Intrinsic value of Take-Two Interactive Software - TTWO

Previous Close

$127.78

  Intrinsic Value

$26.19

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-80%

Previous close

$127.78

 
Intrinsic value

$26.19

 
Up/down potential

-80%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of TTWO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  25.88
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,780
  1,829
  1,871
  1,919
  1,973
  2,033
  2,098
  2,170
  2,247
  2,330
  2,420
  2,516
  2,618
  2,726
  2,842
  2,964
  3,094
  3,232
  3,377
  3,531
  3,693
  3,864
  4,045
  4,235
  4,436
  4,647
  4,869
  5,103
  5,350
  5,609
  5,881
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,733
  1,770
  1,813
  1,860
  1,913
  1,971
  2,034
  2,103
  2,176
  2,255
  2,222
  2,312
  2,409
  2,511
  2,619
  2,734
  2,855
  2,984
  3,119
  3,263
  3,414
  3,573
  3,742
  3,919
  4,105
  4,302
  4,508
  4,726
  4,955
  5,196
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,688
  1,733
  1,770
  1,813
  1,860
  1,913
  1,971
  2,034
  2,103
  2,176
  2,255
  2,222
  2,312
  2,409
  2,511
  2,619
  2,734
  2,855
  2,984
  3,119
  3,263
  3,414
  3,573
  3,742
  3,919
  4,105
  4,302
  4,508
  4,726
  4,955
  5,196
Operating income, $m
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  119
  127
  135
  144
  154
  165
  293
  305
  318
  331
  346
  361
  377
  394
  412
  431
  451
  472
  494
  517
  542
  568
  595
  624
  654
  686
EBITDA, $m
  351
  234
  239
  245
  252
  260
  268
  277
  287
  298
  309
  321
  334
  348
  363
  379
  395
  413
  432
  451
  472
  494
  517
  541
  567
  594
  622
  652
  684
  717
  752
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  0
  3
  6
  9
  12
  17
  21
  26
  31
  37
  43
  49
  56
  63
  71
  80
  88
  98
  108
  118
  129
  140
  153
  166
  179
  193
  208
  224
  241
  258
Earnings before tax, $m
  77
  95
  98
  101
  104
  107
  111
  114
  119
  123
  128
  251
  256
  262
  268
  274
  281
  288
  296
  304
  313
  322
  331
  341
  352
  363
  374
  387
  399
  413
  427
Tax expense, $m
  10
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  68
  69
  71
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  87
  89
  92
  95
  98
  101
  104
  108
  111
  115
Net income, $m
  67
  69
  71
  73
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  183
  187
  191
  196
  200
  205
  211
  216
  222
  228
  235
  242
  249
  257
  265
  273
  282
  292
  301
  312

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,392
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,149
  3,672
  3,757
  3,853
  3,962
  4,082
  4,213
  4,357
  4,512
  4,680
  4,859
  5,051
  5,256
  5,475
  5,707
  5,953
  6,214
  6,490
  6,782
  7,090
  7,416
  7,760
  8,122
  8,505
  8,907
  9,331
  9,778
  10,248
  10,742
  11,262
  11,810
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,757
  3,672
  3,757
  3,853
  3,962
  4,082
  4,213
  4,357
  4,512
  4,680
  4,859
  5,051
  5,256
  5,475
  5,707
  5,953
  6,214
  6,490
  6,782
  7,090
  7,416
  7,760
  8,122
  8,505
  8,907
  9,331
  9,778
  10,248
  10,742
  11,262
  11,810
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.013
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
Average production assets, $m
  428
  614
  629
  645
  663
  683
  705
  729
  755
  783
  813
  845
  880
  916
  955
  996
  1,040
  1,086
  1,135
  1,186
  1,241
  1,298
  1,359
  1,423
  1,490
  1,561
  1,636
  1,715
  1,797
  1,885
  1,976
Working capital, $m
  509
  -1,203
  -1,231
  -1,263
  -1,298
  -1,338
  -1,381
  -1,428
  -1,479
  -1,533
  -1,592
  -1,655
  -1,722
  -1,794
  -1,870
  -1,951
  -2,036
  -2,127
  -2,222
  -2,323
  -2,430
  -2,543
  -2,662
  -2,787
  -2,919
  -3,058
  -3,204
  -3,358
  -3,520
  -3,691
  -3,870
Total debt, $m
  252
  51
  103
  164
  231
  306
  388
  478
  575
  679
  791
  911
  1,039
  1,175
  1,320
  1,474
  1,637
  1,809
  1,991
  2,184
  2,387
  2,601
  2,828
  3,066
  3,317
  3,582
  3,860
  4,154
  4,462
  4,787
  5,128
Total liabilities, $m
  2,145
  2,291
  2,344
  2,404
  2,472
  2,547
  2,629
  2,719
  2,816
  2,920
  3,032
  3,152
  3,280
  3,416
  3,561
  3,715
  3,877
  4,050
  4,232
  4,424
  4,628
  4,842
  5,068
  5,307
  5,558
  5,823
  6,101
  6,395
  6,703
  7,028
  7,369
Total equity, $m
  1,004
  1,381
  1,412
  1,449
  1,490
  1,535
  1,584
  1,638
  1,697
  1,760
  1,827
  1,899
  1,976
  2,058
  2,146
  2,238
  2,336
  2,440
  2,550
  2,666
  2,788
  2,918
  3,054
  3,198
  3,349
  3,509
  3,676
  3,853
  4,039
  4,235
  4,440
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,149
  3,672
  3,756
  3,853
  3,962
  4,082
  4,213
  4,357
  4,513
  4,680
  4,859
  5,051
  5,256
  5,474
  5,707
  5,953
  6,213
  6,490
  6,782
  7,090
  7,416
  7,760
  8,122
  8,505
  8,907
  9,332
  9,777
  10,248
  10,742
  11,263
  11,809
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.251
  0.040
  0.070
  0.110
  0.160
  0.200
  0.250
  0.290
  0.340
  0.390
  0.430
  0.480
  0.530
  0.570
  0.620
  0.660
  0.700
  0.740
  0.780
  0.820
  0.860
  0.890
  0.930
  0.960
  0.990
  1.020
  1.050
  1.080
  1.100
  1.130
  1.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.221
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  67
  69
  71
  73
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  183
  187
  191
  196
  200
  205
  211
  216
  222
  228
  235
  242
  249
  257
  265
  273
  282
  292
  301
  312
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  260
  138
  139
  139
  140
  140
  141
  142
  143
  144
  145
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
Funds from operations, $m
  233
  208
  210
  212
  215
  218
  222
  225
  229
  234
  238
  211
  216
  222
  227
  233
  240
  247
  254
  262
  270
  278
  287
  296
  306
  317
  328
  339
  351
  364
  378
Change in working capital, $m
  -98
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
Cash from operations, $m
  331
  231
  238
  244
  251
  258
  265
  272
  280
  288
  297
  274
  283
  293
  303
  314
  325
  337
  350
  363
  376
  391
  406
  422
  438
  456
  474
  493
  514
  535
  557
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
New CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -129
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -155
Free cash flow, $m
  202
  199
  203
  207
  211
  216
  220
  225
  230
  235
  241
  215
  221
  227
  234
  241
  249
  256
  265
  273
  282
  292
  302
  312
  323
  335
  347
  360
  374
  388
  403
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  43
  53
  60
  68
  75
  82
  90
  97
  104
  112
  120
  128
  136
  145
  154
  163
  172
  182
  193
  203
  215
  226
  238
  251
  265
  279
  293
  309
  325
  341
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -50
  43
  53
  60
  68
  75
  82
  90
  97
  104
  112
  120
  128
  136
  145
  154
  163
  172
  182
  193
  203
  215
  226
  238
  251
  265
  279
  293
  309
  325
  341
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  145
  241
  256
  267
  279
  291
  302
  314
  327
  340
  353
  335
  349
  363
  379
  395
  411
  429
  447
  466
  486
  506
  528
  551
  575
  600
  626
  653
  682
  712
  744
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -423
  -27
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -45
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -206
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  135
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  350
  224
  231
  238
  245
  253
  260
  268
  277
  285
  262
  272
  281
  292
  302
  313
  325
  337
  350
  363
  377
  392
  407
  423
  440
  458
  477
  496
  517
  538
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  335
  205
  201
  196
  190
  183
  176
  168
  159
  150
  125
  116
  107
  98
  89
  80
  71
  62
  54
  46
  39
  33
  27
  22
  17
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. is a developer, publisher and marketer of entertainment for consumers around the world. The Company develops and publishes products through its labels, Rockstar Games and 2K. It operates through publishing segment. It has a portfolio of software content for the hardware platforms in a range of genres, including action, adventure, family/casual, racing, role-playing, shooter, sports and strategy, which it distributes across the world. The Company's products are designed for console gaming systems, such as PlayStation 3 and PlayStation 4; Xbox 360 and Xbox One, and personal computers, including smartphones and tablets. Rockstar Games is the developer and publisher of Grand Theft Auto, as well as other franchises, including L.A. Noire, Max Payne, Midnight Club and Red Dead. 2K publishes owned and licensed titles across a range of genres. It has internal development studios in Canada, China, Czech Republic, the United Kingdom and the United States.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 195.7
Price to Sales 7.4
Price to Book 13.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 39.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 42.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 25.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -43.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 25.1%
Total Debt to Equity 25.1%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.7%
Return On Total Capital 5.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.5%
Return On Equity 8.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.3%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 42.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
EBITDA Margin 19.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Operating Margin 5.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.9%
Net Profit Margin 3.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.5%
Effective Tax Rate 13%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

TTWO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TTWO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1792.892 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Take-Two Interactive Software. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Take-Two Interactive Software. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TTWO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TTWO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Take-Two Interactive Software, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Take-Two Interactive Software.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TTWO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TTWO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Take-Two Interactive Software.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Take-Two Interactive Software. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TTWO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TTWO are equal to 33.6%.

Life of production assets of 34.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Take-Two Interactive Software operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TTWO is equal to -65.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1488.97 million for Take-Two Interactive Software - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 114.38 million for Take-Two Interactive Software is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Take-Two Interactive Software at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $14.6 billion.

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Financial statements of TTWO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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