Intrinsic value of Net 1 U.E.P.S. Technologies - UEPS

Previous Close

$9.47

  Intrinsic Value

$56.14

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+493%

  Value-price divergence*

-4%

Previous close

$9.47

 
Intrinsic value

$56.14

 
Up/down potential

+493%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-4%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of UEPS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.59
  9.60
  9.14
  8.73
  8.35
  8.02
  7.72
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
Revenue, $m
  591
  648
  707
  769
  833
  900
  969
  1,041
  1,116
  1,194
  1,275
  1,359
  1,447
  1,538
  1,633
  1,732
  1,835
  1,942
  2,054
  2,171
  2,293
  2,420
  2,554
  2,693
  2,838
  2,991
  3,150
  3,317
  3,492
  3,675
  3,866
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  388
  421
  457
  493
  531
  571
  612
  655
  699
  746
  776
  826
  878
  932
  988
  1,047
  1,108
  1,172
  1,239
  1,309
  1,381
  1,457
  1,537
  1,620
  1,707
  1,798
  1,893
  1,993
  2,097
  2,207
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  127
  130
  134
  137
  140
  144
  147
  151
  155
  159
  163
  167
  171
  175
  180
  184
  189
  193
  198
  203
  208
  213
  219
  224
  230
  236
  242
  248
  254
  260
Total operating expenses, $m
  476
  515
  551
  591
  630
  671
  715
  759
  806
  854
  905
  939
  993
  1,049
  1,107
  1,168
  1,231
  1,297
  1,365
  1,437
  1,512
  1,589
  1,670
  1,756
  1,844
  1,937
  2,034
  2,135
  2,241
  2,351
  2,467
Operating income, $m
  114
  133
  155
  179
  203
  228
  254
  282
  310
  340
  371
  421
  454
  489
  526
  564
  604
  645
  688
  734
  781
  831
  883
  937
  994
  1,054
  1,117
  1,182
  1,251
  1,324
  1,400
EBITDA, $m
  154
  162
  185
  210
  235
  261
  289
  317
  347
  378
  411
  444
  479
  516
  554
  594
  635
  678
  724
  771
  821
  872
  927
  984
  1,043
  1,105
  1,171
  1,240
  1,311
  1,387
  1,466
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  2
  6
  9
  13
  17
  21
  25
  29
  34
  38
  43
  48
  54
  59
  65
  71
  77
  83
  90
  97
  104
  112
  120
  128
  137
  146
  155
  165
  176
  187
Earnings before tax, $m
  126
  131
  150
  169
  190
  211
  233
  257
  281
  306
  332
  378
  406
  436
  467
  499
  533
  568
  605
  644
  684
  727
  771
  817
  866
  917
  971
  1,027
  1,086
  1,148
  1,213
Tax expense, $m
  42
  35
  40
  46
  51
  57
  63
  69
  76
  83
  90
  102
  110
  118
  126
  135
  144
  153
  163
  174
  185
  196
  208
  221
  234
  248
  262
  277
  293
  310
  328
Net income, $m
  82
  95
  109
  124
  139
  154
  170
  187
  205
  223
  243
  276
  296
  318
  341
  364
  389
  415
  442
  470
  500
  530
  563
  597
  632
  670
  709
  750
  793
  838
  885

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  224
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,264
  1,140
  1,245
  1,353
  1,466
  1,584
  1,706
  1,833
  1,965
  2,102
  2,245
  2,393
  2,547
  2,708
  2,875
  3,049
  3,230
  3,419
  3,616
  3,822
  4,037
  4,261
  4,496
  4,741
  4,997
  5,265
  5,546
  5,840
  6,148
  6,470
  6,807
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,040
  1,140
  1,245
  1,353
  1,466
  1,584
  1,706
  1,833
  1,965
  2,102
  2,245
  2,393
  2,547
  2,708
  2,875
  3,049
  3,230
  3,419
  3,616
  3,822
  4,037
  4,261
  4,496
  4,741
  4,997
  5,265
  5,546
  5,840
  6,148
  6,470
  6,807
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
Average production assets, $m
  102
  111
  122
  132
  143
  155
  167
  179
  192
  205
  219
  234
  249
  265
  281
  298
  316
  334
  353
  373
  394
  416
  439
  463
  488
  514
  542
  571
  601
  632
  665
Working capital, $m
  322
  117
  128
  139
  151
  163
  175
  188
  202
  216
  231
  246
  262
  278
  296
  313
  332
  352
  372
  393
  415
  438
  462
  487
  514
  541
  570
  600
  632
  665
  700
Total debt, $m
  52
  106
  172
  240
  311
  385
  462
  542
  625
  711
  801
  894
  991
  1,092
  1,197
  1,307
  1,421
  1,540
  1,664
  1,793
  1,928
  2,069
  2,217
  2,371
  2,532
  2,701
  2,878
  3,062
  3,256
  3,458
  3,671
Total liabilities, $m
  663
  717
  783
  851
  922
  996
  1,073
  1,153
  1,236
  1,322
  1,412
  1,505
  1,602
  1,703
  1,808
  1,918
  2,032
  2,151
  2,275
  2,404
  2,539
  2,680
  2,828
  2,982
  3,143
  3,312
  3,489
  3,673
  3,867
  4,069
  4,282
Total equity, $m
  601
  423
  462
  502
  544
  588
  633
  680
  729
  780
  833
  888
  945
  1,005
  1,067
  1,131
  1,198
  1,268
  1,342
  1,418
  1,498
  1,581
  1,668
  1,759
  1,854
  1,953
  2,058
  2,167
  2,281
  2,400
  2,525
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,264
  1,140
  1,245
  1,353
  1,466
  1,584
  1,706
  1,833
  1,965
  2,102
  2,245
  2,393
  2,547
  2,708
  2,875
  3,049
  3,230
  3,419
  3,617
  3,822
  4,037
  4,261
  4,496
  4,741
  4,997
  5,265
  5,547
  5,840
  6,148
  6,469
  6,807
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.087
  0.250
  0.370
  0.480
  0.570
  0.660
  0.730
  0.800
  0.860
  0.910
  0.960
  1.010
  1.050
  1.090
  1.120
  1.160
  1.190
  1.210
  1.240
  1.260
  1.290
  1.310
  1.330
  1.350
  1.370
  1.380
  1.400
  1.410
  1.430
  1.440
  1.450
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.363
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  82
  95
  109
  124
  139
  154
  170
  187
  205
  223
  243
  276
  296
  318
  341
  364
  389
  415
  442
  470
  500
  530
  563
  597
  632
  670
  709
  750
  793
  838
  885
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  40
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
Funds from operations, $m
  108
  124
  139
  155
  171
  188
  205
  223
  242
  262
  282
  299
  321
  345
  369
  394
  421
  448
  477
  507
  539
  572
  607
  643
  681
  721
  763
  807
  853
  901
  952
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
Cash from operations, $m
  117
  114
  129
  144
  159
  175
  192
  210
  229
  248
  268
  284
  305
  328
  352
  376
  402
  429
  457
  486
  517
  549
  583
  618
  655
  693
  734
  777
  821
  868
  917
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
New CAPEX, $m
  -36
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -6
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
Free cash flow, $m
  111
  94
  107
  121
  135
  150
  165
  181
  198
  215
  233
  247
  267
  288
  309
  331
  354
  379
  404
  431
  459
  488
  518
  550
  583
  618
  655
  694
  734
  777
  821
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -7
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  148
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  193
  203
  212
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  85
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  14
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  148
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  193
  203
  212
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  106
  157
  173
  189
  206
  224
  242
  261
  281
  301
  323
  341
  364
  388
  414
  441
  469
  498
  528
  560
  594
  629
  666
  704
  745
  787
  832
  879
  928
  979
  1,033
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -123
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  215
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  335
  134
  149
  164
  180
  197
  214
  232
  251
  270
  286
  307
  329
  352
  376
  401
  428
  455
  484
  514
  546
  579
  613
  650
  688
  728
  770
  814
  860
  908
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  322
  123
  129
  135
  140
  143
  144
  145
  144
  142
  136
  131
  125
  118
  110
  102
  93
  84
  75
  65
  56
  48
  40
  33
  27
  21
  17
  13
  9
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Net 1 UEPS Technologies, Inc. provides payment solutions, transaction processing services, and financial technologies to various industries in South Africa, South Korea, and internationally. The company develops and markets transaction processing solutions that comprise its smart card-based alternative payment system for the unbanked and under-banked populations of developing economies, and for mobile transaction channels. It operates through three segments: South African Transaction Processing, International Transaction Processing, and Financial Inclusion and Applied Technologies. The South African Transaction Processing segment provides welfare benefit distribution services to the South African government and transaction processing for retailers, utilities, medical-related claim service customers, and banks. The International Transaction Processing segment offers payment processing services to merchants and card issuers through its value-added network. The Financial Inclusion and Applied Technologies segment provides short-term loans; and smart card accounts. This segment also sells prepaid products comprising electricity and airtime, as well as hardware and software products; and offers life insurance products. Net 1 UEPS Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Net 1 U.E.P.S. Technologies (UEPS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 6.4
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 25
Current Ratio 0.9
LT Debt to Equity 7.2%
Total Debt to Equity 8.7%
Interest Coverage 43
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Return On Total Capital 13.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Return On Equity 15.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.8%
EBITDA Margin 28.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.3%
Operating Margin 19.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.8%
Net Profit Margin 13.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

UEPS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UEPS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $591 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Net 1 U.E.P.S. Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Net 1 U.E.P.S. Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UEPS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for UEPS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Net 1 U.E.P.S. Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Net 1 U.E.P.S. Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UEPS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 60.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $124 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UEPS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Net 1 U.E.P.S. Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Net 1 U.E.P.S. Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UEPS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UEPS are equal to 17.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Net 1 U.E.P.S. Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UEPS is equal to 18.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $601 million for Net 1 U.E.P.S. Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 51.484 million for Net 1 U.E.P.S. Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Net 1 U.E.P.S. Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Net1 Concludes Investments in Cell C and DNI   [Aug-07-17 07:45AM  Marketwired]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for June 20th   [Jun-20-17 10:37AM  Zacks]
▶ Net1 appoints Alfred Mockett to its board of directors   [May-31-17 04:05PM  Marketwired]
▶ Bargain Tech Stock Out Of Africa   [May-23-17 06:30AM  Forbes]
▶ National Prosecuting Authority closes case against Net1   [May-18-17 09:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ Net 1 UEPS posts 3Q profit   [May-04-17 06:53PM  Associated Press]
▶ Net1 Sets the Record Straight With External Verification   [Apr-21-17 11:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for March 31st   [Mar-31-17 10:46AM  Zacks]
▶ South Africa Moves to Keep Welfare Flowing   [02:45AM  at Bloomberg]
▶ Is Lands End, Inc. (LE) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-20-16 02:19PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of UEPS Financial statements of UEPS
Valuation of Stocks

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