Intrinsic value of Vina Concha y Toro ADR - VCO

Previous Close

$33.01

  Intrinsic Value

$15.54

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-53%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$33.01

 
Intrinsic value

$15.54

 
Up/down potential

-53%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of VCO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2015), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2015(a)
   2016
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.10
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  959
  978
  1,001
  1,026
  1,055
  1,087
  1,122
  1,161
  1,202
  1,247
  1,294
  1,346
  1,400
  1,458
  1,520
  1,586
  1,655
  1,729
  1,807
  1,889
  1,975
  2,067
  2,164
  2,265
  2,373
  2,486
  2,605
  2,730
  2,861
  3,000
  3,146
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  843
  862
  884
  909
  937
  967
  1,000
  1,035
  1,073
  1,114
  1,154
  1,201
  1,251
  1,304
  1,360
  1,419
  1,482
  1,549
  1,620
  1,694
  1,773
  1,855
  1,943
  2,035
  2,131
  2,233
  2,341
  2,454
  2,573
  2,698
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
Total operating expenses, $m
  855
  873
  892
  915
  941
  970
  1,001
  1,034
  1,070
  1,109
  1,151
  1,192
  1,240
  1,291
  1,345
  1,402
  1,462
  1,526
  1,594
  1,666
  1,742
  1,822
  1,905
  1,994
  2,087
  2,185
  2,288
  2,397
  2,512
  2,632
  2,759
Operating income, $m
  105
  105
  108
  111
  114
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  154
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  223
  234
  246
  258
  272
  286
  300
  316
  332
  350
  368
  387
EBITDA, $m
  105
  169
  172
  177
  182
  188
  194
  201
  208
  216
  225
  235
  245
  256
  267
  279
  292
  306
  321
  336
  353
  370
  389
  408
  428
  450
  473
  497
  522
  549
  577
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
Earnings before tax, $m
  101
  95
  97
  99
  101
  104
  108
  111
  115
  120
  124
  134
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  180
  189
  198
  207
  217
  228
  239
  251
  263
  276
  290
  305
  320
Tax expense, $m
  25
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  87
Net income, $m
  75
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  81
  84
  87
  91
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  183
  192
  202
  212
  223
  234

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  50
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,489
  1,469
  1,503
  1,541
  1,584
  1,633
  1,685
  1,743
  1,805
  1,872
  1,944
  2,020
  2,102
  2,190
  2,282
  2,381
  2,485
  2,596
  2,712
  2,836
  2,966
  3,104
  3,249
  3,402
  3,563
  3,732
  3,911
  4,099
  4,296
  4,505
  4,723
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,439
  1,469
  1,503
  1,541
  1,584
  1,633
  1,685
  1,743
  1,805
  1,872
  1,944
  2,020
  2,102
  2,190
  2,282
  2,381
  2,485
  2,596
  2,712
  2,836
  2,966
  3,104
  3,249
  3,402
  3,563
  3,732
  3,911
  4,099
  4,296
  4,505
  4,723
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
Average production assets, $m
  578
  589
  602
  618
  635
  655
  676
  699
  724
  750
  779
  810
  843
  878
  915
  955
  996
  1,041
  1,088
  1,137
  1,189
  1,244
  1,303
  1,364
  1,428
  1,496
  1,568
  1,643
  1,723
  1,806
  1,894
Working capital, $m
  367
  439
  449
  461
  474
  488
  504
  521
  540
  560
  581
  604
  629
  655
  683
  712
  743
  776
  811
  848
  887
  928
  971
  1,017
  1,065
  1,116
  1,169
  1,226
  1,285
  1,347
  1,412
Total debt, $m
  356
  321
  339
  359
  382
  407
  435
  465
  497
  533
  570
  611
  654
  700
  748
  800
  855
  913
  974
  1,039
  1,107
  1,179
  1,256
  1,336
  1,420
  1,509
  1,603
  1,702
  1,806
  1,915
  2,030
Total liabilities, $m
  806
  771
  789
  809
  832
  857
  885
  915
  947
  983
  1,020
  1,061
  1,104
  1,150
  1,198
  1,250
  1,305
  1,363
  1,424
  1,489
  1,557
  1,629
  1,706
  1,786
  1,870
  1,959
  2,053
  2,152
  2,256
  2,365
  2,480
Total equity, $m
  683
  698
  714
  732
  753
  775
  800
  828
  857
  889
  923
  960
  999
  1,040
  1,084
  1,131
  1,180
  1,233
  1,288
  1,347
  1,409
  1,474
  1,543
  1,616
  1,692
  1,773
  1,858
  1,947
  2,041
  2,140
  2,244
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,489
  1,469
  1,503
  1,541
  1,585
  1,632
  1,685
  1,743
  1,804
  1,872
  1,943
  2,021
  2,103
  2,190
  2,282
  2,381
  2,485
  2,596
  2,712
  2,836
  2,966
  3,103
  3,249
  3,402
  3,562
  3,732
  3,911
  4,099
  4,297
  4,505
  4,724
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.521
  0.460
  0.470
  0.490
  0.510
  0.520
  0.540
  0.560
  0.580
  0.600
  0.620
  0.640
  0.650
  0.670
  0.690
  0.710
  0.720
  0.740
  0.760
  0.770
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.440
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  75
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  81
  84
  87
  91
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  183
  192
  202
  212
  223
  234
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  77
  79
  82
  81
  84
  88
  92
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  181
  189
Funds from operations, $m
  -37
  132
  135
  138
  142
  146
  151
  155
  161
  167
  173
  179
  186
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  263
  276
  289
  303
  317
  333
  349
  366
  384
  403
  423
Change in working capital, $m
  -131
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
Cash from operations, $m
  94
  124
  125
  127
  129
  132
  135
  138
  142
  147
  152
  156
  161
  167
  174
  181
  189
  197
  205
  215
  224
  234
  245
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
  341
  358
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -181
New CAPEX, $m
  -36
  -11
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -31
  -69
  -73
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -222
  -232
  -243
  -255
  -269
Free cash flow, $m
  63
  55
  53
  51
  50
  49
  48
  48
  48
  48
  48
  47
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -52
  15
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -64
  15
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  70
  70
  71
  73
  74
  76
  78
  80
  83
  85
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
  195
  204
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -17
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  55
  54
  53
  52
  51
  51
  51
  51
  51
  51
  51
  52
  53
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  53
  50
  46
  43
  40
  37
  34
  32
  29
  27
  24
  22
  20
  18
  16
  14
  13
  11
  10
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Viña Concha y Toro S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces, distributes, trades in, and exports wine in Chile, Europe, the United States, South America, Asia, Canada, Central America, Africa, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Wines and Other. It sells its premium wines under the Don Melchor, Carmín de Peumo, Gravas del Maipo, Amelia, Terrunyo, Marqués de Casa Concha, Gran Reserva Serie Riberas, Casillero del Diablo, Trio, and Late Harvest brand names; varietal and bi-varietal wines under the Sunrise, Concha y Toro, and Frontera brands; and popular wines under the Tocornal, Clos de Pirque, Exportacion, and Fressco brand names. The company also sells premium, varietal, and bi-varietal wines under the Cono Sur, Isla Negra, Maipo, Canepa, Palo Alto, Maycas del Limarí, and Trivento brands, as welll as under the Fetzer, Bonterra, Five Rivers, Jekel, Sanctuary, and Little Black Dress brand names. In addition, it distributes liquor and premium beers in wine bar and tours; and sells fruits, energy drinks, and mineral water. As of December 31, 2015, the company had approximately 11,881 arable hectares on 55 owned and 9 leased vineyards in the Limarí, Aconcagua, Casablanca, San Antonio, Maipo, Cachapoal, Colchagua, Curicó, and Maule Valleys of the Central Zone in Chile; 8 vineyards in the Maipú, Tupungato, Rivadavia, San Carlos, Luján de Cuyo, and San Martín regions located in Mendoza, Argentina; and 15 vineyards in Mendocino and San Luis Obispo in California. Viña Concha y Toro S.A. was founded in 1883 and is headquartered in Las Condes, Chile.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Vina Concha y Toro ADR (VCO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 328.8
Price to Sales 25.7
Price to Book 36.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 262.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 425.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -16.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 35.4%
Total Debt to Equity 52.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Return On Total Capital 7.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Equity 11.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 38.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37%
EBITDA Margin 10.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Operating Margin 10.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Net Profit Margin 7.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Effective Tax Rate 24.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 26%
Payout Ratio 0%

VCO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VCO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $959 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Vina Concha y Toro ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2015 income statement of Vina Concha y Toro ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VCO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for VCO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Vina Concha y Toro ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Vina Concha y Toro ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VCO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $29 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VCO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Vina Concha y Toro ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Vina Concha y Toro ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VCO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VCO are equal to 60.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Vina Concha y Toro ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VCO is equal to 44.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $683 million for Vina Concha y Toro ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 37.311 million for Vina Concha y Toro ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Vina Concha y Toro ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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Stock chart of VCO Financial statements of VCO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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