Intrinsic value of Ultimate Software Group - ULTI

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$223.20

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$223.20

 
Intrinsic value

$81.51

 
Up/down potential

-63%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ULTI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  26.38
  21.90
  20.21
  18.69
  17.32
  16.09
  14.98
  13.98
  13.08
  12.27
  11.55
  10.89
  10.30
  9.77
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.54
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
  5.80
Revenue, $m
  781
  952
  1,144
  1,358
  1,594
  1,850
  2,127
  2,424
  2,742
  3,078
  3,434
  3,808
  4,200
  4,610
  5,039
  5,486
  5,951
  6,435
  6,938
  7,461
  8,004
  8,569
  9,156
  9,766
  10,401
  11,061
  11,748
  12,464
  13,209
  13,987
  14,797
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  886
  1,064
  1,262
  1,480
  1,718
  1,974
  2,250
  2,544
  2,856
  3,185
  3,528
  3,891
  4,272
  4,669
  5,083
  5,514
  5,962
  6,428
  6,913
  7,416
  7,939
  8,483
  9,048
  9,636
  10,248
  10,885
  11,548
  12,239
  12,959
  13,710
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  740
  886
  1,064
  1,262
  1,480
  1,718
  1,974
  2,250
  2,544
  2,856
  3,185
  3,528
  3,891
  4,272
  4,669
  5,083
  5,514
  5,962
  6,428
  6,913
  7,416
  7,939
  8,483
  9,048
  9,636
  10,248
  10,885
  11,548
  12,239
  12,959
  13,710
Operating income, $m
  42
  66
  81
  96
  114
  132
  153
  175
  198
  223
  249
  280
  309
  339
  370
  403
  437
  473
  510
  548
  588
  630
  673
  718
  764
  813
  863
  916
  971
  1,028
  1,087
EBITDA, $m
  69
  98
  118
  140
  164
  190
  219
  249
  282
  316
  353
  391
  432
  474
  518
  564
  612
  661
  713
  767
  823
  881
  941
  1,004
  1,069
  1,137
  1,208
  1,281
  1,358
  1,438
  1,521
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  6
  12
  19
  26
  34
  43
  53
  63
  74
  85
  97
  110
  123
  137
  151
  166
  182
  198
  215
  232
  250
  269
  288
  309
  330
  352
  375
  399
  424
Earnings before tax, $m
  41
  66
  75
  85
  95
  106
  118
  131
  145
  160
  175
  195
  211
  229
  247
  266
  286
  307
  328
  351
  374
  398
  423
  449
  476
  504
  533
  564
  596
  629
  663
Tax expense, $m
  11
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  43
  47
  53
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
  89
  95
  101
  107
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  179
Net income, $m
  30
  48
  55
  62
  69
  78
  86
  96
  106
  117
  128
  142
  154
  167
  180
  194
  209
  224
  240
  256
  273
  290
  309
  328
  347
  368
  389
  412
  435
  459
  484

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  89
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,153
  1,297
  1,559
  1,851
  2,171
  2,520
  2,898
  3,303
  3,735
  4,194
  4,678
  5,188
  5,722
  6,281
  6,865
  7,474
  8,108
  8,767
  9,452
  10,165
  10,905
  11,674
  12,474
  13,305
  14,170
  15,069
  16,006
  16,981
  17,997
  19,056
  20,160
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,064
  1,297
  1,559
  1,851
  2,171
  2,520
  2,898
  3,303
  3,735
  4,194
  4,678
  5,188
  5,722
  6,281
  6,865
  7,474
  8,108
  8,767
  9,452
  10,165
  10,905
  11,674
  12,474
  13,305
  14,170
  15,069
  16,006
  16,981
  17,997
  19,056
  20,160
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
Average production assets, $m
  167
  204
  245
  291
  341
  396
  455
  519
  587
  659
  735
  815
  899
  987
  1,078
  1,174
  1,274
  1,377
  1,485
  1,597
  1,713
  1,834
  1,959
  2,090
  2,226
  2,367
  2,514
  2,667
  2,827
  2,993
  3,167
Working capital, $m
  72
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -52
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -76
  -82
  -89
  -97
  -104
  -112
  -120
  -129
  -137
  -146
  -156
  -166
  -176
  -187
  -198
  -210
  -222
Total debt, $m
  9
  161
  337
  533
  749
  984
  1,238
  1,511
  1,802
  2,110
  2,436
  2,779
  3,139
  3,515
  3,908
  4,318
  4,744
  5,188
  5,649
  6,129
  6,627
  7,145
  7,683
  8,242
  8,824
  9,430
  10,060
  10,716
  11,400
  12,112
  12,856
Total liabilities, $m
  720
  873
  1,049
  1,245
  1,461
  1,696
  1,950
  2,223
  2,514
  2,822
  3,148
  3,491
  3,851
  4,227
  4,620
  5,030
  5,456
  5,900
  6,361
  6,841
  7,339
  7,857
  8,395
  8,954
  9,536
  10,142
  10,772
  11,428
  12,112
  12,824
  13,568
Total equity, $m
  432
  424
  510
  605
  710
  824
  948
  1,080
  1,221
  1,371
  1,530
  1,696
  1,871
  2,054
  2,245
  2,444
  2,651
  2,867
  3,091
  3,324
  3,566
  3,818
  4,079
  4,351
  4,634
  4,928
  5,234
  5,553
  5,885
  6,231
  6,592
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,152
  1,297
  1,559
  1,850
  2,171
  2,520
  2,898
  3,303
  3,735
  4,193
  4,678
  5,187
  5,722
  6,281
  6,865
  7,474
  8,107
  8,767
  9,452
  10,165
  10,905
  11,675
  12,474
  13,305
  14,170
  15,070
  16,006
  16,981
  17,997
  19,055
  20,160
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.021
  0.380
  0.660
  0.880
  1.060
  1.190
  1.310
  1.400
  1.480
  1.540
  1.590
  1.640
  1.680
  1.710
  1.740
  1.770
  1.790
  1.810
  1.830
  1.840
  1.860
  1.870
  1.880
  1.890
  1.900
  1.910
  1.920
  1.930
  1.940
  1.940
  1.950
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.322
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  30
  48
  55
  62
  69
  78
  86
  96
  106
  117
  128
  142
  154
  167
  180
  194
  209
  224
  240
  256
  273
  290
  309
  328
  347
  368
  389
  412
  435
  459
  484
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  27
  31
  37
  43
  50
  58
  66
  75
  84
  94
  104
  112
  123
  135
  148
  161
  174
  189
  203
  219
  235
  251
  268
  286
  305
  324
  344
  365
  387
  410
  434
Funds from operations, $m
  144
  80
  92
  105
  120
  135
  152
  170
  190
  210
  232
  254
  277
  302
  328
  355
  383
  413
  443
  475
  507
  542
  577
  614
  652
  692
  734
  777
  822
  869
  918
Change in working capital, $m
  -16
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
Cash from operations, $m
  160
  119
  95
  108
  123
  139
  156
  175
  195
  215
  237
  259
  283
  308
  335
  362
  390
  420
  451
  482
  516
  550
  586
  623
  662
  702
  744
  788
  833
  881
  930
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -28
  -34
  -40
  -47
  -54
  -62
  -71
  -80
  -90
  -101
  -112
  -123
  -135
  -148
  -161
  -174
  -189
  -203
  -219
  -235
  -251
  -268
  -286
  -305
  -324
  -344
  -365
  -387
  -410
New CAPEX, $m
  -69
  -37
  -41
  -46
  -50
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -166
  -173
Cash from investing activities, $m
  358
  -60
  -69
  -80
  -90
  -102
  -113
  -126
  -139
  -152
  -166
  -181
  -196
  -211
  -227
  -244
  -261
  -278
  -297
  -315
  -335
  -356
  -377
  -399
  -422
  -446
  -471
  -497
  -525
  -553
  -583
Free cash flow, $m
  518
  60
  26
  29
  33
  38
  43
  49
  56
  63
  71
  79
  88
  97
  108
  119
  130
  142
  154
  167
  181
  195
  209
  224
  240
  256
  273
  290
  308
  327
  347
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -6
  157
  176
  196
  216
  235
  254
  273
  291
  309
  326
  343
  360
  376
  393
  410
  427
  444
  461
  479
  498
  518
  538
  559
  582
  605
  630
  656
  684
  713
  743
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -554
  157
  176
  196
  216
  235
  254
  273
  291
  309
  326
  343
  360
  376
  393
  410
  427
  444
  461
  479
  498
  518
  538
  559
  582
  605
  630
  656
  684
  713
  743
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -36
  217
  202
  225
  249
  273
  297
  322
  346
  371
  397
  421
  447
  474
  501
  528
  556
  586
  616
  647
  679
  712
  747
  783
  821
  861
  903
  946
  992
  1,040
  1,090
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -98
  -76
  -86
  -95
  -105
  -114
  -123
  -132
  -141
  -150
  -158
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -191
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -224
  -233
  -242
  -252
  -261
  -272
  -283
  -294
  -306
  -319
  -332
  -346
  -361
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  84
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  225
  116
  130
  144
  158
  174
  189
  205
  222
  238
  255
  273
  291
  310
  329
  349
  370
  391
  414
  437
  461
  486
  512
  539
  567
  597
  627
  660
  694
  729
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  215
  106
  113
  118
  123
  126
  128
  128
  127
  125
  121
  116
  111
  104
  97
  89
  80
  72
  64
  55
  48
  40
  34
  27
  22
  17
  13
  10
  8
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Ultimate Software Group, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management solutions primarily to enterprise companies in the United States and Canada. The company’s UltiPro software solution delivers the functionality businesses to manage the employee life cycle from recruitment to retirement. Its UltiPro solution includes unified feature sets for talent acquisition and onboarding, human resources (HR) management and compliance, benefits management and online enrollment, payroll, performance management, employee engagement surveying, compensation management with salary planning, budgeting, and development of incentive plans, succession management, learning management, reporting and analytical decision-making and predictive tools, and time and attendance; and has role-based features for HR professionals, executives, managers, administrators, and employees. The company’s UltiPro software solution is delivered primarily over the Internet. It also provides professional services, and customer support and product maintenance services. The company serves customers in various industries, including manufacturing, food services, sports, technology, finance, insurance, retail, real estate, transportation, communications, healthcare, and other services. The Ultimate Software Group, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Weston, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ultimate Software Group (ULTI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 218.4
Price to Sales 8.4
Price to Book 15.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 40.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 72
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 26.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 35.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 18.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 18
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0.9%
Total Debt to Equity 2.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Total Capital 7.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Return On Equity 7.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 61.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.9%
EBITDA Margin 8.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Operating Margin 5.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Net Profit Margin 3.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Effective Tax Rate 26.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30%
Payout Ratio 0%

ULTI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ULTI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $781 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ultimate Software Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ultimate Software Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ULTI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ULTI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ultimate Software Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ultimate Software Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ULTI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ULTI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Ultimate Software Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ultimate Software Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ULTI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ULTI are equal to 21.4%.

Life of production assets of 7.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ultimate Software Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ULTI is equal to -1.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $432 million for Ultimate Software Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 30.127 million for Ultimate Software Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ultimate Software Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ultimate Software Wins Multiple Awards for Customer Service   [May-04-17 10:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Cloud-Hungry Customers Foster Ultimate Software's Growth   [Apr-25-17 07:40PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ultimate Software tops 1Q profit forecasts   [04:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ultimate Reports Q1 2017 Financial Results   [04:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ The 3 Best-Run Companies in the Technology Sector   [Dec-27-16 04:29PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Ultimate Reports Q3 2016 Financial Results   [04:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ [$$] Oracle-NetSuite Deal Has 63% Chance   [Oct-31-16 03:27PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ [$$] How Oracle Got Its Groove Back   [Oct-10-16 03:41PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ [$$] Ultimate Software Acquires Cloud Workforce Intelligence Provider Kanjoya   [Sep-30-16 05:26PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Stock chart of ULTI Financial statements of ULTI Annual reports of ULTI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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