Intrinsic value of Universal Stainless&Alloy Products - USAP

Previous Close

$22.61

  Intrinsic Value

$6.30

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-72%

Previous close

$22.61

 
Intrinsic value

$6.30

 
Up/down potential

-72%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of USAP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -14.92
  27.50
  25.25
  23.23
  21.40
  19.76
  18.29
  16.96
  15.76
  14.69
  13.72
  12.85
  12.06
  11.35
  10.72
  10.15
  9.63
  9.17
  8.75
  8.38
  8.04
  7.74
  7.46
  7.22
  6.99
  6.79
  6.62
  6.45
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
Revenue, $m
  154
  196
  246
  303
  368
  441
  521
  610
  706
  809
  920
  1,038
  1,164
  1,296
  1,435
  1,580
  1,733
  1,891
  2,057
  2,229
  2,409
  2,595
  2,788
  2,990
  3,199
  3,416
  3,642
  3,877
  4,122
  4,376
  4,642
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  230
  287
  354
  430
  515
  609
  713
  825
  946
  1,076
  1,214
  1,360
  1,515
  1,677
  1,847
  2,025
  2,211
  2,405
  2,606
  2,816
  3,033
  3,260
  3,495
  3,739
  3,993
  4,258
  4,532
  4,818
  5,116
  5,426
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  158
  230
  287
  354
  430
  515
  609
  713
  825
  946
  1,076
  1,214
  1,360
  1,515
  1,677
  1,847
  2,025
  2,211
  2,405
  2,606
  2,816
  3,033
  3,260
  3,495
  3,739
  3,993
  4,258
  4,532
  4,818
  5,116
  5,426
Operating income, $m
  -4
  -33
  -42
  -51
  -62
  -74
  -88
  -103
  -119
  -137
  -156
  -176
  -197
  -219
  -242
  -267
  -293
  -320
  -348
  -377
  -407
  -439
  -471
  -505
  -541
  -577
  -616
  -655
  -697
  -740
  -784
EBITDA, $m
  15
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -37
  -42
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -66
  -72
  -79
  -86
  -94
  -102
  -110
  -118
  -127
  -137
  -146
  -156
  -166
  -177
  -188
  -200
  -212
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  12
  14
  17
  19
  23
  26
  29
  33
  37
  41
  46
  50
  55
  60
  65
  70
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  107
  114
  122
  129
Earnings before tax, $m
  -9
  -36
  -46
  -57
  -70
  -84
  -100
  -117
  -136
  -156
  -178
  -201
  -226
  -252
  -280
  -308
  -338
  -370
  -403
  -437
  -472
  -509
  -547
  -587
  -628
  -671
  -716
  -763
  -811
  -861
  -914
Tax expense, $m
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -5
  -36
  -46
  -57
  -70
  -84
  -100
  -117
  -136
  -156
  -178
  -201
  -226
  -252
  -280
  -308
  -338
  -370
  -403
  -437
  -472
  -509
  -547
  -587
  -628
  -671
  -716
  -763
  -811
  -861
  -914

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  296
  378
  473
  583
  708
  847
  1,002
  1,172
  1,357
  1,556
  1,770
  1,997
  2,238
  2,492
  2,759
  3,039
  3,332
  3,637
  3,956
  4,287
  4,632
  4,990
  5,362
  5,749
  6,152
  6,570
  7,004
  7,456
  7,927
  8,416
  8,926
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  296
  378
  473
  583
  708
  847
  1,002
  1,172
  1,357
  1,556
  1,770
  1,997
  2,238
  2,492
  2,759
  3,039
  3,332
  3,637
  3,956
  4,287
  4,632
  4,990
  5,362
  5,749
  6,152
  6,570
  7,004
  7,456
  7,927
  8,416
  8,926
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.520
  0.519
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.521
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
Average production assets, $m
  188
  240
  300
  370
  449
  538
  636
  744
  862
  988
  1,124
  1,268
  1,421
  1,582
  1,752
  1,930
  2,115
  2,309
  2,512
  2,722
  2,941
  3,168
  3,405
  3,650
  3,906
  4,171
  4,447
  4,734
  5,033
  5,344
  5,667
Working capital, $m
  85
  98
  123
  152
  184
  220
  261
  305
  353
  405
  460
  519
  582
  648
  717
  790
  866
  946
  1,029
  1,115
  1,204
  1,297
  1,394
  1,495
  1,599
  1,708
  1,821
  1,939
  2,061
  2,188
  2,321
Total debt, $m
  73
  105
  142
  185
  233
  288
  348
  414
  486
  563
  646
  735
  829
  927
  1,031
  1,140
  1,254
  1,373
  1,497
  1,626
  1,760
  1,899
  2,044
  2,195
  2,351
  2,514
  2,683
  2,858
  3,041
  3,232
  3,430
Total liabilities, $m
  115
  147
  184
  227
  275
  330
  390
  456
  528
  605
  688
  777
  871
  969
  1,073
  1,182
  1,296
  1,415
  1,539
  1,668
  1,802
  1,941
  2,086
  2,237
  2,393
  2,556
  2,725
  2,900
  3,083
  3,274
  3,472
Total equity, $m
  181
  231
  289
  356
  432
  518
  612
  716
  829
  951
  1,081
  1,220
  1,367
  1,523
  1,686
  1,857
  2,036
  2,222
  2,417
  2,619
  2,830
  3,049
  3,276
  3,513
  3,759
  4,014
  4,280
  4,556
  4,843
  5,142
  5,454
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  296
  378
  473
  583
  707
  848
  1,002
  1,172
  1,357
  1,556
  1,769
  1,997
  2,238
  2,492
  2,759
  3,039
  3,332
  3,637
  3,956
  4,287
  4,632
  4,990
  5,362
  5,750
  6,152
  6,570
  7,005
  7,456
  7,926
  8,416
  8,926
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.403
  0.450
  0.490
  0.520
  0.540
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611
  0.611

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -5
  -36
  -46
  -57
  -70
  -84
  -100
  -117
  -136
  -156
  -178
  -201
  -226
  -252
  -280
  -308
  -338
  -370
  -403
  -437
  -472
  -509
  -547
  -587
  -628
  -671
  -716
  -763
  -811
  -861
  -914
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  19
  24
  30
  37
  45
  54
  64
  75
  87
  100
  113
  128
  144
  160
  177
  195
  214
  233
  254
  275
  297
  320
  344
  369
  395
  421
  449
  478
  508
  540
  572
Funds from operations, $m
  5
  -12
  -15
  -20
  -24
  -29
  -35
  -42
  -49
  -56
  -65
  -73
  -83
  -92
  -103
  -113
  -125
  -137
  -149
  -162
  -175
  -189
  -203
  -218
  -234
  -250
  -267
  -284
  -303
  -322
  -341
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  21
  25
  29
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  122
  127
  133
Cash from operations, $m
  8
  -33
  -40
  -48
  -57
  -66
  -76
  -86
  -97
  -108
  -120
  -132
  -145
  -158
  -172
  -186
  -201
  -216
  -232
  -248
  -265
  -282
  -300
  -319
  -338
  -359
  -380
  -402
  -425
  -449
  -474
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -19
  -24
  -30
  -37
  -45
  -54
  -64
  -75
  -87
  -100
  -113
  -128
  -144
  -160
  -177
  -195
  -214
  -233
  -254
  -275
  -297
  -320
  -344
  -369
  -395
  -421
  -449
  -478
  -508
  -540
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -52
  -61
  -70
  -79
  -89
  -98
  -108
  -117
  -127
  -136
  -144
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -194
  -202
  -210
  -219
  -227
  -236
  -246
  -255
  -265
  -276
  -287
  -299
  -311
  -324
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  -71
  -85
  -100
  -116
  -134
  -152
  -172
  -192
  -214
  -236
  -257
  -281
  -305
  -330
  -355
  -381
  -408
  -435
  -464
  -494
  -524
  -556
  -590
  -624
  -660
  -697
  -736
  -777
  -819
  -864
Free cash flow, $m
  5
  -104
  -125
  -148
  -173
  -200
  -228
  -258
  -289
  -322
  -355
  -390
  -426
  -463
  -501
  -541
  -582
  -624
  -667
  -712
  -758
  -807
  -857
  -908
  -962
  -1,019
  -1,077
  -1,138
  -1,202
  -1,268
  -1,337
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -6
  32
  37
  43
  49
  54
  60
  66
  72
  78
  83
  88
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  156
  163
  169
  176
  183
  190
  198
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  86
  104
  124
  146
  169
  194
  221
  249
  278
  308
  340
  373
  407
  443
  479
  517
  556
  597
  639
  683
  728
  775
  823
  874
  927
  982
  1,039
  1,098
  1,160
  1,225
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -6
  118
  141
  167
  195
  223
  254
  287
  321
  356
  391
  428
  467
  506
  547
  588
  631
  675
  721
  768
  817
  867
  920
  974
  1,030
  1,090
  1,151
  1,215
  1,281
  1,350
  1,423
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  76
  80
  83
  86
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  4
  -86
  -104
  -124
  -146
  -169
  -194
  -221
  -249
  -278
  -308
  -340
  -373
  -407
  -443
  -479
  -517
  -556
  -597
  -639
  -683
  -728
  -775
  -823
  -874
  -927
  -982
  -1,039
  -1,098
  -1,160
  -1,225
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -72
  -88
  -105
  -125
  -146
  -168
  -192
  -217
  -244
  -272
  -302
  -332
  -364
  -398
  -432
  -468
  -505
  -543
  -583
  -624
  -667
  -712
  -758
  -806
  -856
  -908
  -962
  -1,019
  -1,078
  -1,139
Discount rate, %
 
  6.80
  7.14
  7.50
  7.87
  8.27
  8.68
  9.11
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.21
  12.82
  13.46
  14.14
  14.84
  15.59
  16.37
  17.18
  18.04
  18.94
  19.89
  20.89
  21.93
  23.03
  24.18
  25.39
  26.66
  27.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -67
  -77
  -85
  -92
  -98
  -102
  -104
  -105
  -103
  -100
  -95
  -89
  -81
  -73
  -65
  -56
  -48
  -40
  -33
  -26
  -20
  -16
  -12
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  65.4
  43.5
  29.4
  20.2
  14.1
  9.9
  7.1
  5.1
  3.7
  2.7
  2.0
  1.5
  1.1
  0.9
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products, Inc. manufactures and markets semi-finished and finished specialty steel products, including stainless steel, nickel alloys, tool steel and certain other alloyed steels. The Company's manufacturing process involves melting, remelting, heat treating, hot and cold rolling, forging, machining and cold drawing of semi-finished and finished specialty steels. The Company also performs conversion services on materials supplied by customers. The Company's manufacturing locations include Bridgeville and Titusville, Pennsylvania; Dunkirk, New York, and North Jackson, Ohio. The Company produce a range of specialty steel grades using several manufacturing processes, including argon oxygen decarburization (AOD), electro-slag remelted (ESR), vacuum induction melting (VIM) and vacuum-arc remelted (VAR). It manufactures its products within the product lines, including Stainless Steel, High-Strength Low Alloy Steel, Tool Steel and High-Temperature Alloy Steel.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Universal Stainless&Alloy Products (USAP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -32.6
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 40.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -14.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -60%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -19.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 37.6%
Total Debt to Equity 40.3%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.8%
Return On Total Capital -1.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.7%
Return On Equity -2.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.8%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 9.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
EBITDA Margin 8.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Operating Margin -2.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -5.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.9%
Net Profit Margin -3.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.3%
Effective Tax Rate 44.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

USAP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the USAP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $154 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Universal Stainless&Alloy Products. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Universal Stainless&Alloy Products. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our USAP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 27.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.8%, whose default value for USAP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Universal Stainless&Alloy Products, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Universal Stainless&Alloy Products.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of USAP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 116.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for USAP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4% for Universal Stainless&Alloy Products.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Universal Stainless&Alloy Products. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the USAP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for USAP are equal to 122.1%.

Life of production assets of 9.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Universal Stainless&Alloy Products operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for USAP is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $181 million for Universal Stainless&Alloy Products - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 7.178 million for Universal Stainless&Alloy Products is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Universal Stainless&Alloy Products at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Universal Stainless reports 3Q loss   [06:57AM  Associated Press]
▶ Universal Stainless posts 2Q profit   [Jul-26-17 09:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Universal Stainless rejects unsolicited offer   [Jun-29-17 06:05PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Universal Stainless reports 1Q loss   [Apr-26-17 08:04AM  Associated Press]
▶ Universal Stainless Announces Stainless Base Price Increase   [Mar-20-17 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Universal Stainless reports 4Q loss   [07:25AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of USAP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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