Intrinsic value of Titan International - TWI

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$10.46

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$10.46

 
Intrinsic value

$1.22

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TWI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -9.25
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,266
  1,291
  1,321
  1,355
  1,393
  1,435
  1,482
  1,532
  1,587
  1,646
  1,709
  1,776
  1,848
  1,925
  2,007
  2,093
  2,185
  2,282
  2,385
  2,493
  2,608
  2,729
  2,856
  2,991
  3,132
  3,281
  3,438
  3,604
  3,777
  3,960
  4,153
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,313
  1,343
  1,378
  1,417
  1,460
  1,507
  1,558
  1,614
  1,674
  1,738
  1,807
  1,880
  1,958
  2,041
  2,129
  2,222
  2,321
  2,425
  2,536
  2,652
  2,775
  2,905
  3,041
  3,185
  3,337
  3,497
  3,665
  3,842
  4,028
  4,223
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,287
  1,313
  1,343
  1,378
  1,417
  1,460
  1,507
  1,558
  1,614
  1,674
  1,738
  1,807
  1,880
  1,958
  2,041
  2,129
  2,222
  2,321
  2,425
  2,536
  2,652
  2,775
  2,905
  3,041
  3,185
  3,337
  3,497
  3,665
  3,842
  4,028
  4,223
Operating income, $m
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
EBITDA, $m
  39
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  86
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
Interest expense (income), $m
  34
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  114
  120
  128
  135
  143
  152
Earnings before tax, $m
  -33
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -136
  -143
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -179
  -189
  -200
  -211
  -222
Tax expense, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -34
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -136
  -143
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -179
  -189
  -200
  -211
  -222

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  198
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,263
  1,086
  1,111
  1,140
  1,172
  1,207
  1,246
  1,289
  1,335
  1,384
  1,437
  1,494
  1,555
  1,619
  1,688
  1,761
  1,838
  1,919
  2,006
  2,097
  2,193
  2,295
  2,402
  2,515
  2,634
  2,760
  2,892
  3,031
  3,177
  3,331
  3,493
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,065
  1,086
  1,111
  1,140
  1,172
  1,207
  1,246
  1,289
  1,335
  1,384
  1,437
  1,494
  1,555
  1,619
  1,688
  1,761
  1,838
  1,919
  2,006
  2,097
  2,193
  2,295
  2,402
  2,515
  2,634
  2,760
  2,892
  3,031
  3,177
  3,331
  3,493
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.188
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
  1.189
Average production assets, $m
  461
  470
  481
  493
  507
  522
  539
  558
  578
  599
  622
  647
  673
  701
  730
  762
  795
  831
  868
  908
  949
  993
  1,040
  1,089
  1,140
  1,194
  1,252
  1,312
  1,375
  1,442
  1,512
Working capital, $m
  360
  265
  271
  278
  286
  294
  304
  314
  325
  337
  350
  364
  379
  395
  411
  429
  448
  468
  489
  511
  535
  559
  586
  613
  642
  673
  705
  739
  774
  812
  851
Total debt, $m
  506
  426
  447
  470
  497
  526
  558
  592
  630
  671
  714
  761
  810
  863
  919
  979
  1,042
  1,109
  1,180
  1,254
  1,333
  1,417
  1,504
  1,597
  1,695
  1,797
  1,905
  2,019
  2,139
  2,265
  2,398
Total liabilities, $m
  969
  889
  910
  933
  960
  989
  1,021
  1,055
  1,093
  1,134
  1,177
  1,224
  1,273
  1,326
  1,382
  1,442
  1,505
  1,572
  1,643
  1,717
  1,796
  1,880
  1,967
  2,060
  2,158
  2,260
  2,368
  2,482
  2,602
  2,728
  2,861
Total equity, $m
  294
  197
  201
  206
  212
  218
  226
  233
  242
  251
  260
  270
  281
  293
  305
  319
  333
  347
  363
  380
  397
  415
  435
  455
  477
  500
  523
  549
  575
  603
  632
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,263
  1,086
  1,111
  1,139
  1,172
  1,207
  1,247
  1,288
  1,335
  1,385
  1,437
  1,494
  1,554
  1,619
  1,687
  1,761
  1,838
  1,919
  2,006
  2,097
  2,193
  2,295
  2,402
  2,515
  2,635
  2,760
  2,891
  3,031
  3,177
  3,331
  3,493
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.721
  2.170
  2.220
  2.280
  2.340
  2.410
  2.470
  2.540
  2.610
  2.680
  2.740
  2.810
  2.880
  2.950
  3.010
  3.070
  3.130
  3.190
  3.250
  3.310
  3.360
  3.410
  3.460
  3.510
  3.550
  3.600
  3.640
  3.680
  3.720
  3.760
  3.790
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.090
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -34
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -136
  -143
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -179
  -189
  -200
  -211
  -222
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  60
  61
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  163
  170
  179
  187
  196
Funds from operations, $m
  52
  12
  11
  11
  11
  10
  10
  9
  8
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  -1
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  39
Cash from operations, $m
  44
  -1
  5
  4
  3
  2
  0
  -1
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -57
  -61
  -65
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -60
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -170
  -179
  -187
New CAPEX, $m
  -42
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -90
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -223
  -233
  -246
  -257
Free cash flow, $m
  -46
  -70
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -142
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -178
  -188
  -199
  -210
  -222
  -234
  -247
  -261
  -275
  -290
  -306
  -323
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -5
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  51
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
  177
  186
  197
  208
  219
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -5
  17
  71
  75
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  156
  164
  174
  184
  195
  206
  217
  230
  243
  256
  270
  285
  300
  317
  334
  352
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -51
  -53
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -137
  -144
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -180
  -190
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  51
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  101
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  45
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  7.70
  8.09
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.83
  10.32
  10.83
  11.38
  11.95
  12.54
  13.17
  13.83
  14.52
  15.25
  16.01
  16.81
  17.65
  18.53
  19.46
  20.43
  21.45
  22.52
  23.65
  24.83
  26.07
  27.38
  28.75
  30.18
  31.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  41
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  89.3
  79.6
  70.8
  62.9
  55.8
  49.3
  43.6
  38.4
  33.8
  29.7
  26.0
  22.8
  19.9
  17.4
  15.1
  13.1
  11.4
  9.9
  8.5
  7.4
  6.4
  5.5
  4.7
  4.1
  3.5
  3.0
  2.6
  2.2
  1.9

Titan International, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells wheels, tires, wheel and tire assemblies, and undercarriage systems and components for off-highway vehicles in the United States and internationally. The company operates through Agricultural, Earthmoving/Construction, and Consumer segments. It offers rims, wheels, tires, and undercarriage systems and components for various agricultural and forestry equipment, including tractors, combines, skidders, plows, planters, and irrigation equipment. The company also provides its products for various types of off-the-road earthmoving, mining, military, and construction and forestry equipment comprising skid steers, aerial lifts, cranes, graders and levelers, scrapers, self-propelled shovel loaders, articulated dump trucks, load transporters, haul trucks, backhoe loaders, crawler tractors, lattice cranes, shovels, and hydraulic excavators. In addition, it manufactures bias and light truck tires; and provides products for all-terrain vehicles, turf, and golf cart applications, as well as offers brakes. The company sells its products directly to original equipment manufacturers, as well as to the aftermarket through independent distributors, equipment dealers, and distribution centers. Titan International, Inc. was founded in 1890 and is based in Quincy, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Titan International (TWI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -16.7
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 283.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -12.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 139.1%
Total Debt to Equity 172.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Return On Total Capital -4.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.4%
Return On Equity -10.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.9%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 11.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
EBITDA Margin 4.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Operating Margin -1.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.8%
Net Profit Margin -2.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.1%
Effective Tax Rate -9.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.6%
Payout Ratio -2.9%

TWI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TWI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1266 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Titan International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Titan International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TWI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.7%, whose default value for TWI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Titan International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Titan International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TWI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 101.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TWI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.7% for Titan International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Titan International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TWI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TWI are equal to 36.4%.

Life of production assets of 7.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Titan International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TWI is equal to 20.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $294 million for Titan International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 60.108 million for Titan International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Titan International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Titan International reports 1Q loss   [06:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Industrial Stocks Struggling in March   [Mar-31-17 11:04AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Titan International reports 4Q loss   [06:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ Titan International, Inc. Announces CFO Appointment   [Dec-06-16 09:11PM  PR Newswire]
▶ The Best Dividend Stocks of 2016   [Nov-17-16 12:30PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ 2 Top Rubber Stocks to Buy Today   [Nov-09-16 08:22AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Titan International Prepping For Demand Recovery in 2017   [Nov-04-16 08:36PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Stocks That Have Doubled in 2016   [Oct-25-16 05:59AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Why Titan International Inc's Shares Surged 39% in August   [Sep-09-16 05:24PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of TWI Financial statements of TWI Annual reports of TWI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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