Intrinsic value of U S Concrete - USCR

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$66.95

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$66.95

 
Intrinsic value

$117.90

 
Up/down potential

+76%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of USCR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.79
  22.00
  20.30
  18.77
  17.39
  16.15
  15.04
  14.03
  13.13
  12.32
  11.59
  10.93
  10.33
  9.80
  9.32
  8.89
  8.50
  8.15
  7.84
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.67
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
Revenue, $m
  1,168
  1,425
  1,714
  2,036
  2,390
  2,776
  3,194
  3,642
  4,120
  4,628
  5,164
  5,728
  6,320
  6,940
  7,586
  8,261
  8,963
  9,693
  10,453
  11,242
  12,063
  12,915
  13,801
  14,722
  15,680
  16,677
  17,714
  18,794
  19,920
  21,093
  22,316
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,311
  1,574
  1,867
  2,190
  2,541
  2,922
  3,330
  3,765
  4,227
  4,716
  5,216
  5,755
  6,319
  6,908
  7,522
  8,162
  8,827
  9,519
  10,237
  10,984
  11,761
  12,567
  13,406
  14,278
  15,186
  16,131
  17,114
  18,139
  19,207
  20,322
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,093
  1,311
  1,574
  1,867
  2,190
  2,541
  2,922
  3,330
  3,765
  4,227
  4,716
  5,216
  5,755
  6,319
  6,908
  7,522
  8,162
  8,827
  9,519
  10,237
  10,984
  11,761
  12,567
  13,406
  14,278
  15,186
  16,131
  17,114
  18,139
  19,207
  20,322
Operating income, $m
  75
  114
  140
  169
  200
  235
  272
  312
  355
  400
  448
  512
  565
  620
  678
  738
  801
  866
  934
  1,005
  1,078
  1,154
  1,234
  1,316
  1,402
  1,491
  1,583
  1,680
  1,781
  1,885
  1,995
EBITDA, $m
  130
  180
  216
  257
  301
  350
  402
  459
  519
  583
  651
  722
  796
  875
  956
  1,041
  1,129
  1,222
  1,317
  1,417
  1,520
  1,628
  1,739
  1,855
  1,976
  2,102
  2,232
  2,368
  2,510
  2,658
  2,812
Interest expense (income), $m
  25
  30
  41
  54
  68
  83
  100
  118
  138
  159
  181
  204
  229
  255
  282
  310
  339
  370
  402
  435
  469
  505
  542
  581
  621
  663
  707
  752
  799
  848
  899
Earnings before tax, $m
  31
  84
  99
  115
  133
  152
  172
  194
  217
  242
  268
  308
  336
  366
  396
  429
  462
  497
  533
  570
  609
  649
  691
  735
  780
  828
  877
  928
  982
  1,037
  1,096
Tax expense, $m
  21
  23
  27
  31
  36
  41
  46
  52
  59
  65
  72
  83
  91
  99
  107
  116
  125
  134
  144
  154
  164
  175
  187
  198
  211
  223
  237
  251
  265
  280
  296
Net income, $m
  9
  62
  72
  84
  97
  111
  126
  142
  159
  176
  195
  225
  245
  267
  289
  313
  337
  362
  389
  416
  444
  474
  505
  536
  570
  604
  640
  678
  717
  757
  800

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  76
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  945
  1,060
  1,275
  1,515
  1,778
  2,066
  2,376
  2,710
  3,066
  3,443
  3,842
  4,262
  4,702
  5,163
  5,645
  6,146
  6,669
  7,212
  7,777
  8,365
  8,975
  9,609
  10,269
  10,954
  11,667
  12,408
  13,180
  13,984
  14,821
  15,694
  16,604
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  869
  1,060
  1,275
  1,515
  1,778
  2,066
  2,376
  2,710
  3,066
  3,443
  3,842
  4,262
  4,702
  5,163
  5,645
  6,146
  6,669
  7,212
  7,777
  8,365
  8,975
  9,609
  10,269
  10,954
  11,667
  12,408
  13,180
  13,984
  14,821
  15,694
  16,604
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
Average production assets, $m
  407
  496
  597
  709
  832
  966
  1,111
  1,267
  1,434
  1,610
  1,797
  1,993
  2,199
  2,415
  2,640
  2,875
  3,119
  3,373
  3,638
  3,912
  4,198
  4,494
  4,803
  5,123
  5,457
  5,803
  6,164
  6,540
  6,932
  7,340
  7,766
Working capital, $m
  71
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  32
  36
  41
  46
  52
  57
  63
  69
  76
  83
  90
  97
  105
  112
  121
  129
  138
  147
  157
  167
  177
  188
  199
  211
  223
Total debt, $m
  449
  594
  777
  981
  1,205
  1,449
  1,713
  1,996
  2,299
  2,620
  2,959
  3,316
  3,690
  4,082
  4,491
  4,917
  5,361
  5,823
  6,304
  6,803
  7,322
  7,861
  8,421
  9,004
  9,610
  10,240
  10,896
  11,579
  12,291
  13,033
  13,807
Total liabilities, $m
  757
  901
  1,084
  1,288
  1,512
  1,756
  2,020
  2,303
  2,606
  2,927
  3,266
  3,623
  3,997
  4,389
  4,798
  5,224
  5,668
  6,130
  6,611
  7,110
  7,629
  8,168
  8,728
  9,311
  9,917
  10,547
  11,203
  11,886
  12,598
  13,340
  14,114
Total equity, $m
  189
  159
  191
  227
  267
  310
  356
  406
  460
  516
  576
  639
  705
  775
  847
  922
  1,000
  1,082
  1,167
  1,255
  1,346
  1,441
  1,540
  1,643
  1,750
  1,861
  1,977
  2,098
  2,223
  2,354
  2,491
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  946
  1,060
  1,275
  1,515
  1,779
  2,066
  2,376
  2,709
  3,066
  3,443
  3,842
  4,262
  4,702
  5,164
  5,645
  6,146
  6,668
  7,212
  7,778
  8,365
  8,975
  9,609
  10,268
  10,954
  11,667
  12,408
  13,180
  13,984
  14,821
  15,694
  16,605
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.376
  3.740
  4.060
  4.320
  4.520
  4.680
  4.810
  4.910
  5.000
  5.070
  5.130
  5.190
  5.230
  5.270
  5.300
  5.330
  5.360
  5.380
  5.400
  5.420
  5.440
  5.450
  5.470
  5.480
  5.490
  5.500
  5.510
  5.520
  5.530
  5.540
  5.540
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.130
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  9
  62
  72
  84
  97
  111
  126
  142
  159
  176
  195
  225
  245
  267
  289
  313
  337
  362
  389
  416
  444
  474
  505
  536
  570
  604
  640
  678
  717
  757
  800
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  55
  65
  76
  88
  101
  115
  130
  147
  164
  183
  202
  210
  232
  254
  278
  303
  328
  355
  383
  412
  442
  473
  506
  539
  574
  611
  649
  688
  730
  773
  817
Funds from operations, $m
  99
  127
  148
  172
  198
  226
  256
  288
  323
  359
  398
  435
  477
  521
  567
  615
  665
  718
  772
  828
  886
  947
  1,010
  1,076
  1,144
  1,215
  1,289
  1,366
  1,446
  1,530
  1,617
Change in working capital, $m
  -13
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Cash from operations, $m
  112
  186
  145
  169
  194
  222
  252
  284
  318
  354
  392
  429
  471
  515
  561
  609
  658
  710
  764
  820
  878
  939
  1,001
  1,067
  1,134
  1,205
  1,279
  1,355
  1,435
  1,518
  1,605
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -43
  -52
  -63
  -75
  -88
  -102
  -117
  -133
  -151
  -170
  -189
  -210
  -232
  -254
  -278
  -303
  -328
  -355
  -383
  -412
  -442
  -473
  -506
  -539
  -574
  -611
  -649
  -688
  -730
  -773
New CAPEX, $m
  -40
  -89
  -101
  -112
  -123
  -134
  -145
  -156
  -166
  -177
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -225
  -235
  -244
  -254
  -264
  -275
  -285
  -297
  -308
  -321
  -333
  -347
  -361
  -376
  -392
  -408
  -426
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -163
  -132
  -153
  -175
  -198
  -222
  -247
  -273
  -299
  -328
  -357
  -385
  -416
  -448
  -479
  -513
  -547
  -582
  -619
  -658
  -697
  -739
  -781
  -827
  -872
  -921
  -972
  -1,025
  -1,080
  -1,138
  -1,199
Free cash flow, $m
  -51
  54
  -7
  -6
  -4
  0
  5
  11
  18
  27
  36
  43
  55
  68
  82
  96
  112
  128
  145
  162
  181
  200
  220
  240
  262
  284
  307
  330
  355
  380
  407
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  137
  162
  183
  203
  224
  244
  264
  283
  302
  321
  339
  357
  374
  392
  409
  426
  444
  462
  480
  499
  519
  539
  560
  583
  606
  630
  656
  683
  712
  742
  774
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  122
  162
  183
  203
  224
  244
  264
  283
  302
  321
  339
  357
  374
  392
  409
  426
  444
  462
  480
  499
  519
  539
  560
  583
  606
  630
  656
  683
  712
  742
  774
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  72
  216
  176
  197
  220
  244
  269
  294
  321
  348
  375
  400
  430
  460
  491
  523
  556
  590
  625
  662
  700
  739
  780
  823
  868
  914
  963
  1,014
  1,067
  1,122
  1,180
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -55
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -137
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  59
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  246
  143
  161
  181
  201
  222
  244
  267
  291
  316
  337
  363
  391
  418
  447
  477
  508
  540
  574
  608
  644
  681
  720
  761
  803
  847
  893
  941
  991
  1,044
Discount rate, %
 
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.37
  29.79
  31.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  229
  123
  127
  129
  129
  128
  124
  119
  112
  104
  93
  84
  74
  64
  55
  46
  37
  30
  24
  18
  14
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

U.S. Concrete, Inc., through its subsidiaries, produces and sells ready-mixed concrete, aggregates, and concrete-related products and services for the construction industry in the United States. It operates through two segments, Ready-Mixed Concrete and Aggregate Products. The Ready-Mixed Concrete segment is involved in the formulation, preparation, and delivery of ready-mixed concrete to customers’ job sites; and the provision of various services that include the formulation of mixtures for specific design uses, on-site and lab-based product quality control, and customized delivery programs. The Aggregate Products segment offers crushed stone, sand, and gravel for use in commercial, industrial, and public works projects. The company also engages in the operation of building materials stores; provision of concrete blocks, lime slurry, and Aridus rapid-drying concrete technology; sale of brokered products; hauling and recycled aggregates operation activities; and operation of drum mixer trucks, as well as transfer trucks for transporting cement and aggregates. It primarily serves concrete sub-contractors, general contractors, governmental agencies, property owners and developers, architects, engineers, and home builders in north and west Texas, California, New Jersey, New York, Washington, D.C., and Oklahoma. U.S. Concrete, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Euless, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  U S Concrete (USCR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 116.8
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 5.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 19.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 60%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 228.6%
Total Debt to Equity 237.6%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Return On Total Capital 1.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Return On Equity 5.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.2%
EBITDA Margin 9.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Operating Margin 6.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Net Profit Margin 0.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Effective Tax Rate 67.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 17%
Payout Ratio 0%

USCR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the USCR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1168 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by U S Concrete. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of U S Concrete. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our USCR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 22% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.6%, whose default value for USCR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of U S Concrete, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of U S Concrete.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of USCR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for USCR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.9% for U S Concrete.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for U S Concrete. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the USCR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for USCR are equal to 34.8%.

Life of production assets of 9.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in U S Concrete operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for USCR is equal to 1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $189 million for U S Concrete - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.041 million for U S Concrete is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of U S Concrete at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.


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