Intrinsic value of Tupperware Brands - TUP

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$70.30

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TUP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.11
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,213
  2,257
  2,309
  2,369
  2,435
  2,509
  2,590
  2,678
  2,774
  2,877
  2,987
  3,105
  3,231
  3,365
  3,508
  3,659
  3,819
  3,989
  4,169
  4,358
  4,559
  4,770
  4,993
  5,228
  5,475
  5,736
  6,010
  6,299
  6,603
  6,923
  7,259
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,946
  1,991
  2,042
  2,099
  2,163
  2,233
  2,309
  2,391
  2,480
  2,575
  2,677
  2,785
  2,901
  3,024
  3,154
  3,292
  3,439
  3,593
  3,757
  3,930
  4,112
  4,304
  4,506
  4,720
  4,944
  5,181
  5,430
  5,692
  5,968
  6,257
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,866
  1,946
  1,991
  2,042
  2,099
  2,163
  2,233
  2,309
  2,391
  2,480
  2,575
  2,677
  2,785
  2,901
  3,024
  3,154
  3,292
  3,439
  3,593
  3,757
  3,930
  4,112
  4,304
  4,506
  4,720
  4,944
  5,181
  5,430
  5,692
  5,968
  6,257
Operating income, $m
  347
  312
  319
  327
  336
  346
  357
  370
  383
  397
  412
  428
  446
  464
  484
  505
  527
  551
  575
  601
  629
  658
  689
  721
  756
  792
  829
  869
  911
  955
  1,002
EBITDA, $m
  405
  329
  336
  345
  355
  365
  377
  390
  404
  419
  435
  452
  470
  490
  511
  533
  556
  581
  607
  635
  664
  695
  727
  761
  797
  835
  875
  917
  961
  1,008
  1,057
Interest expense (income), $m
  47
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  44
  47
  49
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
  112
Earnings before tax, $m
  301
  290
  296
  303
  311
  320
  330
  341
  352
  365
  378
  392
  407
  423
  440
  458
  478
  498
  519
  542
  566
  591
  618
  646
  676
  707
  740
  775
  811
  849
  890
Tax expense, $m
  77
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  89
  92
  95
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  240
Net income, $m
  224
  212
  216
  221
  227
  234
  241
  249
  257
  266
  276
  286
  297
  309
  321
  335
  349
  364
  379
  396
  413
  432
  451
  472
  493
  516
  540
  565
  592
  620
  649

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  134
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,588
  1,468
  1,501
  1,540
  1,583
  1,631
  1,684
  1,741
  1,803
  1,870
  1,942
  2,019
  2,101
  2,188
  2,281
  2,379
  2,483
  2,594
  2,710
  2,834
  2,964
  3,101
  3,246
  3,399
  3,560
  3,729
  3,908
  4,096
  4,293
  4,501
  4,720
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,454
  1,468
  1,501
  1,540
  1,583
  1,631
  1,684
  1,741
  1,803
  1,870
  1,942
  2,019
  2,101
  2,188
  2,281
  2,379
  2,483
  2,594
  2,710
  2,834
  2,964
  3,101
  3,246
  3,399
  3,560
  3,729
  3,908
  4,096
  4,293
  4,501
  4,720
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.522
  1.537
  1.538
  1.538
  1.538
  1.538
  1.538
  1.538
  1.539
  1.539
  1.538
  1.538
  1.538
  1.538
  1.538
  1.538
  1.538
  1.538
  1.538
  1.538
  1.538
  1.538
  1.538
  1.538
  1.538
  1.538
  1.538
  1.538
  1.538
  1.538
  1.538
Average production assets, $m
  332
  172
  175
  180
  185
  191
  197
  204
  211
  219
  227
  236
  246
  256
  267
  278
  290
  303
  317
  331
  346
  363
  379
  397
  416
  436
  457
  479
  502
  526
  552
Working capital, $m
  -3
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  68
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
Total debt, $m
  712
  643
  672
  704
  741
  781
  826
  874
  927
  983
  1,044
  1,109
  1,178
  1,252
  1,330
  1,413
  1,501
  1,595
  1,693
  1,798
  1,908
  2,024
  2,146
  2,275
  2,411
  2,554
  2,705
  2,864
  3,031
  3,207
  3,391
Total liabilities, $m
  1,375
  1,240
  1,269
  1,301
  1,338
  1,378
  1,423
  1,471
  1,524
  1,580
  1,641
  1,706
  1,775
  1,849
  1,927
  2,010
  2,098
  2,192
  2,290
  2,395
  2,505
  2,621
  2,743
  2,872
  3,008
  3,151
  3,302
  3,461
  3,628
  3,804
  3,988
Total equity, $m
  213
  227
  233
  239
  245
  253
  261
  270
  280
  290
  301
  313
  326
  339
  354
  369
  385
  402
  420
  439
  459
  481
  503
  527
  552
  578
  606
  635
  665
  698
  732
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,588
  1,467
  1,502
  1,540
  1,583
  1,631
  1,684
  1,741
  1,804
  1,870
  1,942
  2,019
  2,101
  2,188
  2,281
  2,379
  2,483
  2,594
  2,710
  2,834
  2,964
  3,102
  3,246
  3,399
  3,560
  3,729
  3,908
  4,096
  4,293
  4,502
  4,720
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.343
  2.830
  2.890
  2.950
  3.020
  3.090
  3.160
  3.240
  3.320
  3.390
  3.470
  3.540
  3.620
  3.690
  3.760
  3.830
  3.900
  3.970
  4.030
  4.090
  4.150
  4.210
  4.270
  4.320
  4.370
  4.420
  4.470
  4.510
  4.550
  4.600
  4.640
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.054
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  224
  212
  216
  221
  227
  234
  241
  249
  257
  266
  276
  286
  297
  309
  321
  335
  349
  364
  379
  396
  413
  432
  451
  472
  493
  516
  540
  565
  592
  620
  649
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  58
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
Funds from operations, $m
  213
  229
  234
  239
  246
  253
  261
  269
  278
  288
  298
  310
  322
  334
  348
  362
  378
  394
  411
  429
  448
  468
  489
  512
  535
  560
  586
  613
  642
  673
  705
Change in working capital, $m
  -26
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  239
  60
  233
  239
  245
  252
  259
  268
  277
  286
  297
  308
  320
  332
  346
  360
  375
  391
  408
  426
  445
  465
  486
  508
  531
  556
  582
  609
  638
  668
  699
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
New CAPEX, $m
  -62
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -26
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -25
  -27
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -79
Free cash flow, $m
  213
  40
  212
  216
  222
  228
  234
  241
  249
  258
  267
  276
  287
  298
  309
  322
  335
  349
  364
  380
  397
  414
  433
  452
  473
  494
  517
  541
  567
  593
  621
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -54
  24
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  48
  52
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -54
  24
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  48
  52
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  152
  64
  240
  249
  258
  268
  279
  290
  302
  314
  327
  341
  356
  371
  388
  405
  423
  443
  463
  484
  507
  530
  555
  581
  609
  638
  668
  700
  734
  769
  806
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -52
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  59
  235
  243
  252
  261
  271
  281
  292
  304
  316
  329
  343
  358
  373
  390
  407
  426
  445
  465
  486
  509
  533
  558
  584
  611
  640
  671
  703
  737
  772
Discount rate, %
 
  11.60
  12.18
  12.79
  13.43
  14.10
  14.80
  15.55
  16.32
  17.14
  18.00
  18.90
  19.84
  20.83
  21.87
  22.97
  24.12
  25.32
  26.59
  27.92
  29.31
  30.78
  32.32
  33.93
  35.63
  37.41
  39.28
  41.25
  43.31
  45.47
  47.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  53
  187
  169
  152
  135
  118
  102
  87
  73
  60
  49
  39
  31
  23
  18
  13
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Tupperware Brands Corporation operates as a direct-to-consumer marketer of various products across a range of brands and categories worldwide. The company engages in the manufacture and sale of design-centric preparation, storage, and serving solutions for the kitchen and home, as well as a line of cookware, knives, microwave products, microfiber textiles, water-filtration related items, and an array of products for on-the-go consumers under the Tupperware brand name. It also manufactures and distributes skin and hair care products, cosmetics, bath and body care, toiletries, fragrances, jewelry, and nutritional products under the Avroy Shlain, NaturCare, Nutrimetics, Fuller, BeautiControl, Armand Dupree, Fuller Cosmetics, and Nuvo brands. The company sells its products directly to distributors, directors, managers, and dealers. The company was formerly known as Tupperware Corporation and changed its name to Tupperware Brands Corporation in December 2005. Tupperware Brands Corporation was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Tupperware Brands (TUP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.9
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 16.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 1.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 284.5%
Total Debt to Equity 334.3%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 16.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Return On Total Capital 24.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.1%
Return On Equity 119.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 108.2%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 67.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.1%
EBITDA Margin 18.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
Operating Margin 15.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Net Profit Margin 10.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Effective Tax Rate 25.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.4%
Payout Ratio 62.1%

TUP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TUP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2213 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Tupperware Brands. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Tupperware Brands. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TUP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.6%, whose default value for TUP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Tupperware Brands, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Tupperware Brands.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TUP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TUP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Tupperware Brands.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Tupperware Brands. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TUP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TUP are equal to 7.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Tupperware Brands operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TUP is equal to 1.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $223 million for Tupperware Brands - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 50.472 million for Tupperware Brands is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Tupperware Brands at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.5 billion.


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Stock chart of TUP Financial statements of TUP Annual reports of TUP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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