Intrinsic value of Unifi - UFI

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$27.71

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$27.71

 
Intrinsic value

$7.35

 
Up/down potential

-73%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of UFI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -6.26
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  644
  657
  672
  689
  709
  730
  754
  779
  807
  837
  869
  904
  940
  979
  1,021
  1,065
  1,112
  1,161
  1,213
  1,268
  1,327
  1,388
  1,453
  1,521
  1,593
  1,669
  1,749
  1,833
  1,922
  2,015
  2,113
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  621
  636
  652
  670
  691
  713
  737
  764
  792
  822
  855
  889
  926
  966
  1,007
  1,051
  1,098
  1,148
  1,200
  1,255
  1,313
  1,374
  1,439
  1,507
  1,579
  1,655
  1,734
  1,818
  1,906
  1,998
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  601
  621
  636
  652
  670
  691
  713
  737
  764
  792
  822
  855
  889
  926
  966
  1,007
  1,051
  1,098
  1,148
  1,200
  1,255
  1,313
  1,374
  1,439
  1,507
  1,579
  1,655
  1,734
  1,818
  1,906
  1,998
Operating income, $m
  43
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  68
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
EBITDA, $m
  61
  54
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  137
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
Earnings before tax, $m
  48
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
Tax expense, $m
  15
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Net income, $m
  34
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  525
  518
  530
  544
  559
  576
  594
  615
  637
  660
  686
  713
  742
  772
  805
  840
  877
  916
  957
  1,000
  1,046
  1,095
  1,146
  1,200
  1,257
  1,316
  1,379
  1,446
  1,515
  1,589
  1,666
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  508
  518
  530
  544
  559
  576
  594
  615
  637
  660
  686
  713
  742
  772
  805
  840
  877
  916
  957
  1,000
  1,046
  1,095
  1,146
  1,200
  1,257
  1,316
  1,379
  1,446
  1,515
  1,589
  1,666
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.267
  1.268
  1.267
  1.269
  1.267
  1.267
  1.268
  1.267
  1.268
  1.267
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.267
  1.268
  1.268
  1.269
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.267
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.269
  1.268
  1.268
Average production assets, $m
  165
  168
  172
  176
  181
  187
  193
  200
  207
  214
  223
  231
  241
  251
  261
  273
  285
  297
  311
  325
  340
  355
  372
  389
  408
  427
  448
  469
  492
  516
  541
Working capital, $m
  137
  137
  140
  143
  147
  152
  157
  162
  168
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  212
  221
  231
  241
  252
  264
  276
  289
  302
  316
  331
  347
  364
  381
  400
  419
  439
Total debt, $m
  122
  112
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  155
  164
  173
  183
  193
  205
  217
  229
  243
  257
  272
  288
  305
  323
  341
  361
  382
  404
  427
  451
  477
  504
  532
Total liabilities, $m
  200
  190
  194
  199
  205
  211
  218
  225
  233
  242
  251
  261
  271
  283
  295
  307
  321
  335
  350
  366
  383
  401
  419
  439
  460
  482
  505
  529
  555
  582
  610
Total equity, $m
  325
  328
  336
  345
  354
  365
  377
  390
  404
  419
  435
  452
  470
  490
  510
  532
  556
  580
  607
  634
  663
  694
  726
  761
  797
  835
  875
  917
  961
  1,007
  1,056
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  525
  518
  530
  544
  559
  576
  595
  615
  637
  661
  686
  713
  741
  773
  805
  839
  877
  915
  957
  1,000
  1,046
  1,095
  1,145
  1,200
  1,257
  1,317
  1,380
  1,446
  1,516
  1,589
  1,666
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.375
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.606
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  34
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
Funds from operations, $m
  62
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  47
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  89
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
Cash from operations, $m
  56
  63
  39
  40
  41
  41
  42
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
New CAPEX, $m
  -52
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -53
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
Free cash flow, $m
  3
  42
  17
  17
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  9
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  4
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  45
  21
  22
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -28
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  42
  14
  13
  12
  12
  11
  11
  10
  10
  9
  9
  9
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
Discount rate, %
 
  4.70
  4.94
  5.18
  5.44
  5.71
  6.00
  6.30
  6.61
  6.94
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.77
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.09
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.71
  17.55
  18.42
  19.35
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  40
  13
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Unifi, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells polyester and nylon yarns in the United States, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Polyester, Nylon, and International. The Polyester segment manufactures polyester polymer bead, partially oriented, textured, dyed, twisted, beamed, and draw wound yarns to other yarn manufacturers, and knitters and weavers that produce yarn and/or fabric for the apparel, hosiery, automotive upholstery, home furnishings, industrial, and other end-use markets. The Nylon segment manufactures textured, solution dyed, and spandex covered yarns to knitters and weavers that produce fabric primarily for the apparel and hosiery markets. The International segment provides textured polyester, and various types of resale yarns and staple fibers to knitters and weavers that produce fabric for the apparel, automotive upholstery, home furnishings, industrial, and other end-use markets. The company sells its products through its sales force and independent sales agents under the brand names REPREVE, Sorbtek, Reflexx, aio, Augusta, and A.M.Y. Unifi, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Greensboro, North Carolina.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Unifi (UFI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.5
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 123.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 42%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 33.2%
Total Debt to Equity 37.5%
Interest Coverage 17
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Return On Total Capital 8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Return On Equity 10.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
EBITDA Margin 10.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Operating Margin 6.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Net Profit Margin 5.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Effective Tax Rate 31.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

UFI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UFI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $644 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Unifi. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Unifi. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UFI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.7%, whose default value for UFI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Unifi, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Unifi.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UFI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UFI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Unifi.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Unifi. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UFI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UFI are equal to 25.6%.

Life of production assets of 9.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Unifi operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UFI is equal to 20.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $325 million for Unifi - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 18.566 million for Unifi is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Unifi at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Unifi (UFI) Stock Might be a Great Pick   [May-10-17 08:48AM  Zacks]
▶ Triad manufacturer names new CEO; CFO resigns   [May-05-17 11:55AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Unifi posts 3Q profit   [Apr-26-17 07:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ Unifi, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:UFI) : April 21, 2017   [Apr-21-17 03:54PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Third Quarter Fiscal 2017 Earnings Conference Call   [Apr-11-17 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ How to put an end to Wi-Fi frustrations   [Apr-04-17 11:25AM  ZDNet]
▶ Former Unifi exec drops lawsuit   [Mar-27-17 06:50AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Former Unifi exec drops lawsuit   [06:50AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Can Ubiquitis Run Continue in 2017?   [Feb-07-17 05:11PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Can Ubiquitis Run Continue in 2017?   [05:11PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Unifi, Inc., Brings Home Gold at World Textile Awards   [Feb-06-17 10:37AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is Xenith Bankshares Inc (XBKS) Going To Burn These Hedge Funds?   [Dec-20-16 02:07PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ How Unifi, Inc. (UFI) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-14-16 03:21AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Unifi First Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call   [Oct-18-16 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Unifi Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call/Web Cast   [Jul-20-16 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Why Unifi (UFI) Stock Might be a Great Pick   [Apr-27-16 09:04AM  Zacks]
▶ Unifi, Inc.: Strong price momentum but will it sustain?   [Apr-22-16 04:28PM  at Capital Cube]
Stock chart of UFI Financial statements of UFI Annual reports of UFI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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