Intrinsic value of Universal Forest Products - UFPI

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$96.80

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$96.80

 
Intrinsic value

$95.20

 
Up/down potential

-2%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of UFPI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.23
  12.20
  11.48
  10.83
  10.25
  9.72
  9.25
  8.83
  8.44
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
Revenue, $m
  3,240
  3,635
  4,053
  4,492
  4,952
  5,433
  5,936
  6,460
  7,006
  7,573
  8,163
  8,776
  9,413
  10,075
  10,763
  11,479
  12,223
  12,997
  13,803
  14,642
  15,517
  16,428
  17,379
  18,371
  19,407
  20,489
  21,619
  22,801
  24,036
  25,329
  26,681
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,335
  3,715
  4,116
  4,535
  4,974
  5,433
  5,911
  6,408
  6,925
  7,463
  8,002
  8,583
  9,187
  9,814
  10,467
  11,145
  11,851
  12,586
  13,352
  14,149
  14,980
  15,847
  16,752
  17,697
  18,683
  19,714
  20,791
  21,918
  23,096
  24,329
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  108
  110
  113
  116
  119
  122
  125
  128
  131
  134
  138
  141
  145
  148
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  176
  181
  185
  190
  195
  200
  205
  210
  215
  220
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,076
  3,443
  3,825
  4,229
  4,651
  5,093
  5,555
  6,036
  6,536
  7,056
  7,597
  8,140
  8,724
  9,332
  9,962
  10,619
  11,301
  12,011
  12,750
  13,520
  14,321
  15,156
  16,028
  16,937
  17,887
  18,878
  19,914
  20,996
  22,128
  23,311
  24,549
Operating income, $m
  164
  193
  227
  263
  301
  340
  382
  425
  470
  516
  565
  636
  688
  743
  800
  860
  921
  986
  1,053
  1,123
  1,196
  1,272
  1,351
  1,434
  1,521
  1,611
  1,706
  1,805
  1,909
  2,018
  2,131
EBITDA, $m
  208
  243
  280
  320
  362
  405
  451
  498
  548
  599
  653
  708
  766
  827
  890
  955
  1,023
  1,094
  1,167
  1,244
  1,324
  1,408
  1,495
  1,586
  1,682
  1,781
  1,885
  1,994
  2,108
  2,228
  2,353
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  5
  7
  10
  12
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  84
  89
  95
  102
  108
  115
  122
  129
  137
Earnings before tax, $m
  161
  188
  220
  253
  288
  325
  363
  404
  445
  489
  534
  601
  650
  701
  755
  810
  867
  927
  990
  1,055
  1,123
  1,193
  1,267
  1,345
  1,425
  1,510
  1,598
  1,690
  1,787
  1,888
  1,995
Tax expense, $m
  55
  51
  59
  68
  78
  88
  98
  109
  120
  132
  144
  162
  176
  189
  204
  219
  234
  250
  267
  285
  303
  322
  342
  363
  385
  408
  431
  456
  483
  510
  539
Net income, $m
  101
  137
  160
  185
  210
  237
  265
  295
  325
  357
  390
  439
  475
  512
  551
  591
  633
  677
  722
  770
  819
  871
  925
  982
  1,040
  1,102
  1,167
  1,234
  1,305
  1,379
  1,456

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  44
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,292
  1,400
  1,561
  1,730
  1,908
  2,093
  2,287
  2,488
  2,699
  2,917
  3,144
  3,381
  3,626
  3,881
  4,146
  4,422
  4,708
  5,007
  5,317
  5,640
  5,977
  6,328
  6,695
  7,077
  7,476
  7,893
  8,328
  8,783
  9,259
  9,757
  10,278
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,248
  1,400
  1,561
  1,730
  1,908
  2,093
  2,287
  2,488
  2,699
  2,917
  3,144
  3,381
  3,626
  3,881
  4,146
  4,422
  4,708
  5,007
  5,317
  5,640
  5,977
  6,328
  6,695
  7,077
  7,476
  7,893
  8,328
  8,783
  9,259
  9,757
  10,278
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.597
  2.595
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
  2.596
Average production assets, $m
  298
  334
  373
  413
  456
  500
  546
  594
  645
  697
  751
  807
  866
  927
  990
  1,056
  1,124
  1,196
  1,270
  1,347
  1,428
  1,511
  1,599
  1,690
  1,785
  1,885
  1,989
  2,098
  2,211
  2,330
  2,455
Working capital, $m
  484
  520
  580
  642
  708
  777
  849
  924
  1,002
  1,083
  1,167
  1,255
  1,346
  1,441
  1,539
  1,641
  1,748
  1,859
  1,974
  2,094
  2,219
  2,349
  2,485
  2,627
  2,775
  2,930
  3,092
  3,261
  3,437
  3,622
  3,815
Total debt, $m
  131
  160
  214
  271
  331
  393
  459
  527
  597
  671
  748
  827
  910
  996
  1,085
  1,178
  1,275
  1,375
  1,480
  1,589
  1,702
  1,821
  1,944
  2,073
  2,207
  2,348
  2,495
  2,648
  2,808
  2,976
  3,152
Total liabilities, $m
  443
  472
  526
  583
  643
  705
  771
  839
  909
  983
  1,060
  1,139
  1,222
  1,308
  1,397
  1,490
  1,587
  1,687
  1,792
  1,901
  2,014
  2,133
  2,256
  2,385
  2,519
  2,660
  2,807
  2,960
  3,120
  3,288
  3,464
Total equity, $m
  849
  928
  1,035
  1,147
  1,265
  1,388
  1,516
  1,650
  1,789
  1,934
  2,085
  2,241
  2,404
  2,573
  2,749
  2,932
  3,122
  3,319
  3,525
  3,739
  3,963
  4,196
  4,439
  4,692
  4,956
  5,233
  5,521
  5,823
  6,139
  6,469
  6,814
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,292
  1,400
  1,561
  1,730
  1,908
  2,093
  2,287
  2,489
  2,698
  2,917
  3,145
  3,380
  3,626
  3,881
  4,146
  4,422
  4,709
  5,006
  5,317
  5,640
  5,977
  6,329
  6,695
  7,077
  7,475
  7,893
  8,328
  8,783
  9,259
  9,757
  10,278
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.154
  0.170
  0.210
  0.240
  0.260
  0.280
  0.300
  0.320
  0.330
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.661
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  101
  137
  160
  185
  210
  237
  265
  295
  325
  357
  390
  439
  475
  512
  551
  591
  633
  677
  722
  770
  819
  871
  925
  982
  1,040
  1,102
  1,167
  1,234
  1,305
  1,379
  1,456
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  44
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  83
  88
  73
  78
  84
  89
  95
  101
  108
  114
  121
  129
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  210
  221
Funds from operations, $m
  192
  187
  214
  242
  271
  302
  334
  368
  403
  440
  478
  512
  553
  596
  640
  686
  734
  785
  837
  891
  948
  1,007
  1,069
  1,134
  1,201
  1,272
  1,346
  1,423
  1,504
  1,589
  1,677
Change in working capital, $m
  19
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
Cash from operations, $m
  173
  159
  154
  179
  206
  233
  263
  293
  325
  358
  393
  424
  462
  501
  542
  584
  628
  674
  722
  771
  823
  877
  933
  992
  1,053
  1,117
  1,184
  1,254
  1,327
  1,404
  1,484
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -27
  -30
  -34
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -54
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -84
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -199
  -210
New CAPEX, $m
  -54
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -227
  -64
  -68
  -74
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -213
  -223
  -235
  -247
  -261
  -274
  -288
  -303
  -318
  -334
Free cash flow, $m
  -54
  95
  86
  105
  126
  148
  171
  196
  221
  248
  276
  300
  330
  362
  395
  429
  464
  501
  540
  580
  621
  664
  710
  757
  806
  857
  910
  966
  1,025
  1,086
  1,149
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  24
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  147
  153
  160
  168
  176
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  21
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  147
  153
  160
  168
  176
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -36
  147
  140
  162
  186
  210
  237
  264
  292
  322
  353
  380
  413
  448
  484
  522
  561
  602
  644
  689
  735
  783
  833
  885
  940
  997
  1,057
  1,120
  1,185
  1,253
  1,325
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -96
  -100
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -233
  -243
  -253
  -265
  -276
  -289
  -302
  -316
  -330
  -345
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  68
  33
  50
  68
  88
  108
  130
  153
  177
  202
  223
  250
  279
  308
  339
  371
  404
  438
  474
  511
  550
  590
  632
  676
  721
  768
  818
  869
  923
  980
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  65
  30
  44
  56
  68
  78
  88
  96
  102
  106
  106
  107
  106
  104
  100
  94
  88
  81
  73
  65
  57
  49
  41
  34
  28
  22
  18
  13
  10
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Universal Forest Products, Inc., through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets wood and wood-alternative products for home centers and other retailers. The company offers preserved and unpreserved dimensional lumber; outdoor living products, including wood composite decking, and decorative lawn and garden products; and engineered wood components, which include roof and floor trusses, wall panels, engineered floor systems, I-joists, and lumber packages. It also provides roof trusses, lumber cut and shaped, plywood, particle board, and dimensional lumber products for use in the construction of manufactured housings. In addition, the company supplies siding, electrical, and plumbing products to manufactured housing and RV customers; and wood forms and related products to set or form concrete for various structures, including parking garages, stadiums, and bridges. Further, it provides framing services, as well as specialty wood packaging, components, and packing materials for various industries. The company offers its products and services to the retail, industrial, and construction markets in the United States and internationally. Universal Forest Products, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Universal Forest Products (UFPI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.5
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 22.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 12.7%
Total Debt to Equity 15.4%
Interest Coverage 33
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Return On Total Capital 11.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Equity 12.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Asset Turnover 2.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
EBITDA Margin 6.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Operating Margin 5.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Net Profit Margin 3.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Effective Tax Rate 34.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.9%
Payout Ratio 17.8%

UFPI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UFPI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3240 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Universal Forest Products. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Universal Forest Products. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UFPI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for UFPI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Universal Forest Products, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Universal Forest Products.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UFPI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $105 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UFPI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.6% for Universal Forest Products.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Universal Forest Products. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UFPI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UFPI are equal to 9.2%.

Life of production assets of 11.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Universal Forest Products operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UFPI is equal to 14.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $849 million for Universal Forest Products - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 20.499 million for Universal Forest Products is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Universal Forest Products at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ UFPI Board Approves Semiannual Dividend of $0.45 per Share   [Apr-20-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Universal Forest posts 1Q profit   [Apr-18-17 04:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Ranked Growth Stocks to Buy for March 27th   [Mar-27-17 11:46AM  Zacks]
▶ UFPI acquires Indiana manufacturer of hardwood products   [Mar-06-17 01:23PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ UFPI announces increase in semi-annual dividend payment   [Oct-19-16 04:44PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ [$$] Top Quant Fund Takes a Scientific Approach   [Oct-15-16 12:39AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Earth City retail fixture maker idX being sold for $162 million   [Sep-02-16 03:30PM  at bizjournals.com]
Stock chart of UFPI Financial statements of UFPI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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