Intrinsic value of Vectrus - VEC

Previous Close

$32.65

  Intrinsic Value

$86.03

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+163%

Previous close

$32.65

 
Intrinsic value

$86.03

 
Up/down potential

+163%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of VEC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.85
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,191
  1,215
  1,243
  1,275
  1,311
  1,350
  1,394
  1,441
  1,493
  1,548
  1,608
  1,671
  1,739
  1,811
  1,888
  1,969
  2,056
  2,147
  2,244
  2,346
  2,453
  2,567
  2,687
  2,813
  2,947
  3,087
  3,235
  3,390
  3,554
  3,726
  3,907
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  850
  869
  891
  915
  942
  972
  1,004
  1,039
  1,077
  1,118
  1,139
  1,186
  1,235
  1,287
  1,343
  1,401
  1,464
  1,530
  1,599
  1,673
  1,750
  1,832
  1,918
  2,009
  2,105
  2,205
  2,311
  2,423
  2,540
  2,664
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  330
  338
  347
  355
  364
  373
  383
  392
  402
  412
  422
  433
  444
  455
  466
  478
  490
  502
  515
  528
  541
  554
  568
  582
  597
  612
  627
  643
  659
  675
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,148
  1,180
  1,207
  1,238
  1,270
  1,306
  1,345
  1,387
  1,431
  1,479
  1,530
  1,561
  1,619
  1,679
  1,742
  1,809
  1,879
  1,954
  2,032
  2,114
  2,201
  2,291
  2,386
  2,486
  2,591
  2,702
  2,817
  2,938
  3,066
  3,199
  3,339
Operating income, $m
  43
  35
  35
  37
  40
  44
  48
  54
  61
  69
  78
  109
  120
  132
  146
  160
  176
  193
  212
  232
  253
  276
  301
  327
  355
  385
  417
  452
  488
  527
  568
EBITDA, $m
  45
  57
  57
  59
  62
  66
  70
  76
  83
  91
  100
  109
  120
  133
  146
  161
  176
  193
  212
  232
  253
  276
  301
  327
  356
  386
  418
  452
  488
  527
  568
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
Earnings before tax, $m
  37
  32
  33
  34
  37
  40
  45
  50
  56
  63
  72
  103
  113
  125
  137
  151
  166
  182
  200
  219
  239
  261
  285
  310
  337
  366
  397
  429
  464
  501
  541
Tax expense, $m
  13
  9
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
  45
  49
  54
  59
  65
  71
  77
  84
  91
  99
  107
  116
  125
  135
  146
Net income, $m
  24
  24
  24
  25
  27
  29
  32
  36
  41
  46
  52
  75
  83
  91
  100
  110
  121
  133
  146
  160
  175
  191
  208
  226
  246
  267
  289
  313
  339
  366
  395

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  48
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  465
  425
  435
  446
  459
  473
  488
  505
  523
  542
  563
  585
  609
  634
  661
  690
  720
  752
  786
  821
  859
  899
  941
  985
  1,032
  1,081
  1,133
  1,187
  1,244
  1,305
  1,368
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  417
  425
  435
  446
  459
  473
  488
  505
  523
  542
  563
  585
  609
  634
  661
  690
  720
  752
  786
  821
  859
  899
  941
  985
  1,032
  1,081
  1,133
  1,187
  1,244
  1,305
  1,368
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.856
  2.859
  2.857
  2.859
  2.856
  2.854
  2.857
  2.853
  2.855
  2.856
  2.856
  2.856
  2.856
  2.856
  2.856
  2.854
  2.856
  2.855
  2.855
  2.857
  2.856
  2.855
  2.855
  2.856
  2.856
  2.856
  2.855
  2.856
  2.857
  2.855
  2.856
Average production assets, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Working capital, $m
  56
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
Total debt, $m
  84
  75
  82
  91
  101
  112
  124
  138
  152
  167
  184
  202
  221
  241
  262
  285
  309
  334
  361
  390
  420
  451
  485
  520
  557
  596
  638
  681
  726
  774
  825
Total liabilities, $m
  348
  339
  346
  355
  365
  376
  388
  402
  416
  431
  448
  466
  485
  505
  526
  549
  573
  598
  625
  654
  684
  715
  749
  784
  821
  860
  902
  945
  990
  1,038
  1,089
Total equity, $m
  117
  87
  89
  91
  94
  96
  100
  103
  107
  111
  115
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  168
  175
  183
  192
  201
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  266
  279
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  465
  426
  435
  446
  459
  472
  488
  505
  523
  542
  563
  585
  609
  634
  661
  690
  720
  751
  785
  822
  859
  898
  941
  985
  1,031
  1,080
  1,133
  1,187
  1,244
  1,304
  1,368
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.718
  0.860
  0.930
  1.000
  1.080
  1.160
  1.250
  1.340
  1.430
  1.510
  1.600
  1.690
  1.780
  1.860
  1.940
  2.030
  2.100
  2.180
  2.250
  2.330
  2.400
  2.460
  2.530
  2.590
  2.650
  2.700
  2.760
  2.810
  2.860
  2.910
  2.960
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  24
  24
  24
  25
  27
  29
  32
  36
  41
  46
  52
  75
  83
  91
  100
  110
  121
  133
  146
  160
  175
  191
  208
  226
  246
  267
  289
  313
  339
  366
  395
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  44
  46
  46
  47
  49
  51
  54
  58
  63
  68
  74
  75
  83
  91
  100
  111
  121
  133
  146
  160
  175
  191
  208
  227
  246
  267
  290
  314
  339
  366
  395
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  37
  45
  45
  46
  48
  50
  53
  57
  62
  67
  73
  74
  81
  90
  99
  109
  120
  132
  144
  158
  173
  189
  206
  224
  244
  265
  287
  311
  336
  363
  391
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
Free cash flow, $m
  37
  45
  45
  46
  48
  50
  53
  57
  62
  67
  73
  74
  81
  89
  99
  108
  119
  131
  144
  158
  172
  188
  205
  223
  243
  264
  286
  310
  335
  362
  391
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -29
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -28
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  8
  52
  53
  55
  58
  61
  65
  70
  76
  82
  89
  91
  100
  110
  120
  131
  143
  157
  171
  186
  202
  220
  239
  259
  280
  303
  327
  353
  381
  410
  441
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -28
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  32
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  82
  51
  53
  55
  58
  62
  67
  72
  78
  85
  87
  95
  104
  114
  125
  137
  150
  164
  179
  195
  212
  230
  250
  271
  293
  317
  342
  369
  398
  428
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  79
  47
  46
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  41
  41
  40
  38
  37
  35
  33
  30
  28
  25
  22
  19
  16
  14
  11
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Vectrus, Inc. is a provider of services to the United States Government across the world. The Company offers services, including infrastructure asset management, logistics and supply chain management, and information technology and network communication. Its infrastructure asset management services support the United States Army, Air Force and Navy, and include infrastructure services, security, warehouse management and distribution, ammunition management, civil engineering, air base maintenance and operations, communications, emergency services, transportation, and life support activities at various global military installations. Its logistics and supply chain management services support and maintain the vehicle and equipment stocks of the United States Army and Marine Corps. Its information technology and network communication services consist of sustainment of communications systems, network security, systems installation and life cycle management of information technology systems.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Vectrus (VEC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.8
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 58.1%
Total Debt to Equity 71.8%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Return On Total Capital 11.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Return On Equity 23.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.5%
Asset Turnover 2.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
EBITDA Margin 3.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Operating Margin 3.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Net Profit Margin 2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Effective Tax Rate 35.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

VEC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VEC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1191 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Vectrus. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Vectrus. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VEC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for VEC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Vectrus, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Vectrus.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VEC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 70%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $322 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VEC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Vectrus.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Vectrus. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VEC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VEC are equal to 0.3%.

Life of production assets of 110.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Vectrus operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VEC is equal to 2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $117 million for Vectrus - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 11.075 million for Vectrus is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Vectrus at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Vectrus, Inc. : November 16, 2017   [Nov-16-17 12:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Vectrus, Inc.: Strong price momentum but will it sustain?   [Nov-09-17 11:18AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Vectrus posts 3Q profit   [Nov-07-17 06:30PM  Associated Press]
▶ Vectrus Inc to Host Earnings Call   [12:20PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Vectrus to report third-quarter 2017 financial results   [Oct-24-17 05:08PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Vectrus, Inc. : August 24, 2017   [Aug-24-17 04:15PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Vectrus Announces Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-08-17 04:10PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Vectrus to report second-quarter 2017 financial results   [Jul-25-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Vectrus Wins $97 Million Keesler Air Force Base Contract   [Jul-24-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Vectrus named 2017 Best for Vets Employer   [Jun-12-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Vectrus, Inc. : May 12, 2017   [May-12-17 04:38PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Vectrus, Inc.: Strong price momentum but will it sustain?   [May-11-17 02:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why Vectrus Inc Stock Surged Today   [01:27PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Vectrus posts 1Q profit   [May-09-17 06:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Vectrus to report first-quarter 2017 financial results   [Apr-25-17 05:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Vectrus Ombudsperson Wins International Compliance Award   [Apr-05-17 05:57PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Vectrus posts 4Q profit   [Mar-01-17 05:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Vectrus announces $14 million AFCAP Task Order win   [Feb-14-17 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Here is What Hedge Funds Think About Everi Holdings Inc (EVRI)   [Dec-07-16 04:39AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Vectrus announces contract modification at Maxwell AFB   [Nov-21-16 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Vectrus to report third-quarter 2016 financial results   [Oct-26-16 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Why Vectrus Inc Shares Crashed Today   [Sep-30-16 03:57PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Heres Why These Five Stocks Are on the Move Today   [12:50PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of VEC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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