Intrinsic value of T2 Biosystems - TTOO

Previous Close

$4.15

  Intrinsic Value

$0.28

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-93%

Previous close

$4.15

 
Intrinsic value

$0.28

 
Up/down potential

-93%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of TTOO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  33.33
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  113
  118
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
Total operating expenses, $m
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  67
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  81
  84
  88
  90
  94
  98
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  123
  128
  134
  139
  145
  152
  158
Operating income, $m
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
EBITDA, $m
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -138
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  3
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
Earnings before tax, $m
  -55
  -55
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -148
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -55
  -55
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -148

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  73
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  90
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.235
  0.235
  0.222
  0.222
  0.211
  0.263
  0.250
  0.238
  0.238
  0.227
  0.217
  0.250
  0.240
  0.231
  0.222
  0.250
  0.241
  0.226
  0.250
  0.235
  0.229
  0.243
  0.237
  0.225
  0.238
  0.227
  0.239
  0.229
  0.235
  0.245
  0.232
Average production assets, $m
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
Working capital, $m
  65
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Total debt, $m
  41
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
Total liabilities, $m
  50
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
Total equity, $m
  39
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  89
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.051
  3.240
  3.370
  3.510
  3.660
  3.820
  3.980
  4.150
  4.310
  4.480
  4.650
  4.810
  4.980
  5.140
  5.290
  5.450
  5.600
  5.740
  5.880
  6.020
  6.150
  6.270
  6.400
  6.510
  6.630
  6.730
  6.840
  6.940
  7.030
  7.120
  7.210
Adjusted equity ratio
  -2.000
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -55
  -55
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -148
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
Funds from operations, $m
  -45
  -53
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -141
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  -46
  -53
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -140
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
Free cash flow, $m
  -51
  -55
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -142
  -148
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  11
  -34
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  90
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  52
  56
  54
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  72
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  8
  -90
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -148
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  72
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -18
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -140
  -146
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -17
  -49
  -48
  -46
  -45
  -43
  -42
  -40
  -38
  -36
  -33
  -31
  -29
  -26
  -24
  -21
  -19
  -17
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  5.4
  0.6
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

T2 Biosystems, Inc. is an in vitro diagnostics company engaged in developing a technology platform offering an alternative to diagnostic methodologies. The Company's T2 Magnetic Resonance platform (T2MR) enables detection of pathogens, biomarkers and other abnormalities in a range of unpurified patient sample types, including whole blood, plasma, serum, saliva, sputum and urine, and can detect cellular targets at limits of detection as one colony forming unit per milliliter (CFU/mL). The Company's initial development efforts target sepsis, hemostasis and Lyme disease. T2MR is a miniaturized, magnetic resonance-based approach that measures how water molecules react in the presence of magnetic fields. Its platform detects a range of targets, including molecular targets, such as deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA), immunodiagnostics, such as proteins, and a range of hemostasis measurements. The Company offers T2Dx Instrument (T2Dx) and the T2Candida Panel.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  T2 Biosystems (TTOO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.3
Price to Sales 31.6
Price to Book 3.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -2.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -2.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 33.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -37.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 38%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 73
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 102.6%
Total Debt to Equity 105.1%
Interest Coverage -17
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -58.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -54.9%
Return On Total Capital -69.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -63.2%
Return On Equity -127.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -99.8%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -75%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.9%
EBITDA Margin -1250%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -883.3%
Operating Margin -1275%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -902.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -1375%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -958.3%
Net Profit Margin -1375%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -958.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

TTOO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TTOO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by T2 Biosystems. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of T2 Biosystems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TTOO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TTOO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of T2 Biosystems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of T2 Biosystems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TTOO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 900%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $19 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TTOO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.3% for T2 Biosystems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for T2 Biosystems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TTOO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TTOO are equal to 300%.

Life of production assets of 6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in T2 Biosystems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TTOO is equal to -175%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $39 million for T2 Biosystems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.138 million for T2 Biosystems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of T2 Biosystems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ T2 Biosystems reports 3Q loss   [Nov-02-17 06:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ T2 Biosystems Announces Presentations at IDWeek 2017   [Sep-21-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ T2 Biosystems Prices Secondary Offering   [Sep-15-17 10:25AM  24/7 Wall St.]
▶ With FDA filing, Lexington firm targets a scourge of hospitals: sepsis   [Sep-12-17 06:20PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ T2 Biosystems Announces 11 New Patents Granted in 2017   [Aug-30-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ T2 Biosystems reports 2Q loss   [Aug-04-17 08:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to T2 Biosystems, Inc. : July 13, 2017   [Jul-13-17 04:48PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to T2 Biosystems, Inc. : May 25, 2017   [May-25-17 12:50PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to T2 Biosystems, Inc. : May 11, 2017   [May-11-17 05:39PM  Capital Cube]
▶ T2 Biosystems reports 1Q loss   [May-02-17 06:00PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to T2 Biosystems, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:37PM  Capital Cube]
▶ T2 Biosystems, Inc. Announces $50M Credit Facility   [Jan-05-17 06:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Should You Buy T2 Biosystems Inc (TTOO)?   [Dec-20-16 12:59PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ T2 Biosystems Reports Third Quarter Results   [04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ T2 Biosystems Announces Presentations at IDWeek 2016   [Oct-13-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Canon acquires 20% stake in Lexington diagnostics firm   [Sep-23-16 01:10PM  at bizjournals.com]
Financial statements of TTOO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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