Intrinsic value of United-Guardian - UG

Previous Close

$16.90

  Intrinsic Value

$208.95

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$16.90

 
Intrinsic value

$208.95

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of UG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -21.43
  50.00
  45.50
  41.45
  37.81
  34.52
  31.57
  28.91
  26.52
  24.37
  22.43
  20.69
  19.12
  17.71
  16.44
  15.29
  14.27
  13.34
  12.50
  11.75
  11.08
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
Revenue, $m
  11
  17
  24
  34
  47
  63
  83
  107
  135
  168
  206
  248
  296
  348
  405
  467
  534
  605
  681
  761
  845
  934
  1,026
  1,123
  1,224
  1,329
  1,439
  1,553
  1,671
  1,794
  1,921
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  6
  9
  12
  17
  23
  30
  39
  49
  61
  75
  90
  108
  127
  148
  170
  194
  220
  248
  277
  308
  340
  374
  409
  446
  484
  524
  565
  608
  653
  699
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
Total operating expenses, $m
  7
  9
  12
  15
  20
  26
  33
  43
  53
  65
  79
  94
  112
  131
  152
  174
  198
  225
  253
  282
  313
  345
  379
  414
  451
  490
  530
  571
  614
  659
  705
Operating income, $m
  3
  7
  12
  18
  26
  37
  49
  64
  82
  103
  127
  154
  184
  217
  254
  293
  335
  380
  428
  479
  533
  589
  648
  709
  773
  840
  909
  982
  1,057
  1,135
  1,216
EBITDA, $m
  3
  8
  12
  19
  27
  37
  50
  65
  83
  105
  129
  156
  187
  220
  257
  297
  340
  386
  435
  486
  540
  597
  657
  719
  784
  852
  922
  996
  1,072
  1,151
  1,233
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
Earnings before tax, $m
  4
  7
  12
  18
  26
  37
  49
  64
  82
  103
  126
  153
  183
  216
  252
  292
  334
  379
  427
  477
  530
  586
  645
  706
  770
  836
  905
  977
  1,052
  1,129
  1,210
Tax expense, $m
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  10
  13
  17
  22
  28
  34
  41
  49
  58
  68
  79
  90
  102
  115
  129
  143
  158
  174
  191
  208
  226
  244
  264
  284
  305
  327
Net income, $m
  3
  5
  9
  13
  19
  27
  36
  47
  60
  75
  92
  112
  134
  158
  184
  213
  244
  276
  311
  348
  387
  428
  471
  515
  562
  610
  661
  713
  768
  824
  883

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  15
  6
  9
  12
  17
  23
  30
  39
  49
  61
  75
  90
  108
  127
  147
  170
  194
  220
  248
  277
  307
  340
  373
  408
  445
  483
  523
  565
  608
  652
  699
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4
  6
  9
  12
  17
  23
  30
  39
  49
  61
  75
  90
  108
  127
  147
  170
  194
  220
  248
  277
  307
  340
  373
  408
  445
  483
  523
  565
  608
  652
  699
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.750
  2.833
  2.667
  2.833
  2.765
  2.739
  2.767
  2.744
  2.755
  2.754
  2.747
  2.756
  2.741
  2.740
  2.755
  2.747
  2.753
  2.750
  2.746
  2.747
  2.752
  2.747
  2.751
  2.752
  2.751
  2.752
  2.751
  2.749
  2.748
  2.752
  2.748
Average production assets, $m
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  43
  49
  55
  62
  69
  77
  85
  93
  102
  111
  121
  131
  141
  152
  163
  175
Working capital, $m
  13
  3
  4
  6
  9
  11
  15
  19
  25
  31
  37
  45
  54
  63
  74
  85
  97
  110
  124
  139
  154
  170
  187
  204
  223
  242
  262
  283
  304
  326
  350
Total debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  18
  22
  26
  31
  36
  41
  48
  54
  61
  68
  76
  84
  92
  101
  110
  120
  130
  140
  151
  162
  174
Total liabilities, $m
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  42
  49
  55
  62
  69
  77
  85
  93
  102
  111
  121
  131
  141
  152
  163
  175
Total equity, $m
  14
  5
  7
  9
  13
  17
  23
  29
  37
  46
  56
  68
  81
  95
  111
  127
  146
  165
  186
  208
  231
  255
  280
  306
  334
  363
  392
  423
  456
  489
  524
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  15
  7
  9
  12
  17
  23
  31
  39
  49
  61
  75
  91
  108
  127
  148
  169
  195
  220
  248
  277
  308
  340
  373
  408
  445
  484
  523
  564
  608
  652
  699
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.110
  0.180
  0.230
  0.250
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  3
  5
  9
  13
  19
  27
  36
  47
  60
  75
  92
  112
  134
  158
  184
  213
  244
  276
  311
  348
  387
  428
  471
  515
  562
  610
  661
  713
  768
  824
  883
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
Funds from operations, $m
  1
  6
  9
  14
  20
  27
  37
  48
  61
  77
  94
  114
  137
  161
  188
  217
  248
  282
  318
  355
  395
  436
  480
  526
  573
  622
  674
  727
  783
  841
  901
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
Cash from operations, $m
  2
  5
  8
  12
  17
  24
  33
  43
  56
  71
  87
  106
  128
  152
  178
  206
  236
  269
  304
  341
  379
  420
  463
  508
  555
  603
  654
  707
  761
  818
  878
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -8
  -8
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
Free cash flow, $m
  2
  4
  7
  11
  16
  22
  31
  40
  52
  66
  82
  101
  121
  144
  169
  197
  226
  258
  291
  327
  365
  405
  446
  490
  535
  583
  632
  683
  737
  792
  850
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  4
  8
  12
  17
  24
  32
  43
  55
  69
  86
  105
  126
  149
  174
  202
  232
  264
  298
  334
  373
  413
  455
  499
  544
  592
  642
  694
  747
  803
  861
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  14
  5
  9
  14
  19
  27
  36
  47
  60
  76
  93
  113
  135
  159
  185
  214
  245
  278
  313
  350
  388
  429
  472
  517
  563
  612
  663
  715
  770
  826
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  13
  5
  8
  11
  15
  20
  24
  30
  35
  40
  44
  48
  51
  53
  54
  54
  53
  51
  48
  44
  40
  36
  31
  26
  22
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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United-Guardian, Inc. researches, develops, manufactures, and markets cosmetic ingredients, personal care products, pharmaceuticals, medical lubricants, health care products, and specialty industrial products in the United States, China, Canada, and internationally. It offers personal care products, including LUBRAJEL line of water-based moisturizing and lubricating gel formulations; KLENSOFT, a surfactant for use in shampoos, shower gels, makeup removers, and other cosmetic formulations; UNITWIX cosmetic additives for use as a thickener for oils and oil-based liquids; ORCHID COMPLEX, an oil-soluble base for skin creams, lotions, cleansers, and other cosmetics; LUBRASLIDE and B-122 lubricants for use in cosmetics, such as pressed powders, eyeliners, and rouges; and LUBRASIL, a special form of LUBRAJEL in which silicone oil is incorporated into a LUBRAJEL base. The company’s medical products comprise LUBRAJEL RR and RC lubricant gels for urinary catheters; LUBRAJEL LC mouth moisturizers for oral use; LUBRAJEL MG to lubricate urinary catheters, prelubricated enema tips, and other medical devices; LUBRAJEL FLUID to lubricate water-soluble products; LUBRAJEL BA for oral care; and LUBRAJEL TF medical lubricants. Its pharmaceutical products consist of RENACIDIN, a prescription drug to prevent and dissolve calcifications in urethral catheters and the urinary bladder; and CLORPACTIN WCS-90, an antimicrobial product to treat infections in the urinary bladder. The company’s industrial products include DESELEX liquid, a sequestering and chelating agent that is a replacement for phosphates in the manufacture of detergents; and THOROCLENS, a chlorine-based cleanser. United-Guardian, Inc. sells its products through marketing partners and distributors. The company was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Hauppauge, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  United-Guardian (UG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.9
Price to Sales 7.1
Price to Book 5.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 38.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 38.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -21.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 19.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.2%
Return On Total Capital 20.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.2%
Return On Equity 20.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.2%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.1%
EBITDA Margin 36.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.2%
Operating Margin 36.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 36.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.2%
Net Profit Margin 27.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.3%
Effective Tax Rate 25%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29%
Payout Ratio 100%

UG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $11 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by United-Guardian. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of United-Guardian. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 50% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for UG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of United-Guardian, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of United-Guardian.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 36.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $3 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for United-Guardian.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for United-Guardian. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UG are equal to 9.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in United-Guardian operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UG is equal to 18.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $14 million for United-Guardian - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 4.445 million for United-Guardian is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of United-Guardian at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ United-Guardian posts 2Q profit   [Aug-09-17 03:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ United-Guardian Announces 20% Increase in Mid-Year Dividend   [May-19-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ United-Guardian posts 1Q profit   [May-10-17 09:24AM  Associated Press]
▶ PSA Group CEO Says They Will Unleash Potential of Opel   [Mar-07-17 03:55AM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ Is Buying Opel a Good Deal for PSA Group?   [Mar-06-17 03:21AM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ JPMorgan's Stubbs Sees Job Concerns in GM's Opel Deal   [Feb-21-17 05:57AM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ 8 High-Yield Stocks With a Negative 1-Year Performance   [Feb-09-17 02:14PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ United-Guardian Announces Year-End Dividend   [09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ United-Guardian Announces Mid-Year Dividend   [09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Who are Procter & Gamble's (PG) main competitors? (PG, REV)   [Jan-26-16 11:06PM  at Investopedia]
▶ United-Guardian Announces Year-End Dividend   [09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ China's Weakness Doesn't Faze European Auto Outlook   [Aug-24  07:00AM  at Morningstar]
▶ Winners and Losers So Far in Europe's Bumper Week For Corporate Earnings   [Jul-29  10:43AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ United-Guardian Reports Year-End Earnings   [Mar-23  09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
Stock chart of UG Financial statements of UG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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