Intrinsic value of Ubiquiti Networks - UBNT

Previous Close

$65.59

  Intrinsic Value

$136.36

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+108%

Previous close

$65.59

 
Intrinsic value

$136.36

 
Up/down potential

+108%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of UBNT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  29.88
  23.10
  21.29
  19.66
  18.19
  16.88
  15.69
  14.62
  13.66
  12.79
  12.01
  11.31
  10.68
  10.11
  9.60
  9.14
  8.73
  8.35
  8.02
  7.72
  7.45
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
Revenue, $m
  865
  1,065
  1,292
  1,545
  1,827
  2,135
  2,470
  2,831
  3,217
  3,629
  4,065
  4,525
  5,008
  5,514
  6,044
  6,596
  7,172
  7,771
  8,394
  9,042
  9,715
  10,415
  11,142
  11,897
  12,683
  13,500
  14,351
  15,236
  16,158
  17,119
  18,121
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  678
  823
  984
  1,164
  1,360
  1,573
  1,803
  2,050
  2,312
  2,589
  2,882
  3,190
  3,513
  3,850
  4,202
  4,569
  4,950
  5,347
  5,760
  6,189
  6,634
  7,097
  7,579
  8,079
  8,600
  9,141
  9,705
  10,293
  10,905
  11,543
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  576
  678
  823
  984
  1,164
  1,360
  1,573
  1,803
  2,050
  2,312
  2,589
  2,882
  3,190
  3,513
  3,850
  4,202
  4,569
  4,950
  5,347
  5,760
  6,189
  6,634
  7,097
  7,579
  8,079
  8,600
  9,141
  9,705
  10,293
  10,905
  11,543
Operating income, $m
  290
  387
  469
  561
  663
  775
  897
  1,028
  1,168
  1,317
  1,476
  1,642
  1,818
  2,002
  2,194
  2,394
  2,603
  2,821
  3,047
  3,282
  3,527
  3,781
  4,044
  4,319
  4,604
  4,901
  5,209
  5,531
  5,865
  6,214
  6,578
EBITDA, $m
  297
  390
  473
  566
  669
  782
  904
  1,037
  1,178
  1,329
  1,489
  1,657
  1,834
  2,019
  2,213
  2,416
  2,626
  2,846
  3,074
  3,311
  3,558
  3,814
  4,080
  4,357
  4,645
  4,944
  5,255
  5,579
  5,917
  6,269
  6,636
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  8
  10
  13
  17
  21
  25
  29
  34
  39
  45
  51
  57
  63
  70
  77
  85
  92
  100
  109
  118
  127
  136
  146
  156
  166
  177
  189
  201
  213
  226
Earnings before tax, $m
  285
  378
  459
  548
  646
  754
  872
  998
  1,134
  1,278
  1,431
  1,592
  1,761
  1,938
  2,124
  2,317
  2,519
  2,729
  2,947
  3,173
  3,409
  3,654
  3,908
  4,173
  4,448
  4,734
  5,032
  5,342
  5,665
  6,001
  6,352
Tax expense, $m
  27
  102
  124
  148
  174
  204
  235
  270
  306
  345
  386
  430
  475
  523
  573
  626
  680
  737
  796
  857
  920
  987
  1,055
  1,127
  1,201
  1,278
  1,359
  1,442
  1,529
  1,620
  1,715
Net income, $m
  258
  276
  335
  400
  472
  551
  636
  729
  828
  933
  1,044
  1,162
  1,286
  1,415
  1,550
  1,692
  1,839
  1,992
  2,151
  2,317
  2,489
  2,667
  2,853
  3,046
  3,247
  3,456
  3,673
  3,900
  4,135
  4,381
  4,637

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  604
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  973
  454
  551
  659
  779
  911
  1,054
  1,208
  1,373
  1,548
  1,734
  1,930
  2,137
  2,353
  2,578
  2,814
  3,060
  3,315
  3,581
  3,857
  4,145
  4,443
  4,753
  5,076
  5,411
  5,760
  6,122
  6,500
  6,893
  7,303
  7,731
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  369
  454
  551
  659
  779
  911
  1,054
  1,208
  1,373
  1,548
  1,734
  1,930
  2,137
  2,353
  2,578
  2,814
  3,060
  3,315
  3,581
  3,857
  4,145
  4,443
  4,753
  5,076
  5,411
  5,760
  6,122
  6,500
  6,893
  7,303
  7,731
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.344
  2.346
  2.345
  2.344
  2.345
  2.344
  2.343
  2.344
  2.343
  2.344
  2.344
  2.345
  2.343
  2.343
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
Average production assets, $m
  14
  17
  21
  25
  29
  34
  40
  45
  51
  58
  65
  72
  80
  88
  97
  106
  115
  124
  134
  145
  155
  167
  178
  190
  203
  216
  230
  244
  259
  274
  290
Working capital, $m
  854
  326
  395
  473
  559
  653
  756
  866
  985
  1,110
  1,244
  1,385
  1,532
  1,687
  1,849
  2,018
  2,195
  2,378
  2,569
  2,767
  2,973
  3,187
  3,409
  3,641
  3,881
  4,131
  4,391
  4,662
  4,944
  5,238
  5,545
Total debt, $m
  257
  295
  382
  479
  587
  706
  834
  973
  1,121
  1,279
  1,447
  1,623
  1,809
  2,003
  2,207
  2,419
  2,640
  2,870
  3,109
  3,358
  3,616
  3,885
  4,164
  4,454
  4,756
  5,070
  5,396
  5,736
  6,090
  6,459
  6,844
Total liabilities, $m
  371
  409
  496
  593
  701
  820
  948
  1,087
  1,235
  1,393
  1,561
  1,737
  1,923
  2,117
  2,321
  2,533
  2,754
  2,984
  3,223
  3,472
  3,730
  3,999
  4,278
  4,568
  4,870
  5,184
  5,510
  5,850
  6,204
  6,573
  6,958
Total equity, $m
  602
  45
  55
  66
  78
  91
  105
  121
  137
  155
  173
  193
  214
  235
  258
  281
  306
  332
  358
  386
  414
  444
  475
  508
  541
  576
  612
  650
  689
  730
  773
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  973
  454
  551
  659
  779
  911
  1,053
  1,208
  1,372
  1,548
  1,734
  1,930
  2,137
  2,352
  2,579
  2,814
  3,060
  3,316
  3,581
  3,858
  4,144
  4,443
  4,753
  5,076
  5,411
  5,760
  6,122
  6,500
  6,893
  7,303
  7,731
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.427
  6.490
  6.930
  7.270
  7.540
  7.750
  7.920
  8.060
  8.170
  8.260
  8.340
  8.410
  8.470
  8.520
  8.560
  8.590
  8.630
  8.660
  8.680
  8.700
  8.720
  8.740
  8.760
  8.780
  8.790
  8.800
  8.810
  8.820
  8.830
  8.840
  8.850
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.005
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  258
  276
  335
  400
  472
  551
  636
  729
  828
  933
  1,044
  1,162
  1,286
  1,415
  1,550
  1,692
  1,839
  1,992
  2,151
  2,317
  2,489
  2,667
  2,853
  3,046
  3,247
  3,456
  3,673
  3,900
  4,135
  4,381
  4,637
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
Funds from operations, $m
  -20
  279
  339
  405
  478
  558
  644
  738
  838
  945
  1,057
  1,177
  1,302
  1,433
  1,570
  1,713
  1,862
  2,017
  2,178
  2,346
  2,520
  2,701
  2,889
  3,084
  3,288
  3,499
  3,719
  3,948
  4,187
  4,436
  4,695
Change in working capital, $m
  -132
  61
  69
  78
  86
  94
  102
  110
  118
  126
  133
  141
  148
  155
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  198
  206
  214
  222
  231
  240
  250
  260
  271
  282
  294
  307
Cash from operations, $m
  112
  218
  269
  327
  392
  463
  542
  627
  720
  819
  924
  1,036
  1,154
  1,278
  1,408
  1,544
  1,685
  1,833
  1,987
  2,147
  2,314
  2,487
  2,666
  2,853
  3,047
  3,249
  3,459
  3,677
  3,905
  4,142
  4,388
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
Free cash flow, $m
  105
  212
  262
  319
  382
  452
  530
  614
  704
  802
  906
  1,015
  1,132
  1,254
  1,382
  1,515
  1,655
  1,801
  1,952
  2,110
  2,274
  2,444
  2,621
  2,805
  2,997
  3,195
  3,402
  3,617
  3,841
  4,074
  4,317
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  54
  53
  87
  97
  108
  118
  129
  139
  148
  158
  167
  177
  186
  194
  203
  212
  221
  230
  239
  249
  258
  269
  279
  290
  302
  314
  327
  340
  354
  369
  385
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -104
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -52
  53
  87
  97
  108
  118
  129
  139
  148
  158
  167
  177
  186
  194
  203
  212
  221
  230
  239
  249
  258
  269
  279
  290
  302
  314
  327
  340
  354
  369
  385
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  53
  265
  349
  416
  490
  571
  658
  752
  853
  960
  1,073
  1,192
  1,317
  1,448
  1,585
  1,728
  1,876
  2,031
  2,192
  2,359
  2,532
  2,713
  2,901
  3,096
  3,298
  3,509
  3,729
  3,957
  4,195
  4,443
  4,702
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -162
  -32
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  589
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  821
  340
  405
  478
  558
  644
  737
  836
  942
  1,054
  1,172
  1,296
  1,426
  1,562
  1,704
  1,852
  2,005
  2,165
  2,331
  2,504
  2,683
  2,870
  3,063
  3,265
  3,474
  3,692
  3,919
  4,156
  4,402
  4,659
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  788
  311
  353
  394
  432
  467
  498
  523
  541
  553
  557
  553
  542
  524
  500
  471
  436
  399
  359
  318
  278
  238
  201
  166
  135
  108
  84
  64
  48
  35
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ubiquiti Networks, Inc. develops performance networking technology for service providers and enterprises. The Company offers a portfolio of networking products and solutions. Its service provider product platforms provide carrier-class network infrastructure for fixed wireless broadband, wireless backhaul systems and routing. Its enterprise product platforms provide wireless local area network (WLAN) infrastructure, video surveillance products, switching and routing solutions, and machine-to-machine communication components. Its products and solutions include radios, antennas, software, communications protocols and management tools that are designed to deliver carrier and enterprise class wireless broadband access and other services primarily in the unlicensed radio frequency spectrum. Its service provider and carrier solutions include Base Station/Backhaul/Customer Premise Equipment (CPE)/Bridge-airMAX, Network Routing Platform-EdgeMAX and Point-to-point Wireless Backhaul-airFiber.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.4
Price to Sales 6.1
Price to Book 8.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 47
Price to Free Cash Flow 50.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 29.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 40
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity 40.2%
Total Debt to Equity 42.7%
Interest Coverage 58
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 30.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.9%
Return On Total Capital 34.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.1%
Return On Equity 49.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.5%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 45.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.2%
EBITDA Margin 34.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.4%
Operating Margin 33.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 32.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.2%
Net Profit Margin 29.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.9%
Effective Tax Rate 9.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

UBNT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UBNT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $865 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ubiquiti Networks. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Ubiquiti Networks. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UBNT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 23.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for UBNT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ubiquiti Networks, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ubiquiti Networks.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UBNT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 63.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UBNT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Ubiquiti Networks.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ubiquiti Networks. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UBNT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UBNT are equal to 1.6%.

Life of production assets of 1.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ubiquiti Networks operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UBNT is equal to 30.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $602 million for Ubiquiti Networks - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 80.306 million for Ubiquiti Networks is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ubiquiti Networks at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Is Ubiquiti Networks Inc a Millionaire-Maker Stock?   [Nov-17-17 05:33PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ubiquiti beats 1Q profit forecasts   [08:42AM  Associated Press]
▶ When To Buy Stocks: Why Don't All Breakaway Gaps Work?   [08:45AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Stocks To Watch: Ubiquiti Networks Sees RS Rating Rise To 83   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ It's Buyer Beware on Ubiquiti Networks   [03:52PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ [$$] Ubiquiti/Citron: sour power   [07:40AM  Financial Times]
Financial statements of UBNT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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