Intrinsic value of Ulta Beauty - ULTA

Previous Close

$302.40

  Intrinsic Value

premium content

  Rating & Target

premium content

  Value-price divergence*

premium content

Previous close

$302.40

 
Intrinsic value

$321.27

 
Up/down potential

+6%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

Premium access subscription - $499/yr

please register and log in before paying

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ULTA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 18.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  23.73
  24.70
  22.73
  20.96
  19.36
  17.93
  16.63
  15.47
  14.42
  13.48
  12.63
  11.87
  11.18
  10.56
  10.01
  9.51
  9.06
  8.65
  8.29
  7.96
  7.66
  7.40
  7.16
  6.94
  6.75
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.15
  6.03
  5.93
Revenue, $m
  4,855
  6,054
  7,430
  8,987
  10,728
  12,650
  14,755
  17,037
  19,494
  22,122
  24,917
  27,874
  30,991
  34,265
  37,694
  41,277
  45,015
  48,909
  52,961
  57,176
  61,556
  66,108
  70,838
  75,755
  80,865
  86,179
  91,707
  97,459
  103,449
  109,688
  116,190
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  5,086
  6,241
  7,549
  9,011
  10,626
  12,394
  14,311
  16,375
  18,583
  20,930
  23,414
  26,032
  28,782
  31,663
  34,673
  37,813
  41,084
  44,488
  48,027
  51,707
  55,531
  59,504
  63,634
  67,927
  72,390
  77,034
  81,866
  86,897
  92,138
  97,599
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  128
  131
  135
  138
  141
  145
  149
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  177
  181
  186
  190
  195
  200
  205
  210
  215
  221
  226
  232
  238
  243
  250
  256
  262
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,200
  5,214
  6,372
  7,684
  9,149
  10,767
  12,539
  14,460
  16,527
  18,739
  21,090
  23,578
  26,200
  28,954
  31,840
  34,854
  37,999
  41,274
  44,683
  48,227
  51,912
  55,741
  59,719
  63,855
  68,153
  72,622
  77,272
  82,109
  87,147
  92,394
  97,861
Operating income, $m
  655
  841
  1,058
  1,303
  1,578
  1,883
  2,216
  2,577
  2,967
  3,383
  3,827
  4,296
  4,790
  5,310
  5,854
  6,423
  7,017
  7,635
  8,279
  8,948
  9,644
  10,367
  11,119
  11,900
  12,712
  13,557
  14,436
  15,350
  16,302
  17,294
  18,328
EBITDA, $m
  865
  1,072
  1,341
  1,647
  1,988
  2,366
  2,779
  3,228
  3,711
  4,228
  4,778
  5,361
  5,974
  6,619
  7,294
  8,000
  8,736
  9,504
  10,302
  11,132
  11,996
  12,893
  13,825
  14,794
  15,801
  16,849
  17,939
  19,073
  20,254
  21,484
  22,767
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  9
  19
  30
  42
  56
  72
  88
  106
  125
  145
  166
  189
  212
  237
  263
  290
  318
  348
  378
  410
  443
  477
  512
  549
  588
  628
  669
  712
  757
Earnings before tax, $m
  656
  841
  1,049
  1,285
  1,549
  1,840
  2,159
  2,506
  2,879
  3,278
  3,702
  4,151
  4,624
  5,121
  5,642
  6,186
  6,754
  7,345
  7,961
  8,601
  9,266
  9,958
  10,676
  11,423
  12,200
  13,008
  13,848
  14,723
  15,633
  16,582
  17,571
Tax expense, $m
  246
  227
  283
  347
  418
  497
  583
  677
  777
  885
  1,000
  1,121
  1,249
  1,383
  1,523
  1,670
  1,824
  1,983
  2,149
  2,322
  2,502
  2,689
  2,883
  3,084
  3,294
  3,512
  3,739
  3,975
  4,221
  4,477
  4,744
Net income, $m
  410
  614
  766
  938
  1,130
  1,343
  1,576
  1,829
  2,101
  2,393
  2,702
  3,030
  3,376
  3,738
  4,119
  4,516
  4,930
  5,362
  5,811
  6,279
  6,764
  7,269
  7,794
  8,339
  8,906
  9,496
  10,109
  10,747
  11,412
  12,105
  12,827

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  415
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,552
  2,665
  3,270
  3,956
  4,722
  5,568
  6,494
  7,499
  8,580
  9,737
  10,967
  12,268
  13,640
  15,081
  16,591
  18,168
  19,813
  21,527
  23,311
  25,165
  27,093
  29,097
  31,179
  33,343
  35,592
  37,931
  40,364
  42,896
  45,532
  48,278
  51,140
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,137
  2,665
  3,270
  3,956
  4,722
  5,568
  6,494
  7,499
  8,580
  9,737
  10,967
  12,268
  13,640
  15,081
  16,591
  18,168
  19,813
  21,527
  23,311
  25,165
  27,093
  29,097
  31,179
  33,343
  35,592
  37,931
  40,364
  42,896
  45,532
  48,278
  51,140
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
  2.272
Average production assets, $m
  926
  1,156
  1,419
  1,717
  2,049
  2,416
  2,818
  3,254
  3,723
  4,225
  4,759
  5,324
  5,919
  6,545
  7,199
  7,884
  8,598
  9,342
  10,116
  10,921
  11,757
  12,627
  13,530
  14,469
  15,445
  16,460
  17,516
  18,615
  19,759
  20,950
  22,192
Working capital, $m
  1,007
  739
  906
  1,096
  1,309
  1,543
  1,800
  2,079
  2,378
  2,699
  3,040
  3,401
  3,781
  4,180
  4,599
  5,036
  5,492
  5,967
  6,461
  6,975
  7,510
  8,065
  8,642
  9,242
  9,866
  10,514
  11,188
  11,890
  12,621
  13,382
  14,175
Total debt, $m
  0
  248
  532
  853
  1,212
  1,609
  2,044
  2,515
  3,022
  3,565
  4,141
  4,752
  5,395
  6,071
  6,779
  7,519
  8,290
  9,094
  9,931
  10,801
  11,705
  12,644
  13,621
  14,636
  15,691
  16,788
  17,929
  19,116
  20,352
  21,640
  22,983
Total liabilities, $m
  1,002
  1,250
  1,534
  1,855
  2,214
  2,611
  3,046
  3,517
  4,024
  4,567
  5,143
  5,754
  6,397
  7,073
  7,781
  8,521
  9,292
  10,096
  10,933
  11,803
  12,707
  13,646
  14,623
  15,638
  16,693
  17,790
  18,931
  20,118
  21,354
  22,642
  23,985
Total equity, $m
  1,550
  1,415
  1,737
  2,101
  2,507
  2,957
  3,448
  3,982
  4,556
  5,170
  5,823
  6,515
  7,243
  8,008
  8,810
  9,647
  10,521
  11,431
  12,378
  13,363
  14,387
  15,450
  16,556
  17,705
  18,899
  20,141
  21,433
  22,778
  24,177
  25,636
  27,155
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,552
  2,665
  3,271
  3,956
  4,721
  5,568
  6,494
  7,499
  8,580
  9,737
  10,966
  12,269
  13,640
  15,081
  16,591
  18,168
  19,813
  21,527
  23,311
  25,166
  27,094
  29,096
  31,179
  33,343
  35,592
  37,931
  40,364
  42,896
  45,531
  48,278
  51,140
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.180
  0.310
  0.410
  0.480
  0.540
  0.590
  0.630
  0.660
  0.690
  0.710
  0.730
  0.740
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  410
  614
  766
  938
  1,130
  1,343
  1,576
  1,829
  2,101
  2,393
  2,702
  3,030
  3,376
  3,738
  4,119
  4,516
  4,930
  5,362
  5,811
  6,279
  6,764
  7,269
  7,794
  8,339
  8,906
  9,496
  10,109
  10,747
  11,412
  12,105
  12,827
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  210
  231
  284
  343
  410
  483
  564
  651
  745
  845
  952
  1,065
  1,184
  1,309
  1,440
  1,577
  1,720
  1,868
  2,023
  2,184
  2,351
  2,525
  2,706
  2,894
  3,089
  3,292
  3,503
  3,723
  3,952
  4,190
  4,438
Funds from operations, $m
  603
  845
  1,049
  1,281
  1,540
  1,827
  2,140
  2,480
  2,846
  3,238
  3,654
  4,095
  4,559
  5,047
  5,558
  6,093
  6,650
  7,230
  7,834
  8,463
  9,116
  9,794
  10,500
  11,233
  11,995
  12,788
  13,612
  14,470
  15,364
  16,295
  17,265
Change in working capital, $m
  -32
  146
  168
  190
  212
  235
  257
  278
  300
  321
  341
  361
  380
  399
  418
  437
  456
  475
  494
  514
  534
  555
  577
  600
  623
  648
  674
  702
  731
  761
  793
Cash from operations, $m
  635
  777
  882
  1,091
  1,328
  1,592
  1,883
  2,202
  2,546
  2,917
  3,313
  3,734
  4,179
  4,648
  5,140
  5,655
  6,194
  6,755
  7,340
  7,948
  8,581
  9,239
  9,923
  10,633
  11,372
  12,139
  12,938
  13,769
  14,633
  15,534
  16,472
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -185
  -231
  -284
  -343
  -410
  -483
  -564
  -651
  -745
  -845
  -952
  -1,065
  -1,184
  -1,309
  -1,440
  -1,577
  -1,720
  -1,868
  -2,023
  -2,184
  -2,351
  -2,525
  -2,706
  -2,894
  -3,089
  -3,292
  -3,503
  -3,723
  -3,952
  -4,190
New CAPEX, $m
  -374
  -230
  -263
  -297
  -332
  -367
  -402
  -436
  -469
  -502
  -534
  -565
  -595
  -625
  -655
  -684
  -714
  -744
  -774
  -805
  -837
  -869
  -904
  -939
  -976
  -1,015
  -1,056
  -1,099
  -1,144
  -1,192
  -1,242
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -274
  -415
  -494
  -581
  -675
  -777
  -885
  -1,000
  -1,120
  -1,247
  -1,379
  -1,517
  -1,660
  -1,809
  -1,964
  -2,124
  -2,291
  -2,464
  -2,642
  -2,828
  -3,021
  -3,220
  -3,429
  -3,645
  -3,870
  -4,104
  -4,348
  -4,602
  -4,867
  -5,144
  -5,432
Free cash flow, $m
  361
  361
  388
  510
  652
  815
  998
  1,202
  1,426
  1,671
  1,934
  2,217
  2,519
  2,839
  3,176
  3,531
  3,903
  4,292
  4,698
  5,120
  5,561
  6,018
  6,494
  6,988
  7,502
  8,035
  8,590
  9,167
  9,766
  10,390
  11,040
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  248
  284
  321
  359
  397
  434
  471
  507
  542
  577
  610
  643
  676
  708
  740
  772
  804
  837
  870
  904
  940
  976
  1,015
  1,055
  1,097
  1,141
  1,187
  1,236
  1,288
  1,342
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -331
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -322
  248
  284
  321
  359
  397
  434
  471
  507
  542
  577
  610
  643
  676
  708
  740
  772
  804
  837
  870
  904
  940
  976
  1,015
  1,055
  1,097
  1,141
  1,187
  1,236
  1,288
  1,342
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  39
  609
  672
  831
  1,011
  1,212
  1,433
  1,673
  1,933
  2,213
  2,511
  2,828
  3,162
  3,515
  3,884
  4,271
  4,675
  5,096
  5,534
  5,990
  6,465
  6,958
  7,470
  8,003
  8,557
  9,132
  9,731
  10,354
  11,003
  11,678
  12,382
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -107
  -280
  -322
  -364
  -407
  -449
  -492
  -533
  -574
  -614
  -653
  -691
  -728
  -765
  -801
  -838
  -874
  -910
  -947
  -985
  -1,024
  -1,064
  -1,106
  -1,149
  -1,194
  -1,242
  -1,292
  -1,344
  -1,400
  -1,458
  -1,520
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  415
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  744
  350
  467
  605
  762
  941
  1,140
  1,359
  1,599
  1,858
  2,137
  2,434
  2,749
  3,083
  3,433
  3,801
  4,186
  4,587
  5,005
  5,441
  5,894
  6,365
  6,854
  7,362
  7,890
  8,439
  9,010
  9,603
  10,220
  10,862
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  713
  320
  407
  498
  591
  683
  770
  850
  918
  974
  1,015
  1,039
  1,045
  1,035
  1,008
  966
  911
  845
  771
  691
  610
  528
  449
  375
  307
  246
  193
  149
  112
  82
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer in the United States. The company’s stores provide cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, skincare, bath and body products, and salon styling tools. It also offers cosmetics, which includes products for the face, eyes, cheeks, lips, nails, and brushes; haircare products, such as shampoos, conditioners, styling products, and hair accessories and brushes; and salon styling tools comprising hair dryers, curling irons, and flat irons. In addition, the company provides skincare, and bath and body products consisting of products for face, hands, and body; fragrances; nail polish and nail care products; and men’s skincare, haircare, and fragrance products. Further, it offers private label products consisting of Ulta branded cosmetics, skincare, bath and body products, and haircare products; and other health and beauty products. As of January 20, 2017, the company operated 949 retail stores in 48 states and the District of Columbia. Its full-service salon offers hair, skin, and brow services; and provides products through its Website, ulta.com. The company was formerly known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. and changed its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Ulta Beauty, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ulta Beauty (ULTA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 45.8
Price to Sales 3.9
Price to Book 12.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 29.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 72
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 23.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 25.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 17.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Return On Total Capital 27.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.7%
Return On Equity 27.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.7%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.4%
EBITDA Margin 17.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.2%
Operating Margin 13.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Net Profit Margin 8.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Effective Tax Rate 37.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

ULTA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ULTA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4855 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ulta Beauty. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Ulta Beauty. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ULTA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 24.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ULTA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ulta Beauty, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ulta Beauty.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ULTA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $125 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ULTA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Ulta Beauty.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ulta Beauty. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ULTA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ULTA are equal to 19.1%.

Life of production assets of 4.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ulta Beauty operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ULTA is equal to 12.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1550 million for Ulta Beauty - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 59.992 million for Ulta Beauty is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ulta Beauty at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $18.1 billion.


Premium access subscription - $499/yr

please register and log in before paying
RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
SBH Sally Beauty H 17.72 prem.  prem.
PERF Perfumania Hol 1.35 prem.  prem.
ELF e.l.f. Beauty 25.33 prem.  prem.
EL Estee Lauder C 93.70 prem.  prem.
RGS Regis 9.28 prem.  prem.

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Industry News And Stocks To Watch   [May-27-17 07:55PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Earnings Calendar, Analyst Estimates And Stocks To Watch   [07:48PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ This Retailer Is Proving That Stores Still Work   [May-26-17 05:51PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Bet on beauty stocks?   [05:21PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Which Stocks Are Showing Rising Relative Strength?   [04:09PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Retail And E-Commerce News And Stocks To Watch   [04:01PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Four Takeaways From Ulta Beauty's Beat-And-Raise Quarter   [04:00PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ This is a stock picker's market   [04:00PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Big movers in the Blitz   [01:20PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Stock Indexes Barely Budge In Early Trade; Ulta Leaps Higher   [10:23AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Is the worst over for retail?   [09:49AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Markets still on track for positive week   [09:38AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Why Ulta Beauty Shares Are Making a Run   [08:55AM  24/7 Wall St.]
▶ Stock Futures Mixed After Positive Q1 GDP Data   [08:50AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [08:29AM  Briefing.com]
▶ Ulta Beauty, PVH Corp. Thrive Amidst Ecommerce Invasion   [May-25-17 07:02PM  Investopedia]
▶ Ulta beats Street 1Q forecasts   [04:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ulta Beauty beats on bottom line   [04:06PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Why Ulta Beauty Shares Fell Out Of Buy Range Ahead Of Earnings   [04:17PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Ulta shares slide after analyst downgrade   [03:03PM  MarketWatch]
▶ S&P 500 Tests 2400; Here's Why Fed Minutes Could Move Market   [01:26PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Consumer Sector Pre-Earnings Coverage for May 2226, 2017   [May-22-17 02:02PM  Market Realist]
▶ 3 Things to Watch in the Stock Market This Week   [May-21-17 09:51AM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ulta Beauty, Inc. : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 05:24PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ulta Beauty Shares Break Out As Estee Lauder Pops On Earnings   [May-03-17 04:26PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Piper Jaffray Starts Coverage on Beauty Companies   [May-01-17 11:04PM  Investopedia]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ulta Beauty, Inc. : April 27, 2017   [Apr-27-17 04:19PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Want Big Potential Gains? Check This Key Trait Shared By Most Winning Stocks   [Apr-21-17 11:15AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ulta Beauty, Inc. : April 17, 2017   [Apr-17-17 01:10PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Tesla Hits New High, Tops GM's Market Cap; Amazon, Ulta Beauty Touted   [Apr-10-17 04:21PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ulta Beauty, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:37PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Riding Amazon's record run   [Apr-04-17 02:52PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ How this beauty stock could climb to $100   [04:29PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ 3 Stocks Are Up 1,000%   [Mar-24-17 11:31AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Cramer: Five Below Will Become One of Retail's Go-To Names   [Mar-23-17 07:01PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ 5 Things Ulta Salon Management Wants You to Know   [Mar-21-17 09:43PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of ULTA Financial statements of ULTA Annual reports of ULTA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

FREE DOWNLOAD
Follow us on:   twitter   twitter   twitter   twitter

VALUATION THEORY       ASSET ALLOCATION

About X-FIN       Site news       Privacy policy       Terms of use       FAQ

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2017. All rigths reserved.