Intrinsic value of Vocera Communications - VCRA

Previous Close

$26.15

  Intrinsic Value

$10.08

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-61%

Previous close

$26.15

 
Intrinsic value

$10.08

 
Up/down potential

-61%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of VCRA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  23.08
  23.50
  21.65
  19.99
  18.49
  17.14
  15.92
  14.83
  13.85
  12.96
  12.17
  11.45
  10.81
  10.22
  9.70
  9.23
  8.81
  8.43
  8.09
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
Revenue, $m
  128
  158
  192
  231
  273
  320
  371
  426
  485
  548
  615
  685
  759
  837
  918
  1,003
  1,091
  1,183
  1,279
  1,379
  1,482
  1,589
  1,701
  1,817
  1,938
  2,063
  2,194
  2,330
  2,471
  2,619
  2,773
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  157
  190
  227
  268
  313
  362
  415
  472
  532
  596
  659
  730
  805
  883
  965
  1,050
  1,138
  1,230
  1,326
  1,425
  1,529
  1,636
  1,748
  1,864
  1,984
  2,110
  2,241
  2,377
  2,518
  2,666
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
Total operating expenses, $m
  145
  174
  208
  245
  287
  332
  382
  435
  493
  553
  618
  681
  753
  828
  907
  990
  1,075
  1,164
  1,257
  1,353
  1,453
  1,558
  1,665
  1,778
  1,895
  2,016
  2,142
  2,274
  2,411
  2,553
  2,702
Operating income, $m
  -17
  -16
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -10
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -3
  4
  6
  9
  11
  14
  17
  19
  22
  26
  29
  32
  36
  40
  43
  47
  52
  56
  61
  65
  70
EBITDA, $m
  -13
  -10
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -2
  0
  3
  5
  8
  11
  14
  17
  21
  24
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  49
  53
  58
  63
  69
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
Earnings before tax, $m
  -17
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -13
  -12
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
Net income, $m
  -17
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -13
  -12
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  74
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  182
  133
  162
  195
  231
  270
  313
  360
  410
  463
  519
  578
  641
  706
  775
  846
  921
  999
  1,079
  1,163
  1,251
  1,341
  1,435
  1,533
  1,635
  1,741
  1,851
  1,966
  2,085
  2,210
  2,340
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  108
  133
  162
  195
  231
  270
  313
  360
  410
  463
  519
  578
  641
  706
  775
  846
  921
  999
  1,079
  1,163
  1,251
  1,341
  1,435
  1,533
  1,635
  1,741
  1,851
  1,966
  2,085
  2,210
  2,340
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.185
  1.188
  1.185
  1.185
  1.182
  1.185
  1.185
  1.183
  1.183
  1.184
  1.185
  1.185
  1.184
  1.186
  1.185
  1.186
  1.185
  1.184
  1.185
  1.186
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
  1.185
Average production assets, $m
  15
  18
  22
  26
  31
  36
  42
  48
  55
  62
  69
  77
  86
  95
  104
  113
  123
  134
  145
  156
  167
  180
  192
  205
  219
  233
  248
  263
  279
  296
  313
Working capital, $m
  44
  -37
  -45
  -54
  -64
  -75
  -87
  -100
  -114
  -128
  -144
  -160
  -178
  -196
  -215
  -235
  -255
  -277
  -299
  -323
  -347
  -372
  -398
  -425
  -453
  -483
  -513
  -545
  -578
  -613
  -649
Total debt, $m
  0
  19
  40
  63
  90
  119
  150
  184
  220
  259
  300
  344
  389
  437
  487
  540
  594
  651
  710
  771
  835
  901
  970
  1,042
  1,116
  1,194
  1,274
  1,358
  1,445
  1,536
  1,631
Total liabilities, $m
  79
  98
  119
  142
  169
  198
  229
  263
  299
  338
  379
  423
  468
  516
  566
  619
  673
  730
  789
  850
  914
  980
  1,049
  1,121
  1,195
  1,273
  1,353
  1,437
  1,524
  1,615
  1,710
Total equity, $m
  103
  36
  44
  52
  62
  73
  84
  97
  110
  124
  140
  156
  172
  190
  208
  228
  248
  269
  290
  313
  336
  361
  386
  412
  440
  468
  498
  529
  561
  594
  629
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  182
  134
  163
  194
  231
  271
  313
  360
  409
  462
  519
  579
  640
  706
  774
  847
  921
  999
  1,079
  1,163
  1,250
  1,341
  1,435
  1,533
  1,635
  1,741
  1,851
  1,966
  2,085
  2,209
  2,339
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.520
  0.910
  1.210
  1.440
  1.630
  1.780
  1.900
  2.000
  2.080
  2.150
  2.210
  2.260
  2.300
  2.340
  2.370
  2.400
  2.420
  2.450
  2.470
  2.480
  2.500
  2.510
  2.530
  2.540
  2.550
  2.560
  2.570
  2.580
  2.580
  2.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -17
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -13
  -12
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
Funds from operations, $m
  22
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -2
  -1
  0
  2
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
Change in working capital, $m
  11
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
Cash from operations, $m
  11
  -3
  -1
  1
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -4
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
Free cash flow, $m
  11
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  2
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  74
  77
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  27
  27
  27
  23
  23
  23
  23
  23
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  23
  23
  23
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  3
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  57
  61
  63
  66
  68
  66
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  86
  88
  91
  94
  96
  99
  103
  106
  110
  114
  118
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  14
  34
  38
  42
  46
  51
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  122
  127
  133
  138
  144
  150
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  1
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  74
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  85
  14
  18
  21
  25
  29
  32
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  82
  13
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  21
  20
  19
  18
  16
  15
  13
  11
  10
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  90.3
  82.9
  77.0
  72.4
  68.6
  65.4
  62.7
  60.5
  58.5
  56.8
  55.6
  54.6
  53.6
  52.8
  52.0
  51.3
  50.7
  50.2
  49.6
  49.2
  48.7
  48.3
  48.0
  47.6
  47.3
  47.0
  46.7
  46.4
  46.2
  46.0

Vocera Communications, Inc. is a provider of communication solutions for mobile workers in healthcare, hospitality, energy, education and other industries. The Company's segments include Product and Service. The Company's solutions include the Vocera Communication System, Vocera Care Experience, Vocera Engage integration platform, smartphone applications and its Experience Innovation Network. The Company's Vocera Communication System consists of a software platform that connects communication devices, including its hands-free, wearable, voice-controlled communication badges, and third-party mobile devices that use its software applications to become part of the Vocera system. Its Vocera Collaboration Suite combines calling, texting, alerting and content distribution capabilities of Vocera into a smartphone application. Its Vocera Secure Texting is an alternative to non-secure short message service (SMS) texting.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Vocera Communications (VCRA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -42.4
Price to Sales 5.6
Price to Book 7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 65.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 120.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 23.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 400%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -9.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.4%
Return On Total Capital -16.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.7%
Return On Equity -16.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.7%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 61.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.8%
EBITDA Margin -10.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.6%
Operating Margin -13.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -13.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.7%
Net Profit Margin -13.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

VCRA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VCRA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $128 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Vocera Communications. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Vocera Communications. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VCRA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 23.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for VCRA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Vocera Communications, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Vocera Communications.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VCRA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 100%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $17 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VCRA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Vocera Communications.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Vocera Communications. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VCRA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VCRA are equal to 11.3%.

Life of production assets of 11 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Vocera Communications operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VCRA is equal to -23.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $103 million for Vocera Communications - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.227 million for Vocera Communications is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Vocera Communications at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Three Vocera Customers Selected to Speak at HIMSS18   [Feb-22-18 08:04AM  Business Wire]
▶ Vocera beats Street 4Q forecasts   [Feb-08-18 05:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ Vocera Engage is Now Available in the United Kingdom   [Feb-07-18 03:09AM  Business Wire]
▶ Vocera to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Jan-31-18 08:04AM  Business Wire]
▶ Vocera Q4 2017 Results to be Released February 8, 2018   [Jan-25-18 08:04AM  Business Wire]
▶ Vocera Earns New ATO From the Department of Defense   [Nov-09-17 08:03AM  Business Wire]
▶ Vocera reports 3Q loss   [Oct-26-17 05:34PM  Associated Press]
▶ Vocera Q3 2017 Results to be Released October 26, 2017   [Oct-12-17 08:03AM  Business Wire]
▶ Vocera to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Aug-23-17 08:04AM  Business Wire]
▶ Vocera Announces Second Quarter Revenue of $38.5 Million   [Jul-27-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Vocera Q2 2017 Results to Be Released July 27, 2017   [Jul-13-17 08:04AM  Business Wire]
▶ Vocera reports 1Q loss   [Apr-27-17 06:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ Vocera to Release Research Results from HIMSS17   [Apr-24-17 08:07AM  Business Wire]
▶ Vocera Q1 2017 Results to be Released April 27, 2017   [Apr-13-17 08:05AM  Business Wire]
▶ Vocera reports 4Q loss   [Feb-09-17 06:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ Five Vocera Customers Selected to Speak at HIMSS17   [Feb-07-17 08:03AM  Business Wire]
▶ Vocera Q4 2016 Results to be Released February 9, 2017   [Jan-26-17 08:03AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Betting On Ring Energy Inc (REI)   [Dec-14-16 08:23AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of VCRA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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