Intrinsic value of USA Compression Partners - USAC

Previous Close

$14.71

  Intrinsic Value

$2.34

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-84%

  Value-price divergence*

-23%

Previous close

$14.71

 
Intrinsic value

$2.34

 
Up/down potential

-84%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-23%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of USAC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.85
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  266
  271
  278
  285
  293
  302
  311
  322
  333
  346
  359
  373
  388
  404
  422
  440
  459
  480
  501
  524
  548
  573
  600
  628
  658
  689
  722
  757
  794
  832
  873
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  407
  416
  427
  439
  452
  466
  482
  499
  518
  537
  555
  577
  601
  627
  654
  682
  713
  745
  779
  815
  852
  892
  934
  978
  1,025
  1,074
  1,125
  1,180
  1,237
  1,297
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  232
  407
  416
  427
  439
  452
  466
  482
  499
  518
  537
  555
  577
  601
  627
  654
  682
  713
  745
  779
  815
  852
  892
  934
  978
  1,025
  1,074
  1,125
  1,180
  1,237
  1,297
Operating income, $m
  34
  -136
  -139
  -142
  -146
  -150
  -155
  -160
  -166
  -172
  -178
  -182
  -189
  -197
  -205
  -214
  -223
  -233
  -244
  -255
  -267
  -279
  -292
  -306
  -320
  -335
  -351
  -368
  -386
  -405
  -424
EBITDA, $m
  126
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
Interest expense (income), $m
  20
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
Earnings before tax, $m
  13
  -160
  -163
  -167
  -172
  -177
  -182
  -189
  -195
  -202
  -210
  -215
  -223
  -233
  -243
  -253
  -264
  -276
  -288
  -302
  -316
  -330
  -346
  -362
  -379
  -398
  -417
  -437
  -458
  -480
  -504
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  13
  -160
  -163
  -167
  -172
  -177
  -182
  -189
  -195
  -202
  -210
  -215
  -223
  -233
  -243
  -253
  -264
  -276
  -288
  -302
  -316
  -330
  -346
  -362
  -379
  -398
  -417
  -437
  -458
  -480
  -504

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,472
  1,499
  1,533
  1,573
  1,617
  1,666
  1,720
  1,779
  1,842
  1,910
  1,984
  2,062
  2,146
  2,235
  2,329
  2,430
  2,536
  2,649
  2,768
  2,894
  3,027
  3,168
  3,316
  3,472
  3,636
  3,809
  3,991
  4,183
  4,385
  4,597
  4,821
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,472
  1,499
  1,533
  1,573
  1,617
  1,666
  1,720
  1,779
  1,842
  1,910
  1,984
  2,062
  2,146
  2,235
  2,329
  2,430
  2,536
  2,649
  2,768
  2,894
  3,027
  3,168
  3,316
  3,472
  3,636
  3,809
  3,991
  4,183
  4,385
  4,597
  4,821
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
Average production assets, $m
  1,370
  1,397
  1,429
  1,466
  1,507
  1,553
  1,603
  1,658
  1,717
  1,781
  1,849
  1,922
  2,000
  2,083
  2,171
  2,265
  2,364
  2,469
  2,581
  2,698
  2,822
  2,953
  3,091
  3,236
  3,389
  3,551
  3,721
  3,899
  4,087
  4,285
  4,494
Working capital, $m
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
Total debt, $m
  685
  698
  716
  736
  758
  783
  810
  839
  871
  906
  943
  982
  1,024
  1,069
  1,117
  1,168
  1,221
  1,278
  1,338
  1,402
  1,469
  1,539
  1,614
  1,693
  1,776
  1,863
  1,955
  2,051
  2,153
  2,260
  2,373
Total liabilities, $m
  743
  755
  773
  793
  815
  840
  867
  896
  928
  963
  1,000
  1,039
  1,081
  1,126
  1,174
  1,225
  1,278
  1,335
  1,395
  1,459
  1,526
  1,596
  1,671
  1,750
  1,833
  1,920
  2,012
  2,108
  2,210
  2,317
  2,430
Total equity, $m
  730
  744
  761
  780
  802
  826
  853
  882
  914
  947
  984
  1,023
  1,064
  1,108
  1,155
  1,205
  1,258
  1,314
  1,373
  1,436
  1,502
  1,571
  1,645
  1,722
  1,803
  1,889
  1,980
  2,075
  2,175
  2,280
  2,391
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,473
  1,499
  1,534
  1,573
  1,617
  1,666
  1,720
  1,778
  1,842
  1,910
  1,984
  2,062
  2,145
  2,234
  2,329
  2,430
  2,536
  2,649
  2,768
  2,895
  3,028
  3,167
  3,316
  3,472
  3,636
  3,809
  3,992
  4,183
  4,385
  4,597
  4,821
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.938
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.950
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
  0.960
  0.960
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  13
  -160
  -163
  -167
  -172
  -177
  -182
  -189
  -195
  -202
  -210
  -215
  -223
  -233
  -243
  -253
  -264
  -276
  -288
  -302
  -316
  -330
  -346
  -362
  -379
  -398
  -417
  -437
  -458
  -480
  -504
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  92
  95
  97
  99
  102
  105
  108
  112
  116
  120
  124
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  155
  161
  169
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
  294
Funds from operations, $m
  83
  -65
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
Change in working capital, $m
  -21
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  104
  -65
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -152
  -160
  -167
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -212
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -90
  -91
  -93
  -96
  -99
  -102
  -105
  -108
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -161
  -169
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -232
  -243
  -255
  -267
  -280
New CAPEX, $m
  -51
  -27
  -32
  -37
  -41
  -46
  -50
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -198
  -208
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -51
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -167
  -176
  -184
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -236
  -247
  -260
  -272
  -286
  -300
  -315
  -331
  -347
  -365
  -383
  -402
  -422
  -443
  -465
  -488
Free cash flow, $m
  53
  -182
  -190
  -198
  -207
  -217
  -226
  -237
  -248
  -259
  -271
  -284
  -297
  -311
  -326
  -342
  -358
  -376
  -394
  -413
  -433
  -454
  -476
  -500
  -524
  -550
  -578
  -606
  -636
  -668
  -701
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -44
  13
  17
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  81
  173
  180
  187
  194
  201
  209
  218
  227
  236
  246
  253
  265
  277
  290
  303
  317
  332
  348
  364
  382
  400
  419
  440
  461
  483
  507
  532
  558
  585
  614
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  35
  186
  197
  207
  216
  226
  236
  248
  259
  270
  283
  293
  307
  322
  338
  354
  371
  389
  408
  427
  449
  471
  494
  519
  544
  570
  599
  629
  660
  692
  727
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  88
  5
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -12
  -173
  -180
  -187
  -194
  -201
  -209
  -218
  -227
  -236
  -246
  -253
  -265
  -277
  -290
  -303
  -317
  -332
  -348
  -364
  -382
  -400
  -419
  -440
  -461
  -483
  -507
  -532
  -558
  -585
  -614
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -168
  -173
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -244
  -255
  -266
  -278
  -291
  -305
  -319
  -334
  -349
  -366
  -383
  -402
  -421
  -442
  -463
  -486
  -509
  -534
  -561
  -588
Discount rate, %
 
  8.00
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -156
  -147
  -139
  -130
  -121
  -111
  -102
  -92
  -82
  -73
  -63
  -55
  -47
  -39
  -32
  -26
  -21
  -16
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  86.3
  74.2
  63.8
  54.7
  46.8
  40.0
  34.2
  29.2
  24.9
  21.2
  18.1
  15.4
  13.1
  11.2
  9.5
  8.1
  6.9
  5.8
  4.9
  4.2
  3.6
  3.0
  2.6
  2.2
  1.8
  1.6
  1.3
  1.1
  1.0
  0.8

USA Compression Partners, LP provides natural gas compression services under term contracts with customers in the oil and gas industry in the United States. It engineers, designs, operates, services, and repairs its compression units and maintains related support inventory and equipment. The company provides compression services in various shale plays, including the Utica, Marcellus, Permian Basin, Eagle Ford, Mississippi Lime, Granite Wash, Woodford, Barnett, Haynesville, Niobrara, and Fayetteville shales. As of December 31, 2016, it had approximately 1,720,547 of horsepower in its fleet. The company serves oil companies; and independent producers, processors, gatherers, and transporters of natural gas and crude oil. USA Compression GP, LLC operates as the general partner of USA Compression Partners, LP. The company was formerly known as Compression Holdings, LP, and changed its name to USA Compression Partners, LP in June 2011. USA Compression Partners, LP was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas. USA Compression Partners, LP is a subsidiary of USA Compression Holdings, LLC.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  USA Compression Partners (USAC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 68.7
Price to Sales 3.4
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -81.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -20.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 93.8%
Total Debt to Equity 93.8%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Return On Total Capital 0.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.6%
Return On Equity 1.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.9%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 66.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.6%
EBITDA Margin 47%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.8%
Operating Margin 12.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.4%
Net Profit Margin 4.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.6%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Payout Ratio 676.9%

USAC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the USAC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $266 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by USA Compression Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of USA Compression Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our USAC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8%, whose default value for USAC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of USA Compression Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of USA Compression Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of USAC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 150%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for USAC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for USA Compression Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for USA Compression Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the USAC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for USAC are equal to 515%.

Life of production assets of 15.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in USA Compression Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for USAC is equal to 6.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $730 million for USA Compression Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 74.095 million for USA Compression Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of USA Compression Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ MLP Winners Last Week   [03:54PM  Market Realist]
▶ These MLPs Fell More than 5% Last Week   [Aug-08-17 12:28PM  Market Realist]
▶ USA Compression misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-04-17 09:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ USA Compression misses 1Q profit forecasts   [May-04-17 06:28AM  Associated Press]
▶ USA Compression Announces 2016 K-1 Tax Package Availability   [Mar-01-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ USA Compression beats 4Q profit forecasts   [06:17AM  Associated Press]
▶ USAC and CCLP Focus on Reducing Leverage   [Jan-18-17 10:36AM  Market Realist]
▶ Why Shares of USA Compression Partners Plunged 10% Today   [Dec-09-16 11:57AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Stay Away! 3 Dividend Stocks That Are Yield Traps   [Oct-29-16 08:00AM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of USAC Financial statements of USAC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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