Intrinsic value of Teletech Holdings - TTEC

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$30.80

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$30.80

 
Intrinsic value

$22.22

 
Up/down potential

-28%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TTEC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.93
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,275
  1,313
  1,343
  1,377
  1,416
  1,459
  1,506
  1,558
  1,613
  1,673
  1,737
  1,806
  1,879
  1,957
  2,040
  2,128
  2,221
  2,320
  2,424
  2,535
  2,651
  2,774
  2,904
  3,040
  3,184
  3,336
  3,495
  3,663
  3,840
  4,026
  4,222
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,210
  1,238
  1,269
  1,305
  1,344
  1,387
  1,434
  1,484
  1,539
  1,598
  1,649
  1,716
  1,787
  1,863
  1,943
  2,028
  2,118
  2,214
  2,315
  2,421
  2,533
  2,651
  2,776
  2,908
  3,046
  3,192
  3,345
  3,507
  3,676
  3,855
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,223
  1,210
  1,238
  1,269
  1,305
  1,344
  1,387
  1,434
  1,484
  1,539
  1,598
  1,649
  1,716
  1,787
  1,863
  1,943
  2,028
  2,118
  2,214
  2,315
  2,421
  2,533
  2,651
  2,776
  2,908
  3,046
  3,192
  3,345
  3,507
  3,676
  3,855
Operating income, $m
  53
  103
  105
  108
  112
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  157
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  202
  211
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  318
  334
  350
  367
EBITDA, $m
  122
  155
  159
  163
  168
  173
  178
  184
  191
  198
  206
  214
  222
  232
  241
  252
  263
  275
  287
  300
  314
  328
  344
  360
  377
  395
  414
  434
  455
  477
  500
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
Earnings before tax, $m
  50
  97
  99
  101
  104
  107
  110
  114
  118
  122
  126
  142
  147
  153
  158
  165
  171
  178
  185
  193
  201
  209
  218
  227
  237
  248
  259
  270
  282
  295
  309
Tax expense, $m
  13
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
Net income, $m
  34
  71
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  83
  86
  89
  92
  104
  108
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  146
  153
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  197
  206
  215
  225

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  57
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  846
  799
  817
  838
  861
  888
  916
  947
  981
  1,018
  1,057
  1,098
  1,143
  1,190
  1,241
  1,294
  1,351
  1,411
  1,475
  1,542
  1,613
  1,687
  1,766
  1,849
  1,937
  2,029
  2,126
  2,228
  2,336
  2,449
  2,568
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  789
  799
  817
  838
  861
  888
  916
  947
  981
  1,018
  1,057
  1,098
  1,143
  1,190
  1,241
  1,294
  1,351
  1,411
  1,475
  1,542
  1,613
  1,687
  1,766
  1,849
  1,937
  2,029
  2,126
  2,228
  2,336
  2,449
  2,568
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.616
  1.643
  1.644
  1.643
  1.645
  1.643
  1.644
  1.645
  1.644
  1.643
  1.643
  1.645
  1.644
  1.645
  1.644
  1.645
  1.644
  1.644
  1.643
  1.644
  1.644
  1.644
  1.644
  1.644
  1.644
  1.644
  1.644
  1.644
  1.644
  1.644
  1.644
Average production assets, $m
  201
  219
  224
  230
  237
  244
  252
  260
  269
  279
  290
  302
  314
  327
  341
  355
  371
  387
  405
  423
  443
  463
  485
  508
  532
  557
  584
  612
  641
  672
  705
Working capital, $m
  254
  151
  154
  158
  163
  168
  173
  179
  186
  192
  200
  208
  216
  225
  235
  245
  255
  267
  279
  291
  305
  319
  334
  350
  366
  384
  402
  421
  442
  463
  485
Total debt, $m
  217
  108
  117
  128
  141
  154
  169
  186
  203
  222
  243
  264
  288
  312
  339
  367
  396
  428
  461
  496
  533
  572
  613
  656
  702
  750
  801
  854
  910
  969
  1,031
Total liabilities, $m
  491
  417
  426
  437
  450
  463
  478
  495
  512
  531
  552
  573
  597
  621
  648
  676
  705
  737
  770
  805
  842
  881
  922
  965
  1,011
  1,059
  1,110
  1,163
  1,219
  1,278
  1,340
Total equity, $m
  355
  382
  390
  400
  412
  424
  438
  453
  469
  486
  505
  525
  546
  569
  593
  619
  646
  675
  705
  737
  771
  807
  844
  884
  926
  970
  1,016
  1,065
  1,117
  1,171
  1,227
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  846
  799
  816
  837
  862
  887
  916
  948
  981
  1,017
  1,057
  1,098
  1,143
  1,190
  1,241
  1,295
  1,351
  1,412
  1,475
  1,542
  1,613
  1,688
  1,766
  1,849
  1,937
  2,029
  2,126
  2,228
  2,336
  2,449
  2,567
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.611
  0.280
  0.300
  0.320
  0.340
  0.360
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.530
  0.550
  0.570
  0.590
  0.610
  0.630
  0.650
  0.670
  0.690
  0.710
  0.730
  0.740
  0.760
  0.770
  0.790
  0.800
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.378
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  34
  71
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  83
  86
  89
  92
  104
  108
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  146
  153
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  197
  206
  215
  225
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  69
  53
  54
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  64
  66
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
Funds from operations, $m
  70
  123
  126
  129
  132
  135
  139
  143
  148
  153
  158
  161
  167
  173
  180
  187
  195
  203
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  262
  273
  286
  299
  313
  327
  342
  358
Change in working capital, $m
  -38
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Cash from operations, $m
  108
  125
  122
  125
  127
  130
  134
  138
  142
  146
  151
  153
  158
  164
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  208
  217
  226
  236
  246
  257
  268
  281
  293
  307
  321
  336
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
New CAPEX, $m
  -51
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -100
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
Free cash flow, $m
  8
  80
  76
  77
  78
  79
  80
  82
  83
  85
  87
  87
  89
  92
  95
  98
  101
  105
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  176
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  105
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -74
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  20
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  13
  87
  86
  88
  90
  92
  95
  98
  101
  104
  108
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  199
  208
  218
  228
  238
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  79
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  60
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  140
  77
  78
  79
  80
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  89
  91
  94
  97
  100
  104
  108
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  181
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  134
  70
  67
  65
  62
  59
  56
  53
  50
  47
  42
  39
  36
  33
  29
  26
  23
  21
  18
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

TeleTech Holdings, Inc. provides customer engagement management solutions in the United States, the Philippines, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Canada. It operates through four segments: Customer Management Services, Customer Growth Services, Customer Technology Services, and Customer Strategy Services. The Customer Management Services segment offers customer experience delivery solutions, which integrate technology with customer experience professionals to optimize the customer experience across various channels and stages of the customer lifecycle from an onshore, offshore, or work-from-home environment. The Customer Growth Services segment provides technology-enabled sales and marketing solutions, including sales advisory, search engine optimization, digital demand generation, and lead qualification services, as well as acquisition sales, growth, and retention services. The Customer Technology Services segment offers operational and design consulting, systems integration, and cloud and on premise managed services, as well as designs, delivers, and maintains multichannel customer engagement platforms. The Customer Strategy Services segment provides the customer experience strategy, customer intelligence analytics, system and operational process optimization, and culture development and knowledge management services. The company serves automotive, communication, financial services, government, healthcare, logistics, media and entertainment, retail, technology, travel, and transportation industries. TeleTech Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Teletech Holdings (TTEC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 41.8
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -23.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 61.1%
Total Debt to Equity 61.1%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Total Capital 6.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Return On Equity 8.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.6%
EBITDA Margin 9.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Operating Margin 4.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Net Profit Margin 2.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 26%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.1%
Payout Ratio 52.9%

TTEC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TTEC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1287 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Teletech Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Teletech Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TTEC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TTEC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Teletech Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Teletech Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TTEC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TTEC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6% for Teletech Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Teletech Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TTEC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TTEC are equal to 16.7%.

Life of production assets of 5.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Teletech Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TTEC is equal to 11.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $434 million for Teletech Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 45.338 million for Teletech Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Teletech Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.


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Stock chart of TTEC Financial statements of TTEC Annual reports of TTEC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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