Intrinsic value of United Natural Foods - UNFI

Previous Close

$49.00

  Intrinsic Value

$22.90

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-53%

Previous close

$49.00

 
Intrinsic value

$22.90

 
Up/down potential

-53%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of UNFI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.49
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
Revenue, $m
  9,274
  10,007
  10,768
  11,560
  12,382
  13,237
  14,125
  15,049
  16,010
  17,011
  18,052
  19,137
  20,268
  21,448
  22,678
  23,963
  25,304
  26,705
  28,169
  29,700
  31,302
  32,977
  34,731
  36,567
  38,489
  40,502
  42,612
  44,822
  47,139
  49,567
  52,113
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  9,744
  10,482
  11,250
  12,047
  12,877
  13,738
  14,635
  15,567
  16,537
  17,548
  18,563
  19,660
  20,804
  21,998
  23,244
  24,545
  25,904
  27,324
  28,809
  30,363
  31,988
  33,689
  35,470
  37,334
  39,287
  41,333
  43,478
  45,725
  48,080
  50,550
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  9,048
  9,744
  10,482
  11,250
  12,047
  12,877
  13,738
  14,635
  15,567
  16,537
  17,548
  18,563
  19,660
  20,804
  21,998
  23,244
  24,545
  25,904
  27,324
  28,809
  30,363
  31,988
  33,689
  35,470
  37,334
  39,287
  41,333
  43,478
  45,725
  48,080
  50,550
Operating income, $m
  226
  263
  286
  310
  334
  360
  387
  414
  443
  473
  504
  574
  608
  643
  680
  719
  759
  801
  845
  891
  939
  989
  1,042
  1,097
  1,155
  1,215
  1,278
  1,345
  1,414
  1,487
  1,563
EBITDA, $m
  312
  364
  392
  421
  451
  482
  514
  548
  583
  619
  657
  697
  738
  781
  826
  872
  921
  972
  1,025
  1,081
  1,139
  1,200
  1,264
  1,331
  1,401
  1,474
  1,551
  1,632
  1,716
  1,804
  1,897
Interest expense (income), $m
  17
  13
  16
  20
  23
  27
  31
  35
  39
  43
  48
  53
  57
  63
  68
  73
  79
  85
  91
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  136
  144
  154
  163
  173
  183
  194
Earnings before tax, $m
  214
  250
  270
  290
  311
  333
  356
  380
  404
  430
  457
  522
  551
  581
  613
  646
  680
  716
  754
  793
  834
  877
  922
  969
  1,019
  1,071
  1,125
  1,182
  1,241
  1,304
  1,369
Tax expense, $m
  84
  68
  73
  78
  84
  90
  96
  102
  109
  116
  123
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  184
  193
  203
  214
  225
  237
  249
  262
  275
  289
  304
  319
  335
  352
  370
Net income, $m
  130
  183
  197
  212
  227
  243
  260
  277
  295
  314
  333
  381
  402
  424
  447
  471
  496
  523
  550
  579
  609
  640
  673
  708
  744
  782
  821
  863
  906
  952
  999

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,887
  3,099
  3,335
  3,580
  3,835
  4,099
  4,374
  4,661
  4,958
  5,268
  5,591
  5,927
  6,277
  6,642
  7,023
  7,421
  7,836
  8,270
  8,724
  9,198
  9,694
  10,213
  10,756
  11,324
  11,920
  12,543
  13,197
  13,881
  14,599
  15,351
  16,139
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,872
  3,099
  3,335
  3,580
  3,835
  4,099
  4,374
  4,661
  4,958
  5,268
  5,591
  5,927
  6,277
  6,642
  7,023
  7,421
  7,836
  8,270
  8,724
  9,198
  9,694
  10,213
  10,756
  11,324
  11,920
  12,543
  13,197
  13,881
  14,599
  15,351
  16,139
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
  3.229
Average production assets, $m
  825
  891
  958
  1,029
  1,102
  1,178
  1,257
  1,339
  1,425
  1,514
  1,607
  1,703
  1,804
  1,909
  2,018
  2,133
  2,252
  2,377
  2,507
  2,643
  2,786
  2,935
  3,091
  3,254
  3,426
  3,605
  3,792
  3,989
  4,195
  4,411
  4,638
Working capital, $m
  959
  1,031
  1,109
  1,191
  1,275
  1,363
  1,455
  1,550
  1,649
  1,752
  1,859
  1,971
  2,088
  2,209
  2,336
  2,468
  2,606
  2,751
  2,901
  3,059
  3,224
  3,397
  3,577
  3,766
  3,964
  4,172
  4,389
  4,617
  4,855
  5,105
  5,368
Total debt, $m
  386
  467
  565
  667
  772
  882
  996
  1,115
  1,239
  1,367
  1,501
  1,641
  1,786
  1,938
  2,096
  2,261
  2,433
  2,613
  2,801
  2,998
  3,204
  3,419
  3,645
  3,881
  4,128
  4,386
  4,658
  4,942
  5,239
  5,552
  5,879
Total liabilities, $m
  1,205
  1,286
  1,384
  1,486
  1,591
  1,701
  1,815
  1,934
  2,058
  2,186
  2,320
  2,460
  2,605
  2,757
  2,915
  3,080
  3,252
  3,432
  3,620
  3,817
  4,023
  4,238
  4,464
  4,700
  4,947
  5,205
  5,477
  5,761
  6,058
  6,371
  6,698
Total equity, $m
  1,682
  1,813
  1,951
  2,094
  2,243
  2,398
  2,559
  2,726
  2,901
  3,082
  3,271
  3,467
  3,672
  3,886
  4,109
  4,341
  4,584
  4,838
  5,103
  5,381
  5,671
  5,975
  6,292
  6,625
  6,973
  7,338
  7,720
  8,120
  8,540
  8,980
  9,441
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,887
  3,099
  3,335
  3,580
  3,834
  4,099
  4,374
  4,660
  4,959
  5,268
  5,591
  5,927
  6,277
  6,643
  7,024
  7,421
  7,836
  8,270
  8,723
  9,198
  9,694
  10,213
  10,756
  11,325
  11,920
  12,543
  13,197
  13,881
  14,598
  15,351
  16,139
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.229
  0.260
  0.290
  0.320
  0.340
  0.370
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.460
  0.470
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.580
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  130
  183
  197
  212
  227
  243
  260
  277
  295
  314
  333
  381
  402
  424
  447
  471
  496
  523
  550
  579
  609
  640
  673
  708
  744
  782
  821
  863
  906
  952
  999
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  86
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  133
  140
  146
  153
  123
  130
  137
  145
  153
  162
  171
  180
  190
  200
  211
  222
  234
  246
  259
  273
  287
  302
  317
  334
Funds from operations, $m
  319
  284
  303
  323
  343
  365
  387
  410
  435
  460
  486
  503
  532
  561
  592
  625
  658
  694
  731
  769
  809
  852
  896
  942
  990
  1,041
  1,094
  1,150
  1,208
  1,269
  1,333
Change in working capital, $m
  38
  75
  78
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  228
  239
  250
  262
Cash from operations, $m
  281
  208
  224
  241
  259
  277
  296
  315
  336
  357
  379
  392
  415
  440
  466
  492
  520
  549
  580
  611
  644
  679
  715
  753
  792
  833
  877
  922
  969
  1,019
  1,071
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -103
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -145
  -153
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -190
  -200
  -211
  -222
  -234
  -246
  -259
  -273
  -287
  -302
  -317
New CAPEX, $m
  -56
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -216
  -227
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -60
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -172
  -182
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -259
  -272
  -287
  -301
  -316
  -333
  -349
  -367
  -385
  -405
  -425
  -447
  -470
  -493
  -518
  -544
Free cash flow, $m
  221
  83
  93
  102
  112
  122
  132
  143
  154
  165
  177
  179
  192
  205
  219
  233
  247
  263
  278
  295
  312
  329
  348
  367
  387
  408
  430
  452
  476
  501
  527
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -222
  93
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  271
  284
  298
  312
  327
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -225
  93
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  271
  284
  298
  312
  327
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -3
  176
  190
  204
  217
  231
  246
  261
  277
  294
  311
  319
  337
  357
  377
  398
  420
  443
  467
  491
  518
  545
  573
  603
  634
  667
  701
  736
  774
  813
  854
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -162
  -134
  -138
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -167
  -174
  -181
  -189
  -197
  -205
  -214
  -223
  -233
  -243
  -254
  -265
  -277
  -290
  -304
  -318
  -333
  -348
  -365
  -382
  -400
  -420
  -440
  -461
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  45
  52
  60
  68
  77
  85
  94
  103
  113
  122
  122
  133
  143
  154
  165
  177
  189
  201
  214
  227
  241
  255
  270
  286
  302
  319
  336
  354
  373
  393
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  43
  48
  52
  56
  59
  62
  64
  64
  65
  64
  58
  57
  54
  52
  49
  45
  41
  37
  33
  29
  25
  21
  18
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

United Natural Foods, Inc. is a distributor and retailer of natural, organic and specialty products. The Company's segments include Wholesale and Other. The Wholesale segment is engaged in the national distribution of natural, organic and specialty foods, produce and related products in the United States and Canada. The Other segment includes a retail division, which engages in the sale of natural foods and related products to the general public through retail storefronts on the east coast of the United States; a manufacturing division, which engages in importing, roasting and packaging of nuts, seeds, dried fruit and snack items, and its branded product lines. Its operations consist of three operating divisions: Wholesale Division, Retail Division, and Manufacturing and Branded Products divisions. As of July 30, 2016, the Company had offered 100,000 natural, organic and specialty foods, and non-food products, consisting of national, regional and private-label brands.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  United Natural Foods (UNFI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.1
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 11
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 36.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -17.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 22.2%
Total Debt to Equity 22.9%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Return On Total Capital 6.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Return On Equity 8.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Asset Turnover 3.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 15.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
EBITDA Margin 3.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Operating Margin 2.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Net Profit Margin 1.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Effective Tax Rate 39.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

UNFI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UNFI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $9274 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by United Natural Foods. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of United Natural Foods. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UNFI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for UNFI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of United Natural Foods, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of United Natural Foods.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UNFI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UNFI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for United Natural Foods.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for United Natural Foods. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UNFI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UNFI are equal to 8.9%.

Life of production assets of 13.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in United Natural Foods operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UNFI is equal to 10.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1682 million for United Natural Foods - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 50.538 million for United Natural Foods is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of United Natural Foods at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ United Natural Foods Earns RS Rating Upgrade   [Jan-16-18 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Supervalus Ratings Didnt Change after Its 3Q18 Results   [Jan-15-18 07:36AM  Market Realist]
▶ Supervalus Gross Margin Fell More in 3Q18   [12:55PM  Market Realist]
▶ How Did Supervalu Perform in 3Q18?   [11:24AM  Market Realist]
▶ Company News For Dec 11, 2017   [10:29AM  Zacks]
▶ United Natural beats Street 1Q forecasts   [Dec-07-17 04:16PM  Associated Press]
▶ Chipotle stock still looks like a falling knife   [Nov-29-17 11:18AM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ United Natural Foods Earns IBD Rating Upgrade   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Food Industry Staples: 3 Stocks to Buy Now   [Oct-17-17 03:23PM  Zacks]
▶ United Natural Foods Gets Technical Rating Upgrade   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Company News For Sep 15, 2017   [Sep-15-17 10:15AM  Zacks]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [Sep-14-17 05:09PM  Motley Fool]
▶ United Natural beats 4Q profit forecasts   [Sep-13-17 11:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ United Natural beats 4Q profit forecasts   [04:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ Don't Miss These 5 Top Stocks Near Buy Points: Investing Action Plan   [Sep-12-17 04:06PM  Investor's Business Daily]
Financial statements of UNFI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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