Intrinsic value of USA Truck - USAK

Previous Close

$20.49

  Intrinsic Value

$18.23

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-11%

Previous close

$20.49

 
Intrinsic value

$18.23

 
Up/down potential

-11%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of USAK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -15.55
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.62
  7.36
  7.13
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.39
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.82
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
Revenue, $m
  429
  466
  504
  544
  586
  629
  674
  720
  769
  819
  871
  926
  983
  1,042
  1,103
  1,168
  1,235
  1,305
  1,378
  1,454
  1,534
  1,617
  1,704
  1,796
  1,891
  1,991
  2,096
  2,205
  2,320
  2,441
  2,567
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  289
  313
  337
  363
  390
  418
  447
  477
  508
  540
  574
  609
  646
  684
  724
  765
  809
  854
  901
  951
  1,003
  1,057
  1,113
  1,172
  1,234
  1,299
  1,367
  1,439
  1,513
  1,591
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  179
  184
  188
  193
  198
  203
  208
  213
  219
  224
  230
  235
  241
  247
  253
  260
  266
  273
  280
  287
  294
  301
  309
  317
  324
  333
  341
  349
  358
  367
Total operating expenses, $m
  437
  468
  497
  525
  556
  588
  621
  655
  690
  727
  764
  804
  844
  887
  931
  977
  1,025
  1,075
  1,127
  1,181
  1,238
  1,297
  1,358
  1,422
  1,489
  1,558
  1,632
  1,708
  1,788
  1,871
  1,958
Operating income, $m
  -8
  -2
  8
  18
  29
  41
  53
  66
  79
  93
  107
  122
  138
  155
  172
  190
  209
  229
  251
  273
  296
  321
  346
  374
  402
  432
  464
  497
  532
  569
  608
EBITDA, $m
  22
  30
  43
  57
  71
  85
  100
  116
  133
  150
  168
  187
  207
  228
  250
  272
  296
  321
  347
  375
  404
  434
  466
  500
  535
  572
  611
  652
  695
  741
  789
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
Earnings before tax, $m
  -11
  -8
  2
  12
  22
  33
  44
  56
  68
  81
  94
  108
  123
  139
  155
  172
  190
  209
  228
  249
  271
  294
  318
  344
  370
  399
  428
  460
  493
  528
  564
Tax expense, $m
  -3
  0
  1
  3
  6
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  25
  29
  33
  37
  42
  46
  51
  56
  62
  67
  73
  79
  86
  93
  100
  108
  116
  124
  133
  142
  152
Net income, $m
  -8
  -8
  1
  9
  16
  24
  32
  41
  50
  59
  69
  79
  90
  101
  113
  126
  139
  152
  167
  182
  198
  215
  232
  251
  270
  291
  313
  336
  360
  385
  412

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  295
  320
  347
  374
  403
  432
  463
  495
  529
  563
  599
  637
  676
  716
  759
  803
  849
  897
  947
  1,000
  1,055
  1,112
  1,172
  1,235
  1,301
  1,369
  1,441
  1,517
  1,596
  1,679
  1,765
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  295
  320
  347
  374
  403
  432
  463
  495
  529
  563
  599
  637
  676
  716
  759
  803
  849
  897
  947
  1,000
  1,055
  1,112
  1,172
  1,235
  1,301
  1,369
  1,441
  1,517
  1,596
  1,679
  1,765
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.454
  1.456
  1.452
  1.455
  1.454
  1.456
  1.456
  1.455
  1.454
  1.455
  1.454
  1.454
  1.454
  1.455
  1.453
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.454
  1.454
  1.454
  1.454
  1.454
  1.453
  1.454
  1.455
  1.454
  1.454
  1.454
  1.454
Average production assets, $m
  214
  232
  252
  272
  292
  314
  336
  359
  384
  409
  435
  462
  490
  520
  551
  583
  616
  651
  687
  726
  765
  807
  850
  896
  944
  994
  1,046
  1,101
  1,158
  1,218
  1,281
Working capital, $m
  16
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  125
  131
  138
  146
  153
  161
  170
  179
  188
  198
Total debt, $m
  148
  168
  190
  212
  234
  258
  283
  309
  335
  363
  392
  422
  454
  486
  520
  556
  593
  631
  672
  714
  758
  804
  852
  903
  955
  1,011
  1,068
  1,129
  1,192
  1,259
  1,329
Total liabilities, $m
  237
  257
  279
  301
  323
  347
  372
  398
  424
  452
  481
  511
  543
  575
  609
  645
  682
  720
  761
  803
  847
  893
  941
  992
  1,044
  1,100
  1,157
  1,218
  1,281
  1,348
  1,418
Total equity, $m
  58
  63
  68
  74
  79
  85
  91
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  197
  208
  219
  231
  243
  256
  270
  284
  299
  314
  331
  348
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  295
  320
  347
  375
  402
  432
  463
  496
  528
  563
  599
  636
  676
  716
  758
  803
  849
  897
  948
  1,000
  1,055
  1,112
  1,172
  1,235
  1,300
  1,370
  1,441
  1,517
  1,595
  1,679
  1,766
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.552
  2.670
  2.770
  2.870
  2.950
  3.030
  3.100
  3.160
  3.220
  3.270
  3.320
  3.370
  3.410
  3.450
  3.480
  3.510
  3.540
  3.570
  3.600
  3.620
  3.650
  3.670
  3.690
  3.710
  3.730
  3.750
  3.760
  3.780
  3.790
  3.810
  3.820
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -8
  -8
  1
  9
  16
  24
  32
  41
  50
  59
  69
  79
  90
  101
  113
  126
  139
  152
  167
  182
  198
  215
  232
  251
  270
  291
  313
  336
  360
  385
  412
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  147
  155
  163
  172
  180
Funds from operations, $m
  18
  25
  37
  47
  57
  68
  79
  91
  104
  117
  130
  144
  159
  174
  191
  208
  225
  244
  264
  284
  306
  328
  352
  377
  403
  431
  460
  491
  523
  557
  592
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
Cash from operations, $m
  22
  22
  34
  44
  54
  65
  76
  88
  100
  113
  126
  140
  155
  170
  186
  203
  220
  239
  258
  278
  300
  322
  345
  370
  396
  423
  452
  482
  514
  547
  583
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
New CAPEX, $m
  -60
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -34
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -212
  -223
  -235
Free cash flow, $m
  -12
  -26
  -18
  -12
  -5
  2
  9
  17
  25
  34
  42
  52
  61
  71
  82
  93
  105
  117
  130
  143
  158
  172
  188
  205
  222
  241
  260
  280
  302
  324
  348
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  40
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  63
  66
  70
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -28
  13
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  12
  33
  25
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  63
  66
  70
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  7
  7
  10
  18
  26
  34
  43
  52
  61
  71
  82
  93
  104
  116
  129
  142
  156
  170
  185
  202
  219
  236
  255
  275
  296
  318
  341
  365
  391
  418
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  36
  -13
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -6
  2
  5
  12
  20
  28
  37
  45
  55
  64
  74
  85
  96
  108
  120
  133
  146
  160
  175
  191
  207
  225
  243
  262
  282
  303
  326
  350
  374
  401
Discount rate, %
 
  10.30
  10.82
  11.36
  11.92
  12.52
  13.15
  13.80
  14.49
  15.22
  15.98
  16.78
  17.62
  18.50
  19.42
  20.39
  21.41
  22.48
  23.61
  24.79
  26.03
  27.33
  28.70
  30.13
  31.64
  33.22
  34.88
  36.62
  38.45
  40.38
  42.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -5
  1
  4
  8
  11
  13
  15
  15
  15
  15
  13
  12
  11
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.1
  91.2
  91.2
  91.2
  91.2
  91.2
  91.2
  91.2
  91.2
  91.2
  91.2
  91.2
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USA Truck, Inc. is a truckload carrier providing transportation of general commodities throughout the continental United States and into and out of portions of Mexico and Canada. The Company operates through two segments: Trucking and Strategic Capacity Solutions (SCS). The Trucking segment consists of truckload and dedicated freight services. The SCS segment consists of freight brokerage and rail intermodal services. The Company transports full dry van trailer loads of freight from origin to destination without intermediate stops or handling. The Company offers a range of truckload and logistics services to a customer base that spans a range of industries. The Company's fleet of approximately 1,832 tractors consists of 1,568 company tractors and 264 independent contractor tractors. The Company owns approximately 6,200 trailers. The Company also transports general commodities into and out of Mexico by allowing through-trailer service from its terminal in Laredo, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  USA Truck (USAK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -21.3
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -15.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -9.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 35.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 225.9%
Total Debt to Equity 255.2%
Interest Coverage -3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Return On Total Capital -4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Equity -10.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 55.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.7%
EBITDA Margin 5.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Operating Margin -1.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Net Profit Margin -1.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Effective Tax Rate 27.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

USAK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the USAK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $429 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by USA Truck. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of USA Truck. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our USAK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.3%, whose default value for USAK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of USA Truck, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of USA Truck.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of USAK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 62%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $175 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for USAK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for USA Truck.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for USA Truck. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the USAK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for USAK are equal to 49.9%.

Life of production assets of 7.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in USA Truck operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for USAK is equal to 7.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $58 million for USA Truck - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 8.347 million for USA Truck is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of USA Truck at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to USA Truck, Inc. : December 19, 2017   [Dec-19-17 01:59PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to USA Truck, Inc. : November 30, 2017   [Nov-30-17 02:34PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to USA Truck, Inc. : November 20, 2017   [Nov-20-17 01:30PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to USA Truck, Inc. : November 9, 2017   [Nov-09-17 01:20PM  Capital Cube]
▶ USA Truck beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Nov-06-17 05:39AM  Associated Press]
▶ USA Truck Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Nov-02-17 05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to USA Truck, Inc. : October 23, 2017   [Oct-23-17 11:12AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to USA Truck, Inc. : October 3, 2017   [Oct-03-17 11:41AM  Capital Cube]
▶ USA Truck reports 2Q loss   [05:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ USA Truck Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-02-17 05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to USA Truck, Inc. : July 10, 2017   [Jul-10-17 03:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to USA Truck, Inc. : May 22, 2017   [May-22-17 02:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to USA Truck, Inc. : May 11, 2017   [May-11-17 05:42PM  Capital Cube]
▶ USA Truck reports 1Q loss   [07:20AM  Associated Press]
▶ USA Truck Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ USA Truck to Announce First-Quarter Results on May 3, 2017   [Apr-21-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to USA Truck, Inc. : April 17, 2017   [Apr-17-17 01:10PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to USA Truck, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:39PM  Capital Cube]
▶ USA Truck's Troubles Could Invite Activist Scrutiny, Again   [Feb-08-17 04:35PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ USA Truck reports 4Q loss   [Feb-07-17 07:36AM  Associated Press]
▶ How Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-15-16 06:28PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ USA Truck Reports Third Quarter 2016 Results   [07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ USA Truck Reports First Quarter 2016 Results   [07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ USA Truck Renames Its Asset-Light Business USAT Logistics   [Apr-26-16 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ USA Truck to Announce First-Quarter Results on May 5, 2016   [Apr-11-16 08:30AM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of USAK
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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