Intrinsic value of U S Concrete - USCR

Previous Close

$75.30

  Intrinsic Value

$127.02

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+69%

  Value-price divergence*

+81%

Previous close

$75.30

 
Intrinsic value

$127.02

 
Up/down potential

+69%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+81%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of USCR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.79
  23.60
  21.74
  20.07
  18.56
  17.20
  15.98
  14.88
  13.90
  13.01
  12.21
  11.49
  10.84
  10.25
  9.73
  9.26
  8.83
  8.45
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.04
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.34
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
Revenue, $m
  1,168
  1,444
  1,757
  2,110
  2,502
  2,932
  3,401
  3,907
  4,450
  5,029
  5,643
  6,291
  6,972
  7,687
  8,435
  9,216
  10,029
  10,877
  11,758
  12,674
  13,626
  14,616
  15,644
  16,713
  17,824
  18,979
  20,182
  21,433
  22,737
  24,095
  25,511
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,328
  1,614
  1,935
  2,291
  2,683
  3,110
  3,571
  4,066
  4,593
  5,152
  5,728
  6,349
  7,000
  7,681
  8,392
  9,133
  9,904
  10,707
  11,541
  12,408
  13,309
  14,245
  15,219
  16,230
  17,283
  18,378
  19,517
  20,704
  21,941
  23,230
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,093
  1,328
  1,614
  1,935
  2,291
  2,683
  3,110
  3,571
  4,066
  4,593
  5,152
  5,728
  6,349
  7,000
  7,681
  8,392
  9,133
  9,904
  10,707
  11,541
  12,408
  13,309
  14,245
  15,219
  16,230
  17,283
  18,378
  19,517
  20,704
  21,941
  23,230
Operating income, $m
  75
  116
  144
  175
  210
  249
  291
  336
  384
  436
  491
  562
  623
  687
  754
  824
  897
  972
  1,051
  1,133
  1,218
  1,306
  1,398
  1,494
  1,593
  1,696
  1,804
  1,916
  2,032
  2,154
  2,280
EBITDA, $m
  130
  182
  221
  266
  315
  370
  429
  492
  561
  634
  711
  793
  879
  969
  1,063
  1,161
  1,264
  1,371
  1,482
  1,597
  1,717
  1,842
  1,971
  2,106
  2,246
  2,392
  2,543
  2,701
  2,865
  3,036
  3,215
Interest expense (income), $m
  25
  30
  42
  56
  71
  88
  107
  127
  149
  173
  198
  225
  253
  283
  314
  347
  381
  416
  453
  492
  532
  573
  617
  661
  708
  757
  807
  860
  914
  971
  1,030
Earnings before tax, $m
  31
  86
  102
  120
  139
  161
  184
  209
  235
  263
  293
  337
  370
  404
  440
  477
  516
  556
  598
  641
  686
  733
  782
  832
  885
  940
  997
  1,056
  1,118
  1,183
  1,250
Tax expense, $m
  21
  23
  28
  32
  38
  43
  50
  56
  63
  71
  79
  91
  100
  109
  119
  129
  139
  150
  161
  173
  185
  198
  211
  225
  239
  254
  269
  285
  302
  319
  338
Net income, $m
  9
  63
  74
  87
  102
  117
  134
  152
  172
  192
  214
  246
  270
  295
  321
  348
  376
  406
  436
  468
  501
  535
  571
  608
  646
  686
  728
  771
  816
  863
  913

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  76
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  945
  1,074
  1,308
  1,570
  1,861
  2,182
  2,530
  2,907
  3,311
  3,742
  4,198
  4,681
  5,188
  5,720
  6,276
  6,857
  7,462
  8,093
  8,748
  9,430
  10,138
  10,875
  11,640
  12,435
  13,262
  14,121
  15,016
  15,947
  16,917
  17,928
  18,981
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  869
  1,074
  1,308
  1,570
  1,861
  2,182
  2,530
  2,907
  3,311
  3,742
  4,198
  4,681
  5,188
  5,720
  6,276
  6,857
  7,462
  8,093
  8,748
  9,430
  10,138
  10,875
  11,640
  12,435
  13,262
  14,121
  15,016
  15,947
  16,917
  17,928
  18,981
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.344
  1.345
  1.343
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
Average production assets, $m
  407
  502
  612
  734
  871
  1,020
  1,183
  1,360
  1,549
  1,750
  1,964
  2,189
  2,426
  2,675
  2,935
  3,207
  3,490
  3,785
  4,092
  4,411
  4,742
  5,086
  5,444
  5,816
  6,203
  6,605
  7,023
  7,459
  7,912
  8,385
  8,878
Working capital, $m
  71
  14
  18
  21
  25
  29
  34
  39
  44
  50
  56
  63
  70
  77
  84
  92
  100
  109
  118
  127
  136
  146
  156
  167
  178
  190
  202
  214
  227
  241
  255
Total debt, $m
  449
  606
  805
  1,028
  1,275
  1,547
  1,844
  2,164
  2,507
  2,873
  3,262
  3,671
  4,103
  4,555
  5,028
  5,521
  6,036
  6,572
  7,129
  7,709
  8,311
  8,936
  9,587
  10,263
  10,965
  11,696
  12,457
  13,248
  14,073
  14,932
  15,827
Total liabilities, $m
  757
  913
  1,112
  1,335
  1,582
  1,854
  2,151
  2,471
  2,814
  3,180
  3,569
  3,978
  4,410
  4,862
  5,335
  5,828
  6,343
  6,879
  7,436
  8,016
  8,618
  9,243
  9,894
  10,570
  11,272
  12,003
  12,764
  13,555
  14,380
  15,239
  16,134
Total equity, $m
  189
  161
  196
  236
  279
  327
  380
  436
  497
  561
  630
  702
  778
  858
  941
  1,029
  1,119
  1,214
  1,312
  1,415
  1,521
  1,631
  1,746
  1,865
  1,989
  2,118
  2,252
  2,392
  2,538
  2,689
  2,847
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  946
  1,074
  1,308
  1,571
  1,861
  2,181
  2,531
  2,907
  3,311
  3,741
  4,199
  4,680
  5,188
  5,720
  6,276
  6,857
  7,462
  8,093
  8,748
  9,431
  10,139
  10,874
  11,640
  12,435
  13,261
  14,121
  15,016
  15,947
  16,918
  17,928
  18,981
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.376
  3.760
  4.100
  4.360
  4.570
  4.730
  4.860
  4.960
  5.050
  5.120
  5.180
  5.230
  5.270
  5.310
  5.340
  5.370
  5.390
  5.410
  5.430
  5.450
  5.460
  5.480
  5.490
  5.500
  5.510
  5.520
  5.530
  5.540
  5.550
  5.550
  5.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.130
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  9
  63
  74
  87
  102
  117
  134
  152
  172
  192
  214
  246
  270
  295
  321
  348
  376
  406
  436
  468
  501
  535
  571
  608
  646
  686
  728
  771
  816
  863
  913
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  55
  66
  78
  91
  105
  121
  138
  156
  176
  198
  220
  230
  255
  282
  309
  338
  367
  398
  431
  464
  499
  535
  573
  612
  653
  695
  739
  785
  833
  883
  934
Funds from operations, $m
  99
  129
  152
  178
  207
  238
  272
  309
  348
  390
  434
  477
  525
  577
  630
  686
  744
  804
  867
  932
  1,000
  1,070
  1,144
  1,220
  1,299
  1,381
  1,467
  1,556
  1,649
  1,746
  1,847
Change in working capital, $m
  -13
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
Cash from operations, $m
  112
  126
  149
  175
  203
  234
  267
  304
  343
  384
  428
  470
  519
  569
  622
  678
  736
  796
  858
  923
  990
  1,061
  1,133
  1,209
  1,288
  1,370
  1,455
  1,544
  1,636
  1,732
  1,833
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -43
  -53
  -64
  -77
  -92
  -107
  -125
  -143
  -163
  -184
  -207
  -230
  -255
  -282
  -309
  -338
  -367
  -398
  -431
  -464
  -499
  -535
  -573
  -612
  -653
  -695
  -739
  -785
  -833
  -883
New CAPEX, $m
  -40
  -96
  -109
  -123
  -136
  -150
  -163
  -176
  -189
  -201
  -214
  -226
  -237
  -249
  -260
  -272
  -283
  -295
  -307
  -319
  -331
  -344
  -358
  -372
  -387
  -402
  -418
  -436
  -454
  -473
  -493
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -163
  -139
  -162
  -187
  -213
  -242
  -270
  -301
  -332
  -364
  -398
  -433
  -467
  -504
  -542
  -581
  -621
  -662
  -705
  -750
  -795
  -843
  -893
  -945
  -999
  -1,055
  -1,113
  -1,175
  -1,239
  -1,306
  -1,376
Free cash flow, $m
  -51
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -11
  -8
  -3
  3
  10
  19
  30
  38
  51
  65
  81
  97
  115
  133
  153
  173
  195
  217
  240
  264
  289
  315
  341
  369
  397
  427
  458
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  137
  174
  198
  223
  248
  272
  296
  320
  343
  366
  388
  410
  431
  452
  473
  494
  515
  536
  557
  579
  602
  626
  650
  676
  703
  731
  760
  792
  824
  859
  895
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  122
  174
  198
  223
  248
  272
  296
  320
  343
  366
  388
  410
  431
  452
  473
  494
  515
  536
  557
  579
  602
  626
  650
  676
  703
  731
  760
  792
  824
  859
  895
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  72
  162
  185
  210
  237
  265
  293
  323
  354
  385
  418
  448
  482
  517
  554
  591
  629
  669
  710
  753
  797
  843
  891
  940
  992
  1,046
  1,102
  1,160
  1,222
  1,286
  1,353
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -55
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -145
  -152
  -158
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  59
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  189
  150
  171
  193
  217
  241
  267
  293
  321
  349
  375
  406
  438
  470
  504
  539
  575
  612
  651
  691
  732
  776
  821
  868
  917
  968
  1,021
  1,076
  1,134
  1,195
Discount rate, %
 
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.37
  29.79
  31.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  176
  129
  134
  138
  139
  138
  135
  130
  123
  115
  104
  94
  83
  72
  62
  52
  42
  34
  27
  21
  15
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

U.S. Concrete, Inc. is a producer of ready-mixed concrete in select geographic markets in the United States. The Company conducts its operations through two business segments: ready-mixed concrete and aggregate products. The ready-mixed concrete segment engages principally in the formulation, production and delivery of ready-mixed concrete to its customers' job sites. The aggregate products segment produces crushed stone, sand and gravel. The Company' other products include its building materials stores, hauling operations, aggregates distribution terminals, lime slurry, brokered product sales, a recycled aggregates operation, and concrete blocks. The Company also offers the ARIDUS Rapid Drying Concrete technology. As of April 10, 2017, the Company operated 155 standard ready-mixed concrete plants, 16 volumetric ready-mixed concrete plants, 17 producing aggregates facilities, three aggregates distribution terminals, two lime slurry facilities, and one recycled aggregates facility.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  U S Concrete (USCR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 131.4
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 6.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 19.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 60%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 228.6%
Total Debt to Equity 237.6%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Return On Total Capital 1.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Return On Equity 5.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.2%
EBITDA Margin 9.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Operating Margin 6.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Net Profit Margin 0.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Effective Tax Rate 67.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 17%
Payout Ratio 0%

USCR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the USCR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1168 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by U S Concrete. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of U S Concrete. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our USCR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 23.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.6%, whose default value for USCR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of U S Concrete, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of U S Concrete.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of USCR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for USCR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.9% for U S Concrete.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for U S Concrete. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the USCR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for USCR are equal to 34.8%.

Life of production assets of 9.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in U S Concrete operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for USCR is equal to 1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $189 million for U S Concrete - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 15.73 million for U S Concrete is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of U S Concrete at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ U.S. Concrete reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 04:41PM  Associated Press]
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Financial statements of USCR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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