Intrinsic value of U S Concrete - USCR

Previous Close

$76.05

  Intrinsic Value

$51.77

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-32%

Previous close

$76.05

 
Intrinsic value

$51.77

 
Up/down potential

-32%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of USCR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.79
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
Revenue, $m
  1,168
  1,260
  1,356
  1,456
  1,559
  1,667
  1,779
  1,895
  2,016
  2,142
  2,274
  2,410
  2,553
  2,701
  2,856
  3,018
  3,187
  3,363
  3,548
  3,741
  3,942
  4,153
  4,374
  4,605
  4,847
  5,101
  5,367
  5,645
  5,937
  6,243
  6,563
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,161
  1,248
  1,339
  1,433
  1,531
  1,633
  1,739
  1,849
  1,964
  2,084
  2,195
  2,324
  2,460
  2,601
  2,748
  2,902
  3,063
  3,231
  3,406
  3,590
  3,782
  3,983
  4,194
  4,414
  4,645
  4,887
  5,140
  5,406
  5,685
  5,977
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,093
  1,161
  1,248
  1,339
  1,433
  1,531
  1,633
  1,739
  1,849
  1,964
  2,084
  2,195
  2,324
  2,460
  2,601
  2,748
  2,902
  3,063
  3,231
  3,406
  3,590
  3,782
  3,983
  4,194
  4,414
  4,645
  4,887
  5,140
  5,406
  5,685
  5,977
Operating income, $m
  75
  99
  108
  117
  126
  136
  146
  156
  167
  178
  190
  215
  228
  241
  255
  270
  285
  301
  317
  334
  352
  371
  391
  412
  433
  456
  480
  505
  531
  558
  587
EBITDA, $m
  130
  159
  171
  183
  197
  210
  224
  239
  254
  270
  287
  304
  322
  340
  360
  380
  402
  424
  447
  471
  497
  523
  551
  580
  611
  643
  676
  711
  748
  787
  827
Interest expense (income), $m
  25
  30
  34
  38
  42
  47
  52
  56
  62
  67
  72
  78
  84
  90
  97
  103
  111
  118
  126
  134
  142
  151
  160
  170
  180
  190
  201
  213
  225
  238
  251
Earnings before tax, $m
  31
  70
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  118
  137
  144
  151
  159
  166
  174
  183
  192
  201
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  266
  278
  292
  306
  320
  335
Tax expense, $m
  21
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  91
Net income, $m
  9
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  76
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  945
  938
  1,009
  1,083
  1,160
  1,240
  1,324
  1,410
  1,500
  1,594
  1,692
  1,793
  1,899
  2,010
  2,125
  2,245
  2,371
  2,502
  2,640
  2,783
  2,933
  3,090
  3,255
  3,427
  3,607
  3,795
  3,993
  4,200
  4,417
  4,645
  4,883
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  869
  938
  1,009
  1,083
  1,160
  1,240
  1,324
  1,410
  1,500
  1,594
  1,692
  1,793
  1,899
  2,010
  2,125
  2,245
  2,371
  2,502
  2,640
  2,783
  2,933
  3,090
  3,255
  3,427
  3,607
  3,795
  3,993
  4,200
  4,417
  4,645
  4,883
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.344
  1.343
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
Average production assets, $m
  407
  439
  472
  507
  543
  580
  619
  660
  702
  746
  791
  839
  888
  940
  994
  1,050
  1,109
  1,170
  1,235
  1,302
  1,372
  1,445
  1,522
  1,603
  1,687
  1,775
  1,868
  1,964
  2,066
  2,172
  2,284
Working capital, $m
  71
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  66
Total debt, $m
  449
  490
  551
  614
  679
  747
  818
  892
  968
  1,048
  1,131
  1,217
  1,307
  1,401
  1,499
  1,602
  1,708
  1,820
  1,937
  2,059
  2,186
  2,320
  2,459
  2,606
  2,759
  2,919
  3,087
  3,263
  3,448
  3,641
  3,844
Total liabilities, $m
  757
  797
  858
  921
  986
  1,054
  1,125
  1,199
  1,275
  1,355
  1,438
  1,524
  1,614
  1,708
  1,806
  1,909
  2,015
  2,127
  2,244
  2,366
  2,493
  2,627
  2,766
  2,913
  3,066
  3,226
  3,394
  3,570
  3,755
  3,948
  4,151
Total equity, $m
  189
  141
  151
  162
  174
  186
  199
  212
  225
  239
  254
  269
  285
  301
  319
  337
  356
  375
  396
  417
  440
  464
  488
  514
  541
  569
  599
  630
  663
  697
  733
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  946
  938
  1,009
  1,083
  1,160
  1,240
  1,324
  1,411
  1,500
  1,594
  1,692
  1,793
  1,899
  2,009
  2,125
  2,246
  2,371
  2,502
  2,640
  2,783
  2,933
  3,091
  3,254
  3,427
  3,607
  3,795
  3,993
  4,200
  4,418
  4,645
  4,884
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.376
  3.480
  3.640
  3.780
  3.900
  4.020
  4.120
  4.220
  4.300
  4.380
  4.460
  4.530
  4.590
  4.650
  4.700
  4.760
  4.800
  4.850
  4.890
  4.930
  4.970
  5.000
  5.040
  5.070
  5.100
  5.130
  5.150
  5.180
  5.200
  5.230
  5.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.130
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  9
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  55
  59
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  88
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  169
  178
  187
  197
  207
  217
  229
  240
Funds from operations, $m
  99
  110
  117
  124
  132
  139
  147
  155
  164
  173
  182
  189
  199
  209
  220
  232
  244
  257
  270
  284
  298
  313
  329
  345
  363
  381
  400
  420
  441
  462
  485
Change in working capital, $m
  -13
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  112
  109
  116
  123
  131
  138
  146
  154
  163
  172
  181
  187
  197
  208
  219
  230
  242
  255
  268
  282
  296
  311
  327
  343
  360
  378
  397
  417
  438
  459
  482
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -229
New CAPEX, $m
  -40
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -112
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -163
  -75
  -79
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -229
  -240
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -294
  -309
  -323
  -341
Free cash flow, $m
  -51
  34
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  137
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  133
  140
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
  193
  203
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  122
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  133
  140
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
  193
  203
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  72
  92
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  188
  197
  207
  216
  227
  237
  249
  260
  273
  286
  299
  314
  329
  345
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -55
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  59
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  141
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  233
  244
  256
  268
  281
  295
  309
Discount rate, %
 
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.37
  29.79
  31.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  131
  74
  71
  68
  64
  60
  55
  51
  46
  41
  35
  31
  27
  22
  19
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

U.S. Concrete, Inc. is a producer of ready-mixed concrete in select geographic markets in the United States. The Company conducts its operations through two business segments: ready-mixed concrete and aggregate products. The ready-mixed concrete segment engages principally in the formulation, production and delivery of ready-mixed concrete to its customers' job sites. The aggregate products segment produces crushed stone, sand and gravel. The Company' other products include its building materials stores, hauling operations, aggregates distribution terminals, lime slurry, brokered product sales, a recycled aggregates operation, and concrete blocks. The Company also offers the ARIDUS Rapid Drying Concrete technology. As of December 20, 2017, the Company operated 165 standard ready-mixed concrete plants, 17 volumetric ready-mixed concrete plants, 18 producing aggregates facilities, three aggregates distribution terminals, two lime slurry facilities, and one recycled aggregates facility.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  U S Concrete (USCR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 132.7
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 6.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 19.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 60%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 228.6%
Total Debt to Equity 237.6%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Return On Total Capital 1.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Return On Equity 5.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.2%
EBITDA Margin 9.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Operating Margin 6.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Net Profit Margin 0.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Effective Tax Rate 67.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 17%
Payout Ratio 0%

USCR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the USCR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1168 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by U S Concrete. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of U S Concrete. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our USCR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.6%, whose default value for USCR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of U S Concrete, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of U S Concrete.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of USCR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for USCR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.9% for U S Concrete.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for U S Concrete. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the USCR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for USCR are equal to 34.8%.

Life of production assets of 9.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in U S Concrete operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for USCR is equal to 1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $189 million for U S Concrete - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.617 million for U S Concrete is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of U S Concrete at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ U.S. Concrete Getting Closer To Key Technical Measure   [Dec-26-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
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▶ U.S. Concrete misses Street 3Q forecasts   [Nov-03-17 06:25AM  Associated Press]
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▶ U.S. Concrete to Acquire Polaris Materials Corporation   [Sep-29-17 11:45AM  PR Newswire]
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▶ U.S. Concrete Announces Board Chairman Succession Plan   [Sep-20-17 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
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▶ U.S. Concrete reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 04:41PM  Associated Press]
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Financial statements of USCR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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