Intrinsic value of USA Truck - USAK

Previous Close

$9.40

  Intrinsic Value

$1.71

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-82%

  Value-price divergence*

-27%

Previous close

$9.40

 
Intrinsic value

$1.71

 
Up/down potential

-82%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-27%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of USAK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -15.55
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  429
  438
  448
  459
  472
  486
  502
  519
  538
  558
  579
  602
  626
  652
  680
  709
  740
  773
  808
  845
  884
  925
  968
  1,013
  1,061
  1,112
  1,165
  1,221
  1,280
  1,342
  1,407
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  271
  278
  285
  293
  302
  311
  322
  333
  346
  359
  373
  388
  404
  422
  440
  459
  479
  501
  524
  548
  573
  600
  628
  658
  689
  722
  757
  794
  832
  872
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  179
  184
  188
  193
  198
  203
  208
  213
  219
  224
  230
  235
  241
  247
  253
  260
  266
  273
  280
  287
  294
  301
  309
  317
  324
  333
  341
  349
  358
  367
Total operating expenses, $m
  437
  450
  462
  473
  486
  500
  514
  530
  546
  565
  583
  603
  623
  645
  669
  693
  719
  745
  774
  804
  835
  867
  901
  937
  975
  1,013
  1,055
  1,098
  1,143
  1,190
  1,239
Operating income, $m
  -8
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -4
  -1
  3
  7
  11
  16
  22
  28
  34
  41
  49
  57
  67
  76
  87
  98
  110
  123
  137
  152
  168
EBITDA, $m
  22
  9
  9
  9
  10
  11
  13
  15
  18
  21
  25
  29
  34
  39
  45
  51
  59
  66
  74
  83
  93
  104
  115
  127
  140
  154
  168
  184
  201
  219
  238
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
Earnings before tax, $m
  -11
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -16
  -14
  -12
  -9
  -6
  -2
  2
  6
  11
  16
  22
  29
  36
  43
  52
  61
  70
  81
  92
  104
  117
  130
  145
Tax expense, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  39
Net income, $m
  -8
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -16
  -14
  -12
  -9
  -6
  -2
  1
  4
  8
  12
  16
  21
  26
  32
  38
  44
  51
  59
  67
  76
  85
  95
  106

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  295
  301
  308
  316
  325
  335
  345
  357
  370
  384
  398
  414
  431
  449
  468
  488
  509
  532
  556
  581
  608
  636
  666
  697
  730
  765
  801
  840
  880
  923
  968
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  295
  301
  308
  316
  325
  335
  345
  357
  370
  384
  398
  414
  431
  449
  468
  488
  509
  532
  556
  581
  608
  636
  666
  697
  730
  765
  801
  840
  880
  923
  968
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.454
  1.455
  1.455
  1.453
  1.452
  1.451
  1.455
  1.454
  1.454
  1.453
  1.455
  1.454
  1.452
  1.452
  1.453
  1.453
  1.454
  1.453
  1.453
  1.454
  1.454
  1.454
  1.453
  1.453
  1.453
  1.454
  1.454
  1.454
  1.455
  1.454
  1.454
Average production assets, $m
  214
  218
  223
  229
  236
  243
  251
  259
  268
  278
  289
  300
  313
  326
  339
  354
  369
  386
  403
  422
  441
  461
  483
  506
  530
  555
  581
  609
  639
  670
  702
Working capital, $m
  16
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
Total debt, $m
  148
  153
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  198
  208
  219
  231
  243
  257
  271
  287
  303
  320
  338
  357
  378
  399
  422
  446
  471
  497
  525
  554
  585
  618
  652
  688
Total liabilities, $m
  237
  242
  247
  254
  261
  269
  277
  287
  297
  308
  320
  332
  346
  360
  376
  392
  409
  427
  446
  467
  488
  511
  535
  560
  586
  614
  643
  674
  707
  741
  777
Total equity, $m
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  76
  78
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  182
  191
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  295
  301
  308
  316
  325
  335
  345
  357
  370
  384
  398
  414
  431
  448
  468
  488
  509
  532
  555
  581
  608
  636
  666
  697
  730
  765
  801
  839
  880
  923
  968
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.552
  2.570
  2.610
  2.650
  2.680
  2.730
  2.770
  2.810
  2.850
  2.900
  2.940
  2.980
  3.030
  3.070
  3.110
  3.150
  3.190
  3.230
  3.260
  3.300
  3.330
  3.370
  3.400
  3.430
  3.460
  3.490
  3.510
  3.540
  3.560
  3.590
  3.610
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -8
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -16
  -14
  -12
  -9
  -6
  -2
  1
  4
  8
  12
  16
  21
  26
  32
  38
  44
  51
  59
  67
  76
  85
  95
  106
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  30
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
Funds from operations, $m
  18
  4
  3
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  17
  21
  25
  30
  35
  40
  45
  51
  57
  63
  70
  78
  86
  95
  104
  114
  125
  137
  149
  162
  176
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  22
  3
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  7
  10
  12
  16
  19
  24
  28
  33
  38
  43
  48
  54
  60
  67
  75
  83
  91
  101
  110
  121
  132
  144
  157
  171
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
New CAPEX, $m
  -60
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -34
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
Free cash flow, $m
  -12
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -26
  -26
  -24
  -23
  -21
  -19
  -16
  -13
  -11
  -8
  -5
  -2
  2
  6
  10
  15
  20
  26
  32
  39
  46
  54
  62
  71
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  40
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -28
  20
  20
  21
  21
  21
  21
  20
  18
  17
  15
  12
  9
  6
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  12
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  29
  28
  28
  27
  25
  22
  20
  18
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  9
  13
  17
  22
  27
  33
  39
  45
  53
  60
  68
  77
  87
  97
  107
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  36
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -20
  -18
  -17
  -15
  -12
  -9
  -6
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -8
  -5
  -2
  1
  1
  5
  8
  12
  17
  22
  27
  33
  39
  46
  53
  61
  70
  79
  88
  99
Discount rate, %
 
  10.30
  10.82
  11.36
  11.92
  12.52
  13.15
  13.80
  14.49
  15.22
  15.98
  16.78
  17.62
  18.50
  19.42
  20.39
  21.41
  22.48
  23.61
  24.79
  26.03
  27.33
  28.70
  30.13
  31.64
  33.22
  34.88
  36.62
  38.45
  40.38
  42.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -16
  -15
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  80.3
  64.2
  51.3
  41.1
  33.1
  27.0
  22.3
  18.8
  16.1
  14.1
  12.7
  11.7
  11.2
  11.0
  11.0
  11.0
  11.0
  11.0
  11.0
  11.0
  11.0
  11.0
  11.0
  11.0
  11.0
  11.0
  11.0
  11.0
  11.0
  11.0

USA Truck, Inc., a truckload carrier, provides general commodities transportation services in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. It transports full dry van trailer loads of freight from origin to destination. The company operates through two segments, Trucking and Strategic Capacity Solutions. The Trucking segment offers truckload services as a medium- to long-haul common carrier; and dedicated freight services. The Strategic Capacity Solutions segment provides freight brokerage and rail intermodal services. As of December 31, 2015, the company’s fleet included 1,832 tractors; and 6,200 trailers. USA Truck, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Van Buren, Arkansas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  USA Truck (USAK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -9.8
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -2.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -15.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -9.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 35.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 225.9%
Total Debt to Equity 255.2%
Interest Coverage -3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Return On Total Capital -4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Equity -10.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 55.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.7%
EBITDA Margin 5.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Operating Margin -1.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Net Profit Margin -1.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Effective Tax Rate 27.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

USAK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the USAK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $429 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by USA Truck. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of USA Truck. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our USAK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.3%, whose default value for USAK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of USA Truck, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of USA Truck.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of USAK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 62%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $175 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for USAK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for USA Truck.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for USA Truck. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the USAK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for USAK are equal to 49.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in USA Truck operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for USAK is equal to 7.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $58 million for USA Truck - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 8.495 million for USA Truck is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of USA Truck at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ USA Truck reports 2Q loss   [05:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ USA Truck Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-02-17 05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to USA Truck, Inc. : July 10, 2017   [Jul-10-17 03:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to USA Truck, Inc. : May 22, 2017   [May-22-17 02:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to USA Truck, Inc. : May 11, 2017   [May-11-17 05:42PM  Capital Cube]
▶ USA Truck reports 1Q loss   [07:20AM  Associated Press]
▶ USA Truck Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ USA Truck to Announce First-Quarter Results on May 3, 2017   [Apr-21-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to USA Truck, Inc. : April 17, 2017   [Apr-17-17 01:10PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to USA Truck, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:39PM  Capital Cube]
▶ USA Truck's Troubles Could Invite Activist Scrutiny, Again   [Feb-08-17 04:35PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ USA Truck reports 4Q loss   [Feb-07-17 07:36AM  Associated Press]
▶ How Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-15-16 06:28PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ USA Truck Reports Third Quarter 2016 Results   [07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ USA Truck Reports First Quarter 2016 Results   [07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ USA Truck Renames Its Asset-Light Business USAT Logistics   [Apr-26-16 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ USA Truck to Announce First-Quarter Results on May 5, 2016   [Apr-11-16 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ USA Truck Appoints DHL Veteran as CEO   [03:36PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Stock chart of USAK Financial statements of USAK
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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