Intrinsic value of UMH Properties - UMH

Previous Close

$14.77

  Intrinsic Value

$2.34

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-84%

Previous close

$14.77

 
Intrinsic value

$2.34

 
Up/down potential

-84%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as UMH.

We calculate the intrinsic value of UMH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.73
  16.00
  14.90
  13.91
  13.02
  12.22
  11.50
  10.85
  10.26
  9.74
  9.26
  8.84
  8.45
  8.11
  7.80
  7.52
  7.26
  7.04
  6.83
  6.65
  6.49
  6.34
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
Revenue, $m
  99
  115
  132
  150
  170
  191
  213
  236
  260
  285
  311
  339
  368
  397
  428
  461
  494
  529
  565
  603
  642
  682
  725
  769
  815
  863
  912
  965
  1,019
  1,076
  1,135
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  74
  85
  97
  110
  123
  137
  152
  168
  184
  201
  219
  237
  257
  277
  298
  319
  342
  365
  389
  415
  441
  468
  497
  526
  557
  589
  623
  658
  695
  733
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
Total operating expenses, $m
  83
  93
  105
  117
  131
  144
  159
  175
  191
  208
  225
  244
  263
  283
  304
  326
  347
  371
  395
  419
  446
  473
  501
  531
  560
  592
  625
  660
  696
  734
  773
Operating income, $m
  16
  21
  27
  33
  39
  46
  53
  61
  69
  77
  86
  95
  105
  114
  125
  136
  147
  158
  170
  183
  196
  210
  224
  239
  254
  270
  287
  304
  323
  342
  362
EBITDA, $m
  39
  48
  57
  68
  79
  90
  103
  115
  129
  143
  158
  174
  190
  207
  224
  242
  261
  281
  302
  323
  345
  368
  392
  417
  443
  470
  499
  528
  559
  592
  625
Interest expense (income), $m
  15
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  72
  78
  83
  89
  95
  101
  107
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
Earnings before tax, $m
  12
  6
  9
  12
  16
  20
  24
  28
  32
  37
  41
  46
  51
  57
  62
  68
  74
  81
  87
  94
  101
  109
  116
  125
  133
  142
  151
  161
  171
  181
  192
Tax expense, $m
  0
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
Net income, $m
  12
  4
  7
  9
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  27
  30
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  91
  97
  104
  110
  117
  125
  132
  140

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  680
  787
  904
  1,029
  1,164
  1,306
  1,456
  1,614
  1,779
  1,952
  2,133
  2,322
  2,518
  2,722
  2,934
  3,155
  3,384
  3,622
  3,870
  4,127
  4,395
  4,673
  4,963
  5,265
  5,580
  5,908
  6,250
  6,607
  6,979
  7,369
  7,775
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  676
  787
  904
  1,029
  1,164
  1,306
  1,456
  1,614
  1,779
  1,952
  2,133
  2,322
  2,518
  2,722
  2,934
  3,155
  3,384
  3,622
  3,870
  4,127
  4,395
  4,673
  4,963
  5,265
  5,580
  5,908
  6,250
  6,607
  6,979
  7,369
  7,775
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
Average production assets, $m
  494
  573
  658
  750
  848
  951
  1,061
  1,176
  1,296
  1,422
  1,554
  1,691
  1,834
  1,983
  2,138
  2,298
  2,465
  2,639
  2,819
  3,007
  3,202
  3,405
  3,616
  3,836
  4,065
  4,304
  4,553
  4,813
  5,085
  5,368
  5,664
Working capital, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
Total debt, $m
  351
  410
  473
  541
  613
  689
  770
  855
  943
  1,036
  1,134
  1,235
  1,340
  1,450
  1,564
  1,682
  1,805
  1,933
  2,066
  2,204
  2,348
  2,498
  2,653
  2,815
  2,984
  3,160
  3,344
  3,536
  3,736
  3,945
  4,163
Total liabilities, $m
  363
  422
  485
  553
  625
  701
  782
  867
  955
  1,048
  1,146
  1,247
  1,352
  1,462
  1,576
  1,694
  1,817
  1,945
  2,078
  2,216
  2,360
  2,510
  2,665
  2,827
  2,996
  3,172
  3,356
  3,548
  3,748
  3,957
  4,175
Total equity, $m
  317
  364
  418
  477
  539
  605
  674
  747
  824
  904
  988
  1,075
  1,166
  1,260
  1,359
  1,461
  1,567
  1,677
  1,792
  1,911
  2,035
  2,164
  2,298
  2,438
  2,583
  2,735
  2,894
  3,059
  3,231
  3,412
  3,600
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  680
  786
  903
  1,030
  1,164
  1,306
  1,456
  1,614
  1,779
  1,952
  2,134
  2,322
  2,518
  2,722
  2,935
  3,155
  3,384
  3,622
  3,870
  4,127
  4,395
  4,674
  4,963
  5,265
  5,579
  5,907
  6,250
  6,607
  6,979
  7,369
  7,775
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.107
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  12
  4
  7
  9
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  27
  30
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  91
  97
  104
  110
  117
  125
  132
  140
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  27
  31
  35
  39
  44
  49
  55
  60
  66
  72
  79
  85
  92
  99
  107
  115
  123
  131
  140
  149
  158
  168
  178
  189
  200
  212
  224
  237
  250
  263
Funds from operations, $m
  23
  31
  37
  44
  51
  59
  67
  75
  84
  93
  102
  112
  123
  134
  145
  157
  169
  182
  195
  209
  223
  238
  253
  269
  286
  304
  322
  341
  361
  382
  404
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  29
  32
  38
  45
  52
  59
  67
  76
  85
  94
  104
  114
  124
  135
  146
  158
  170
  183
  196
  210
  224
  239
  255
  271
  288
  306
  324
  343
  363
  384
  406
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -44
  -49
  -55
  -60
  -66
  -72
  -79
  -85
  -92
  -99
  -107
  -115
  -123
  -131
  -140
  -149
  -158
  -168
  -178
  -189
  -200
  -212
  -224
  -237
  -250
New CAPEX, $m
  -62
  -79
  -85
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -167
  -174
  -180
  -188
  -195
  -203
  -211
  -220
  -229
  -239
  -249
  -260
  -271
  -284
  -296
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -78
  -102
  -112
  -123
  -133
  -143
  -153
  -164
  -176
  -186
  -198
  -209
  -222
  -234
  -247
  -260
  -274
  -289
  -303
  -319
  -335
  -352
  -369
  -388
  -407
  -428
  -449
  -472
  -495
  -521
  -546
Free cash flow, $m
  -49
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -86
  -89
  -91
  -93
  -94
  -96
  -98
  -99
  -101
  -102
  -104
  -105
  -107
  -109
  -110
  -113
  -115
  -117
  -120
  -122
  -125
  -129
  -132
  -136
  -140
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  7
  59
  63
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  200
  209
  218
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  72
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  53
  53
  54
  53
  53
  53
  53
  52
  52
  51
  51
  50
  50
  50
  49
  49
  49
  48
  48
  48
  48
  48
  48
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  78
  106
  111
  117
  122
  127
  133
  138
  142
  146
  151
  154
  158
  163
  167
  170
  175
  179
  184
  188
  194
  200
  205
  211
  218
  224
  232
  240
  248
  257
  266
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  30
  36
  36
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -71
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -180
  -188
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -11
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
Discount rate, %
 
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.49
  12.06
  12.66
  13.30
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.82
  18.71
  19.65
  20.63
  21.66
  22.74
  23.88
  25.07
  26.33
  27.64
  29.03
  30.48
  32.00
  33.60
  35.28
  37.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -10
  -15
  -14
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  91.4
  84.4
  78.5
  73.6
  69.4
  65.8
  62.7
  60.0
  57.6
  55.5
  53.7
  52.1
  50.6
  49.3
  48.1
  47.1
  46.1
  45.2
  44.4
  43.7
  43.1
  42.4
  41.9
  41.4
  40.9
  40.4
  40.0
  39.6
  39.2
  38.9

UMH Properties, Inc. (UMH) is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company's primary business is the ownership and operation of manufactured home communities, including leasing manufactured home sites to private manufactured home owners. The Company also leases homes to residents, and through its taxable REIT subsidiary, UMH Sales and Finance, Inc. (S&F), conducts manufactured home sales in its communities. As of May 31, 2017, the Company owned 107 manufactured home communities consisting of approximately 19,400 developed sites. The communities are located in New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Indiana and Michigan. In connection with the operation of its communities, UMH also leases homes to prospective tenants. As of December 31, 2016, UMH owned a total of 4,700 rental homes, representing approximately 26% of its developed sites. These rental homes are owned by the Company and rented to residents.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  UMH Properties (UMH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 36.2
Price to Sales 4.4
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15
Price to Free Cash Flow -13.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 20.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 19.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 18.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 110.7%
Total Debt to Equity 110.7%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Total Capital 1.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Return On Equity 4.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.7%
EBITDA Margin 50.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.7%
Operating Margin 16.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Net Profit Margin 12.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 266.7%

UMH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UMH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $99 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by UMH Properties. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of UMH Properties. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UMH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 16% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9%, whose default value for UMH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of UMH Properties, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of UMH Properties.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UMH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 64.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $19 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UMH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.3% for UMH Properties.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for UMH Properties. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UMH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UMH are equal to 499%.

Life of production assets of 21.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in UMH Properties operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UMH is equal to -4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $317 million for UMH Properties - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.895 million for UMH Properties is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of UMH Properties at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ UMH Properties, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-03-17 08:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ UMH reports 3Q results   [Nov-02-17 10:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 REITs That Are Just Right for Retirement   [Oct-27-17 05:56AM  Harvest Exchange]
▶ UMH Properties, Inc. Reports 2nd Quarter 2017 Earnings   [Aug-03-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 4 Hidden Gem REITs Paying Up To 6.6%   [Jul-27-17 09:12AM  Forbes]
▶ UMH Properties, Inc. Announces New Mortgage Loan   [Jun-01-17 04:01PM  PR Newswire]
▶ UMH Properties, Inc. Added To MSCI US REIT Index (RMZ)   [May-16-17 08:37AM  PR Newswire]
▶ UMH reports 1Q results   [May-09-17 06:40PM  Associated Press]
▶ UMH Properties, Inc. Reports Common Shares Outstanding   [Apr-28-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ UMH reports 4Q results   [Mar-08-17 06:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ UMH Properties, Inc. Announces Promotion   [Dec-19-16 05:24PM  PR Newswire]
▶ How Dorian LPG Ltd (LPG) Stocks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-12-16 08:35PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Jive Software Inc (JIVE) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-07-16 06:38AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ UMH Properties, Inc. Announces New Mortgage Loans   [Nov-01-16 01:15PM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of UMH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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