Intrinsic value of United Therapeutics - UTHR

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$132.30

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$132.30

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of UTHR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.07
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,599
  1,631
  1,668
  1,711
  1,760
  1,813
  1,871
  1,935
  2,004
  2,078
  2,158
  2,244
  2,335
  2,432
  2,535
  2,644
  2,760
  2,882
  3,012
  3,149
  3,294
  3,447
  3,608
  3,777
  3,956
  4,144
  4,343
  4,551
  4,771
  5,002
  5,245
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  853
  873
  895
  920
  948
  979
  1,012
  1,048
  1,087
  1,128
  1,172
  1,220
  1,270
  1,324
  1,381
  1,442
  1,506
  1,573
  1,645
  1,721
  1,800
  1,884
  1,973
  2,067
  2,165
  2,269
  2,378
  2,492
  2,613
  2,740
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  537
  853
  873
  895
  920
  948
  979
  1,012
  1,048
  1,087
  1,128
  1,172
  1,220
  1,270
  1,324
  1,381
  1,442
  1,506
  1,573
  1,645
  1,721
  1,800
  1,884
  1,973
  2,067
  2,165
  2,269
  2,378
  2,492
  2,613
  2,740
Operating income, $m
  1,062
  778
  796
  816
  839
  865
  893
  923
  956
  992
  1,030
  1,072
  1,115
  1,161
  1,211
  1,263
  1,318
  1,377
  1,439
  1,504
  1,573
  1,646
  1,723
  1,804
  1,890
  1,979
  2,074
  2,174
  2,279
  2,389
  2,505
EBITDA, $m
  1,094
  811
  830
  851
  875
  901
  930
  962
  996
  1,033
  1,073
  1,115
  1,161
  1,209
  1,260
  1,315
  1,372
  1,433
  1,498
  1,566
  1,638
  1,714
  1,794
  1,878
  1,967
  2,061
  2,159
  2,263
  2,372
  2,487
  2,608
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  0
  8
  16
  26
  37
  50
  63
  78
  94
  111
  130
  150
  171
  193
  217
  243
  270
  298
  328
  360
  394
  429
  467
  506
  547
  591
  637
  686
  737
  790
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,060
  778
  788
  800
  813
  827
  843
  860
  878
  898
  918
  942
  965
  990
  1,017
  1,045
  1,075
  1,107
  1,141
  1,176
  1,213
  1,252
  1,294
  1,338
  1,384
  1,432
  1,483
  1,537
  1,593
  1,652
  1,715
Tax expense, $m
  346
  210
  213
  216
  220
  223
  228
  232
  237
  242
  248
  254
  261
  267
  275
  282
  290
  299
  308
  317
  328
  338
  349
  361
  374
  387
  400
  415
  430
  446
  463
Net income, $m
  714
  568
  576
  584
  594
  604
  615
  628
  641
  655
  670
  687
  705
  723
  743
  763
  785
  808
  833
  858
  886
  914
  945
  976
  1,010
  1,045
  1,083
  1,122
  1,163
  1,206
  1,252

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,051
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,326
  1,301
  1,331
  1,365
  1,403
  1,446
  1,492
  1,543
  1,598
  1,657
  1,721
  1,789
  1,862
  1,939
  2,021
  2,108
  2,201
  2,299
  2,402
  2,511
  2,627
  2,748
  2,877
  3,012
  3,155
  3,305
  3,463
  3,630
  3,805
  3,989
  4,183
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,275
  1,301
  1,331
  1,365
  1,403
  1,446
  1,492
  1,543
  1,598
  1,657
  1,721
  1,789
  1,862
  1,939
  2,021
  2,108
  2,201
  2,299
  2,402
  2,511
  2,627
  2,748
  2,877
  3,012
  3,155
  3,305
  3,463
  3,630
  3,805
  3,989
  4,183
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.254
  1.254
  1.253
  1.253
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
  1.254
Average production assets, $m
  514
  524
  536
  549
  565
  582
  601
  621
  643
  667
  693
  720
  749
  781
  814
  849
  886
  925
  967
  1,011
  1,057
  1,106
  1,158
  1,213
  1,270
  1,330
  1,394
  1,461
  1,532
  1,606
  1,684
Working capital, $m
  1,092
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
Total debt, $m
  0
  9
  20
  33
  47
  62
  79
  98
  118
  139
  162
  187
  214
  242
  272
  303
  337
  373
  410
  450
  492
  536
  583
  632
  684
  739
  797
  857
  921
  988
  1,059
Total liabilities, $m
  463
  473
  484
  497
  511
  526
  543
  562
  582
  603
  626
  651
  678
  706
  736
  767
  801
  837
  874
  914
  956
  1,000
  1,047
  1,096
  1,148
  1,203
  1,261
  1,321
  1,385
  1,452
  1,523
Total equity, $m
  1,862
  827
  846
  868
  892
  919
  949
  981
  1,016
  1,054
  1,095
  1,138
  1,184
  1,233
  1,285
  1,341
  1,400
  1,462
  1,528
  1,597
  1,671
  1,748
  1,830
  1,916
  2,006
  2,102
  2,203
  2,308
  2,420
  2,537
  2,660
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,325
  1,300
  1,330
  1,365
  1,403
  1,445
  1,492
  1,543
  1,598
  1,657
  1,721
  1,789
  1,862
  1,939
  2,021
  2,108
  2,201
  2,299
  2,402
  2,511
  2,627
  2,748
  2,877
  3,012
  3,154
  3,305
  3,464
  3,629
  3,805
  3,989
  4,183
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.020
  0.040
  0.050
  0.070
  0.080
  0.100
  0.120
  0.130
  0.150
  0.160
  0.180
  0.200
  0.210
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  714
  568
  576
  584
  594
  604
  615
  628
  641
  655
  670
  687
  705
  723
  743
  763
  785
  808
  833
  858
  886
  914
  945
  976
  1,010
  1,045
  1,083
  1,122
  1,163
  1,206
  1,252
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  64
  67
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
Funds from operations, $m
  527
  601
  609
  619
  629
  641
  653
  667
  681
  697
  714
  731
  750
  771
  792
  815
  839
  865
  892
  920
  950
  982
  1,015
  1,050
  1,087
  1,126
  1,168
  1,211
  1,256
  1,304
  1,355
Change in working capital, $m
  -117
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Cash from operations, $m
  644
  600
  608
  617
  628
  639
  652
  665
  679
  695
  712
  729
  748
  768
  789
  812
  836
  861
  888
  916
  946
  978
  1,011
  1,046
  1,083
  1,122
  1,162
  1,205
  1,251
  1,298
  1,348
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
New CAPEX, $m
  -43
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
Cash from investing activities, $m
  48
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -167
  -176
Free cash flow, $m
  692
  558
  564
  571
  579
  588
  597
  608
  619
  632
  645
  659
  675
  691
  709
  727
  747
  768
  790
  814
  838
  864
  892
  921
  951
  984
  1,018
  1,053
  1,091
  1,131
  1,172
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -9
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -488
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -498
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  191
  568
  575
  584
  593
  603
  614
  626
  639
  653
  668
  684
  701
  719
  739
  759
  781
  804
  828
  853
  880
  909
  939
  970
  1,003
  1,038
  1,075
  1,114
  1,155
  1,198
  1,243
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -262
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,051
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,602
  556
  562
  568
  576
  585
  594
  604
  616
  628
  641
  655
  670
  686
  704
  722
  741
  762
  784
  807
  831
  857
  884
  913
  943
  975
  1,008
  1,043
  1,080
  1,120
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,536
  509
  489
  468
  446
  424
  401
  378
  354
  329
  304
  280
  255
  230
  207
  183
  161
  140
  121
  103
  86
  71
  58
  46
  37
  28
  22
  16
  12
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

United Therapeutics Corporation, a biotechnology company, develops and commercializes products to address the unmet medical needs of patients with chronic and life-threatening diseases worldwide. The company’s product candidates include Remodulin, a continuously-infused formulation of the prostacyclin analogue treprostinil for subcutaneous and intravenous administration to diminish symptoms associated with exercise in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) patients; Tyvaso, an inhaled formulation of treprostinil to enhace the exercise ability in PAH patients; Orenitram, a tablet dosage form of treprostinil to enhance the exercise capacity in PAH patients; and Adcirca, a once-daily PDE-5 inhibitor to enhance the exercise ability in PAH patients. It also provides Unituxin for the treatment of pediatric patients with high-risk neuroblastoma who achieve a partial response to prior first-line multiagent multimodality therapy. In addition, the company develops RemoSynch and RemUnity delivery systems for intravenous and subcutaneous Remodulin; esuberaprost and eNOS gene therapies for PAH; and organ transplantation-related technologies, including regenerative medicines, xenotransplantation, and ex-vivo lung perfusion. United Therapeutics Corporation was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Silver Spring, Maryland.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  United Therapeutics (UTHR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 8
Price to Sales 3.6
Price to Book 3.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -14%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 531
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 31.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 27%
Return On Total Capital 41.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.8%
Return On Equity 41.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.7%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 95.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 93.7%
EBITDA Margin 68.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.9%
Operating Margin 66.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52%
Pre-Tax Margin 66.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.4%
Net Profit Margin 44.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.5%
Effective Tax Rate 32.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

UTHR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UTHR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1599 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by United Therapeutics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of United Therapeutics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UTHR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for UTHR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of United Therapeutics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of United Therapeutics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UTHR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 52.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UTHR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 80% for United Therapeutics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for United Therapeutics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UTHR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UTHR are equal to 32.1%.

Life of production assets of 16.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in United Therapeutics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UTHR is equal to 2.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1862 million for United Therapeutics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 43.572 million for United Therapeutics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of United Therapeutics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.8 billion.


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Stock chart of UTHR Financial statements of UTHR Annual reports of UTHR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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