Intrinsic value of Universal Health Realty Income Trust - UHT

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$71.96

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$71.96

 
Intrinsic value

$3.49

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as UHT.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of UHT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.69
  12.50
  11.75
  11.08
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.35
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.13
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
Revenue, $m
  67
  75
  84
  94
  103
  114
  124
  135
  147
  159
  172
  185
  199
  213
  227
  243
  258
  275
  292
  310
  329
  348
  368
  390
  412
  435
  459
  484
  510
  538
  566
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  47
  53
  59
  65
  71
  78
  85
  92
  100
  108
  116
  124
  133
  143
  152
  162
  172
  183
  194
  206
  218
  231
  244
  258
  273
  288
  303
  320
  337
  355
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  50
  47
  53
  59
  65
  71
  78
  85
  92
  100
  108
  116
  124
  133
  143
  152
  162
  172
  183
  194
  206
  218
  231
  244
  258
  273
  288
  303
  320
  337
  355
Operating income, $m
  17
  28
  31
  35
  39
  42
  46
  51
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  90
  96
  103
  109
  116
  123
  130
  137
  145
  154
  162
  171
  180
  190
  201
  211
EBITDA, $m
  40
  54
  60
  67
  74
  81
  89
  97
  105
  114
  123
  132
  142
  152
  163
  174
  185
  197
  209
  222
  235
  249
  264
  279
  295
  311
  328
  346
  365
  385
  405
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  36
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
Earnings before tax, $m
  17
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  45
  48
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  112
  118
Tax expense, $m
  0
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
Net income, $m
  17
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  525
  584
  653
  725
  801
  881
  964
  1,050
  1,141
  1,234
  1,332
  1,433
  1,539
  1,648
  1,762
  1,880
  2,004
  2,132
  2,265
  2,404
  2,548
  2,699
  2,856
  3,020
  3,191
  3,369
  3,556
  3,751
  3,955
  4,168
  4,391
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  521
  584
  653
  725
  801
  881
  964
  1,050
  1,141
  1,234
  1,332
  1,433
  1,539
  1,648
  1,762
  1,880
  2,004
  2,132
  2,265
  2,404
  2,548
  2,699
  2,856
  3,020
  3,191
  3,369
  3,556
  3,751
  3,955
  4,168
  4,391
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.129
  0.128
  0.129
  0.130
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
Average production assets, $m
  441
  496
  554
  616
  680
  748
  818
  892
  968
  1,048
  1,131
  1,217
  1,307
  1,400
  1,496
  1,597
  1,701
  1,810
  1,923
  2,041
  2,163
  2,291
  2,425
  2,564
  2,709
  2,861
  3,019
  3,185
  3,358
  3,539
  3,729
Working capital, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
Total debt, $m
  316
  357
  401
  447
  496
  547
  600
  655
  713
  773
  836
  901
  968
  1,039
  1,112
  1,187
  1,266
  1,348
  1,434
  1,523
  1,615
  1,712
  1,813
  1,918
  2,027
  2,142
  2,261
  2,386
  2,517
  2,654
  2,797
Total liabilities, $m
  333
  375
  419
  465
  514
  565
  618
  673
  731
  791
  854
  919
  986
  1,057
  1,130
  1,205
  1,284
  1,366
  1,452
  1,541
  1,633
  1,730
  1,831
  1,936
  2,045
  2,160
  2,279
  2,404
  2,535
  2,672
  2,815
Total equity, $m
  191
  210
  234
  260
  288
  316
  346
  377
  409
  443
  478
  515
  552
  592
  633
  675
  719
  765
  813
  863
  915
  969
  1,025
  1,084
  1,145
  1,210
  1,277
  1,347
  1,420
  1,496
  1,576
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  524
  585
  653
  725
  802
  881
  964
  1,050
  1,140
  1,234
  1,332
  1,434
  1,538
  1,649
  1,763
  1,880
  2,003
  2,131
  2,265
  2,404
  2,548
  2,699
  2,856
  3,020
  3,190
  3,370
  3,556
  3,751
  3,955
  4,168
  4,391
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.654
  1.700
  1.710
  1.720
  1.720
  1.730
  1.730
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.750
  1.750
  1.750
  1.760
  1.760
  1.760
  1.760
  1.760
  1.760
  1.760
  1.770
  1.770
  1.770
  1.770
  1.770
  1.770
  1.770
  1.770
  1.770
  1.770
  1.770
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  17
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  43
  46
  50
  55
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  89
  94
  100
  106
  113
  119
  126
  134
  141
  149
  157
  166
  175
  184
  194
Funds from operations, $m
  41
  38
  43
  47
  52
  57
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  173
  183
  193
  204
  216
  227
  240
  253
  266
  281
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  41
  69
  43
  48
  53
  58
  63
  69
  74
  80
  87
  93
  100
  107
  114
  122
  130
  138
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
  195
  206
  217
  229
  241
  254
  268
  282
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -184
New CAPEX, $m
  -72
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -158
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -189
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -75
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -110
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -198
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -241
  -252
  -265
  -279
  -293
  -307
  -323
  -339
  -356
  -373
Free cash flow, $m
  -34
  -9
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -91
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  56
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  114
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  13
  0
  22
  22
  22
  23
  23
  23
  23
  23
  23
  23
  23
  23
  23
  23
  23
  23
  24
  24
  24
  24
  24
  25
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  69
  41
  66
  68
  71
  74
  76
  79
  81
  83
  86
  88
  91
  93
  96
  99
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  121
  125
  130
  135
  139
  146
  151
  158
  165
  171
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  35
  31
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  4
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  9.70
  10.19
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.38
  29.79
  31.28
  32.85
  34.49
  36.21
  38.03
  39.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  98.0
  96.3
  94.7
  93.3
  92.0
  90.8
  89.7
  88.8
  87.9
  87.0
  86.3
  85.6
  84.9
  84.3
  83.8
  83.3
  82.8
  82.3
  81.9
  81.4
  81.0
  80.7
  80.3
  80.0
  79.6
  79.3
  79.0
  78.7
  78.4

Universal Health Realty Income Trust is a publicly owned real estate investment trust. The firm invests in the real estate markets of United States. It invests in the health care and human service related facilities including acute care hospitals, behavioral healthcare facilities, rehabilitation hospitals, sub-acute facilities, surgery centers, childcare centers, and medical office buildings. Universal Health Realty Income Trust was founded in 1986, and is based in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Universal Health Realty Income Trust (UHT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 57.6
Price to Sales 14.6
Price to Book 5.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 23.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -31.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 227.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 55.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 165.4%
Total Debt to Equity 165.4%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Return On Total Capital 3.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Return On Equity 8.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 73.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.2%
EBITDA Margin 73.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 97.5%
Operating Margin 25.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 25.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.8%
Net Profit Margin 25.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 205.9%

UHT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UHT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $67 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Universal Health Realty Income Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Universal Health Realty Income Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UHT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.7%, whose default value for UHT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Universal Health Realty Income Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Universal Health Realty Income Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UHT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 62.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UHT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Universal Health Realty Income Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Universal Health Realty Income Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UHT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UHT are equal to 658.2%.

Life of production assets of 19.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Universal Health Realty Income Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UHT is equal to -6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $191 million for Universal Health Realty Income Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 13.668 million for Universal Health Realty Income Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Universal Health Realty Income Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Controversial psychiatric chain still seeking to build Wilsonville hospital   [May-03-17 05:30PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Universal Health Realty reports 1Q results   [Apr-26-17 06:52PM  Associated Press]
▶ Universal Health Services posts 1Q profit   [05:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ Universal Health Services CEO on GOP's Health Care Loss   [Mar-30-17 07:18PM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ Which Hospital Stocks Are Expected to Benefit Most?   [Mar-28-17 03:05PM  Market Realist]
▶ Universal Health Realty Income Trust Announces Dividend   [Mar-09-17 04:42PM  PR Newswire]
▶ UHS completes $464M U.K. deal   [Dec-29-16 10:40AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ The Hot Stock: Universal Health Services Jumps 6.9%   [Dec-15-16 04:34PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ [$$] Universal Health Denies Report of Filling Beds Solely for Financial Gain   [Dec-08-16 11:34AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ The Biggest Loser: Universal Health Services Tumbles 12%   [Dec-07-16 04:11PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Tiger Cub Lee Ainslies Top Stock Picks   [09:21AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Mitel Networks Corp (MITL): 73% Surge in Hedge Fund Ownership   [Nov-28-16 11:26PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Post Trump's election victory, hospital stocks take a hit   [Nov-09-16 01:20PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Boyle lands health care giant for Brentwood project   [Oct-18-16 03:02PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ 5 Best Hospital Stocks to Buy Right Now   [Oct-14-16 04:32PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Universal Health Realty Income Trust Announces Dividend   [Sep-08-16 04:01PM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] Universal Health Revenue Rises But Misses Expectations   [Jul-26-16 05:51PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Stock chart of UHT Financial statements of UHT Annual reports of UHT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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