.2
Price to Sales 2.8
Price to Book 12.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -8.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 12
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 59.8%
Total Debt to Equity 63.8%
Interest Coverage 18
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 18.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Return On Total Capital 26.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.6%
Return On Equity 45.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.8%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.7%
EBITDA Margin 17.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Operating Margin 14%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Net Profit Margin 9.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Effective Tax Rate 30%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.9%
Payout Ratio 28.6%

TTC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TTC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2392 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Toro. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Toro. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TTC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TTC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Toro, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Toro.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TTC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TTC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.5% for Toro.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Toro. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TTC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TTC are equal to 14.1%.

Life of production assets of 8.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Toro operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TTC is equal to 2.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $550 million for Toro - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 105.537 million for Toro is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Toro at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ IIROC Trade Resumption - TTC   [Oct-20-17 09:09AM  PR Newswire]
▶ IIROC Trading Halt - TTC   [08:01AM  CNW Group]
▶ The Toro Company Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Sep-19-17 04:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to The Toro Co. : September 14, 2017   [Sep-13-17 09:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Toro CEO Richard Olson named company chairman   [Sep-06-17 01:10PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ The Toro Co. Value Analysis (NYSE:TTC) : August 29, 2017   [Aug-28-17 09:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Toro beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Aug-24-17 09:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to The Toro Co. : June 12, 2017   [Jun-12-17 02:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Toro beats Street 2Q forecasts   [08:36AM  Associated Press]
▶ The Toro Company Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend   [May-16-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ The Toro Co. Value Analysis (NYSE:TTC) : April 19, 2017   [Apr-19-17 03:22PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cramer Remix: Why I'm standing alone on Coca-Cola   [Apr-07-17 07:19PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ The Toro Company Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Mar-21-17 02:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Toro tops Street 1Q forecasts   [08:39AM  Associated Press]
▶ Toro Exceeded Analyst Expectations for Q4 (TTC)   [Dec-09-16 02:36PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Toro to Announce Fiscal 2016 Results (TTC)   [02:25PM  at Investopedia]
Financial statements of TTC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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