Intrinsic value of Two Harbors Investment - TWO

Previous Close

$10.12

  Intrinsic Value

$11.97

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+18%

  Value-price divergence*

+161%

Previous close

$10.12

 
Intrinsic value

$11.97

 
Up/down potential

+18%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+161%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as TWO.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TWO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.15
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.17
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
Revenue, $m
  633
  672
  712
  754
  798
  843
  891
  941
  992
  1,047
  1,104
  1,163
  1,225
  1,290
  1,358
  1,430
  1,504
  1,583
  1,665
  1,751
  1,841
  1,935
  2,035
  2,138
  2,247
  2,362
  2,482
  2,608
  2,740
  2,878
  3,024
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  140
  149
  158
  167
  176
  186
  197
  207
  219
  231
  243
  256
  270
  284
  299
  314
  331
  348
  366
  385
  405
  425
  447
  470
  494
  519
  545
  573
  602
  632
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  268
  140
  149
  158
  167
  176
  186
  197
  207
  219
  231
  243
  256
  270
  284
  299
  314
  331
  348
  366
  385
  405
  425
  447
  470
  494
  519
  545
  573
  602
  632
Operating income, $m
  366
  531
  563
  596
  631
  667
  705
  744
  785
  828
  873
  920
  969
  1,021
  1,074
  1,131
  1,190
  1,252
  1,317
  1,385
  1,456
  1,531
  1,609
  1,692
  1,778
  1,868
  1,963
  2,063
  2,167
  2,277
  2,392
EBITDA, $m
  367
  531
  563
  596
  631
  667
  705
  744
  785
  828
  873
  920
  970
  1,021
  1,075
  1,131
  1,190
  1,252
  1,317
  1,385
  1,457
  1,531
  1,610
  1,692
  1,778
  1,869
  1,964
  2,063
  2,168
  2,278
  2,393
Interest expense (income), $m
  116
  561
  597
  634
  672
  711
  753
  796
  841
  888
  937
  988
  1,042
  1,098
  1,157
  1,219
  1,283
  1,351
  1,422
  1,496
  1,574
  1,655
  1,741
  1,830
  1,924
  2,023
  2,126
  2,235
  2,349
  2,468
  2,593
Earnings before tax, $m
  366
  -29
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -182
  -191
  -202
Tax expense, $m
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  353
  -29
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -182
  -191
  -202

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  407
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  20,112
  20,988
  22,245
  23,556
  24,922
  26,348
  27,837
  29,391
  31,016
  32,713
  34,488
  36,345
  38,288
  40,321
  42,450
  44,679
  47,014
  49,461
  52,024
  54,712
  57,528
  60,482
  63,579
  66,827
  70,233
  73,806
  77,555
  81,488
  85,614
  89,944
  94,488
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  19,705
  20,988
  22,245
  23,556
  24,922
  26,348
  27,837
  29,391
  31,016
  32,713
  34,488
  36,345
  38,288
  40,321
  42,450
  44,679
  47,014
  49,461
  52,024
  54,712
  57,528
  60,482
  63,579
  66,827
  70,233
  73,806
  77,555
  81,488
  85,614
  89,944
  94,488
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
  0.032
Average production assets, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
Working capital, $m
  0
  336
  356
  377
  399
  422
  445
  470
  496
  523
  552
  582
  613
  645
  679
  715
  752
  791
  832
  875
  920
  968
  1,017
  1,069
  1,124
  1,181
  1,241
  1,304
  1,370
  1,439
  1,512
Total debt, $m
  16,424
  17,070
  18,110
  19,193
  20,324
  21,503
  22,734
  24,020
  25,363
  26,767
  28,235
  29,770
  31,377
  33,058
  34,819
  36,663
  38,594
  40,617
  42,737
  44,959
  47,289
  49,731
  52,293
  54,979
  57,796
  60,751
  63,851
  67,103
  70,516
  74,097
  77,855
Total liabilities, $m
  16,711
  17,357
  18,397
  19,480
  20,611
  21,790
  23,021
  24,307
  25,650
  27,054
  28,522
  30,057
  31,664
  33,345
  35,106
  36,950
  38,881
  40,904
  43,024
  45,246
  47,576
  50,018
  52,580
  55,266
  58,083
  61,038
  64,138
  67,390
  70,803
  74,384
  78,142
Total equity, $m
  3,401
  3,631
  3,848
  4,075
  4,312
  4,558
  4,816
  5,085
  5,366
  5,659
  5,966
  6,288
  6,624
  6,976
  7,344
  7,729
  8,133
  8,557
  9,000
  9,465
  9,952
  10,463
  10,999
  11,561
  12,150
  12,768
  13,417
  14,097
  14,811
  15,560
  16,346
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  20,112
  20,988
  22,245
  23,555
  24,923
  26,348
  27,837
  29,392
  31,016
  32,713
  34,488
  36,345
  38,288
  40,321
  42,450
  44,679
  47,014
  49,461
  52,024
  54,711
  57,528
  60,481
  63,579
  66,827
  70,233
  73,806
  77,555
  81,487
  85,614
  89,944
  94,488
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.829
  4.700
  4.710
  4.710
  4.710
  4.720
  4.720
  4.720
  4.730
  4.730
  4.730
  4.730
  4.740
  4.740
  4.740
  4.740
  4.750
  4.750
  4.750
  4.750
  4.750
  4.750
  4.750
  4.760
  4.760
  4.760
  4.760
  4.760
  4.760
  4.760
  4.760
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173
  0.173

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  353
  -29
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -182
  -191
  -202
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Funds from operations, $m
  243
  -29
  -34
  -37
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -181
  -191
  -201
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
Cash from operations, $m
  240
  -48
  -54
  -58
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -87
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -190
  -200
  -211
  -222
  -234
  -247
  -260
  -274
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
New CAPEX, $m
  -318
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5,816
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Free cash flow, $m
  -5,576
  -49
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -191
  -201
  -212
  -224
  -235
  -248
  -261
  -275
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1,115
  1,053
  1,040
  1,084
  1,130
  1,179
  1,231
  1,286
  1,343
  1,404
  1,468
  1,535
  1,607
  1,682
  1,761
  1,844
  1,931
  2,023
  2,120
  2,222
  2,330
  2,442
  2,561
  2,686
  2,817
  2,955
  3,100
  3,252
  3,413
  3,581
  3,758
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -61
  259
  252
  264
  277
  291
  306
  321
  337
  353
  371
  389
  409
  429
  451
  473
  497
  522
  548
  576
  605
  635
  667
  701
  736
  773
  812
  853
  895
  940
  988
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  5,577
  1,312
  1,292
  1,348
  1,407
  1,470
  1,537
  1,607
  1,680
  1,757
  1,839
  1,924
  2,016
  2,111
  2,212
  2,317
  2,428
  2,545
  2,668
  2,798
  2,935
  3,077
  3,228
  3,387
  3,553
  3,728
  3,912
  4,105
  4,308
  4,521
  4,746
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  1,264
  1,237
  1,289
  1,345
  1,403
  1,465
  1,530
  1,598
  1,670
  1,747
  1,827
  1,911
  2,001
  2,095
  2,193
  2,298
  2,407
  2,523
  2,644
  2,772
  2,906
  3,047
  3,196
  3,352
  3,516
  3,688
  3,870
  4,060
  4,260
  4,471
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  176
  -259
  -252
  -264
  -277
  -291
  -306
  -321
  -337
  -353
  -371
  -389
  -409
  -429
  -451
  -473
  -497
  -522
  -548
  -576
  -605
  -635
  -667
  -701
  -736
  -773
  -812
  -853
  -895
  -940
  -988
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,004
  985
  1,025
  1,067
  1,112
  1,159
  1,209
  1,261
  1,317
  1,376
  1,437
  1,503
  1,571
  1,644
  1,720
  1,800
  1,885
  1,974
  2,068
  2,167
  2,271
  2,380
  2,495
  2,616
  2,743
  2,877
  3,017
  3,165
  3,320
  3,483
Discount rate, %
 
  13.20
  13.86
  14.55
  15.28
  16.04
  16.85
  17.69
  18.57
  19.50
  20.48
  21.50
  22.58
  23.71
  24.89
  26.14
  27.44
  28.81
  30.25
  31.77
  33.36
  35.02
  36.77
  38.61
  40.54
  42.57
  44.70
  46.93
  49.28
  51.75
  54.33
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  887
  760
  682
  604
  528
  455
  387
  323
  265
  214
  169
  131
  99
  73
  53
  37
  25
  17
  11
  7
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.2
  87.3
  81.9
  76.9
  72.2
  67.8
  63.8
  59.9
  56.4
  53.0
  49.9
  47.0
  44.2
  41.6
  39.2
  36.9
  34.8
  32.7
  30.8
  29.1
  27.4
  25.8
  24.3
  22.9
  21.6
  20.3
  19.2
  18.1
  17.0
  16.0

Two Harbors Investment Corp. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on investing in, financing, and managing residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), residential mortgage loans, mortgage servicing rights, commercial real estate and other financial assets. The company’s target assets include agency RMBS collateralized by fixed rate mortgage loans, adjustable rate mortgage loans, hybrid mortgage loans, or derivatives; and non-agency RMBS collateralized by prime mortgage loans, Alt-A mortgage loans, pay-option ARM mortgage loans, and subprime mortgage loans. Its target assets also comprise prime nonconforming and credit sensitive residential mortgage loans; floating and fixed rate commercial real estate loans; CMBS collateralized by commercial real estate loans; and other assets, such as asset backed securities and certain non-hedging transactions. The company qualifies as a REIT for federal income tax purposes. As a REIT, the company would not be subject to federal income tax, if it distributes at least 90% of net taxable income to its stockholders. Two Harbors Investment Corp. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Two Harbors Investment (TWO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10
Price to Sales 5.6
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -45.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 156.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 206.9%
Total Debt to Equity 482.9%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Return On Total Capital 2.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Equity 10.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 51.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.3%
EBITDA Margin 76.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67%
Operating Margin 57.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 57.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51%
Net Profit Margin 55.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.5%
Effective Tax Rate 3.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -26.5%
Payout Ratio 94.1%

TWO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TWO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $633 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Two Harbors Investment. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Two Harbors Investment. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TWO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.2%, whose default value for TWO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Two Harbors Investment, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Two Harbors Investment.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TWO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 20.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TWO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Two Harbors Investment.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Two Harbors Investment. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TWO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TWO are equal to 0.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Two Harbors Investment operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TWO is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3401 million for Two Harbors Investment - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 349.462 million for Two Harbors Investment is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Two Harbors Investment at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.5 billion.

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Stock chart of TWO Financial statements of TWO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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