Intrinsic value of United Insurance Holdings - UIHC

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$16.61

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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$16.61

 
Intrinsic value

$296.64

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as UIHC.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of UIHC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  36.03
  31.00
  28.40
  26.06
  23.95
  22.06
  20.35
  18.82
  17.44
  16.19
  15.07
  14.07
  13.16
  12.34
  11.61
  10.95
  10.35
  9.82
  9.34
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.84
  7.56
  7.30
  7.07
  6.87
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
Revenue, $m
  0
  638
  819
  1,033
  1,280
  1,562
  1,880
  2,234
  2,624
  3,048
  3,508
  4,001
  4,528
  5,087
  5,677
  6,299
  6,951
  7,634
  8,346
  9,089
  9,863
  10,668
  11,505
  12,374
  13,278
  14,218
  15,194
  16,209
  17,264
  18,362
  19,505
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  563
  722
  910
  1,128
  1,376
  1,656
  1,968
  2,311
  2,684
  3,089
  3,522
  3,985
  4,477
  4,997
  5,544
  6,118
  6,718
  7,346
  8,000
  8,681
  9,389
  10,126
  10,891
  11,687
  12,513
  13,373
  14,266
  15,195
  16,161
  17,167
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  480
  563
  722
  910
  1,128
  1,376
  1,656
  1,968
  2,311
  2,684
  3,089
  3,522
  3,985
  4,477
  4,997
  5,544
  6,118
  6,718
  7,346
  8,000
  8,681
  9,389
  10,126
  10,891
  11,687
  12,513
  13,373
  14,266
  15,195
  16,161
  17,167
Operating income, $m
  7
  75
  97
  122
  152
  186
  224
  266
  313
  364
  419
  480
  543
  610
  681
  755
  833
  915
  1,000
  1,090
  1,182
  1,279
  1,379
  1,483
  1,592
  1,704
  1,821
  1,943
  2,070
  2,201
  2,338
EBITDA, $m
  19
  78
  101
  127
  157
  192
  231
  274
  322
  375
  431
  492
  556
  625
  698
  774
  854
  938
  1,025
  1,117
  1,212
  1,311
  1,413
  1,520
  1,631
  1,747
  1,867
  1,991
  2,121
  2,256
  2,396
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  2
  10
  20
  31
  45
  60
  77
  96
  118
  141
  165
  192
  221
  251
  283
  317
  352
  389
  427
  468
  510
  553
  598
  646
  694
  745
  798
  853
  910
  970
Earnings before tax, $m
  7
  73
  87
  102
  121
  141
  164
  189
  217
  246
  279
  314
  351
  389
  430
  472
  517
  563
  612
  662
  715
  769
  826
  885
  946
  1,010
  1,076
  1,145
  1,216
  1,291
  1,368
Tax expense, $m
  1
  20
  23
  28
  33
  38
  44
  51
  58
  67
  75
  85
  95
  105
  116
  127
  140
  152
  165
  179
  193
  208
  223
  239
  255
  273
  291
  309
  328
  349
  369
Net income, $m
  6
  53
  63
  75
  88
  103
  120
  138
  158
  180
  203
  229
  256
  284
  314
  345
  377
  411
  447
  483
  522
  562
  603
  646
  691
  737
  786
  836
  888
  942
  999

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,000
  1,302
  1,672
  2,107
  2,612
  3,188
  3,837
  4,559
  5,354
  6,221
  7,159
  8,166
  9,241
  10,381
  11,586
  12,855
  14,186
  15,579
  17,033
  18,549
  20,128
  21,771
  23,479
  25,254
  27,099
  29,016
  31,008
  33,079
  35,233
  37,474
  39,807
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,000
  1,302
  1,672
  2,107
  2,612
  3,188
  3,837
  4,559
  5,354
  6,221
  7,159
  8,166
  9,241
  10,381
  11,586
  12,855
  14,186
  15,579
  17,033
  18,549
  20,128
  21,771
  23,479
  25,254
  27,099
  29,016
  31,008
  33,079
  35,233
  37,474
  39,807
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
Average production assets, $m
  18
  11
  14
  18
  22
  27
  32
  38
  45
  52
  60
  68
  77
  86
  97
  107
  118
  130
  142
  155
  168
  181
  196
  210
  226
  242
  258
  276
  293
  312
  332
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  54
  288
  568
  898
  1,281
  1,718
  2,210
  2,757
  3,360
  4,017
  4,728
  5,491
  6,305
  7,170
  8,084
  9,045
  10,054
  11,110
  12,212
  13,361
  14,558
  15,803
  17,098
  18,444
  19,842
  21,295
  22,805
  24,375
  26,008
  27,707
  29,475
Total liabilities, $m
  758
  987
  1,267
  1,597
  1,980
  2,417
  2,909
  3,456
  4,059
  4,716
  5,427
  6,190
  7,004
  7,869
  8,783
  9,744
  10,753
  11,809
  12,911
  14,060
  15,257
  16,502
  17,797
  19,143
  20,541
  21,994
  23,504
  25,074
  26,707
  28,406
  30,174
Total equity, $m
  241
  315
  405
  510
  632
  772
  929
  1,103
  1,296
  1,506
  1,733
  1,976
  2,236
  2,512
  2,804
  3,111
  3,433
  3,770
  4,122
  4,489
  4,871
  5,269
  5,682
  6,111
  6,558
  7,022
  7,504
  8,005
  8,526
  9,069
  9,633
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  999
  1,302
  1,672
  2,107
  2,612
  3,189
  3,838
  4,559
  5,355
  6,222
  7,160
  8,166
  9,240
  10,381
  11,587
  12,855
  14,186
  15,579
  17,033
  18,549
  20,128
  21,771
  23,479
  25,254
  27,099
  29,016
  31,008
  33,079
  35,233
  37,475
  39,807
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.224
  0.910
  1.400
  1.760
  2.030
  2.230
  2.380
  2.500
  2.590
  2.670
  2.730
  2.780
  2.820
  2.850
  2.880
  2.910
  2.930
  2.950
  2.960
  2.980
  2.990
  3.000
  3.010
  3.020
  3.030
  3.030
  3.040
  3.040
  3.050
  3.060
  3.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.241
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  6
  53
  63
  75
  88
  103
  120
  138
  158
  180
  203
  229
  256
  284
  314
  345
  377
  411
  447
  483
  522
  562
  603
  646
  691
  737
  786
  836
  888
  942
  999
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  12
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
Funds from operations, $m
  107
  57
  67
  79
  93
  109
  127
  146
  167
  190
  215
  241
  269
  299
  331
  363
  398
  434
  471
  510
  551
  593
  637
  683
  730
  780
  831
  884
  939
  997
  1,057
Change in working capital, $m
  41
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  66
  48
  67
  79
  93
  109
  127
  146
  167
  190
  215
  241
  269
  299
  331
  363
  398
  434
  471
  510
  551
  593
  637
  683
  730
  780
  831
  884
  939
  997
  1,057
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -50
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
Free cash flow, $m
  16
  44
  62
  73
  86
  100
  117
  134
  154
  175
  198
  222
  249
  276
  305
  336
  368
  402
  437
  473
  511
  550
  591
  634
  678
  724
  772
  822
  873
  927
  983
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  56
  234
  280
  330
  383
  437
  492
  547
  603
  657
  711
  763
  815
  865
  914
  962
  1,009
  1,056
  1,102
  1,149
  1,197
  1,245
  1,295
  1,346
  1,398
  1,453
  1,510
  1,570
  1,633
  1,699
  1,768
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  55
  234
  280
  330
  383
  437
  492
  547
  603
  657
  711
  763
  815
  865
  914
  962
  1,009
  1,056
  1,102
  1,149
  1,197
  1,245
  1,295
  1,346
  1,398
  1,453
  1,510
  1,570
  1,633
  1,699
  1,768
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  71
  278
  342
  403
  469
  537
  608
  682
  757
  833
  909
  986
  1,063
  1,141
  1,219
  1,297
  1,377
  1,457
  1,539
  1,622
  1,708
  1,795
  1,886
  1,979
  2,076
  2,177
  2,282
  2,392
  2,506
  2,626
  2,751
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -2
  -74
  -89
  -105
  -122
  -139
  -157
  -175
  -192
  -210
  -227
  -244
  -260
  -276
  -292
  -307
  -322
  -337
  -352
  -367
  -382
  -398
  -413
  -430
  -446
  -464
  -482
  -501
  -521
  -542
  -565
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  204
  253
  298
  346
  398
  451
  507
  564
  623
  682
  742
  803
  865
  927
  991
  1,055
  1,120
  1,187
  1,255
  1,326
  1,398
  1,473
  1,550
  1,630
  1,713
  1,800
  1,890
  1,985
  2,083
  2,187
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  196
  232
  259
  285
  308
  328
  343
  353
  358
  358
  352
  343
  329
  311
  291
  268
  244
  219
  193
  168
  145
  122
  102
  83
  67
  53
  41
  31
  23
  16
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

United Insurance Holdings Corp. operates as a property and casualty insurance holding company that sources, writes, and services residential and commercial property and casualty insurance policies in the United States. It offers single-family homeowners, dwelling fire, renters, condominium unit owners, and commercial residential insurance policies, as well as federal flood, equipment breakdown, and identity theft insurance policies. The company markets and distributes its products through a network of independent agencies in Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Louisiana, Massachusetts, New Jersey, North Carolina, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Texas. United Insurance Holdings Corp. is based in St. Petersburg, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  United Insurance Holdings (UIHC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 59.9
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 36%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -72.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 22.4%
Total Debt to Equity 22.4%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Total Capital 2.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Return On Equity 2.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 3.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Operating Margin 1.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Net Profit Margin 1.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Effective Tax Rate 14.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.6%
Payout Ratio 83.3%

UIHC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UIHC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $487 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by United Insurance Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of United Insurance Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UIHC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 31% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for UIHC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of United Insurance Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of United Insurance Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UIHC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UIHC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for United Insurance Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for United Insurance Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UIHC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UIHC are equal to 1.7%.

Life of production assets of 5.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in United Insurance Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UIHC is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $241 million for United Insurance Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 21.749 million for United Insurance Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of United Insurance Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

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Stock chart of UIHC Financial statements of UIHC Annual reports of UIHC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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