Intrinsic value of United Natural Foods - UNFI

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$35.66

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of UNFI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.48
  9.70
  9.23
  8.81
  8.43
  8.08
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.47
  6.33
  6.19
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.71
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.42
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
Revenue, $m
  8,470
  9,292
  10,149
  11,043
  11,974
  12,941
  13,948
  14,993
  16,080
  17,210
  18,383
  19,604
  20,873
  22,194
  23,569
  25,001
  26,493
  28,048
  29,670
  31,363
  33,130
  34,976
  36,905
  38,921
  41,029
  43,234
  45,542
  47,957
  50,486
  53,135
  55,909
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  9,009
  9,837
  10,701
  11,599
  12,534
  13,506
  14,515
  15,565
  16,655
  17,789
  18,931
  20,157
  21,432
  22,760
  24,143
  25,583
  27,085
  28,652
  30,287
  31,993
  33,776
  35,638
  37,585
  39,621
  41,750
  43,979
  46,311
  48,753
  51,311
  53,990
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  8,246
  9,009
  9,837
  10,701
  11,599
  12,534
  13,506
  14,515
  15,565
  16,655
  17,789
  18,931
  20,157
  21,432
  22,760
  24,143
  25,583
  27,085
  28,652
  30,287
  31,993
  33,776
  35,638
  37,585
  39,621
  41,750
  43,979
  46,311
  48,753
  51,311
  53,990
Operating income, $m
  224
  282
  312
  342
  374
  408
  442
  478
  515
  554
  594
  673
  716
  762
  809
  858
  909
  963
  1,018
  1,076
  1,137
  1,200
  1,267
  1,336
  1,408
  1,484
  1,563
  1,646
  1,733
  1,824
  1,919
EBITDA, $m
  295
  374
  409
  445
  482
  521
  562
  604
  648
  693
  740
  789
  841
  894
  949
  1,007
  1,067
  1,129
  1,195
  1,263
  1,334
  1,408
  1,486
  1,567
  1,652
  1,741
  1,834
  1,931
  2,033
  2,140
  2,251
Interest expense (income), $m
  17
  21
  25
  30
  35
  40
  45
  50
  56
  62
  68
  75
  81
  88
  95
  103
  111
  119
  127
  136
  145
  155
  165
  176
  187
  198
  210
  223
  236
  250
  264
Earnings before tax, $m
  208
  262
  287
  313
  340
  368
  397
  428
  459
  492
  526
  598
  635
  673
  713
  755
  798
  844
  891
  940
  992
  1,045
  1,101
  1,160
  1,221
  1,286
  1,353
  1,423
  1,497
  1,574
  1,655
Tax expense, $m
  82
  71
  77
  84
  92
  99
  107
  115
  124
  133
  142
  162
  171
  182
  193
  204
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
  282
  297
  313
  330
  347
  365
  384
  404
  425
  447
Net income, $m
  126
  191
  209
  228
  248
  269
  290
  312
  335
  359
  384
  437
  464
  492
  521
  551
  583
  616
  650
  686
  724
  763
  804
  847
  892
  939
  988
  1,039
  1,093
  1,149
  1,208

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,852
  3,108
  3,394
  3,693
  4,005
  4,328
  4,665
  5,015
  5,378
  5,756
  6,148
  6,556
  6,981
  7,423
  7,883
  8,361
  8,860
  9,381
  9,923
  10,489
  11,080
  11,698
  12,343
  13,017
  13,722
  14,460
  15,231
  16,039
  16,885
  17,771
  18,699
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,833
  3,108
  3,394
  3,693
  4,005
  4,328
  4,665
  5,015
  5,378
  5,756
  6,148
  6,556
  6,981
  7,423
  7,883
  8,361
  8,860
  9,381
  9,923
  10,489
  11,080
  11,698
  12,343
  13,017
  13,722
  14,460
  15,231
  16,039
  16,885
  17,771
  18,699
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
Average production assets, $m
  769
  846
  924
  1,005
  1,090
  1,178
  1,269
  1,364
  1,463
  1,566
  1,673
  1,784
  1,899
  2,020
  2,145
  2,275
  2,411
  2,552
  2,700
  2,854
  3,015
  3,183
  3,358
  3,542
  3,734
  3,934
  4,144
  4,364
  4,594
  4,835
  5,088
Working capital, $m
  991
  1,078
  1,177
  1,281
  1,389
  1,501
  1,618
  1,739
  1,865
  1,996
  2,132
  2,274
  2,421
  2,574
  2,734
  2,900
  3,073
  3,254
  3,442
  3,638
  3,843
  4,057
  4,281
  4,515
  4,759
  5,015
  5,283
  5,563
  5,856
  6,164
  6,485
Total debt, $m
  600
  716
  850
  989
  1,134
  1,285
  1,442
  1,605
  1,774
  1,950
  2,133
  2,323
  2,521
  2,727
  2,941
  3,164
  3,397
  3,639
  3,892
  4,156
  4,431
  4,719
  5,020
  5,334
  5,662
  6,006
  6,366
  6,742
  7,136
  7,549
  7,982
Total liabilities, $m
  1,333
  1,448
  1,582
  1,721
  1,866
  2,017
  2,174
  2,337
  2,506
  2,682
  2,865
  3,055
  3,253
  3,459
  3,673
  3,896
  4,129
  4,371
  4,624
  4,888
  5,163
  5,451
  5,752
  6,066
  6,394
  6,738
  7,098
  7,474
  7,868
  8,281
  8,714
Total equity, $m
  1,520
  1,659
  1,813
  1,972
  2,138
  2,311
  2,491
  2,678
  2,872
  3,074
  3,283
  3,501
  3,728
  3,964
  4,209
  4,465
  4,731
  5,009
  5,299
  5,601
  5,917
  6,247
  6,591
  6,951
  7,328
  7,721
  8,134
  8,565
  9,017
  9,490
  9,985
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,853
  3,107
  3,395
  3,693
  4,004
  4,328
  4,665
  5,015
  5,378
  5,756
  6,148
  6,556
  6,981
  7,423
  7,882
  8,361
  8,860
  9,380
  9,923
  10,489
  11,080
  11,698
  12,343
  13,017
  13,722
  14,459
  15,232
  16,039
  16,885
  17,771
  18,699
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.395
  0.430
  0.470
  0.500
  0.530
  0.560
  0.580
  0.600
  0.620
  0.630
  0.650
  0.660
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.760
  0.770
  0.770
  0.780
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.800
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.530
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  126
  191
  209
  228
  248
  269
  290
  312
  335
  359
  384
  437
  464
  492
  521
  551
  583
  616
  650
  686
  724
  763
  804
  847
  892
  939
  988
  1,039
  1,093
  1,149
  1,208
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  71
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  117
  124
  132
  140
  149
  158
  167
  176
  187
  197
  208
  219
  231
  244
  257
  271
  285
  300
  316
  333
Funds from operations, $m
  361
  283
  306
  331
  356
  382
  409
  438
  467
  498
  530
  553
  588
  624
  661
  700
  740
  783
  827
  873
  921
  971
  1,024
  1,078
  1,136
  1,196
  1,258
  1,324
  1,393
  1,465
  1,540
Change in working capital, $m
  64
  95
  99
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  224
  234
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  307
  322
Cash from operations, $m
  297
  258
  207
  227
  248
  270
  293
  317
  341
  367
  394
  412
  441
  470
  502
  534
  567
  602
  639
  677
  716
  757
  800
  845
  891
  940
  991
  1,044
  1,100
  1,158
  1,219
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -50
  -55
  -60
  -66
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -96
  -102
  -109
  -117
  -124
  -132
  -140
  -149
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -187
  -197
  -208
  -219
  -231
  -244
  -257
  -271
  -285
  -300
  -316
New CAPEX, $m
  -41
  -77
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -230
  -241
  -252
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -351
  -127
  -133
  -141
  -151
  -159
  -169
  -178
  -188
  -199
  -209
  -220
  -233
  -244
  -257
  -270
  -285
  -300
  -315
  -330
  -348
  -365
  -384
  -402
  -423
  -445
  -467
  -491
  -515
  -541
  -568
Free cash flow, $m
  -54
  131
  73
  85
  98
  111
  124
  138
  153
  169
  185
  191
  208
  226
  244
  263
  283
  303
  324
  346
  369
  392
  416
  442
  468
  495
  524
  553
  584
  616
  650
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  58
  128
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  190
  198
  206
  214
  223
  233
  242
  253
  264
  275
  288
  301
  314
  329
  344
  360
  376
  394
  413
  432
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  56
  128
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  190
  198
  206
  214
  223
  233
  242
  253
  264
  275
  288
  301
  314
  329
  344
  360
  376
  394
  413
  432
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  259
  207
  224
  243
  261
  281
  301
  323
  345
  368
  381
  406
  432
  459
  487
  515
  546
  577
  610
  644
  680
  717
  756
  796
  839
  883
  930
  978
  1,029
  1,082
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -187
  -194
  -202
  -210
  -218
  -227
  -236
  -246
  -256
  -266
  -278
  -290
  -302
  -316
  -330
  -344
  -360
  -377
  -394
  -412
  -431
  -452
  -473
  -495
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  120
  54
  65
  76
  89
  101
  115
  129
  143
  158
  164
  180
  196
  213
  231
  249
  268
  287
  307
  328
  350
  372
  396
  420
  445
  471
  498
  527
  556
  587
Discount rate, %
 
  5.20
  5.46
  5.73
  6.02
  6.32
  6.64
  6.97
  7.32
  7.68
  8.07
  8.47
  8.89
  9.34
  9.81
  10.30
  10.81
  11.35
  11.92
  12.51
  13.14
  13.80
  14.49
  15.21
  15.97
  16.77
  17.61
  18.49
  19.41
  20.38
  21.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  114
  48
  55
  60
  65
  69
  72
  73
  73
  73
  67
  65
  61
  58
  53
  48
  43
  38
  33
  28
  23
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

United Natural Foods, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, distributes and retails natural, organic, and specialty foods and non-food products in the United States and Canada. The company operates through three divisions: Wholesale, Retail, and Manufacturing and Branded Products. The Wholesale division offers grocery and general merchandise, produce, perishables and frozen foods, nutritional supplements and sports nutrition, bulk and foodservice products, and personal care products. This segment also distributes an array of specialty protein, cheese, deli, food service, and bakery goods; and organic and conventional produce and non-produce perishable items, and natural and organic specialty and gourmet ethnic products, as well as vitamins, minerals, and supplements. The Retail division operates 13 natural products retail stores primarily in Florida. The Manufacturing and Branded Products division is involved in importing, roasting, packaging, and distributing nuts, dried fruits, seeds, trail mixes, granola, natural and organic snack items, and confections. This segment also provides Blue Marble Brands products on wholesale basis through third-party distributors in organic, natural, and specialty food brands, as well as directly to retailers; and Field Day brand products primarily to customers in its independent natural products retailer channel. The company serves independently owned natural products retailers, supernatural chains, conventional supermarkets, and mass market chains, as well as foodservice, e-commerce, and international customers outside Canada. United Natural Foods, Inc. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  United Natural Foods (UNFI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.3
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6
Price to Free Cash Flow 7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -68.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 38.7%
Total Debt to Equity 39.5%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Total Capital 6.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Return On Equity 8.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Asset Turnover 3.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 15.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.7%
EBITDA Margin 3.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Operating Margin 2.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Net Profit Margin 1.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Effective Tax Rate 39.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

UNFI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UNFI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $8470 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by United Natural Foods. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of United Natural Foods. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UNFI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.2%, whose default value for UNFI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of United Natural Foods, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of United Natural Foods.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UNFI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UNFI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for United Natural Foods.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for United Natural Foods. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UNFI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UNFI are equal to 9.1%.

Life of production assets of 15.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in United Natural Foods operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UNFI is equal to 11.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1520 million for United Natural Foods - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 49.794 million for United Natural Foods is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of United Natural Foods at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.


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Stock chart of UNFI Financial statements of UNFI Annual reports of UNFI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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