Intrinsic value of Ubiquiti Networks - UBNT

Previous Close

$73.65

  Intrinsic Value

$118.27

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+61%

Previous close

$73.65

 
Intrinsic value

$118.27

 
Up/down potential

+61%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of UBNT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  29.88
  20.00
  18.50
  17.15
  15.94
  14.84
  13.86
  12.97
  12.17
  11.46
  10.81
  10.23
  9.71
  9.24
  8.81
  8.43
  8.09
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.03
  6.82
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
  5.71
Revenue, $m
  865
  1,038
  1,230
  1,441
  1,671
  1,919
  2,184
  2,468
  2,768
  3,085
  3,419
  3,769
  4,134
  4,516
  4,914
  5,329
  5,760
  6,208
  6,674
  7,157
  7,660
  8,183
  8,727
  9,292
  9,880
  10,492
  11,130
  11,794
  12,487
  13,209
  13,963
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  661
  784
  918
  1,064
  1,222
  1,391
  1,572
  1,763
  1,965
  2,178
  2,401
  2,634
  2,877
  3,130
  3,394
  3,669
  3,954
  4,251
  4,559
  4,880
  5,213
  5,559
  5,919
  6,293
  6,683
  7,090
  7,513
  7,954
  8,414
  8,894
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  576
  661
  784
  918
  1,064
  1,222
  1,391
  1,572
  1,763
  1,965
  2,178
  2,401
  2,634
  2,877
  3,130
  3,394
  3,669
  3,954
  4,251
  4,559
  4,880
  5,213
  5,559
  5,919
  6,293
  6,683
  7,090
  7,513
  7,954
  8,414
  8,894
Operating income, $m
  290
  377
  447
  523
  606
  696
  793
  896
  1,005
  1,120
  1,241
  1,368
  1,501
  1,639
  1,784
  1,934
  2,091
  2,253
  2,422
  2,598
  2,781
  2,970
  3,168
  3,373
  3,586
  3,809
  4,040
  4,281
  4,533
  4,795
  5,068
EBITDA, $m
  297
  380
  450
  528
  612
  703
  800
  904
  1,014
  1,130
  1,252
  1,380
  1,514
  1,654
  1,800
  1,951
  2,109
  2,273
  2,444
  2,621
  2,805
  2,997
  3,196
  3,403
  3,618
  3,842
  4,076
  4,319
  4,573
  4,837
  5,113
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  8
  10
  13
  15
  18
  22
  25
  29
  33
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  62
  68
  73
  79
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  137
  146
  155
  164
  174
Earnings before tax, $m
  285
  368
  437
  511
  591
  678
  771
  870
  976
  1,087
  1,204
  1,326
  1,454
  1,588
  1,727
  1,872
  2,023
  2,180
  2,343
  2,512
  2,689
  2,872
  3,062
  3,260
  3,466
  3,680
  3,903
  4,136
  4,378
  4,631
  4,895
Tax expense, $m
  27
  99
  118
  138
  160
  183
  208
  235
  263
  293
  325
  358
  393
  429
  466
  506
  546
  589
  633
  678
  726
  775
  827
  880
  936
  994
  1,054
  1,117
  1,182
  1,250
  1,322
Net income, $m
  258
  269
  319
  373
  431
  495
  563
  635
  712
  793
  879
  968
  1,062
  1,159
  1,261
  1,367
  1,477
  1,591
  1,710
  1,834
  1,963
  2,096
  2,235
  2,380
  2,530
  2,686
  2,849
  3,019
  3,196
  3,381
  3,573

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  604
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  973
  443
  525
  615
  713
  818
  932
  1,053
  1,181
  1,316
  1,459
  1,608
  1,764
  1,927
  2,097
  2,273
  2,457
  2,648
  2,847
  3,054
  3,268
  3,491
  3,723
  3,964
  4,215
  4,476
  4,748
  5,032
  5,327
  5,635
  5,957
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  369
  443
  525
  615
  713
  818
  932
  1,053
  1,181
  1,316
  1,459
  1,608
  1,764
  1,927
  2,097
  2,273
  2,457
  2,648
  2,847
  3,054
  3,268
  3,491
  3,723
  3,964
  4,215
  4,476
  4,748
  5,032
  5,327
  5,635
  5,957
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.344
  2.343
  2.343
  2.343
  2.344
  2.346
  2.343
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.343
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.343
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.343
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
  2.344
Average production assets, $m
  14
  17
  20
  23
  27
  31
  35
  39
  44
  49
  55
  60
  66
  72
  79
  85
  92
  99
  107
  115
  123
  131
  140
  149
  158
  168
  178
  189
  200
  211
  223
Working capital, $m
  854
  318
  376
  441
  511
  587
  668
  755
  847
  944
  1,046
  1,153
  1,265
  1,382
  1,504
  1,631
  1,762
  1,900
  2,042
  2,190
  2,344
  2,504
  2,670
  2,843
  3,023
  3,211
  3,406
  3,609
  3,821
  4,042
  4,273
Total debt, $m
  257
  285
  358
  439
  527
  623
  725
  834
  949
  1,071
  1,199
  1,333
  1,473
  1,620
  1,773
  1,932
  2,098
  2,270
  2,448
  2,634
  2,827
  3,028
  3,237
  3,454
  3,679
  3,915
  4,159
  4,414
  4,680
  4,958
  5,247
Total liabilities, $m
  371
  399
  472
  553
  641
  737
  839
  948
  1,063
  1,185
  1,313
  1,447
  1,587
  1,734
  1,887
  2,046
  2,212
  2,384
  2,562
  2,748
  2,941
  3,142
  3,351
  3,568
  3,793
  4,029
  4,273
  4,528
  4,794
  5,072
  5,361
Total equity, $m
  602
  44
  52
  61
  71
  82
  93
  105
  118
  132
  146
  161
  176
  193
  210
  227
  246
  265
  285
  305
  327
  349
  372
  396
  421
  448
  475
  503
  533
  564
  596
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  973
  443
  524
  614
  712
  819
  932
  1,053
  1,181
  1,317
  1,459
  1,608
  1,763
  1,927
  2,097
  2,273
  2,458
  2,649
  2,847
  3,053
  3,268
  3,491
  3,723
  3,964
  4,214
  4,477
  4,748
  5,031
  5,327
  5,636
  5,957
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.427
  6.430
  6.830
  7.150
  7.400
  7.610
  7.780
  7.920
  8.030
  8.130
  8.220
  8.290
  8.350
  8.410
  8.460
  8.500
  8.540
  8.570
  8.600
  8.630
  8.650
  8.670
  8.690
  8.710
  8.730
  8.750
  8.760
  8.770
  8.790
  8.800
  8.810
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.005
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  258
  269
  319
  373
  431
  495
  563
  635
  712
  793
  879
  968
  1,062
  1,159
  1,261
  1,367
  1,477
  1,591
  1,710
  1,834
  1,963
  2,096
  2,235
  2,380
  2,530
  2,686
  2,849
  3,019
  3,196
  3,381
  3,573
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
Funds from operations, $m
  -20
  272
  323
  377
  437
  501
  570
  643
  721
  803
  890
  980
  1,075
  1,174
  1,277
  1,384
  1,495
  1,611
  1,732
  1,857
  1,987
  2,122
  2,263
  2,409
  2,561
  2,720
  2,885
  3,057
  3,236
  3,423
  3,618
Change in working capital, $m
  -132
  53
  59
  65
  70
  76
  81
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  148
  154
  160
  166
  173
  180
  187
  195
  203
  212
  221
  231
Cash from operations, $m
  112
  219
  264
  313
  367
  425
  489
  557
  629
  706
  787
  873
  963
  1,057
  1,155
  1,257
  1,363
  1,474
  1,589
  1,709
  1,833
  1,962
  2,097
  2,236
  2,381
  2,533
  2,690
  2,853
  3,024
  3,202
  3,387
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
Free cash flow, $m
  105
  213
  257
  305
  358
  416
  478
  545
  616
  692
  772
  857
  945
  1,037
  1,134
  1,235
  1,340
  1,449
  1,562
  1,680
  1,802
  1,930
  2,062
  2,199
  2,342
  2,491
  2,646
  2,807
  2,975
  3,150
  3,333
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  54
  43
  74
  81
  88
  95
  102
  109
  115
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  186
  193
  201
  209
  217
  226
  235
  245
  255
  266
  277
  289
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -104
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -52
  43
  74
  81
  88
  95
  102
  109
  115
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  186
  193
  201
  209
  217
  226
  235
  245
  255
  266
  277
  289
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  53
  256
  331
  386
  446
  511
  580
  654
  732
  814
  900
  991
  1,085
  1,184
  1,287
  1,394
  1,505
  1,621
  1,741
  1,866
  1,995
  2,130
  2,270
  2,416
  2,568
  2,726
  2,891
  3,062
  3,241
  3,428
  3,622
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -162
  -31
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  589
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  814
  323
  377
  437
  500
  569
  642
  719
  800
  886
  976
  1,070
  1,168
  1,270
  1,376
  1,487
  1,602
  1,721
  1,845
  1,974
  2,108
  2,247
  2,392
  2,543
  2,700
  2,864
  3,034
  3,212
  3,397
  3,590
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  780
  296
  328
  360
  388
  413
  434
  449
  460
  465
  463
  457
  444
  426
  404
  378
  348
  317
  284
  251
  218
  186
  157
  130
  105
  84
  65
  50
  37
  27
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ubiquiti Networks, Inc. develops performance networking technology for service providers and enterprises. The Company offers a portfolio of networking products and solutions. Its service provider product platforms provide carrier-class network infrastructure for fixed wireless broadband, wireless backhaul systems and routing. Its enterprise product platforms provide wireless local area network (WLAN) infrastructure, video surveillance products, switching and routing solutions, and machine-to-machine communication components. Its products and solutions include radios, antennas, software, communications protocols and management tools that are designed to deliver carrier and enterprise class wireless broadband access and other services primarily in the unlicensed radio frequency spectrum. Its service provider and carrier solutions include Base Station/Backhaul/Customer Premise Equipment (CPE)/Bridge-airMAX, Network Routing Platform-EdgeMAX and Point-to-point Wireless Backhaul-airFiber.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.9
Price to Sales 6.8
Price to Book 9.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 52.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 56.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 29.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 40
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity 40.2%
Total Debt to Equity 42.7%
Interest Coverage 58
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 30.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.9%
Return On Total Capital 34.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.1%
Return On Equity 49.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.5%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 45.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.2%
EBITDA Margin 34.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.4%
Operating Margin 33.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 32.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.2%
Net Profit Margin 29.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.9%
Effective Tax Rate 9.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

UBNT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UBNT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $865 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ubiquiti Networks. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Ubiquiti Networks. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UBNT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for UBNT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ubiquiti Networks, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ubiquiti Networks.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UBNT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 63.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UBNT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Ubiquiti Networks.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ubiquiti Networks. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UBNT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UBNT are equal to 1.6%.

Life of production assets of 1.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ubiquiti Networks operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UBNT is equal to 30.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $602 million for Ubiquiti Networks - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 78.288 million for Ubiquiti Networks is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ubiquiti Networks at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Ubiquiti Networks, Inc. Stock Popped 22.9% in 2017   [Jan-17-18 11:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Time to Get Greedy With Ubiquiti Networks, Inc. Stock   [Dec-29-17 10:05AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ubiquiti Networks Shows Market Leadership With Jump To 92 RS Rating   [Dec-19-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Stocks To Watch: Ubiquiti Networks Sees Relative Strength Rating Rise To 82   [Dec-14-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Is Ubiquiti Networks Inc a Millionaire-Maker Stock?   [Nov-17-17 05:33PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ubiquiti beats 1Q profit forecasts   [08:42AM  Associated Press]
▶ When To Buy Stocks: Why Don't All Breakaway Gaps Work?   [08:45AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Stocks To Watch: Ubiquiti Networks Sees RS Rating Rise To 83   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
Financial statements of UBNT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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