Intrinsic value of Ultimate Software Group - ULTI

Previous Close

$197.72

  Intrinsic Value

$77.92

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-61%

Previous close

$197.72

 
Intrinsic value

$77.92

 
Up/down potential

-61%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ULTI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  26.38
  20.30
  18.77
  17.39
  16.15
  15.04
  14.03
  13.13
  12.32
  11.59
  10.93
  10.33
  9.80
  9.32
  8.89
  8.50
  8.15
  7.84
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.67
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
Revenue, $m
  781
  940
  1,116
  1,310
  1,522
  1,750
  1,996
  2,258
  2,536
  2,830
  3,139
  3,464
  3,803
  4,158
  4,528
  4,912
  5,313
  5,729
  6,162
  6,611
  7,078
  7,564
  8,069
  8,594
  9,140
  9,709
  10,301
  10,918
  11,561
  12,231
  12,931
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  874
  1,037
  1,217
  1,413
  1,625
  1,853
  2,096
  2,353
  2,626
  2,912
  3,209
  3,524
  3,852
  4,195
  4,551
  4,922
  5,308
  5,709
  6,125
  6,558
  7,008
  7,476
  7,962
  8,469
  8,995
  9,544
  10,115
  10,711
  11,333
  11,981
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  740
  874
  1,037
  1,217
  1,413
  1,625
  1,853
  2,096
  2,353
  2,626
  2,912
  3,209
  3,524
  3,852
  4,195
  4,551
  4,922
  5,308
  5,709
  6,125
  6,558
  7,008
  7,476
  7,962
  8,469
  8,995
  9,544
  10,115
  10,711
  11,333
  11,981
Operating income, $m
  42
  66
  78
  93
  108
  125
  143
  162
  183
  204
  227
  255
  279
  306
  333
  361
  390
  421
  453
  486
  520
  556
  593
  631
  672
  713
  757
  802
  849
  899
  950
EBITDA, $m
  69
  97
  115
  135
  156
  180
  205
  232
  261
  291
  323
  356
  391
  427
  465
  505
  546
  589
  633
  680
  728
  778
  829
  883
  940
  998
  1,059
  1,122
  1,188
  1,257
  1,329
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  5
  11
  17
  24
  31
  39
  48
  56
  66
  76
  86
  97
  109
  120
  133
  146
  159
  173
  187
  202
  218
  234
  251
  268
  287
  306
  325
  346
  368
Earnings before tax, $m
  41
  65
  73
  82
  91
  101
  112
  123
  135
  148
  161
  179
  193
  208
  224
  241
  258
  275
  294
  313
  333
  354
  375
  397
  421
  445
  470
  497
  524
  553
  583
Tax expense, $m
  11
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  37
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  70
  74
  79
  85
  90
  95
  101
  107
  114
  120
  127
  134
  141
  149
  157
Net income, $m
  30
  48
  53
  60
  67
  74
  82
  90
  99
  108
  118
  130
  141
  152
  164
  176
  188
  201
  215
  228
  243
  258
  274
  290
  307
  325
  343
  363
  383
  403
  425

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  89
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,153
  1,280
  1,520
  1,785
  2,073
  2,385
  2,719
  3,077
  3,456
  3,856
  4,277
  4,719
  5,182
  5,665
  6,168
  6,693
  7,238
  7,805
  8,395
  9,007
  9,644
  10,305
  10,993
  11,708
  12,453
  13,227
  14,034
  14,874
  15,750
  16,664
  17,617
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,064
  1,280
  1,520
  1,785
  2,073
  2,385
  2,719
  3,077
  3,456
  3,856
  4,277
  4,719
  5,182
  5,665
  6,168
  6,693
  7,238
  7,805
  8,395
  9,007
  9,644
  10,305
  10,993
  11,708
  12,453
  13,227
  14,034
  14,874
  15,750
  16,664
  17,617
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
Average production assets, $m
  167
  201
  239
  280
  326
  375
  427
  483
  543
  606
  672
  741
  814
  890
  969
  1,051
  1,137
  1,226
  1,319
  1,415
  1,515
  1,619
  1,727
  1,839
  1,956
  2,078
  2,204
  2,336
  2,474
  2,618
  2,767
Working capital, $m
  72
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -146
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -183
  -194
Total debt, $m
  9
  149
  311
  489
  683
  893
  1,118
  1,359
  1,614
  1,883
  2,167
  2,464
  2,775
  3,100
  3,439
  3,792
  4,159
  4,541
  4,938
  5,350
  5,778
  6,223
  6,686
  7,168
  7,669
  8,190
  8,733
  9,298
  9,888
  10,503
  11,144
Total liabilities, $m
  720
  861
  1,023
  1,201
  1,395
  1,605
  1,830
  2,071
  2,326
  2,595
  2,879
  3,176
  3,487
  3,812
  4,151
  4,504
  4,871
  5,253
  5,650
  6,062
  6,490
  6,935
  7,398
  7,880
  8,381
  8,902
  9,445
  10,010
  10,600
  11,215
  11,856
Total equity, $m
  432
  419
  497
  584
  678
  780
  889
  1,006
  1,130
  1,261
  1,399
  1,543
  1,694
  1,852
  2,017
  2,189
  2,367
  2,552
  2,745
  2,945
  3,154
  3,370
  3,595
  3,829
  4,072
  4,325
  4,589
  4,864
  5,150
  5,449
  5,761
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,152
  1,280
  1,520
  1,785
  2,073
  2,385
  2,719
  3,077
  3,456
  3,856
  4,278
  4,719
  5,181
  5,664
  6,168
  6,693
  7,238
  7,805
  8,395
  9,007
  9,644
  10,305
  10,993
  11,709
  12,453
  13,227
  14,034
  14,874
  15,750
  16,664
  17,617
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.021
  0.360
  0.630
  0.840
  1.010
  1.150
  1.260
  1.350
  1.430
  1.490
  1.550
  1.600
  1.640
  1.670
  1.710
  1.730
  1.760
  1.780
  1.800
  1.820
  1.830
  1.850
  1.860
  1.870
  1.880
  1.890
  1.900
  1.910
  1.920
  1.930
  1.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.322
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  30
  48
  53
  60
  67
  74
  82
  90
  99
  108
  118
  130
  141
  152
  164
  176
  188
  201
  215
  228
  243
  258
  274
  290
  307
  325
  343
  363
  383
  403
  425
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  27
  31
  36
  42
  48
  55
  62
  70
  78
  86
  96
  102
  111
  122
  133
  144
  156
  168
  181
  194
  208
  222
  237
  252
  268
  285
  302
  320
  339
  359
  379
Funds from operations, $m
  144
  79
  90
  102
  115
  129
  144
  160
  177
  195
  213
  232
  253
  274
  296
  320
  344
  369
  395
  422
  451
  480
  510
  542
  575
  609
  645
  683
  721
  762
  804
Change in working capital, $m
  -16
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
Cash from operations, $m
  160
  81
  92
  105
  118
  132
  147
  164
  181
  199
  218
  237
  258
  279
  302
  325
  350
  375
  402
  429
  458
  487
  518
  550
  583
  618
  654
  692
  731
  772
  815
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -28
  -33
  -38
  -45
  -51
  -59
  -66
  -74
  -83
  -92
  -102
  -111
  -122
  -133
  -144
  -156
  -168
  -181
  -194
  -208
  -222
  -237
  -252
  -268
  -285
  -302
  -320
  -339
  -359
New CAPEX, $m
  -69
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -150
Cash from investing activities, $m
  358
  -57
  -66
  -75
  -83
  -94
  -104
  -115
  -126
  -137
  -149
  -161
  -175
  -187
  -201
  -215
  -230
  -245
  -261
  -277
  -294
  -312
  -330
  -349
  -369
  -390
  -412
  -434
  -458
  -483
  -509
Free cash flow, $m
  518
  24
  27
  30
  34
  39
  44
  49
  55
  62
  69
  75
  83
  92
  101
  110
  120
  130
  141
  152
  164
  176
  188
  201
  214
  228
  243
  258
  273
  290
  307
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -6
  145
  162
  178
  194
  210
  225
  240
  255
  269
  284
  297
  311
  325
  339
  353
  367
  382
  397
  412
  428
  445
  463
  481
  501
  521
  543
  566
  590
  615
  642
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -25
  23
  25
  27
  28
  28
  28
  27
  25
  23
  20
  14
  10
  6
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -554
  168
  187
  205
  222
  238
  253
  267
  280
  292
  304
  311
  321
  331
  340
  353
  367
  382
  397
  412
  428
  445
  463
  481
  501
  521
  543
  566
  590
  615
  642
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -36
  193
  214
  235
  256
  276
  297
  316
  335
  354
  372
  387
  405
  423
  441
  463
  487
  512
  538
  564
  592
  621
  651
  682
  715
  750
  786
  823
  863
  905
  948
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -98
  -71
  -79
  -86
  -94
  -102
  -109
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -200
  -208
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -243
  -253
  -264
  -275
  -286
  -299
  -312
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  84
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  206
  135
  149
  162
  174
  187
  199
  211
  223
  235
  242
  254
  265
  276
  292
  309
  327
  345
  364
  384
  405
  426
  449
  472
  496
  522
  549
  577
  606
  636
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  197
  124
  129
  133
  135
  136
  135
  132
  128
  123
  115
  108
  101
  93
  86
  78
  71
  64
  56
  49
  42
  35
  29
  24
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.3
  98.8
  98.2
  97.8
  97.4
  97.0
  96.7
  96.5
  96.3
  96.1
  96.0
  96.0
  95.9
  95.9
  95.9
  95.9
  95.9
  95.9
  95.9
  95.9
  95.9
  95.9
  95.9
  95.9
  95.9
  95.9
  95.9
  95.9
  95.9
  95.9

The Ultimate Software Group, Inc. (Ultimate) is a cloud provider of people management solutions, referred to as human capital management (HCM). The Company's UltiPro product suite (UltiPro) is an engaging solution that has human resources (HR), payroll and benefits management. As of December 31, 2016, UltiPro included global people management, available in 14 languages with more than 35 country-specific localizations. The solution is delivered through software-as-a-service (SaaS) to organizations based in the United States and Canada, including those with global workforces. The UltiPro solution includes feature sets for talent acquisition and onboarding, HR management and compliance, benefits management and online enrollment, payroll, performance management, compensation management with salary planning, budgeting, and development of incentive plans, succession management, reporting and analytical decision-making and predictive tools, and time and attendance.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ultimate Software Group (ULTI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 193.4
Price to Sales 7.4
Price to Book 13.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 36.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 63.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 26.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 35.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 18.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 18
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0.9%
Total Debt to Equity 2.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Total Capital 7.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Return On Equity 7.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 61.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.9%
EBITDA Margin 8.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Operating Margin 5.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Net Profit Margin 3.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Effective Tax Rate 26.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30%
Payout Ratio 0%

ULTI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ULTI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $781 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ultimate Software Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ultimate Software Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ULTI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ULTI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ultimate Software Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ultimate Software Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ULTI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ULTI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Ultimate Software Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ultimate Software Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ULTI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ULTI are equal to 21.4%.

Life of production assets of 7.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ultimate Software Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ULTI is equal to -1.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $432 million for Ultimate Software Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.831 million for Ultimate Software Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ultimate Software Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.9 billion.

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▶ Ultimate Software Wins Multiple Awards for Customer Service   [May-04-17 10:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Cloud-Hungry Customers Foster Ultimate Software's Growth   [Apr-25-17 07:40PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ultimate Software tops 1Q profit forecasts   [04:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ultimate Reports Q1 2017 Financial Results   [04:00PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of ULTI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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