Intrinsic value of Unitil - UTL

Previous Close

$49.22

  Intrinsic Value

$21.22

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-57%

  Value-price divergence*

-35%

Previous close

$49.22

 
Intrinsic value

$21.22

 
Up/down potential

-57%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-35%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of UTL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -10.30
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  377
  391
  400
  410
  421
  434
  448
  464
  480
  498
  517
  537
  559
  582
  607
  633
  661
  690
  721
  754
  789
  826
  864
  905
  948
  993
  1,040
  1,090
  1,143
  1,198
  1,256
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  332
  340
  349
  359
  370
  381
  394
  409
  424
  440
  457
  476
  496
  517
  539
  563
  588
  614
  642
  671
  703
  735
  770
  806
  845
  885
  928
  973
  1,020
  1,069
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  318
  332
  340
  349
  359
  370
  381
  394
  409
  424
  440
  457
  476
  496
  517
  539
  563
  588
  614
  642
  671
  703
  735
  770
  806
  845
  885
  928
  973
  1,020
  1,069
Operating income, $m
  65
  58
  60
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  72
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  179
  187
EBITDA, $m
  112
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
Interest expense (income), $m
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  64
  67
  72
  76
  81
  85
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  120
Earnings before tax, $m
  43
  35
  35
  36
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
Tax expense, $m
  16
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
Net income, $m
  27
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,128
  1,146
  1,172
  1,202
  1,236
  1,273
  1,314
  1,359
  1,408
  1,460
  1,516
  1,576
  1,640
  1,708
  1,780
  1,857
  1,939
  2,025
  2,116
  2,212
  2,314
  2,421
  2,534
  2,653
  2,779
  2,911
  3,050
  3,197
  3,351
  3,514
  3,684
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,122
  1,146
  1,172
  1,202
  1,236
  1,273
  1,314
  1,359
  1,408
  1,460
  1,516
  1,576
  1,640
  1,708
  1,780
  1,857
  1,939
  2,025
  2,116
  2,212
  2,314
  2,421
  2,534
  2,653
  2,779
  2,911
  3,050
  3,197
  3,351
  3,514
  3,684
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.336
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
Average production assets, $m
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  204
  214
Working capital, $m
  -45
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
Total debt, $m
  427
  439
  458
  480
  505
  533
  563
  596
  632
  671
  712
  757
  804
  854
  908
  964
  1,025
  1,088
  1,156
  1,227
  1,302
  1,381
  1,465
  1,553
  1,646
  1,743
  1,846
  1,955
  2,069
  2,189
  2,315
Total liabilities, $m
  835
  847
  866
  888
  913
  941
  971
  1,004
  1,040
  1,079
  1,120
  1,165
  1,212
  1,262
  1,316
  1,372
  1,433
  1,496
  1,564
  1,635
  1,710
  1,789
  1,873
  1,961
  2,054
  2,151
  2,254
  2,363
  2,477
  2,597
  2,723
Total equity, $m
  293
  299
  306
  314
  323
  332
  343
  355
  367
  381
  396
  411
  428
  446
  465
  485
  506
  528
  552
  577
  604
  632
  661
  692
  725
  760
  796
  834
  875
  917
  962
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,128
  1,146
  1,172
  1,202
  1,236
  1,273
  1,314
  1,359
  1,407
  1,460
  1,516
  1,576
  1,640
  1,708
  1,781
  1,857
  1,939
  2,024
  2,116
  2,212
  2,314
  2,421
  2,534
  2,653
  2,779
  2,911
  3,050
  3,197
  3,352
  3,514
  3,685
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.457
  1.470
  1.500
  1.530
  1.570
  1.600
  1.640
  1.680
  1.720
  1.760
  1.800
  1.840
  1.880
  1.920
  1.950
  1.990
  2.030
  2.060
  2.090
  2.120
  2.160
  2.190
  2.210
  2.240
  2.270
  2.290
  2.320
  2.340
  2.360
  2.390
  2.410
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  27
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  47
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
Funds from operations, $m
  47
  32
  33
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  48
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
Change in working capital, $m
  -21
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
Cash from operations, $m
  68
  31
  31
  32
  32
  33
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
New CAPEX, $m
  -98
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -98
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -28
  -30
Free cash flow, $m
  -30
  23
  23
  23
  23
  23
  23
  23
  24
  24
  24
  24
  24
  24
  25
  25
  25
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  31
  32
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  48
  18
  19
  22
  25
  28
  30
  33
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  47
  18
  19
  22
  25
  28
  30
  33
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  17
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  145
  151
  158
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -10
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
Discount rate, %
 
  8.60
  9.03
  9.48
  9.96
  10.45
  10.98
  11.52
  12.10
  12.71
  13.34
  14.01
  14.71
  15.44
  16.22
  17.03
  17.88
  18.77
  19.71
  20.70
  21.73
  22.82
  23.96
  25.16
  26.42
  27.74
  29.12
  30.58
  32.11
  33.71
  35.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  32
  30
  29
  27
  25
  23
  21
  19
  17
  14
  12
  11
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Unitil Corporation, a public utility holding company, engages in the distribution of electricity and natural gas in the United States. It operates through three segments: Utility Gas Operations, Utility Electric Operations, and Non-Regulated. The company distributes electricity in the southeastern seacoast and state capital regions of New Hampshire, and the greater Fitchburg area of north central Massachusetts; and distributes natural gas in southeastern New Hampshire, portions of southern Maine to the Lewiston-Auburn area, and in the greater Fitchburg area of north central Massachusetts. It also operates 86 miles of interstate underground natural gas transmission pipeline that provides interstate natural gas pipeline access and transportation services primarily in Maine and New Hampshire. In addition, the company provides energy brokering and advisory services to commercial and industrial customers; and real estate management services. It serves approximately 104,300 electric customers and 79,900 natural gas customers. Unitil Corporation was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Hampton, New Hampshire.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Unitil (UTL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.6
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -23.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -10.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -5.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 110.9%
Total Debt to Equity 145.7%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Total Capital 3.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Return On Equity 9.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 29.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.3%
Operating Margin 17%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Net Profit Margin 7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Effective Tax Rate 37.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.1%
Payout Ratio 74.1%

UTL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UTL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $383 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Unitil. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Unitil. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UTL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.6%, whose default value for UTL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Unitil, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Unitil.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UTL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UTL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.5% for Unitil.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Unitil. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UTL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UTL are equal to 17%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Unitil operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UTL is equal to 13.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $293 million for Unitil - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 14.092 million for Unitil is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Unitil at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to UNITIL Corp. : August 11, 2017   [Aug-11-17 07:12PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Unitil posts 2Q profit   [Jul-27-17 04:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ Unitil Reports Second Quarter Earnings   [06:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Unitil Declares Common Stock Dividend   [Jul-26-17 01:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to UNITIL Corp. : May 4, 2017   [May-04-17 04:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Unitil posts 1Q profit   [Apr-27-17 10:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ Unitil Reports First Quarter Earnings   [06:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Unitil Shareholders Elect Directors at Annual Meeting   [Apr-26-17 12:52PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Unitil Declares Common Stock Dividend   [11:18AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Unitil posts 4Q profit   [07:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Unitil Reports Year-End Earnings   [06:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Unitil Corporation (UTL) Going to Burn These Hedge Funds?   [Dec-15-16 05:31AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ ETFs with exposure to UNITIL Corp. : December 14, 2016   [Dec-14-16 01:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Unitil (UTL): Moving Average Crossover Alert   [Dec-13-16 09:25AM  Zacks]
▶ Unitil Reports Third Quarter Earnings   [06:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Unitil Declares Common Stock Dividend   [Oct-19-16 02:41PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Unitil Reports Second Quarter Earnings   [06:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Unitil Declares Common Stock Dividend   [Jul-20-16 11:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Unitil posts 1Q profit   [07:06AM  AP]
▶ Unitil Reports First Quarter Earnings   [06:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Unitil Reports Year-End Earnings   [07:12AM  at noodls]
Stock chart of UTL Financial statements of UTL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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