Intrinsic value of Tuesday Morning - TUES

Previous Close

$3.05

  Intrinsic Value

$1.07

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-65%

Previous close

$3.05

 
Intrinsic value

$1.07

 
Up/down potential

-65%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of TUES stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.15
  3.30
  3.47
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  4.00
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
Revenue, $m
  967
  999
  1,034
  1,071
  1,111
  1,154
  1,201
  1,250
  1,302
  1,358
  1,417
  1,479
  1,545
  1,615
  1,689
  1,767
  1,849
  1,935
  2,027
  2,123
  2,224
  2,331
  2,443
  2,561
  2,685
  2,816
  2,953
  3,097
  3,249
  3,409
  3,577
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  997
  1,032
  1,069
  1,109
  1,152
  1,198
  1,247
  1,300
  1,355
  1,414
  1,476
  1,542
  1,612
  1,685
  1,763
  1,845
  1,931
  2,023
  2,119
  2,220
  2,326
  2,438
  2,556
  2,680
  2,810
  2,947
  3,091
  3,243
  3,402
  3,569
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  999
  997
  1,032
  1,069
  1,109
  1,152
  1,198
  1,247
  1,300
  1,355
  1,414
  1,476
  1,542
  1,612
  1,685
  1,763
  1,845
  1,931
  2,023
  2,119
  2,220
  2,326
  2,438
  2,556
  2,680
  2,810
  2,947
  3,091
  3,243
  3,402
  3,569
Operating income, $m
  -32
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
EBITDA, $m
  -11
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
Earnings before tax, $m
  -32
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -33
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  358
  364
  376
  390
  405
  420
  437
  455
  474
  494
  516
  538
  562
  588
  615
  643
  673
  705
  738
  773
  810
  848
  889
  932
  977
  1,025
  1,075
  1,128
  1,183
  1,241
  1,302
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  352
  364
  376
  390
  405
  420
  437
  455
  474
  494
  516
  538
  562
  588
  615
  643
  673
  705
  738
  773
  810
  848
  889
  932
  977
  1,025
  1,075
  1,128
  1,183
  1,241
  1,302
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.747
  2.745
  2.750
  2.746
  2.743
  2.748
  2.748
  2.747
  2.747
  2.749
  2.746
  2.749
  2.749
  2.747
  2.746
  2.748
  2.747
  2.745
  2.747
  2.746
  2.746
  2.749
  2.748
  2.748
  2.748
  2.747
  2.747
  2.746
  2.746
  2.747
  2.747
Average production assets, $m
  107
  110
  114
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  256
  269
  282
  295
  310
  325
  341
  357
  375
  393
Working capital, $m
  125
  123
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  274
  287
  300
  315
  330
  346
  363
  381
  400
  419
  440
Total debt, $m
  31
  36
  42
  48
  55
  62
  70
  78
  86
  95
  105
  115
  126
  138
  150
  163
  176
  190
  205
  221
  238
  255
  274
  293
  314
  335
  358
  382
  407
  433
  461
Total liabilities, $m
  159
  164
  170
  176
  183
  190
  198
  206
  214
  223
  233
  243
  254
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  333
  349
  366
  383
  402
  421
  442
  463
  486
  510
  535
  561
  589
Total equity, $m
  199
  199
  206
  214
  222
  230
  240
  249
  260
  271
  283
  295
  308
  322
  337
  352
  369
  386
  404
  423
  444
  465
  487
  511
  536
  562
  589
  618
  648
  680
  713
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  358
  363
  376
  390
  405
  420
  438
  455
  474
  494
  516
  538
  562
  588
  615
  643
  673
  704
  737
  772
  810
  848
  889
  932
  978
  1,025
  1,075
  1,128
  1,183
  1,241
  1,302
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.156
  0.180
  0.200
  0.230
  0.250
  0.270
  0.290
  0.310
  0.330
  0.350
  0.370
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.490
  0.510
  0.520
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -33
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
Funds from operations, $m
  5
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Cash from operations, $m
  0
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
New CAPEX, $m
  -42
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -42
  -24
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
Free cash flow, $m
  -42
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  33
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  51
  54
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  33
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  29
  30
  32
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  77
  82
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -8
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  28
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  5
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
Discount rate, %
 
  6.60
  6.93
  7.28
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.29
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.45
  13.07
  13.72
  14.41
  15.13
  15.88
  16.68
  17.51
  18.39
  19.31
  20.27
  21.29
  22.35
  23.47
  24.64
  25.87
  27.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  4
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.6
  91.0
  86.3
  81.5
  76.8
  72.0
  67.4
  62.8
  58.4
  54.2
  50.2
  46.3
  42.6
  39.2
  36.0
  32.9
  30.1
  27.4
  25.0
  22.7
  20.6
  18.7
  17.0
  15.3
  13.9
  12.5
  11.3
  10.2
  9.2
  8.2

Tuesday Morning Corporation is an off-price retailer. The Company specializes in selling discounted, upscale decorative home accessories, housewares, seasonal goods and famous-maker gifts. The Company operated 751 stores in 40 states in the United States, as of June 30, 2016. The Company offers products in a range of categories, such as home decor, furniture, bed and bath, kitchen, toys, crafts, pets and seasonal goods. The Company offers branded merchandise, such as Peacock Alley, Sferra, Lenox, Waterford and Hartmann. In addition to branded goods, it also carries home furnishings items made around the world. The Company's stores operate in both primary and secondary locations of the suburban markets, such as strip malls, near its middle and upper-income customers. The Company utilizes distribution center facilities in Dallas, Texas and Phoenix, Arizona.


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FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Tuesday Morning (TUES)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.2
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -10.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 26.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 15.6%
Total Debt to Equity 15.6%
Interest Coverage -31
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Return On Total Capital -14.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.6%
Return On Equity -15.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -3%
Asset Turnover 2.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35%
EBITDA Margin -1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Operating Margin -3.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -3.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Net Profit Margin -3.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Effective Tax Rate -3.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1%
Payout Ratio 0%

TUES stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TUES stock intrinsic value calculation we used $967 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Tuesday Morning. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Tuesday Morning. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TUES stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.6%, whose default value for TUES is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Tuesday Morning, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Tuesday Morning.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TUES stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 99.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TUES stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.5% for Tuesday Morning.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Tuesday Morning. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TUES stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TUES are equal to 11%.

Life of production assets of 5.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Tuesday Morning operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TUES is equal to 12.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $199 million for Tuesday Morning - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 46.673 million for Tuesday Morning is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Tuesday Morning at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Tuesday Morning reports 1Q loss   [Nov-02-17 08:18AM  Associated Press]
▶ Tuesday Morning stakeholders calling for CEO ouster   [Sep-25-17 03:50PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Activist Funds Seek Ouster of Tuesday Morning CEO   [12:13AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Tuesday Morning reports 4Q loss   [Aug-24-17 09:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ Singing the Monday Morning Value Blues Over Tuesday Morning   [May-08-17 09:00AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Tuesday Morning reports 3Q loss   [May-04-17 09:16AM  Associated Press]
▶ Tuesday Morning relocating stores to boost sales   [Apr-05-17 12:40PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Tuesday Morning posts 2Q profit   [08:42AM  Associated Press]
▶ Tuesday Morning turnaround executive leaves the company   [Jan-17-17 05:10PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Tuesday Morning turnaround executive leaves the company   [05:10PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Should You Avoid Tuesday Morning Corporation (TUES)?   [Dec-15-16 09:19AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Tuesday Morning going back to its roots to improve profits   [Oct-14-16 08:35AM  at bizjournals.com]
Financial statements of TUES
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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