Intrinsic value of Titan International - TWI

Previous Close

$13.50

  Intrinsic Value

$1.23

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-91%

Previous close

$13.50

 
Intrinsic value

$1.23

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of TWI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -9.25
  21.20
  19.58
  18.12
  16.81
  15.63
  14.57
  13.61
  12.75
  11.97
  11.28
  10.65
  10.08
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
Revenue, $m
  1,266
  1,534
  1,835
  2,167
  2,532
  2,927
  3,354
  3,810
  4,296
  4,810
  5,353
  5,923
  6,520
  7,144
  7,796
  8,474
  9,181
  9,915
  10,679
  11,472
  12,297
  13,154
  14,045
  14,971
  15,935
  16,938
  17,981
  19,069
  20,202
  21,383
  22,615
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,560
  1,866
  2,204
  2,575
  2,977
  3,411
  3,875
  4,369
  4,892
  5,444
  6,023
  6,631
  7,266
  7,928
  8,618
  9,337
  10,084
  10,860
  11,667
  12,506
  13,378
  14,284
  15,226
  16,206
  17,226
  18,287
  19,393
  20,545
  21,747
  23,000
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,287
  1,560
  1,866
  2,204
  2,575
  2,977
  3,411
  3,875
  4,369
  4,892
  5,444
  6,023
  6,631
  7,266
  7,928
  8,618
  9,337
  10,084
  10,860
  11,667
  12,506
  13,378
  14,284
  15,226
  16,206
  17,226
  18,287
  19,393
  20,545
  21,747
  23,000
Operating income, $m
  -21
  -26
  -31
  -37
  -43
  -50
  -57
  -65
  -73
  -82
  -91
  -101
  -111
  -121
  -133
  -144
  -156
  -169
  -182
  -195
  -209
  -224
  -239
  -255
  -271
  -288
  -306
  -324
  -343
  -364
  -384
EBITDA, $m
  39
  46
  56
  66
  77
  89
  102
  115
  130
  146
  162
  179
  197
  216
  236
  257
  278
  300
  323
  347
  372
  398
  425
  453
  482
  513
  544
  577
  612
  647
  685
Interest expense (income), $m
  34
  27
  40
  54
  69
  86
  104
  124
  145
  167
  191
  216
  242
  270
  299
  329
  360
  393
  426
  462
  498
  536
  576
  617
  660
  704
  750
  799
  849
  901
  956
Earnings before tax, $m
  -33
  -53
  -71
  -90
  -112
  -136
  -161
  -188
  -218
  -249
  -282
  -317
  -353
  -391
  -431
  -473
  -516
  -561
  -608
  -657
  -707
  -760
  -815
  -871
  -931
  -992
  -1,056
  -1,123
  -1,192
  -1,265
  -1,340
Tax expense, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -34
  -53
  -71
  -90
  -112
  -136
  -161
  -188
  -218
  -249
  -282
  -317
  -353
  -391
  -431
  -473
  -516
  -561
  -608
  -657
  -707
  -760
  -815
  -871
  -931
  -992
  -1,056
  -1,123
  -1,192
  -1,265
  -1,340

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  198
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,266
  1,295
  1,548
  1,829
  2,136
  2,470
  2,830
  3,215
  3,625
  4,059
  4,517
  4,998
  5,502
  6,029
  6,579
  7,151
  7,747
  8,367
  9,012
  9,681
  10,377
  11,101
  11,852
  12,634
  13,447
  14,293
  15,174
  16,092
  17,048
  18,045
  19,085
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,068
  1,295
  1,548
  1,829
  2,136
  2,470
  2,830
  3,215
  3,625
  4,059
  4,517
  4,998
  5,502
  6,029
  6,579
  7,151
  7,747
  8,367
  9,012
  9,681
  10,377
  11,101
  11,852
  12,634
  13,447
  14,293
  15,174
  16,092
  17,048
  18,045
  19,085
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
Average production assets, $m
  461
  559
  668
  789
  922
  1,066
  1,221
  1,387
  1,564
  1,751
  1,948
  2,156
  2,373
  2,600
  2,838
  3,085
  3,342
  3,609
  3,887
  4,176
  4,476
  4,788
  5,112
  5,450
  5,800
  6,165
  6,545
  6,941
  7,353
  7,783
  8,232
Working capital, $m
  363
  318
  380
  449
  524
  606
  694
  789
  889
  996
  1,108
  1,226
  1,350
  1,479
  1,614
  1,754
  1,900
  2,052
  2,211
  2,375
  2,546
  2,723
  2,907
  3,099
  3,299
  3,506
  3,722
  3,947
  4,182
  4,426
  4,681
Total debt, $m
  506
  594
  800
  1,029
  1,280
  1,553
  1,846
  2,161
  2,495
  2,849
  3,223
  3,615
  4,027
  4,457
  4,905
  5,372
  5,859
  6,365
  6,891
  7,437
  8,005
  8,595
  9,209
  9,846
  10,510
  11,200
  11,919
  12,668
  13,448
  14,262
  15,110
Total liabilities, $m
  969
  1,057
  1,263
  1,492
  1,743
  2,016
  2,309
  2,624
  2,958
  3,312
  3,686
  4,078
  4,490
  4,920
  5,368
  5,835
  6,322
  6,828
  7,354
  7,900
  8,468
  9,058
  9,672
  10,309
  10,973
  11,663
  12,382
  13,131
  13,911
  14,725
  15,573
Total equity, $m
  297
  238
  285
  337
  393
  455
  521
  592
  667
  747
  831
  920
  1,012
  1,109
  1,210
  1,316
  1,426
  1,540
  1,658
  1,781
  1,909
  2,043
  2,181
  2,325
  2,474
  2,630
  2,792
  2,961
  3,137
  3,320
  3,512
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,266
  1,295
  1,548
  1,829
  2,136
  2,471
  2,830
  3,216
  3,625
  4,059
  4,517
  4,998
  5,502
  6,029
  6,578
  7,151
  7,748
  8,368
  9,012
  9,681
  10,377
  11,101
  11,853
  12,634
  13,447
  14,293
  15,174
  16,092
  17,048
  18,045
  19,085
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.704
  2.490
  2.810
  3.060
  3.260
  3.420
  3.550
  3.650
  3.740
  3.810
  3.880
  3.930
  3.980
  4.020
  4.050
  4.080
  4.110
  4.130
  4.160
  4.170
  4.190
  4.210
  4.220
  4.240
  4.250
  4.260
  4.270
  4.280
  4.290
  4.300
  4.300
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.093
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -34
  -53
  -71
  -90
  -112
  -136
  -161
  -188
  -218
  -249
  -282
  -317
  -353
  -391
  -431
  -473
  -516
  -561
  -608
  -657
  -707
  -760
  -815
  -871
  -931
  -992
  -1,056
  -1,123
  -1,192
  -1,265
  -1,340
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  60
  73
  87
  102
  120
  138
  159
  180
  203
  227
  253
  280
  308
  338
  369
  401
  434
  469
  505
  542
  581
  622
  664
  708
  753
  801
  850
  901
  955
  1,011
  1,069
Funds from operations, $m
  52
  19
  16
  12
  8
  3
  -3
  -8
  -15
  -22
  -29
  -37
  -45
  -54
  -63
  -72
  -82
  -92
  -103
  -114
  -126
  -138
  -151
  -164
  -177
  -191
  -206
  -221
  -237
  -254
  -271
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  56
  62
  69
  75
  82
  88
  94
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  129
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  177
  184
  192
  199
  208
  216
  225
  235
  245
  255
Cash from operations, $m
  44
  -37
  -46
  -57
  -68
  -79
  -91
  -103
  -115
  -128
  -141
  -155
  -168
  -183
  -197
  -213
  -228
  -244
  -261
  -279
  -297
  -316
  -335
  -355
  -377
  -399
  -422
  -446
  -472
  -498
  -526
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -60
  -73
  -87
  -102
  -120
  -138
  -159
  -180
  -203
  -227
  -253
  -280
  -308
  -338
  -369
  -401
  -434
  -469
  -505
  -542
  -581
  -622
  -664
  -708
  -753
  -801
  -850
  -901
  -955
  -1,011
New CAPEX, $m
  -42
  -98
  -109
  -121
  -133
  -144
  -155
  -166
  -177
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -227
  -237
  -247
  -257
  -267
  -278
  -289
  -300
  -312
  -324
  -337
  -351
  -365
  -380
  -396
  -412
  -430
  -449
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -90
  -158
  -182
  -208
  -235
  -264
  -293
  -325
  -357
  -390
  -424
  -460
  -497
  -535
  -575
  -616
  -658
  -701
  -747
  -794
  -842
  -893
  -946
  -1,001
  -1,059
  -1,118
  -1,181
  -1,246
  -1,313
  -1,385
  -1,460
Free cash flow, $m
  -46
  -194
  -228
  -265
  -303
  -343
  -384
  -428
  -472
  -518
  -566
  -615
  -666
  -718
  -772
  -828
  -886
  -946
  -1,008
  -1,072
  -1,139
  -1,209
  -1,281
  -1,357
  -1,435
  -1,517
  -1,603
  -1,692
  -1,786
  -1,883
  -1,985
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -5
  185
  207
  229
  251
  272
  294
  314
  334
  354
  374
  392
  411
  430
  449
  467
  486
  506
  526
  546
  568
  590
  613
  638
  663
  690
  719
  749
  780
  813
  849
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  96
  118
  142
  169
  197
  227
  259
  293
  329
  366
  405
  446
  488
  532
  578
  626
  675
  727
  780
  835
  893
  953
  1,015
  1,080
  1,148
  1,218
  1,292
  1,368
  1,448
  1,531
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -5
  281
  325
  371
  420
  469
  521
  573
  627
  683
  740
  797
  857
  918
  981
  1,045
  1,112
  1,181
  1,253
  1,326
  1,403
  1,483
  1,566
  1,653
  1,743
  1,838
  1,937
  2,041
  2,148
  2,261
  2,380
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -51
  86
  96
  106
  117
  127
  137
  146
  156
  165
  174
  182
  191
  200
  209
  217
  226
  235
  244
  254
  264
  274
  285
  297
  308
  321
  334
  348
  363
  378
  395
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  48
  -96
  -118
  -142
  -169
  -197
  -227
  -259
  -293
  -329
  -366
  -405
  -446
  -488
  -532
  -578
  -626
  -675
  -727
  -780
  -835
  -893
  -953
  -1,015
  -1,080
  -1,148
  -1,218
  -1,292
  -1,368
  -1,448
  -1,531
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  101
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  91
  -21
  -36
  -52
  -70
  -91
  -113
  -138
  -164
  -192
  -223
  -255
  -288
  -324
  -361
  -400
  -440
  -482
  -526
  -571
  -619
  -668
  -719
  -772
  -827
  -884
  -943
  -1,005
  -1,070
  -1,137
Discount rate, %
 
  7.70
  8.09
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.83
  10.32
  10.83
  11.38
  11.95
  12.54
  13.17
  13.83
  14.52
  15.25
  16.01
  16.81
  17.65
  18.53
  19.46
  20.43
  21.45
  22.52
  23.65
  24.83
  26.07
  27.38
  28.75
  30.18
  31.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  85
  -18
  -28
  -37
  -45
  -52
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -62
  -61
  -58
  -54
  -49
  -43
  -37
  -31
  -26
  -21
  -16
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  84.9
  72.0
  60.9
  51.5
  43.6
  36.9
  31.2
  26.5
  22.4
  19.0
  16.2
  13.8
  11.7
  10.0
  8.5
  7.2
  6.2
  5.3
  4.5
  3.8
  3.3
  2.8
  2.4
  2.1
  1.8
  1.5
  1.3
  1.1
  0.9
  0.8

Titan International, Inc. is a wheel, tire, and undercarriage industrial manufacturer and supplier. The Company's segments are agricultural, earthmoving/construction, and consumer. The Company produces a range of products to meet the specifications of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and aftermarket customers in the agricultural, earthmoving/construction, and consumer markets. Its agricultural products include rims, wheels, tires, and undercarriage systems and components manufactured for use on various agricultural equipment. Its earthmoving/construction products include rims, wheels, tires, and undercarriage systems and components for various types of off-the-road (OTR) earthmoving, mining, military, construction, and forestry equipment. The Company's consumer products include, but are not limited to, bias truck tires in Latin America and light truck tires in Russia, as well as products for all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), turf, and golf cart applications.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Titan International (TWI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -21.5
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 365.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -12.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 137.7%
Total Debt to Equity 170.4%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Return On Total Capital -4.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.4%
Return On Equity -10.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.9%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 11.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
EBITDA Margin 4.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Operating Margin -1.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.8%
Net Profit Margin -2.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.1%
Effective Tax Rate -9.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.6%
Payout Ratio -2.9%

TWI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TWI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1266 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Titan International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Titan International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TWI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.7%, whose default value for TWI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Titan International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Titan International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TWI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 101.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TWI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.7% for Titan International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Titan International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TWI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TWI are equal to 36.4%.

Life of production assets of 7.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Titan International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TWI is equal to 20.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $297 million for Titan International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 60.491 million for Titan International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Titan International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Titan International, Inc. Prices Senior Secured Notes   [Nov-09-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ The 3 Stocks on the MFM Team's Radar This Week   [Nov-06-17 07:27PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Titan International reports 3Q loss   [06:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ Titan International Inc's Recovery Hits a Snag   [Aug-03-17 02:34PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Titan International reports 2Q loss   [06:20AM  Associated Press]
▶ Titan International reports 1Q loss   [06:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Industrial Stocks Struggling in March   [Mar-31-17 11:04AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Titan International reports 4Q loss   [06:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ Titan International, Inc. Announces CFO Appointment   [Dec-06-16 09:11PM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of TWI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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