Intrinsic value of Take-Two Interactive Software - TTWO

Previous Close

$118.05

  Intrinsic Value

$22.54

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-81%

Previous close

$118.05

 
Intrinsic value

$22.54

 
Up/down potential

-81%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of TTWO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  25.88
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.09
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
Revenue, $m
  1,780
  1,881
  1,987
  2,098
  2,214
  2,334
  2,461
  2,593
  2,731
  2,876
  3,028
  3,187
  3,353
  3,527
  3,710
  3,901
  4,102
  4,312
  4,533
  4,764
  5,007
  5,262
  5,529
  5,809
  6,103
  6,412
  6,736
  7,075
  7,432
  7,806
  8,199
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,351
  1,425
  1,502
  1,583
  1,667
  1,756
  1,848
  1,945
  2,046
  2,152
  2,227
  2,343
  2,465
  2,593
  2,726
  2,867
  3,014
  3,168
  3,330
  3,499
  3,677
  3,864
  4,060
  4,265
  4,481
  4,707
  4,945
  5,194
  5,455
  5,730
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  429
  440
  451
  462
  474
  486
  498
  511
  523
  536
  550
  564
  578
  592
  607
  622
  638
  653
  670
  687
  704
  721
  739
  758
  777
  796
  816
  837
  857
  879
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,688
  1,780
  1,865
  1,953
  2,045
  2,141
  2,242
  2,346
  2,456
  2,569
  2,688
  2,777
  2,907
  3,043
  3,185
  3,333
  3,489
  3,652
  3,821
  4,000
  4,186
  4,381
  4,585
  4,799
  5,023
  5,258
  5,503
  5,761
  6,031
  6,312
  6,609
Operating income, $m
  91
  101
  122
  145
  168
  193
  219
  247
  276
  307
  340
  410
  446
  485
  525
  568
  613
  661
  712
  765
  821
  881
  944
  1,010
  1,080
  1,154
  1,232
  1,315
  1,402
  1,494
  1,590
EBITDA, $m
  351
  227
  254
  281
  310
  341
  373
  407
  443
  481
  521
  563
  607
  654
  703
  755
  810
  868
  929
  994
  1,062
  1,133
  1,209
  1,289
  1,373
  1,462
  1,556
  1,654
  1,759
  1,868
  1,984
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  9
  -8
  -4
  -1
  3
  6
  10
  14
  19
  23
  28
  33
  38
  43
  49
  55
  61
  68
  75
  82
  89
  97
  106
  114
  124
  133
  143
  154
  165
  176
Earnings before tax, $m
  77
  92
  130
  149
  169
  191
  213
  237
  262
  288
  316
  382
  413
  447
  482
  519
  558
  600
  644
  690
  740
  791
  846
  904
  966
  1,031
  1,099
  1,172
  1,248
  1,329
  1,414
Tax expense, $m
  10
  25
  35
  40
  46
  51
  58
  64
  71
  78
  85
  103
  112
  121
  130
  140
  151
  162
  174
  186
  200
  214
  229
  244
  261
  278
  297
  316
  337
  359
  382
Net income, $m
  67
  67
  95
  109
  124
  139
  155
  173
  191
  211
  231
  279
  302
  326
  352
  379
  408
  438
  470
  504
  540
  578
  618
  660
  705
  752
  802
  855
  911
  970
  1,032

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,392
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,149
  1,857
  1,962
  2,071
  2,185
  2,305
  2,429
  2,560
  2,696
  2,839
  2,989
  3,146
  3,310
  3,482
  3,662
  3,851
  4,049
  4,257
  4,475
  4,703
  4,943
  5,194
  5,458
  5,735
  6,025
  6,329
  6,649
  6,985
  7,337
  7,706
  8,094
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,757
  1,857
  1,962
  2,071
  2,185
  2,305
  2,429
  2,560
  2,696
  2,839
  2,989
  3,146
  3,310
  3,482
  3,662
  3,851
  4,049
  4,257
  4,475
  4,703
  4,943
  5,194
  5,458
  5,735
  6,025
  6,329
  6,649
  6,985
  7,337
  7,706
  8,094
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
  1.013
Average production assets, $m
  428
  452
  477
  504
  531
  560
  591
  622
  656
  690
  727
  765
  805
  847
  890
  936
  984
  1,035
  1,088
  1,143
  1,202
  1,263
  1,327
  1,394
  1,465
  1,539
  1,617
  1,698
  1,784
  1,874
  1,968
Working capital, $m
  509
  -933
  -986
  -1,041
  -1,098
  -1,158
  -1,221
  -1,286
  -1,355
  -1,427
  -1,502
  -1,581
  -1,663
  -1,749
  -1,840
  -1,935
  -2,035
  -2,139
  -2,248
  -2,363
  -2,484
  -2,610
  -2,742
  -2,881
  -3,027
  -3,180
  -3,341
  -3,509
  -3,686
  -3,872
  -4,067
Total debt, $m
  252
  -221
  -127
  -29
  74
  181
  293
  411
  534
  662
  797
  938
  1,086
  1,241
  1,403
  1,573
  1,751
  1,938
  2,134
  2,340
  2,556
  2,782
  3,019
  3,268
  3,529
  3,804
  4,091
  4,393
  4,710
  5,043
  5,392
Total liabilities, $m
  2,145
  1,672
  1,766
  1,864
  1,967
  2,074
  2,186
  2,304
  2,427
  2,555
  2,690
  2,831
  2,979
  3,134
  3,296
  3,466
  3,644
  3,831
  4,027
  4,233
  4,449
  4,675
  4,912
  5,161
  5,422
  5,697
  5,984
  6,286
  6,603
  6,936
  7,285
Total equity, $m
  1,004
  186
  196
  207
  219
  230
  243
  256
  270
  284
  299
  315
  331
  348
  366
  385
  405
  426
  447
  470
  494
  519
  546
  573
  602
  633
  665
  698
  734
  771
  809
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,149
  1,858
  1,962
  2,071
  2,186
  2,304
  2,429
  2,560
  2,697
  2,839
  2,989
  3,146
  3,310
  3,482
  3,662
  3,851
  4,049
  4,257
  4,474
  4,703
  4,943
  5,194
  5,458
  5,734
  6,024
  6,330
  6,649
  6,984
  7,337
  7,707
  8,094
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.251
  -1.190
  -0.650
  -0.140
  0.340
  0.790
  1.210
  1.600
  1.980
  2.330
  2.670
  2.980
  3.280
  3.560
  3.830
  4.080
  4.330
  4.550
  4.770
  4.980
  5.170
  5.360
  5.530
  5.700
  5.860
  6.010
  6.150
  6.290
  6.420
  6.540
  6.660
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.221
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  67
  67
  95
  109
  124
  139
  155
  173
  191
  211
  231
  279
  302
  326
  352
  379
  408
  438
  470
  504
  540
  578
  618
  660
  705
  752
  802
  855
  911
  970
  1,032
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  260
  126
  131
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  181
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  197
  207
  218
  229
  240
  253
  265
  279
  293
  308
  323
  340
  357
  375
  394
Funds from operations, $m
  233
  194
  226
  246
  266
  287
  309
  333
  358
  384
  412
  432
  463
  495
  530
  566
  604
  645
  688
  733
  780
  830
  883
  939
  998
  1,060
  1,126
  1,195
  1,268
  1,345
  1,426
Change in working capital, $m
  -98
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
Cash from operations, $m
  331
  244
  279
  300
  323
  347
  372
  399
  427
  456
  487
  511
  545
  582
  620
  661
  704
  749
  797
  847
  901
  957
  1,016
  1,078
  1,144
  1,213
  1,286
  1,363
  1,445
  1,530
  1,621
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -240
  -253
  -265
  -279
  -293
  -308
  -323
  -340
  -357
  -375
New CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -129
  -110
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -157
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -248
  -260
  -274
  -287
  -301
  -317
  -332
  -350
  -367
  -386
  -405
  -426
  -447
  -469
Free cash flow, $m
  202
  135
  163
  178
  195
  212
  230
  249
  269
  290
  313
  327
  352
  379
  407
  437
  469
  502
  537
  574
  614
  655
  699
  745
  794
  846
  901
  959
  1,019
  1,084
  1,152
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -473
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
  206
  216
  226
  237
  249
  261
  274
  288
  302
  317
  333
  349
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  506
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -50
  33
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
  206
  216
  226
  237
  249
  261
  274
  288
  302
  317
  333
  349
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  145
  168
  257
  277
  297
  319
  342
  366
  392
  419
  448
  468
  500
  534
  570
  607
  647
  689
  733
  780
  829
  881
  936
  994
  1,056
  1,120
  1,189
  1,260
  1,336
  1,416
  1,501
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -423
  -574
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,392
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  986
  247
  266
  286
  307
  330
  353
  378
  405
  433
  453
  484
  517
  551
  588
  627
  668
  711
  757
  805
  856
  910
  967
  1,027
  1,090
  1,157
  1,227
  1,301
  1,379
  1,462
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  945
  226
  231
  235
  238
  239
  239
  236
  233
  227
  215
  206
  196
  185
  173
  159
  145
  131
  117
  102
  89
  76
  63
  52
  42
  34
  26
  20
  15
  11
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. is a developer, publisher and marketer of entertainment for consumers around the world. The Company develops and publishes products through its labels, Rockstar Games and 2K. It operates through publishing segment. It has a portfolio of software content for the hardware platforms in a range of genres, including action, adventure, family/casual, racing, role-playing, shooter, sports and strategy, which it distributes across the world. The Company's products are designed for console gaming systems, such as PlayStation 3 and PlayStation 4; Xbox 360 and Xbox One, and personal computers, including smartphones and tablets. Rockstar Games is the developer and publisher of Grand Theft Auto, as well as other franchises, including L.A. Noire, Max Payne, Midnight Club and Red Dead. 2K publishes owned and licensed titles across a range of genres. It has internal development studios in Canada, China, Czech Republic, the United Kingdom and the United States.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 180.8
Price to Sales 6.8
Price to Book 12.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 36.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 39.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 25.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -43.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 25.1%
Total Debt to Equity 25.1%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.7%
Return On Total Capital 5.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.5%
Return On Equity 8.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.3%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 42.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
EBITDA Margin 19.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Operating Margin 5.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.9%
Net Profit Margin 3.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.5%
Effective Tax Rate 13%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

TTWO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TTWO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1780 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Take-Two Interactive Software. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Take-Two Interactive Software. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TTWO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TTWO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Take-Two Interactive Software, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Take-Two Interactive Software.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TTWO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $419 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TTWO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Take-Two Interactive Software.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Take-Two Interactive Software. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TTWO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TTWO are equal to 24%.

Life of production assets of 2.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Take-Two Interactive Software operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TTWO is equal to -49.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1004 million for Take-Two Interactive Software - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 113.864 million for Take-Two Interactive Software is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Take-Two Interactive Software at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $13.4 billion.

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Financial statements of TTWO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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