Intrinsic value of Unifi - UFI

Previous Close

$36.81

  Intrinsic Value

$9.76

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-73%

Previous close

$36.81

 
Intrinsic value

$9.76

 
Up/down potential

-73%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of UFI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.47
  2.50
  2.75
  2.97
  3.18
  3.36
  3.52
  3.67
  3.80
  3.92
  4.03
  4.13
  4.22
  4.29
  4.36
  4.43
  4.49
  4.54
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.70
  4.73
  4.75
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
Revenue, $m
  647
  663
  681
  702
  724
  748
  775
  803
  834
  866
  901
  939
  978
  1,020
  1,065
  1,112
  1,162
  1,214
  1,270
  1,329
  1,391
  1,456
  1,525
  1,597
  1,674
  1,754
  1,838
  1,927
  2,021
  2,119
  2,223
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  619
  636
  655
  676
  699
  724
  750
  779
  809
  842
  877
  914
  953
  994
  1,038
  1,085
  1,134
  1,186
  1,241
  1,299
  1,360
  1,424
  1,492
  1,563
  1,638
  1,717
  1,800
  1,888
  1,979
  2,076
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  605
  619
  636
  655
  676
  699
  724
  750
  779
  809
  842
  877
  914
  953
  994
  1,038
  1,085
  1,134
  1,186
  1,241
  1,299
  1,360
  1,424
  1,492
  1,563
  1,638
  1,717
  1,800
  1,888
  1,979
  2,076
Operating income, $m
  42
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
EBITDA, $m
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  141
  147
  154
  162
  170
  178
  186
  195
  205
  215
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
Earnings before tax, $m
  43
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
Tax expense, $m
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
Net income, $m
  33
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  64
  67
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  38
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  572
  547
  562
  579
  597
  617
  639
  663
  688
  715
  744
  774
  807
  842
  878
  917
  958
  1,002
  1,048
  1,096
  1,147
  1,201
  1,258
  1,318
  1,381
  1,447
  1,517
  1,590
  1,667
  1,749
  1,834
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  534
  547
  562
  579
  597
  617
  639
  663
  688
  715
  744
  774
  807
  842
  878
  917
  958
  1,002
  1,048
  1,096
  1,147
  1,201
  1,258
  1,318
  1,381
  1,447
  1,517
  1,590
  1,667
  1,749
  1,834
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.212
  1.212
  1.212
  1.212
  1.213
  1.212
  1.213
  1.211
  1.212
  1.211
  1.211
  1.213
  1.212
  1.211
  1.213
  1.213
  1.213
  1.212
  1.212
  1.213
  1.213
  1.212
  1.212
  1.212
  1.212
  1.212
  1.212
  1.212
  1.212
  1.212
  1.212
Average production assets, $m
  197
  202
  207
  213
  220
  227
  236
  244
  253
  263
  274
  285
  297
  310
  324
  338
  353
  369
  386
  404
  423
  443
  464
  486
  509
  533
  559
  586
  614
  644
  676
Working capital, $m
  168
  151
  155
  159
  164
  170
  176
  182
  189
  197
  205
  213
  222
  232
  242
  252
  264
  276
  288
  302
  316
  330
  346
  363
  380
  398
  417
  438
  459
  481
  505
Total debt, $m
  128
  116
  121
  127
  134
  141
  149
  158
  167
  176
  187
  198
  210
  223
  236
  250
  265
  281
  297
  315
  334
  353
  374
  395
  418
  442
  468
  494
  522
  552
  583
Total liabilities, $m
  211
  199
  204
  210
  217
  224
  232
  241
  250
  259
  270
  281
  293
  306
  319
  333
  348
  364
  380
  398
  417
  436
  457
  478
  501
  525
  551
  577
  605
  635
  666
Total equity, $m
  361
  349
  358
  369
  381
  393
  407
  422
  438
  455
  474
  493
  514
  536
  560
  584
  611
  638
  667
  698
  731
  765
  801
  839
  880
  922
  966
  1,013
  1,062
  1,114
  1,168
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  572
  548
  562
  579
  598
  617
  639
  663
  688
  714
  744
  774
  807
  842
  879
  917
  959
  1,002
  1,047
  1,096
  1,148
  1,201
  1,258
  1,317
  1,381
  1,447
  1,517
  1,590
  1,667
  1,749
  1,834
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.355
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.605
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  33
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  64
  67
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
Funds from operations, $m
  34
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
Change in working capital, $m
  -12
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Cash from operations, $m
  46
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  109
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
New CAPEX, $m
  -33
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -33
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
Free cash flow, $m
  13
  21
  21
  21
  20
  20
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  3
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  7
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  19
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -36
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  38
  17
  16
  15
  15
  15
  14
  14
  14
  14
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  37
  15
  14
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Unifi, Inc. is a manufacturing company. The Company processes and sells commodity yarns, specialized yarns and premier value-added (PVA) yarns. The Company operates through three segments: Polyester segment, Nylon segment and International segment. The Company's polyester products include polyester polymer beads (Chip), partially oriented yarn (POY), textured, solution and package dyed, twisted, beamed and draw wound yarns. Each polyester product is available in virgin or recycled varieties, where the recycled is made from both pre-consumer yarn waste and post-consumer waste, including plastic bottles. The Company's nylon products include textured, solution dyed and spandex covered products. The Company's products include REPREVE, Sorbtek, Reflexx, aio, Augusta and A.M.Y. The Company's principal geographic markets for its products are located in North America, Central America, South America and Asia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Unifi (UFI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.3
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 51.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -36.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 30.7%
Total Debt to Equity 35.5%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Return On Total Capital 7.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Return On Equity 9.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
EBITDA Margin 10.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Operating Margin 6.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Net Profit Margin 5.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Effective Tax Rate 25.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

UFI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UFI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $647 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Unifi. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Unifi. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UFI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for UFI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Unifi, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Unifi.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UFI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UFI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Unifi.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Unifi. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UFI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UFI are equal to 30.4%.

Life of production assets of 9.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Unifi operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UFI is equal to 22.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $361 million for Unifi - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 18.34 million for Unifi is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Unifi at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ The Triad's best and worst stocks of 2017 (Slideshow)   [07:31AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Unifi, Inc. : November 8, 2017   [Nov-08-17 06:40PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Unifi posts 1Q profit   [07:07AM  Associated Press]
▶ Unifi, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [06:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Triad manufacturer teams with DuPont to create cold weather apparel insulation   [Oct-11-17 03:05PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Unifi, Inc. : September 26, 2017   [Sep-26-17 11:08AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Unifi, Inc. : September 14, 2017   [Sep-13-17 09:27PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Unifi, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:UFI) : August 29, 2017   [Aug-28-17 09:49PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Unifi names new members of executive leadership team   [Aug-07-17 07:20AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Unifi Announces Executive Team Additions and Promotions   [Aug-04-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Unifi posts 4Q profit   [Jul-26-17 09:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Unifi, Inc. : July 7, 2017   [Jul-07-17 03:37PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Unifi, Inc. : June 22, 2017   [Jun-22-17 04:35PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why Unifi (UFI) Stock Might be a Great Pick   [May-10-17 08:48AM  Zacks]
▶ Triad manufacturer names new CEO; CFO resigns   [May-05-17 11:55AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Unifi posts 3Q profit   [Apr-26-17 07:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ Unifi, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:UFI) : April 21, 2017   [Apr-21-17 03:54PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Third Quarter Fiscal 2017 Earnings Conference Call   [Apr-11-17 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ How to put an end to Wi-Fi frustrations   [Apr-04-17 11:25AM  ZDNet]
▶ Former Unifi exec drops lawsuit   [Mar-27-17 06:50AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Former Unifi exec drops lawsuit   [06:50AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Can Ubiquitis Run Continue in 2017?   [Feb-07-17 05:11PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Can Ubiquitis Run Continue in 2017?   [05:11PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Unifi, Inc., Brings Home Gold at World Textile Awards   [Feb-06-17 10:37AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is Xenith Bankshares Inc (XBKS) Going To Burn These Hedge Funds?   [Dec-20-16 02:07PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ How Unifi, Inc. (UFI) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-14-16 03:21AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of UFI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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